Gunner's 2022 Mock Draft (v3 and FINAL - p.17!!)

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Is a clean tear of his ACL really going to drop him from top 10 to late first?

 

Do we have any recent examples of kids tearing their ACL late in the college season and how it affected their draft stock?

 

Thing is I don't think he was a lock for the top 10 before. This is a mixed up receiver group. 

[thunderingsquid]

Scheme fit, we need an explosive slot guy with YAC potential.

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

This is my fear as well. McD is a defensive guy and unless he takes ownership of the 13 second debacle, I’ll bet he will try to convince Beane he needs more playmakers on defense. Meanwhile, the offense will have to settle for projects and mid rounders that they hope will pan out. 

 

We do need playmakers on defense, especially at DE. But it's hard to find those late in the 1st round and any player we draft at that range will not be an immediate game changing player this year. I'm hoping Beane signs an impact pass rusher. I would even take Clowney. Then we just have to hope Rousseau takes a big step. I like the idea of taking an explosive playmaker like Williams or Olave because they can step right into the offense and have an impact in year one.

[HIT BY SPIKES]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

We only have two of our starting 5 WRs under contract next year if Beasley doesn’t accept a restructure and we only have 1 pass catching te the lines can be added in rounds 3 and 4 we need to get a Josh a weapon or two early in this draft 

Totally agree!! And we only have real 1 TE on the roster we need another one of those too 

Yet another wrong thinking fan that thinks any fat guys can be put on the OL.  Can you please recruit a couple for us the next time you are at Duff's?

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

This shows you know nothing about drafting in the nfl.  Zilch sir

Try me Kool guy.

 

What do you know?

 

Shall we draft another really fast guy?

 

Oh, oh another "lockdown corner"?

 

How about we simply protect our $250M investment and build an OL that we can actually run behind rather than being met 2 yards behind the OL.

 

P.S.:  Mom's calling you to come from the basement for supper.

 

 

[LyndonvilleBill]

13 minutes ago, thunderingsquid said:

Scheme fit, we need an explosive slot guy with YAC potential.

 

Maybe check out Skye Moore.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Is a clean tear of his ACL really going to drop him from top 10 to late first?

 

Do we have any recent examples of kids tearing their ACL late in the college season and how it affected their draft stock?

 

Jeffrey Simmons was a top 10 lock before tearing his ACL while preparing for the NFL draft. He ended up falling to 19 and the Titans certainly don't regret that pick. I think Simmons was considered a better prospect than Williams is so I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it to 25.

[ExWNYer]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

25 – Buffalo Bills – Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

If Williams had not suffered an ACL tear in the National Championship game then I suspect there was very little chance of him dropping to this spot. The Bills more than most teams could afford to wait if Williams is not ready to contribute week 1. He was clocked in the 4.3s before his injury this season. If the Bills are confident he will retain that game breaking speed he would be a steal here.

 

Jameson Williams is a special talent with the speed that Beane should covet and I'd love for him to fall to the Bills at 25. His injury is the only reason why they would even have a chance to grab him there. I'm more worried that Olave goes earlier than you projected and New England* takes Williams at 21. I would also not be surprised if Beane goes DE or speedy CB at 25, if the board falls his way. I know that won't be popular with many (especially if it's DE) but, despite their investments over the last couple of seasons on the DL, there will be turnover with aging vets.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

I know we need speed, but is this kid capable of winning jump balls and being physical?

 

From what I've read on him, physicality and contested catch ability are weaknesses. But in the modern NFL I think those traits are becoming less valuable. When DBs could interfere with WRs more, you needed total alphas at WR that could out-muscle everyone else on the field. Nowadays it is more valuable to have a WR that can just run past everyone. Separation and speed are more consistent winning traits than contested catch ability. And it adds an element we don't have right now.

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by HappyDays

[qwksilver]

Daniel Jeremiah has Williams going to the Chiefs in his mock. I'd prefer we take him than having to play against him and Hill and Kelce in the playoffs for years. 

 

Nice work as always Gunner! Can't wait to see the 2nd round added.

 

Without the QBs being slotted in the top 10 this year, we'll get to see which mock drafts have any value....

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I just don't see a need at the WR position. Depends on the Bills board and his medical evaluation. 

 

At the very least slot WR is a need. Even if you assume Beasley is back he's another year older and in the final year of his contract. Williams can play slot and get some of those manufactured touches that we give to McKenzie right now. We also have needed a WR that can take the top off the defense since John Brown fell off a cliff in 2020. Same goes a WR that gives us YAC. Williams has the advantage of filling all of those needs in a single player.

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by HappyDays

[Comebackkid]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Why the heck can’t people see this? But, but, but…we need to keep drafting defense to stop Mahomes!!!!

they do say the best offense is a good defense.   One guy in the KC steps up and makes a play on D on any of the last Kc drives and  the outcome is totally different.   

