Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I want him back, but I don't see a reason why we should not take a mid round flier on another TE. 

 

I don't know how much truth there is to the idea that we might cut Beasley as a cap casualty, but I simply do not see Sanders as a luxury we can afford and I would rather see Davis take his snaps. But that might mean a reduction in spread sets.

 

Running 2 TE formations would also help the O-line which, let's face it, needs that help.

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

For me it's all about consistency and if Knox follows up his 2021 campaign with a similar season in 2022 it's a no brainer you try and lock him up long term. However the biggest hurdle becomes money and he'll certainly be looking to be paid like a top 3 NFL TE.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I want him back, but I don't see a reason why we should not take a mid round flier on another TE. 

 

I don't know how much truth there is to the idea that we might cut Beasley as a cap casualty, but I simply do not see Sanders as a luxury we can afford and I would rather see Davis take his snaps. But that might mean a reduction in spread sets.

 

Running 2 TE formations would also help the O-line which, let's face it, needs that help.

 

 

 

Need a depth WR who can play inside/out.  And the TE depth was terrible this year - you have to at least push sweeney a little bit.  

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 It's supposed to be a good draft for TE.

 

Ugh. Is it? I wouldn't get your hopes up. I haven't really got deep into the Tight End class but I think from watching the consensus top 5 or 6 guys I think it is a relatively poor group. 

[ColoradoBills]

On 1/30/2022 at 6:17 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I put tight ends into 4 categories:

 

The do it all tight ends: the likes of Gronkowski, Waller and Kittle live here. Jason Witten in his prime too. 

 

The modern tight ends (i.e. they are primarily mismatch weapons but they can block and are asked to by their scheme): Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Shultz

 

The blocking tight ends (i.e. guys who are really not there to catch the ball): Lee Smith, Blake Jarwin, Noah Gray etc

 

Big Slots (not really tight ends at all): Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry etc.

 

I think Knox belongs in the "modern tight end" category but when I am ranking tight ends I am really looking at those first two groups. 

 

Thanks Gunner for trying to show people that you can't compare TEs all in one group.

I tried bringing this up last year and got laughed at.

I'll use your term "Big Slot" guys.  I don't really count them against "ranking" a true TEs production.

All it does is skews the data.

[krf139]

I’d like to see him make more of an impact outside the 20s 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks Gunner for trying to show people that you can't compare TEs all in one group.

I tried bringing this up last year and got laughed at.

I'll use your term "Big Slot" guys.  I don't really count them against "ranking" a true TEs production.

All it does is skews the data.

 

That's fair.  If you tell me who are the top "big slot" guys I'll redo my data and take them out.

[FlaFitz1]

A lot of talk about his drops - let's look at those and catch rate.

 

2019 - 10 drops on 50 targets (20%) and a catch rate of 56%

2020 - 4 drops on 44 targets (9.1%) but a catch rate of 54.5%

2021 - 4 drops on 71 targets (5.6%) and a catch rate of 69%

 

Just for comparison Kelce this past season.  Not saying Knox is Kelce - just for comparison!!

10 drops on 134 targets (7.5%) and a catch rate of 68.7%

 

Knox has improved his game both as a pass catcher and especially as a blocker.  

 

Is he a top 2 or 3 TE?  No but is he a top 10 at this point.  Absolutely.  

 

So if money is your issue remember the 10 highest paid TEs this past season were Kittle 15m, Kelce 14.3m, Andrews 14m, Henry and Jonnu Smith 12.5m, Hooper 10.5, Ertz 8.5, Pitts 8.2m, Logan Thomas 8.02m, Jimmy Graham and Gronk 8m

 

Based up his production, if Knox continues the growth he saw last year 8m is a starting point and it goes up from there.

 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

The biggest problem with Knox is that he's not a natural pass catcher which is holding Josh back.  Josh can't really use him as a safety valve.

 

I would put a transition tag on him and let him test the market.

 

If he's offered too much money, let him go.  If the money is reasonable 4-5 million, bring him back.

 

Either way you still have to go back to the draft and find your Dallas Goedert.

