2023 Buffalo Bills Comp. Pick Move?

[BuffalothruMyVeins]

I did a quick search and didn't see anything about this topic, so I hope I'm not rehashing anything...

 

It just came to my mind that, though we aren't in line to lose any STARS in FA, there are guys there who could get a nice yearly rate on the open market. We have limited salary cap space (though this can be expanded somewhat with cuts and restructures, I don't see Beane going full Madden franchise mode and hacking (Haacking?) meaningful players off the roster for the sake of savings.

 

I think the scenario we find ourselves in could REALLY be used to our advantage by making shrewd, calculated moves to ensure we receive Compensatory Picks for the guys who might be walking out of the building. 

 

Here are our FA guys, that I believe would factor into this:

 

Jerry Hughes

Mario Addison

Mitchell Trubitsky 

Levi Wallace

Isaiah McKenzie

Harrison Phillips

 

I believe for floor for getting the lowest level of comp pick I've seen sits around $3.25M/yr deal, for a 7th round pick, and then higher values would net higher comp picks all the way up to a maximum of a 3rd round pick.

 

I will address these players in order. Hughes and Addison are likely to be done. Veteran pass rushers at their age aren't likely to receive a significant annual value contract, but I can see one of these two getting a deal over the self-proclaimed threshold of $3.25M (imo more likely Hughes than Addison). This would net us a 7th round pick.

 

We all know QBs receive inflated contracts, so even though the Bills got Trubitsky on a low value deal, I think Mitch is likely to go somewhere this year with a promise to compete for a starting spot. With that promise would come an appropriate payday, which could run from $8M-$12M. This type of contract would net us possibly a 5th or 4th round pick.

 

I just listened to the Howard and Jeremy show, and they had the guy who runs Spotrac on. He mentioned that Levi Wallace would likely be looking at a deal around $10M/year. I think that's too rich for the Bills, so he would likely get that money elsewhere. This would likely net us around a 4th round pick... outside chance it's a 5th rounder. 

 

In that same interview, he mentioned a possible value for McKenzie of around $4M-$5M. That would net us a 6th round pick.

 

Finally, also in that interview, he said Phillips would be about a $5M/year player, maybe a little less if he takes a little less to come back to Buffalo. This would be about a 6th round pick.

 

What also needs to be considered, too, is that if Frazier gets hired somewhere, his loss would net us a 3rd round pick this year AND a 3rd round pick next year, as hiring of minority coaches to head coach rewards their previous teams.

 

I feel like we are likely to re-sign Phillips, and McKenzie feels kinda 50-50, so let's just for the sake of argument say we don't re-sign him. This could set us up to have, in the 2023 draft:

 

Our 1st

Our 2nd

Our 3rd

Comp. 3rd (for Frazier)

Our 4th

Comp. 4th (for Trubitsky)

Comp. 4th (for Wallace)

Our 5th

Our 6th

Comp. 6th (for McKenzie)

Our 7th

Comp. 7th (for Hughes/Addison)

 

Some of these comp picks will get cancelled out by guys we would sign ourselves to comparable deals (for example, we sign Cordarrelle Patterson for $5M, it cancels out McKenzie's comp pick).

 

I'm not advocating sitting on our hands and doing nothing in hopes of possibly getting comp picks next year, because we can still add talent that won't count to this formula (trades, signing vets who are CUT, not coming off an expiring contract), so if we are careful, and get a little lucky, we could actually walk out of the 2023 draft pretty well. That will be when some big money contracts might kick in (Josh for sure, possible Diggs restructure, who knows what happens with Edmunds), so the cheap contracts we're able to get in that draft would be vital to keeping talent on the roster after guys start to get PAID.

[Billl]

Even if all those guys leave, if Buffalo doesn’t bring in more talent than that via free agency there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans around here.

[gonzo1105]

I just have a gut feeling but the first Bill your going to see signed when Free Agency starts is Siran Neal. Big time ST's player, has starting experience at CB, has played LB and Safety as well and has done it at a fairly high level when asked to. I said earlier I think Bills fans are going to be surprised when he's signed to a Matekevich+ type level deal 

[Bangarang]

Frazier isn’t going to be anyone’s HC so I wouldn’t worry about those comp picks.

[ALLEN1QB]

13 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Frazier isn’t going to be anyone’s HC so I wouldn’t worry about those comp picks.

Hopefully he's not here either way.

[freddyjj]

36 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I just have a gut feeling but the first Bill your going to see signed when Free Agency starts is Siran Neal. Big time ST's player, has starting experience at CB, has played LB and Safety as well and has done it at a fairly high level when asked to. I said earlier I think Bills fans are going to be surprised when he's signed to a Matekevich+ type level deal 

If he is signed away it will be as a STer only.  Has 1 start in 4 years with Bills and is limited to playing Slot or Big Nickel on D.  He has not played as S with Bills except maybe in preseason games.  

[Bangarang]

13 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

Hopefully he's not here either way.

I wouldn’t mind it if he’s back. I don’t see him getting fired though. 

[Billzfan37]

58 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I wouldn’t mind it if he’s back. I don’t see him getting fired though. 

He just had the number one defense in the league missing his top corner.  He's NEVER getting fired with results like that unless he has a huge beef with the head coach or GM.

 

59 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I wouldn’t mind it if he’s back. I don’t see him getting fired though. 

 

[Bangarang]

3 minutes ago, Billzfan37 said:

He just had the number one defense in the league missing his top corner.  He's NEVER getting fired with results like that unless he has a huge beef with the head coach or GM.

 

 

Agreed. And from all accounts, it seems like he and McD have a great working relationship. 

[ArtVandalay]

Don't forget that Antonio Williams is going to start 16 games for the New Jersey Giants.  🤣

[Utah John]

The first guy on the FA list that SHOULD be signed in Harrison Phillips.  He's finally turned into the player that he looked like he was going to be, before his knee injury a couple of years ago.  He's a beast and we need him back.  

 

Neal is a value performer.  He's not going to get many big offers, and he can settle in as a role player with the Bills.  But a lot of guys filling role player positions on the Bills think they're good enough to be starters (at starter pay) elsewhere.  Neal could be one of those guys who gets an offer the Bills don't want to match.