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Appreciate the effort and the detail. Excellent work.

So how different would it be taking a WR with an ACL tear than it was taking McGahee?

I appreciate the fact that his value would drop and it would be an intriguing pick. I'd be ok with it if they moved down and picked him in the 2nd round and added another 2nd round pick. 

Other than that scenario this would be about the worst thing Beane could do. He has to be all-in to win a SB next year.  Trade for a proven veteran OL, a pass rusher,  draft a CB#2, or even a 1-tech DT. All of those positions help you win now. Not an injured WR.

[RyanC883]

I hate your mock.  😜 I want the DB from Clemson or Cincy to fall to us, or Center from Iowa.   

 

Question: who do we take here if the staff is not convinced on the Wr’s ability to recover?  

[Comebackkid]

44 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

We do need playmakers on defense, especially at DE. But it's hard to find those late in the 1st round and any player we draft at that range will not be an immediate game changing player this year. I'm hoping Beane signs an impact pass rusher. I would even take Clowney. Then we just have to hope Rousseau takes a big step. I like the idea of taking an explosive playmaker like Williams or Olave because they can step right into the offense and have an impact in year one.

we definitely need one difference maker that can step in and change the course of a game.   high upside is nice but id really rather not wait 2-3 years to find out if a guy is going to pan out.   we dont have that time to waste right now.  

[RyanC883]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Appreciate the effort and the detail. Excellent work.

So how different would it be taking a WR with an ACL tear than it was taking McGahee?

I appreciate the fact that his value would drop and it would be an intriguing pick. I'd be ok with it if they moved down and picked him in the 2nd round and added another 2nd round pick. 

Other than that scenario this would be about the worst thing Beane could do. He has to be all-in to win a SB next year.  Trade for a proven veteran OL, a pass rusher,  draft a CB#2, or even a 1-tech DT. All of those positions help you win now. Not an injured WR.

 

I think the only option instant impact wise here is to trade the pick for Lb or DL. All CB’s gone.  

[N.Y. Orangeman]

@GunnerBill  Great post.  Who are you favorite prospects on day 2/3 to add/fill existing holes?

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Other than that scenario this would be about the worst thing Beane could do. He has to be all-in to win a SB next year.  Trade for a proven veteran OL, a pass rusher,  draft a CB#2, or even a 1-tech DT. All of those positions help you win now. Not an injured WR.

 

Williams will be fully recovered by the playoffs which is when the Bills season officially starts for the next decade. We have the luxury of being able to be patient with his recovery.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Williams will be fully recovered by the playoffs which is when the Bills season officially starts for the next decade. We have the luxury of being able to be patient with his recovery.

 

The Bills are almost uniquely positioned to draft him and be patient. Tennessee did it with Simmons and Farley. They could do it again if he reaches them. And then obviously the Chiefs. Almost everyone else would need him to contribute early.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

At the very least slot WR is a need. Even if you assume Beasley is back he's another year older and in the final year of his contract. Williams can play slot and get some of those manufactured touches that we give to McKenzie right now. We also have needed a WR that can take the top off the defense since John Brown fell off a cliff in 2020. Same goes a WR that gives us YAC. Williams has the advantage of filling all of those needs in a single player.

 

 

 

I agree in principle with this take..........but I am quite certain they aren't taking a $7.6M cap hit to keep Cole Beasley around next season.   I could be wrong.........remember that Beane ate $8M that he could have saved by cutting Trent Murphy at the end of TC in 2020,  so he's made very dubious cap decisions like that before.    But they are just so up against the cap this time I think Beasley would be a huge luxury keep because of his on-field decline alone, even if his choices/antics weren't factored in .

 

But what they really miss about John Brown is that he was the only player they had who could catch a screen pass flat footed at the LOS and burst past the defense for a long play/TD.    He did it several times with the Bills.   Williams, hopefully in a short time, could give them that back......plus signficantly more RAC ability in general........all in a full sized NFL receiver.

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Just Tre if memory serves me right…… But it is a hole with Tres injury and Wallace most likely gone…..they’ve gone defense in the first round in every draft they’ve had here. 
 

I want them to prioritize offense throughout most of the draft.  

The point is that they have not prioritized via the draft or any real substantive value in FA at the DB spot, they have used caste offs, aging vets, low draft picks and UFA’s to fill in the roster.   Grant it, there is a question mark of when Tre will return and with Levi most likely heading off for bigger bucks, so there is more uncertainty this year at that spot than in years past.  
 

I as well want to spend our draft capital on the offensive skilled positions and hopefully they go into the season with Dane and Tre and draft a couple early mid to mid rounders on DB’s and develop them.