If Your Super Bowl Window Closes When You Pay Your Superstar QB Big Bucks, Why Do You Pay Your Superstar QB Big Bucks?

[CincyBillsFan]

Another back channel way to take a shot at Allen.  Will it ever end? 

 

I don't think people realize how much the CAP is going to rise over the next 5 ears.  Actually it's going to explode with Amazon AND Apple both saying that acquiring live sporting events is their NUMBER ONE priority. And I don't think they're talking about Beach Volleyball. ONLY the NFL is worth landing.  The upcoming NFL TV bidding wars are going to be epic.

 

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

It comes down to hitting on picks and cheap FA that out perform their contracts. The cheifs have to pay mahomes yes, but they just hit an absolute home run on Humphries and looking the same for Bolton. Two guys they get to pay pennies for the next 4 years, that's what championship teams do.

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Another back channel way to take a shot at Allen.  Will it ever end? 

 

I don't think people realize how much the CAP is going to rise over the next 5 ears.  Actually it's going to explode with Amazon AND Apple both saying that acquiring live sporting events is their NUMBER ONE priority. And I don't think they're talking about Beach Volleyball. ONLY the NFL is worth landing.  The upcoming NFL TV bidding wars are going to be epic.

 

 

I've been waiting too many years for this. Just let me pay for a "bills app" that gives me all live games and everything bills for a monthly fee.

[TH3]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

the current list of the top 10 paid QBs includes Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz.   Paying too much for QBs is not a good thing as it leaves teams less room to build rest of team. Years back Joe Flacco was one of the highest paid QBs and his contract was an albatross for the Ravens since they became uncompetitive .

Maybe those qbs aren’t good

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

This is a semi-serious thread BUT so many posters in numerous threads have lamented the fact that the Bills' Super Bowl window will close rapidly once Allen's new contact kicks in, it had me wondering if there is any analytics behind that assumption.  I know NE was successful for a long time because Brady was willing to be grossly underpaid.  Seattle hasn't done all that much after paying Wilson.  On the other hand, GB has posted great regular season records (but have choked in the playoffs) with Rogers being paid a ton.  

 

When a QB plays like Mahones or Allen, you really don't have an option other than to pay them, do you?  Can you imagine KC or BUFF putting Mahones or Allen on the trade block?  Inconceivable.  

 

In the AFC, in a couple of years, KC, BUFF, LA, CIN and maybe BALT will ALL be operating with QB's making big bucks.  Does that mean some team without those QB's will be in the Super Bowl?

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

 

it’s starts closing but isn’t shut. 
 

if you don’t pay them it is fully closed and you are hoping to reopen it

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

the current list of the top 10 paid QBs includes Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz.   Paying too much for QBs is not a good thing as it leaves teams less room to build rest of team. Years back Joe Flacco was one of the highest paid QBs and his contract was an albatross for the Ravens since they became uncompetitive .

With the exception of Wilson paying that group of QB's big bucks is a problem. The only way Allen's contract is a problem is if you think that he is a newer version of Wentz, Flaco or Cousins.  I don't and so among the things I worry about as a Bills fan this is at the bottom of the list.

[frostbitmic]

You pay whatever it takes to keep a top 5 QB, no other position matters that much.

 

You need to draft well every year so you can get rid of some higher priced and or aging veterans every year.

 

Protecting your QB investment should also be job #1.

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Beerball said:

It's a conundrum st pete, that's for sure.  I truly believe that one of the reason Allen was put into harms way so often was because the brass understand how important it is to get that SB win before all the money goes to the QB.  This isn't news, but a big reason NE was able to maintain their mastery over the NFL was because Brady never demanded "what he was worth." 

 

Brady got money other ways which is why he was willing to accept less.

[eball]

The premise of the thread is incorrect. You have to pay your QB and then the good GMs build around that number.

 

It ain’t rocket surgery. 

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

the current list of the top 10 paid QBs includes Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz.   Paying too much for QBs is not a good thing as it leaves teams less room to build rest of team. Years back Joe Flacco was one of the highest paid QBs and his contract was an albatross for the Ravens since they became uncompetitive .

The problem is that of the 5 QBs you mention, only Wilson is worth the money.  Goff & Wentz are grossly overpaid & the teams that signed them to the deals were glad to get rid of them & put the rest of the contract on another team's payroll.  Cousins has always looked better on a stat sheet than on the field, he's just an average QB if you watch him instead of looking at a piece of paper, Ryan is overpaid based on past accomplishments and is too old & worn down to be a top 10 salaried player.  