[ColoradoBills]

On 1/30/2022 at 6:17 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Big Slots (not really tight ends at all): Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry etc.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's fair.  If you tell me who are the top "big slot" guys I'll redo my data and take them out.

 

I would start with GunnerBill's examples.  

Gunner uses the term "big slot" which I think is a better description than the sometime used "big WR".

If these guys are never (or rarely) lined up tight to the OL then I can't see how they are true TEs.

IMO.

[dave mcbride]

On 1/30/2022 at 1:12 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

Good thread. I'd also add that you have to look a little beyond the numbers and look at what he offers physically. He's really fast for a TE and a true matchup problem.  That perspective is important, I think, because I think it may tell you more about future productivity. I'm not saying he's going to be Kelce, but he's also not going to be Scott Chandler. He's just more talented than the latter, and frankly more physically gifted than most TEs in the league.  In other words, there's real upside with him with regard to future growth.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Good thread. I'd also add that you have to look a little beyond the numbers and look at what he offers physically. He's really fast for a TE and a true matchup problem.  That perspective is important, I think, because I think it may tell you more about future productivity. I'm not saying he's going to be Kelce, but he's also not going to be Scott Chandler. He's just more talented than the latter, and frankly more physically gifted than most TEs in the league.  In other words, there's real upside with him with regard to future growth.

 

All valid points.  He is very athletically talented, and his hands are developing nicely.

Still more work to do there, and IMHO more development needed as a route runner/being physical up to his athletic potential on his routes.

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

The biggest problem with Knox is that he's not a natural pass catcher which is holding Josh back.  Josh can't really use him as a safety valve.

 

I would put a transition tag on him and let him test the market.

 

If he's offered too much money, let him go.  If the money is reasonable 4-5 million, bring him back.

 

Either way you still have to go back to the draft and find your Dallas Goedert.

$4-5M?  Lets not insult the guy.  Look at some current salaries J Smith $12M/ Jack Doyle $10/Nick Boyle $10/N  Fant 12M/T Higbee 10M/Hooper $10M

 

Spotrac puts out estimates, they give some for this years crop R Tonyan $10.8, D Schultz $12.6M.  And prices almost always go up year over year.  

 

The smart move by the Bills is not to wait.  Knox is the type of guy you want to have around, a homegrown Buffalo Bill.   Tonyan and Schultz will set the market for Knox.  Then the Bills extend Knox with upfront money and something comparable, before Knox ever hits free agency.  That's what keeping your own is all about.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All valid points.  He is very athletically talented, and his hands are developing nicely.

Still more work to do there, and IMHO more development needed as a route runner/being physical up to his athletic potential on his routes.

At the risk of comparing apples and oranges (baseball and football in this case), Knox strikes me as a player with a good FIP relative to his ERA: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/what-is-fip-era-pitching-baseball-mlb-stats-statistics-advanced-sabermetrics/d5p48p6z6us51lqbo0wvgigto. There are things he can't control, like how many passes are thrown to him and what the winds are like in Buffalo in any given game. But when called upon, he makes plays, including explosive ones. In other words, I think the trajectory points upward. 

[GreggTX]

It all comes down to price and either way, we still need to bolster the position. I'm OK with Knox as #1, but I want a much stronger TE #2. Let's keep Knox. He's good at finding the EZ.

[Freddie's Dead]

We need more Dawesome, less Dropsome.  Single-handedly cost us the Jagoffs game with 4 room-service drops.  Drop against KC didn't help.

[papazoid]

PRO: most improved player on team

 

CON: went from horrible to mediocre

 

CONCLUSION: unreliable hands, terrible blocker

[Pete]

What is the alternative?  Lee Smith lol

 

Knox was near top for TE TDs

[MAJBobby]

Re-sign him now don’t wait it will be cheaper. If you wait until 22 get ready to pay like a top 3 TE 

[Doc]

9 hours ago, GreggTX said:

It all comes down to price and either way, we still need to bolster the position. I'm OK with Knox as #1, but I want a much stronger TE #2. Let's keep Knox. He's good at finding the EZ.

 

There aren't many options available.