If Your Super Bowl Window Closes When You Pay Your Superstar QB Big Bucks, Why Do You Pay Your Superstar QB Big Bucks?

[st pete gogolak]

This is a semi-serious thread BUT so many posters in numerous threads have lamented the fact that the Bills' Super Bowl window will close rapidly once Allen's new contact kicks in, it had me wondering if there is any analytics behind that assumption.  I know NE was successful for a long time because Brady was willing to be grossly underpaid.  Seattle hasn't done all that much after paying Wilson.  On the other hand, GB has posted great regular season records (but have choked in the playoffs) with Rogers being paid a ton.  

 

When a QB plays like Mahones or Allen, you really don't have an option other than to pay them, do you?  Can you imagine KC or BUFF putting Mahones or Allen on the trade block?  Inconceivable.  

 

In the AFC, in a couple of years, KC, BUFF, LA, CIN and maybe BALT will ALL be operating with QB's making big bucks.  Does that mean some team without those QB's will be in the Super Bowl?

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

[Doc]

It definitely makes it harder.  That's why, while I understood it, I was disappointed Josh took the maximum deal.

[Slack_in_MA]

Doesn't it come down to the QB's willingness to restructure to free up $ for the rest of the roster, a la what Brady did multiple times (I think)?

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/tom-brady-contract-discounts-patriots-bargain-2018-7

Edited January 29, 2022 by Slack_in_MA

[CoudyBills]

All that big money qb talk is from the old NFL where the running backs made big money.  Doesn't pertain to the nfl at all.  Moving along...

[billsherd]

I'm not worried about that, yes it won't be easy i would rather have a very good QB that I'm paying big bucks to than be in qb purgatory. With Allen I'm not worried as he will do whatever he can too restructure to win. 

Edited January 29, 2022 by billsherd

[TH3]

Really….has this actually happened ….all the top QBs make the playoffs and the SB every year 

[TBBills]

 It's lie started by people that don't know how to manipulate the cap properly. 

If I was you I would stop worrying about what idiots like that say. Beane already had said when Josh signed the contract was more team friendly then most would see.

Edited January 29, 2022 by TBBills

[Sweats]

Its the way it is, bro.........you gotta pay your star players the big bucks and hope it pays dividends.

[Niagara Dude]

13 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

This is a semi-serious thread BUT so many posters in numerous threads have lamented the fact that the Bills' Super Bowl window will close rapidly once Allen's new contact kicks in, it had me wondering if there is any analytics behind that assumption.  I know NE was successful for a long time because Brady was willing to be grossly underpaid.  Seattle hasn't done all that much after paying Wilson.  On the other hand, GB has posted great regular season records (but have choked in the playoffs) with Rogers being paid a ton.  

 

When a QB plays like Mahones or Allen, you really don't have an option other than to pay them, do you?  Can you imagine KC or BUFF putting Mahones or Allen on the trade block?  Inconceivable.  

 

In the AFC, in a couple of years, KC, BUFF, LA, CIN and maybe BALT will ALL be operating with QB's making big bucks.  Does that mean some team without those QB's will be in the Super Bowl?

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

Brady final years with Pats and his last two seasons with the Bucs he worked our his salary & cap number  to be much lower than top QB'S in this league.  He knows you need money to fill out the roster and Rogers is a perfect example of that.  

Edited January 29, 2022 by Niagara Dude
spelling

[zow2]

From what i see, the best QBs (who make the most $) are the ones in the playoff mix year in and year out. 

[prissythecat]

12 minutes ago, zow2 said:

From what i see, the best QBs (who make the most $) are the ones in the playoff mix year in and year out. 

the current list of the top 10 paid QBs includes Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz.   Paying too much for QBs is not a good thing as it leaves teams less room to build rest of team. Years back Joe Flacco was one of the highest paid QBs and his contract was an albatross for the Ravens since they became uncompetitive .

[klos63]

New TV contract will be kicking in soon. Cap will grow considerably over the years. In 3 years , Allen's contract won't be as large a percentage of our future cap space as when he first signed it.

[Niagara Dude]

Below are the top cap numbers for the Chiefs in 2022,  they will have around  $14,516,959 in cap space with 39 players under contract for next season.  The two that really make no sense is Clark at over $26 million and then only paying Kelce less than 9mllion. Mahomes's cap is around 36 million

 

End of the day the Chiefs have drafted well and are able to fill out their roster with draft picks and lower level free agent signings. They just signed two weeks ago CB Damon Arnette who was the 19th overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. 

 

Just to give a comparison, the Bills are right now about 1.2 million over the cap with 52 players under contract for next season.  That was because Beane signed players this week to future contracts

 

 

Frank Clark cap number= $26,300,000

 

Tyreek Hill$ cap number=$20,685,000

 

Anthony Hitchens cap number=$12,664,926

 

Chris Jones cap number= $29,415,666

 

Travis Kelce cap=8,855,882

 

Patrick Mahomes Cap =$35,793,381

 

Joe Thuney Cap number 17,800,000

 

Harrison Butker cap number =$4,194,118

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire cap number= $2,951,339

 

Mecole Hardman cap number =$4,399,191

Edited January 29, 2022 by Niagara Dude
spelling

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

This is a semi-serious thread BUT so many posters in numerous threads have lamented the fact that the Bills' Super Bowl window will close rapidly once Allen's new contact kicks in, it had me wondering if there is any analytics behind that assumption.  I know NE was successful for a long time because Brady was willing to be grossly underpaid.  Seattle hasn't done all that much after paying Wilson.  On the other hand, GB has posted great regular season records (but have choked in the playoffs) with Rogers being paid a ton.  

