Still the Juries out on Allen - Athletic Article Burrow, Allen or Herbert

[TheBrownBear]

As asinine as these analysts seem from our perspective, as fans who have gotten to watch Josh's growth week in and week out over four seasons, I can still sort of understand why it's so hard for some of them to accept that Josh actually is the stud that they witnessed the past two weeks.  These days most great young quarterbacks come in as highly polished prospects who are essentially "plug and play" from day one.  Think about all of the guys who just hit the ground running over the past decade (Luck, Newton, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Dak, Murray, Goff and rookie Lamar to a lesser extent) and were either great from the get go or at least top-10 types by their second season.  The highly touted that didn't "wow" by the end of their second season were quickly relegated to the trash heap of history (Mitch, Drew Lock, Paxton Lynch, EJ Manuel, Manziel, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, etc.). 

 

Josh came in with a ton of doubters and then proceeded to have a statistically terrible rookie season in 2018.  These analysts might have seen a couple of his splash plays in highlights (Barr leap, Foster bomb), but they'd refer to the box scores and if they happened to tune in to one of his games against New England or whomever, they'd see him throwing scattershot and it would reinforce their opinions that he didn't have what it took to succeed.  Second year his completion % numbers creep up a bit, INTs go down, does enough to get team to playoffs, but his numbers still place him in the bottom 5 of the league and if you tuned into the Texans game you'd think "Christ, this guy is tough, athletic, fun to watch, but his football IQ is dumb as a rock and he's still inaccurate as heck".  Going into year 3, a majority of the NFL media and probably most of the evaluator/scout/GM types had completely written Josh off as a "bust." 

 

So, heading into September 2020, you have a guy who most people think is essentially the second coming of Jake Locker or maybe a Trubisky type.  Good enough to ride a great defense to the playoffs, but a guy who will probably be out of the league within 5-6 years.  Then last season kicks off and he seemingly transforms overnight into a mix of Patrick Mahomes and MVP-level Cam Newton.  That just isn't supposed to happen.   It's like if EJ Manuel had morphed into a superstar overnight in his third year.  You'd think - "Wow.  This dude is playing out of his mind, but he will come back down to Earth soon.  He's EJ Manuel after all."  But he continued to stack one great game after another and by the end of the season, he'd probably won over about half of his doubters.  2021 and especially the past two games probably flipped about 90% of his remaining haters (I see you Nick Wright and PFF).  As of today, there's probably only a handful of doubters left out there - jealous fans (or coaches) or analytics based evaluators that can't accept that Josh broke their "system".  I believe all of these types of articles will make their way to Josh and he will come back even more motivated and completely torch the NFL next year.   Then any doubter that remains will appear like a blind raving lunatic in some post-apocalyptic story. 

[TheBrownBear]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Good lord, the sensitivity from so many on this. The article's reasonable.

 

Except for Brugler and Mueller, these guys are anonymous. So their opinions about him on draft day have nothing to do with this article. Their identities and their draft day opinions are unknown. No need for them to hide opinions or twist them. They make no claims, and for all we know they might have been huge Allen fans on draft day. Or not. You have no idea whether many of these guys missed on Allen. Beside the point, though.

 

The question is simply what they would want now.

 

I'm with eball as to wondering how anyone could rank Allen third. Three out of seven ranked him first, though. And ranking him 2nd if you really really love Burrow doesn't seem unfair to me, though I'd absolutely rank him 1st out of this group. But Burrow especially looks like he might be a very good one down the road, and this is only Burrow's sophomore year. All three, really, but Allen and Burrow particularly look terrific.

 

 

They all look amazing!  They all appear to have +++ intangibles.   They will all be top-3 to top-8 QBs for the next 10 years (barring injury). And you can clearly win at the highest level with any of the three.  I think who you choose really comes down to what type of "style" you prioritize.  Josh gets knocked because the one trait that currently elevates him over Burrow and Herbert, his punishing running ability, is the trait most likely to decline with age and wear and tear, so I get why some prefer the other two guys.  Josh has grown into an elite passer, but he's still probably just the thinnest hair behind the other two as a passer (accuracy and touch).

[Billl]

3 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I don't know if you're supposed to post entire articles from pay sites. 

That article is so terrible, they owe money for reading it.

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

They all look amazing!  They all appear to have +++ intangibles.   They will all be top-3 to top-8 QBs for the next 10 years (barring injury). And you can clearly win at the highest level with any of the three.  I think who you choose really comes down to what type of "style" you prioritize.  Josh gets knocked because the one trait that currently elevates him over Burrow and Herbert, his punishing running ability, is the trait most likely to decline with age and wear and tear, so I get why some prefer the other two guys.  Josh has grown into an elite passer, but he's still probably just the thinnest hair behind the other two as a passer (accuracy and touch).

 

 

You said the thinnest hair and I thought at first it was a moustache comment. Now, I gotcha.

 

Yeah, I worry about him wearing down over the long run. And all three of them are really promising.