 

The big problem is teams are paying non-superstars superstar money.  Of the current group of young QBs, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow & possibly Herbert are worth paying.  Anyone else will be overpaid.  Just look at Baltimore & Cleveland who enter this offseason with young QBs on their 5th year option.  Cleveland has no idea what to do with Baker Mayfield who so far has had an up & down career.  If 2022 is up, they have to pay him.  If 2022 is down they have a giant hole at QB if they decide to move on.  Baltimore is in an even worse spot.  Lamar Jackson is good enough that they have to pay him eventually.  The problem is he has regressed since his outstanding sophomore season. Because he is so popular among certain media & fans, it would be a PR nightmare not to pay him big bucks.  He's worth it if you get the 2019 version of Lamar.  If you get the injured & sick 2021 version you're throwing big bucks down the drain while killing your salary cap at the same time.  

[Mango]

It doesn’t close the window. It’s definitely still open a crack. But if you don’t pay the guy, you seal it with blocked glass. 
 

It’s not the QB pay that does it so much as the margin for error in the draft is narrow. If you can’t find key contributors regularly in the draft, you’ll have to over pay in FA. 
 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, billsherd said:

I'm not worried about that, yes it won't be easy i would rather have a very good QB that I'm paying big bucks to than be in qb purgatory. With Allen I'm not worried as he will do whatever he can too restructure to win. 

And this is what's going to happen. Our window officially swung wide open last year. And depending on contract restructuring and hitting on draft picks,  I expect it to stay open till Josh is around 37-38.  The team we have to beat over the next several years is KC and they're in the same boat as us contract wise. So it's really going to come down to who has better and more contract friendly players around the QB.

[HOUSE]

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, TH3 said:

Really….has this actually happened ….all the top QBs make the playoffs and the SB every year 

That’s actually not accurate.  Brees for example struggled to make the playoffs for a while in NO for example.  Same for guys like Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Stafford, and Wilson.

 

And guys like Goff, Foles, and young QBs on rookie deals still have made a lot of recent SBs the past 10 years.  

[Shaw66]

A friend of mine sent me a link to some article glorifying what the author said was the Rams' approach.   It was based on the fact that they do their homework on the later rounds, and the result was they got Cooper Kupp in the third round.   The article made it sound like they have some kind of geniuses running the organization with a system that no one else was smart enough to figure out, part of the system being regularly trading out of the first round to stockpile later picks, where you find cheap value. 

 

The more I read it, the more I concluded it was nonsense, for a couple of reasons.   First, if they were so brilliant to figure out Cooper Kupp was a superstar, they were pretty stupid to risk losing him before they picked in the third round.   If they knew who Kupp would become, why didn't they take him in the second round?

 

Second, every team knows the value of the later picks, for exactly the reasons discussed in this thread.   All you have to do is get out your calculator and do the math.  You need 22 talented players to fill out a starting lineup, plus 23 others (assuming ZERO injuries for the entire season).  With the salary cap, you can't get all the talent you need in the veteran free agent market, so you MUST get talent out of the draft and make it useful.  It's the only place you can find cheap talent.   The Rams aren't the only team to figure that out. 

 

Third, you have to have a QB.   The Rams did exactly what every other team does - they tried to find a franchise QB at the top of the draft when they drafted Goff.   They then discovered, exactly as happens to a lot of teams who do that, that Goff wasn't the answer.  So where are they now?   They're in the position of trying to fill in the most important spot on the field with SOMEONE.   They mortgaged their draft future a bit to get Stafford.  They are trying to convince themselves that a number one overall pick can be their franchise guy, even though he never could do it in Detroit.  Yes, you can tell me that Detroit is a dysfunctional franchise, but you can't tell me that NONE of the failures of that franchise over the past 13 years have anything to do with their quarterback.   If Matt Stafford were Aaron Rodgers, we would have seen it by now.  

 

Life in the NFL has been the same since  Bill Walsh transformed the 49ers with Montana and Young.  If you want to win consistently in the NFL, you need a great QB.  End of story.   There are at any given time three or four or six or seven great quarterbacks.   If you've got one, you keep him.   If you've got one who's close but not there (think Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford), you probably fall into the trap of keeping him and hoping he take the next step.   That's a mistake; all great quarterbacks need time to develop and grow, but the kernel of their greatness shows early in their careers.   Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Montana, Aikman, Kelly, Marino, Mahomes, Allen.   All of them did things early in their careers as starters in the NFL to make people take notice.  