 

When a QB plays like Mahones or Allen, you really don't have an option other than to pay them, do you?  Can you imagine KC or BUFF putting Mahones or Allen on the trade block?  Inconceivable.  

 

In the AFC, in a couple of years, KC, BUFF, LA, CIN and maybe BALT will ALL be operating with QB's making big bucks.  Does that mean some team without those QB's will be in the Super Bowl?

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

 

I think someone ought to tell Reid and Mahomes their Superbowl Window is closed, because they both appear to have their heads stuck out the window as they drive along, with their ears flapping, enjoying the breeze.

 

The Saints hired Brees in for the big bucks and won a superbowl, and have been a very successful team for a long time though they never went back.  I thought they were "gone" in 2014-2016, which brings up a point - it wasn't just Brees at that point, they had spent the big bucks on a bunch of players who didn't deliver as promised (Jairus who?).

 

So I think when a team's window closes, it's not just on the QB's contract, it's the rest of the roster.

[Shaw66]

42 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

 

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

We saw what it's like when you don't have a QB who commands big bucks.   We called it "the drought."   

 

There is no choice.  When you have Josh Allen, you pay him and you manage the rest of your roster as well as you can.  

 

QB is the only position that matters.  You spend whatever it takes to get and keep a star QB.   It's a fool's game to save money on a QB so that you can spend it on positions that, relatively speaking, don't matter. 

[Niagara Dude]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think someone ought to tell Reid and Mahomes their Superbowl Window is closed, because they both appear to have their heads stuck out the window as they drive along, with their ears flapping, enjoying the breeze.

 

The Saints hired Brees in for the big bucks and won a superbowl, and have been a very successful team for a long time though they never went back.  I thought they were "gone" in 2014-2016, which brings up a point - it wasn't just Brees at that point, they had spent the big bucks on a bunch of players who didn't deliver as promised (Jairus who?).

 

So I think when a team's window closes, it's not just on the QB's contract, it's the rest of the roster.

Drafting and hitting on some late picks is going be very important and spending your money wiser on other players.  When you loot at the Chiefs they have Frank Clark coming in at 26 million and Jones near 30 million.  I really like Jones but how much does Clark give them?

 

Right now Beane is going to need to cut or rework some contracts because we have no cap space and Allen's cap number is only 16 million for next season. He is going to have a lot of tough decisions to make on guys like Star who has a 9 million cap number,  Klein who has around 6 million cap number, Morse who comes in at 11.2 million cap number,  Beasley comes in at 7.6 million cap number.  I would not be surprised to see him rework deals for Poyer/Hyde and Milano who all come in around 10 million cap number. You still need to resign Wallace and maybe Mackenzie along with draft picks so plenty of work to create needed cap space

[Sharky7337]

Last 18 superbowls involved one of 4 things: 

 

Tom Brady, Peyton manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or the 49ers.

 

So unless your the 49ers you pay.

 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

This is a semi-serious thread BUT so many posters in numerous threads have lamented the fact that the Bills' Super Bowl window will close rapidly once Allen's new contact kicks in, it had me wondering if there is any analytics behind that assumption.  I know NE was successful for a long time because Brady was willing to be grossly underpaid.  Seattle hasn't done all that much after paying Wilson.  On the other hand, GB has posted great regular season records (but have choked in the playoffs) with Rogers being paid a ton.  

 

When a QB plays like Mahones or Allen, you really don't have an option other than to pay them, do you?  Can you imagine KC or BUFF putting Mahones or Allen on the trade block?  Inconceivable.  

 

In the AFC, in a couple of years, KC, BUFF, LA, CIN and maybe BALT will ALL be operating with QB's making big bucks.  Does that mean some team without those QB's will be in the Super Bowl?

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

If you don’t pay these guys another team will and then if you trade them you run the risk of trying to hit in a college kid that hasn’t played a down in the NfL

[Beerball]

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

This is a semi-serious thread BUT so many posters in numerous threads have lamented the fact that the Bills' Super Bowl window will close rapidly once Allen's new contact kicks in, it had me wondering if there is any analytics behind that assumption.  I know NE was successful for a long time because Brady was willing to be grossly underpaid.  Seattle hasn't done all that much after paying Wilson.  On the other hand, GB has posted great regular season records (but have choked in the playoffs) with Rogers being paid a ton.  

 

When a QB plays like Mahones or Allen, you really don't have an option other than to pay them, do you?  Can you imagine KC or BUFF putting Mahones or Allen on the trade block?  Inconceivable.  

 

In the AFC, in a couple of years, KC, BUFF, LA, CIN and maybe BALT will ALL be operating with QB's making big bucks.  Does that mean some team without those QB's will be in the Super Bowl?

 

Just curious what people think about the topic.

It's a conundrum st pete, that's for sure.  I truly believe that one of the reason Allen was put into harms way so often was because the brass understand how important it is to get that SB win before all the money goes to the QB.  This isn't news, but a big reason NE was able to maintain their mastery over the NFL was because Brady never demanded "what he was worth." 

 

Now that Allen is in his second contract I'm interested to see if the offensive approach changes. If it doesn't Joshy will be Cam Newton before we know it (beaten and washed up). Newton had nowhere near the QB talent as Allen but that's immaterial.  We know that RBs have a short shelf life. Why? Same thing with Newton and same with Allen if the team's approach doesn't change.

[Mr. WEO]

there is not question you pay a top3 QB whatever it takes on his second contract.

 

If Josh goes, this team is done.  He IS the team.  The only irreplaceable player.  If he was gone....another team would have paid him the same money or more.

 

Acknowledging this obvious truth, the OP still asks the question. 

 

Why even ask? There is no logical alternative.