[popcornpam]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Burrow is in his second year and is only 5 months younger than Josh.  He is way ahead in terms of development when it comes to a 2nd year QB because of his age, and I dont think thats talked about enough.   He also has the benefit of having tons of talent around him.  Personally, I think he is the flavor of the month, and not as physically gifted as either Allen or Herbert.    Baring injury I think Allen and Herbert have much better careers than Burrow.

Wasn’t Burrow out for most of the season last year injured?  He took nine sacks in the last game. He’s  doesn’t have the Escapability Allen has. 
 

Allen is built like Brady but  with the ability to run. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by popcornpam

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

10 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

They all look amazing!  They all appear to have +++ intangibles.   They will all be top-3 to top-8 QBs for the next 10 years (barring injury). And you can clearly win at the highest level with any of the three.  I think who you choose really comes down to what type of "style" you prioritize.  Josh gets knocked because the one trait that currently elevates him over Burrow and Herbert, his punishing running ability, is the trait most likely to decline with age and wear and tear, so I get why some prefer the other two guys.  Josh has grown into an elite passer, but he's still probably just the thinnest hair behind the other two as a passer (accuracy and touch).

Probably a good place to discuss.  But one stat I see Buffalo Passing vastly lower…

 

Yards After Catch

 

J. Chase - 649 Yds - (3rd)

Kelce/Hardman/Hill - (7th, 9th, 17th)

K. Allen - (48th)

S. Diggs - (53rd)

 

What do we make of that?  Is that some evidence of the other QBs being able to throw a easier, more catchable ball?  Throwing WRs open?  Offensive Concepts?Or just the other WRs being better with the ball in their hands than Diggs?

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Probably a good place to discuss.  But one stat I see Buffalo Passing vastly lower…

 

Yards After Catch

 

J. Chase - 649 Yds - (3rd)

Kelce/Hardman/Hill - (7th, 9th, 17th)

K. Allen - (48th)

S. Diggs - (53rd)

 

What do we make of that?  Is that some evidence of the other QBs being able to throw a easier, more catchable ball?  Throwing WRs open?  Offensive Concepts?Or just the other WRs being better with the ball in their hands than Diggs?

YAC or lack thereof is much more an offensive system statistic than a QB statistic

[Dr. Who]

Just now, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Probably a good place to discuss.  But one stat I see Buffalo Passing vastly lower…

 

Yards After Catch

 

J. Chase - 649 Yds - (3rd)

Kelce/Hardman/Hill - (7th, 9th, 17th)

K. Allen - (48th)

S. Diggs - (53rd)

 

What do we make of that?  Is that some evidence of the other QBs being able to throw a easier, more catchable ball?  Throwing WRs open?  Offensive Concepts?Or just the other WRs being better with the ball in their hands than Diggs?

Part of it is we lack receivers with speed and moves for lots of YAC. Beasely getting too long in the tooth and looks like we are about to let McKenzie go. Utilizing rb as receiver is also a concept they seem to have only utilized late in the season. I think it's more playcalling and talent. Josh has improved his touch a great deal since he got here, though probably that is an area that he can work on yet from his floor of best qb in the NFL.

[Billsfan1972]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Part of it is we lack receivers with speed and moves for lots of YAC. Beasely getting too long in the tooth and looks like we are about to let McKenzie go. Utilizing rb as receiver is also a concept they seem to have only utilized late in the season. I think it's more playcalling and talent. Josh has improved his touch a great deal since he got here, though probably that is an area that he can work on yet from his floor of best qb in the NFL.

The Bills don't call many crossing routes/slants, and seemingly less and screens.  The receivers aren't YAC type either, except McKenzie.  But yes there is no one defenses are too worried about.  

 

Sunday though Davis burned them on one on one coverages.

[Charles Romes]

Burrows career sack percentage is 8.9 which is high even for a horrendous offensive line.  He’s always going to be a tier behind Josh due to pocket sensing and mobility.  Josh facilitates moderate Oline investment.  A player like burrow will always need franchise tackles. 

[FilthyBeast]

There are always going to be questions about Allen until he plays at a consistent level for a full season which really only happened once in 2020.

 

That's why most NFL executives, scouts, etc will always say Mahomes is the best because he rarely has a bad statistical game, at least prior to this season that was the case.

 

As for Burrow, if he gets the Bengals to the SB this year and somehow wins it he'll be the guy that the NFL world fawns over going forward and rightfully so for a a 2nd year player who missed half his rookie season and led such a dramatic turnaround for a franchise that has been horrible in recent years and expected to be last place in their division this year.

[DCofNC]

All really good young QBs.  The fans of their respective teams will think their guy is best.   I love watching Allen, he’s just not the same as the others, he’s really a better, young Favre.  Hard to quantify, but amazing.  Burrow looks like an athletic Brady.  Maholmes and Herbert are decent athletes, great arms, pretty close to prototype players.  You are happy to have any of them.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

24 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Burrows career sack percentage is 8.9 which is high even for a horrendous offensive line.  He’s always going to be a tier behind Josh due to pocket sensing and mobility.  Josh facilitates moderate Oline investment.  A player like burrow will always need franchise tackles. 