 

If you see that greatness in your quarterback, you pay him.  If you don't see the greatness, you may as well move on.   Good luck to the Rams, but all they're doing is hoping that they can get everything to fall together, including a career year out of Stafford.  

 

The Bills are in the place that every coach and GM wants to be.  

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

And this is what's going to happen. Our window officially swung wide open last year. And depending on contract restructuring and hitting on draft picks,  I expect it to stay open till Josh is around 37-38.  The team we have to beat over the next several years is KC and they're in the same boat as us contract wise. So it's really going to come down to who has better and more contract friendly players around the QB.

This is correct until you get to the end.   It's going to come down to who has more creative coaches and GMs.  The differences between the talent that they have on their rosters below the top five or six high-paid guys will be minimal.  They'll each hit on some draft choices and miss on others, but that will happen because the coaches succeed or fail integrating their young talent into the team.   That's how Belichick succeeded for two decades, and that's what McDermott is trying to do.  

[TheBrownBear]

Yeah, let's trade Josh.  Free up space for some good linebackers and a great running back and we can go 7-9 for 17 years.  JK.

 

People like to point to Russell Wilson's struggles over the last 1.5 seasons or whatever, but the truth is a truly elite HOF QB gives you the best chance of making the playoffs and winning SBs, year over year.  The really great ones (Brady, Rodgers, Manning, etc.) are in the picture pretty much every year, regardless of who they had around them.  The elite QB contract makes it tougher to build a dominant team from top to bottom, but at least you've already got the most important piece in place.  Then whatever resources you have left should be devoted to your defense and protecting your prized asset.  You're essentially paying your stud QB to elevate the average (or rookie contract) skill position players around him (See Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis).

Edited January 29, 2022 by TheBrownBear

[BillsFanSD]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

the current list of the top 10 paid QBs includes Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz.   Paying too much for QBs is not a good thing as it leaves teams less room to build rest of team. Years back Joe Flacco was one of the highest paid QBs and his contract was an albatross for the Ravens since they became uncompetitive .

With the possible exception of Russell Wilson, those QBs are all just overpaid.  There's nothing wrong with Josh Allen getting Josh Allen money, but there would be a lot wrong with Kirk Cousins getting Josh Allen money.  (I know Cousins isn't paid that much -- you get the point).

[Success]

This relates to new conventional wisdom that I completely disagree with.  

 

I've heard countless times on twitter & elsewhere that you "have" to win a SB while your QB is on his rookie contract, or it's over.  Your window starts to close as soon as soon as you have to pay him.

 

Really?  So, only QB's on their rookie contract have ever won a SB?

 

If you manage the cap well, and draft well, your window can stay open as long as you have a great QB.

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

the current list of the top 10 paid QBs includes Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz.   Paying too much for QBs is not a good thing as it leaves teams less room to build rest of team. Years back Joe Flacco was one of the highest paid QBs and his contract was an albatross for the Ravens since they became uncompetitive .

True, these qb Contracts have crippled their franchises in many ways but other than maybe wilson a few years ago those qbs aren't in the same conversation as the teir of Allen, mahomes, Rodgers. Mahomes and Rodgers have established themselves as once in a lifetime talents, its looking like josh is pretty much there as well.

The qbs listed here are more the category of the "we probably can't find better so let's surround him with talent" but you have to pay them a bloated contract cuz some other starving team will. And thats when franchises fall into a hole.

Many of my friends are raiders fans, and I've always told them carr is the downfall of the raiders, hes a great guy and a solid qb. But he's that perfect amount of just good enough but not good enough, and he will always command a healthy contract that will take money from the cap thats needed else where but will never have the mahomes/allen factor.

[QCity]

It doesn't.

[st pete gogolak]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Another back channel way to take a shot at Allen.  Will it ever end? 

 

I don't think people realize how much the CAP is going to rise over the next 5 ears.  Actually it's going to explode with Amazon AND Apple both saying that acquiring live sporting events is their NUMBER ONE priority. And I don't think they're talking about Beach Volleyball. ONLY the NFL is worth landing.  The upcoming NFL TV bidding wars are going to be epic.

 

 

Honestly, this has nothing to do with Allen, certainly not a cheap shot.  My personal opinion, when you have an upper echelon QB (Mahones, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Rogers) you pay them and it's up to your GM to work the cap to make the team Super Bowl competitive.  It's when you have a tweener (Prescott, L. Jackson) that it becomes difficult.  You don't give big money to a Kirk Cousins or Mayfield.  I can see the Browns letting Mayfield play out fifth year option on prove it basis.