Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Freiermuth was 2nd round, Knox 3rd.  Teams pick in each round where they pick.

 

And yes, I’m sure the Steelers are to this day bemoaning the fact that they “wasted” a 2nd round pick on a roomie TE who caught 60 passes 7 for TDS and 36 1st downs 500 yards against 2 drops

 

good point!

 

Well, I'm sure they hope he proves to be more than a below average TE.  Considering where they picked him.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Doc

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

[QLBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Objectively, unless you cherry pick your statistics and put on homer glasses, Knox appears to slot in about 13-15th among TE

Again with the stats .. it’s stats and eye. Easy for me to see him in the 8-12 range based on how i look at it. Others just look at data and that’s your perspective. And that’s fine. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

That’s something we can all agree on 

I’ve never debated about his contract. He’s valuable to this team and in particular the QB. So as I’ve stated let’s provide a fair contract for both parties. I’m assuming he’s open to that. With his upside and JA it will be good for this team. Seems logical. 

this is a discussion about his contract and what it’s worth might be…

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

I mean there's a reason he's been a healthy scratch the back end of this season.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Warcodered said:

I mean there's a reason he's been a healthy scratch the back end of this season.

 

Yea he sucks. It isn't because he is "just a blocker." He is a terrible blocker. 

[QLBillsFan]

Correct so as I have stated I feel he’s top 10. You may not agree. Bills should offer fair contract. Clearly you don’t see that value. So don’t sign him. Then we can look for another good TE with upside. Seems simple right ? 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Again with the stats .. it’s stats and eye. Easy for me to see him in the 8-12 range based on how i look at it. Others just look at data and that’s your perspective. And that’s fine. 

 

I make you right. He is in the 8-12 range. But I do chuck Ertz and Gesicki out so they are not counted in my numbers. Tight Ends who can't (or are not asked to) block at all are not tight ends. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Again with the stats .. it’s stats and eye. Easy for me to see him in the 8-12 range based on how i look at it. Others just look at data and that’s your perspective. And that’s fine. 

 

So if you “eyeball test” Knox and feel he’s top 10, that’s fine, your perogative.  I have “eyeball” opinions on various players myself, including Knox.  

 

My point is you said “ “Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10”.  

 

That kind of certainty/generalization typically needs to have support other than “my eyes”, unless you have chops as a professional scout or some such.  

[Doc]

Right now, again, he's looking at slightly more than Hunter Henry got.  A better/healthier season next year and it's easily over $14M/year.

 

Dayum.  The Bills better draft a TE soon.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I make you right. He is in the 8-12 range. But I do chuck Ertz and Gesicki out so they are not counted in my numbers. Tight Ends who can't (or are not asked to) block at all are not tight ends. 

 

That’s a fair point.  Since I lack data on how much various TE were asked to block, I dodged the issue (and acknowledged that limitation in my OP)

[78thealltimegreat]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

Most guys who come out of BC are excellent blocking TEs he must be the exception 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

 

Sweeney saw his snap count plummet after the Jax game and was inactive 4 games at the end of the season, because he is in fact NOT a blocker. 

 

The Bills had hopes he would develop into a blocker - he has the size and frame for it - but 3 years in and that hasn’t happened.  So he got benched in favor of putting in Tommy Doyle when they wanted an extra blocker.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That’s a fair point.  Since I lack data on how much various TE were asked to block, I dodged the issue (and acknowledged that limitation in my OP)

 

I put tight ends into 4 categories:

 

The do it all tight ends: the likes of Gronkowski, Waller and Kittle live here. Jason Witten in his prime too. 

 

The modern tight ends (i.e. they are primarily mismatch weapons but they can block and are asked to by their scheme): Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Shultz

 

The blocking tight ends (i.e. guys who are really not there to catch the ball): Lee Smith, Blake Jarwin, Noah Gray etc

 

Big Slots (not really tight ends at all): Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry etc.

 

I think Knox belongs in the "modern tight end" category but when I am ranking tight ends I am really looking at those first two groups. 

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So if you “eyeball test” Knox and feel he’s top 10, that’s fine, your perogative.  I have “eyeball” opinions on various players myself, including Knox.  

 

My point is you said “ “Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10”.  

 

That kind of certainty/generalization typically needs to have support other than “my eyes”, unless you have chops as a professional scout or some such.  

Eyes is a reference that he has to be accounted for. For example passing stats undervalue JA. Significant weather and wind will always do so with his passing stats.
 

That’s my point for Knox vs Schultz. Not a scout but yes watching the tape and not just combine numbers undervalue Schultz. But in game situations he’s good at what he does but clearly not as explosive as Knox. 

[GETTOTHE50]

He’s a top 10 TE in the league right now.

 

Kittle, Kelce, The raiders TE, Goonkowski, and the Atlanta TE are the only ones who are consistently better. 
 

His drops are rough though

[cisco2403]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I put tight ends into 4 categories:

 

The do it all tight ends: the likes of Gronkowski, Waller and Kittle live here. Jason Witten in his prime too. 

 

The modern tight ends (i.e. they are primarily mismatch weapons but they can block and are asked to by their scheme): Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Shultz

 

The blocking tight ends (i.e. guys who are really not there to catch the ball): Lee Smith, Blake Jarwin, Noah Gray etc

 

Big Slots (not really tight ends at all): Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry etc.

 

I think Knox belongs in the "modern tight end" category but when I am ranking tight ends I am really looking at those first two groups. 

Tyler Higbee needs to be included in your modern group. IMO, he is also better than Knox.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Eyes is a reference that he has to be accounted for. For example passing stats undervalue JA. Significant weather and wind will always do so with his passing stats.
 

That’s my point for Knox vs Schultz. Not a scout but yes watching the tape and not just combine numbers undervalue Schultz. But in game situations he’s good at what he does but clearly not as explosive as Knox. 

 

And I have no argument with any of that.  My point is if you want to call that “objective” or assert that “any other objective fan must agree”, you’re moving beyond what can truly be described as “objective”, and you’re trying to lay claim to a universality that just doesn’t belong to eyeball scouting.

 

 

4 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

He’s a top 10 TE in the league right now.

 

Kittle, Kelce, The raiders TE, Goonkowski, and the Atlanta TE are the only ones who are consistently better. 
 

His drops are rough though

 

And see, this is where relying on eyes and memory can let you down.  I don’t see how anyone could omit Andrews from an assessment of top TE right now, for example.

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

Amen.  Sweeney is a bum.  Good riddance 🙏🏻 

[QLBillsFan]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And I have no argument with any of that.  My point is if you want to call that “objective” or assert that “any other objective fan must agree”, you’re moving beyond what can truly be described as “objective”, and you’re trying to lay claim to a universality that just doesn’t belong to eyeball scouting.

 

 

That’s fine. I’ll give you that. Good points made by you and Mr Weo..