 

It could shorten his career too.

[buffaloboyinATL]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Anyone else read this? 

 

https://theathletic.com/3088403/2022/01/27/joe-burrow-josh-allen-or-justin-herbert-which-rising-young-qb-would-nfl-coaches-and-execs-take-now/

 

What is interesting is so much love for Burrow & also Herbert.  Again seems many underestimate Allen (especially coaches).

 

Then read the comment section (up to 445 as of Friday 8:00 am) and the love for Burrow is off the chart, with of course too many pissed Lamar Jackson isn't there (remember he made the Pro Bowl, not Allen or Burrow).

 

What I have said all year, outside lousy weather, the one thing that holds him back is coaching.

 

Even the last two games, I swear, his stats could have been even better.  It was only when down 23-14 that Josh was "unleashed" imo.  

 

Heck where was that 400 yard game this year.  

 

 

My jury is in, and we decided that there is not a single player in the league I would rather have on the team that I cheer for, the Buffalo Bills.  No one else's opinion matters at this point. I know what he is capable of, and I love watching him play.  Nuff said.

[transplantbillsfan]

I was gonna post this.

 

What the ***** is wrong with these people?  Burrow over Allen?  Seriously?

 

Can we please get a WR corps as good as Chase, Higgins and Boyd and an RB as good as Mixon?  And for as much as everyone is pointing to how bad Burrow's OL is and how much he's overcome it... do these people not watch Josh Allen play?  Our OL only finally started coming together at the end of the season and you STILL watch Josh Allen getting pressure and Houdiniing (I think that's a word now) his way out of the pressure to make a spectacular play... ala the 2 point conversion to Diggs in the Chiefs game along with many, many other plays.

 

Not a chance Burrow makes those plays.

 

Is it Burrow's confidence that's getting him so much run?  One of these guys picks Burrow because of his leadership.  Again, do they not watch Josh Allen?  Did they not watch last year after our playoff loss as he went up to EVERY single offensive player and hugged them?

 

***** these guys!

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Not a chance Burrow makes those plays.

 

Just one example - our season would have been over on 4th and 4 when Melvin Ingram knocked Spencer Brown on his *** if Burrow was our QB. I'm assuming this survey was done before the divisional round. At least I hope so.

[YoloinOhio]

Herbert is 13-15 as a starter but the youngest of the 3. Burrow and Allen are both 25, Allen is more advanced, bigger arm, and more mobile but no shade to Joe

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I was gonna post this.

 

What the ***** is wrong with these people?  Burrow over Allen?  Seriously?

 

Can we please get a WR corps as good as Chase, Higgins and Boyd and an RB as good as Mixon?  And for as much as everyone is pointing to how bad Burrow's OL is and how much he's overcome it... do these people not watch Josh Allen play?  Our OL only finally started coming together at the end of the season and you STILL watch Josh Allen getting pressure and Houdiniing (I think that's a word now) his way out of the pressure to make a spectacular play... ala the 2 point conversion to Diggs in the Chiefs game along with many, many other plays.

 

Not a chance Burrow makes those plays.

 

Is it Burrow's confidence that's getting him so much run?  One of these guys picks Burrow because of his leadership.  Again, do they not watch Josh Allen?  Did they not watch last year after our playoff loss as he went up to EVERY single offensive player and hugged them?

 

***** these guys!

But your assuming that how Allen made that 2 point play was the ONLY way to make that play.

 

Another QB … say Burrow … might analyze the defense … pre-snap … which is -a strength of his computer processing like brain…check to a better play and simply rip it in.

 

That is what is getting him the buzz.  The Manning-Like pre-snap mental processing power of diagnosing defenses and the coolness of Joe Namath.

[Amaru523]

When I watch Burrow, I don't really see him make too many spectacular plays like we see from Mahomes and Allen, he throws a very nice, accurate ball, which will get him far, but he's not carrying a team on his back like Allen has already done several times. IMO Burrow (or Herbert for that matter) isn't even on the same level as Josh. I don't understand how anyone can watch the playoff games so far and seriously suggest that Burrow is better, that's insane.

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Good lord, the sensitivity from so many on this. The article's reasonable.

 

Except for Brugler and Mueller, these guys are anonymous. So their opinions about him on draft day have nothing to do with this article. Their identities and their draft day opinions are unknown. No need for them to hide opinions or twist them. They make no claims, and for all we know they might have been huge Allen fans on draft day. Or not. You have no idea whether many of these guys missed on Allen. Beside the point, though.

 

The question is simply what they would want now.

 

I'm with eball as to wondering how anyone could rank Allen third. Three out of seven ranked him first, though. And ranking him 2nd if you really really love Burrow doesn't seem unfair to me, though I'd absolutely rank him 1st out of this group. But Burrow especially looks like he might be a very good one down the road, and this is only Burrow's sophomore year. All three, really, but Allen and Burrow particularly look terrific.

 

 

The only correct answer is Josh Allen