Are we over-reacting to the 13 seconds?

[RaoulDuke79]

No....this shouldn't even be a question. 

[MasterStrategist]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I dont really disagree with what your counter points that are here.  Just more to add...I did not add Frazier to the list of what is over the top because criticism about him isn't over the top.  The defensive calls he had during that 13 seconds are highly questionable.  And he is also likely leaving it seems, so firing him isn't even an option.

 

As far as the DE goes, I don't think Addison and Hughes are B grade DE's.  They dont get as much credit as they deserve.  We were 5th in the NFL at pressuring the QB and did a lot of that on Mahomes too.  We were 10th in sacks too.  Addison sack totals are not much lower than Khalil Macks even (mentioning him as he has been a popular name thrown around to bring in) the past few seasons.  Are they Elite guys?  No, but they are pretty good players and the young guys showed some promise too.

 

So for me, I agree, its always nice to have that TJ Watt guy...but they don't grow on trees and they are not made available usually.  So you have to draft them, and we have used 3 picks at the DE position the last 2 years in the first 2 rounds, so now is the time to let them play and keep growing.  Look at Davis...we held him behind Sanders most the year and wasn't until Sanders got hurt did Davis get a shot to make a bigger impact and that just kept growing down the stretch.  

 

Also have to keep in mind its not easy to field a good overall team that includes an elite pass rusher and elite QB because those two positions (when young and elite) can eat such a big part of the cap up.  And now Josh is extended, and that contract is going to start making it harder to field balanced rosters if we have to also dump a lot of  money into one position like DE too.  So its in our best interest to draft and grow our own.  

Excellent points, and as you said 

elsewhere, it might benefit our entire defense if Frazier leaves and we can adapt a more attacking/aggressive defense.  You said it well in the other thread about specific players who may benefit the most (ie: Edmunds).

 

I can be persuaded about Hughes and Addison, but as much pressure as they supposedly generated, neither "finished" (nor did many others) for that point.  I liked both players too, just don't think we've got much of an ROI from our dline investments. 

 

Will certainly give the benefit of the doubt to our young guys and see your point about giving them opportunities to prove themselves, as you said we have invested alot of draft capital there.  

 

Will depend what this team sees as a bigger need to put us over the top?  DE, faster CB2 (although I'm a big Levi fan, he could also be improved upon), speed at WR (could be "retooling" this offseason there), IOL, TE2, 1 tech DT (will Star be kept/Harry reupped)?

 

I will say, Hughes brought the most juice off the edge.  If he isn't brought back, I'm not sure we have another speed rusher type...if that's something this staff covets.

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I'm saying it now, if we would have blitzed them and the same thing happened you would have posters on here saying why didn't we go prevent defense, huge coaching blunders yet again! I reacted at the time and thought Leslie Frazier should be fired but after calming down we had the top ranked defense in almost every category this season and it was just 2 elite QB's going at it but at the end 1 of them had to win and it just so happened to be the other teams.

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

I'm saying it now, if we would have blitzed them and the same thing happened you would have posters on here saying why didn't we go prevent defense, huge coaching blunders yet again! I reacted at the time and thought Leslie Frazier should be fired but after calming down we had the top ranked defense in almost every category this season and it was just 2 elite QB's going at it but at the end 1 of them had to win and it just so happened to be the other teams.

I think it was said this scenario has happened 64x's before and was 0-64.....  Congrats McD you broke the streak!!!!!!

[Turbo44]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

I'm saying it now, if we would have blitzed them and the same thing happened you would have posters on here saying why didn't we go prevent defense, huge coaching blunders yet again! I reacted at the time and thought Leslie Frazier should be fired but after calming down we had the top ranked defense in almost every category this season and it was just 2 elite QB's going at it but at the end 1 of them had to win and it just so happened to be the other teams.

There was plenty of formations inbetween blitzing and the extreme prevent defense they played that would have worked. Here’s one.

 

Rush 2 (Oliver and hughes) and chip Kelce, hill and Pringle off the line. 2 safeties (Hyde, poyer) 20-25 yards of the ball (not 40); the three guys chipping (Dane, Milano and Johnson) stick with Kelce, hill and Pringle; remaining 4 (Edmunds, Neal, Wallace and Lewis) playing quarters 15 yards down field. This would have made Mahomes throw infinitely harder And would have limited yardage.

 

mcdermott played so conservative as to not to lose that it caused us to lose. 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Turbo44

[BADOLBILZ]

On 1/27/2022 at 7:51 PM, NewEra said:

“They” didn’t.  Josh and Gabe most certainly did.  

 

The difference is I trust Josh to continue to be THAT good.

 

Gabe.........he can easily have a 3-14 target day like against the Jets or drop the big pass at the end of a game like he did in Jacksonville.........he's still got to prove he can do it game-in-game-out..........so I'm hesitant to give him too much credit for a career day against a depleted secondary that was rolling coverage to Diggs.

[Mikey]

Way over reacting. Our D came up short. It happens. This was not some type of a “curse” or “meltdown” or “choke” or some other such thing. This was an incredible game that wasn’t going to be decided in regulation till “zero” on the clock or OT. Unfortunately we lost the coin toss. We will learn and be better.

 

 

[BillsFan130]

On 1/26/2022 at 3:00 PM, SCBills said:

Thirteen seconds left, with three timeouts, just needing a FG, is not as miraculous as it's been made out to be.  Especially with guys who have the arm talent of Allen & Mahomes.

 

That said, no we are not.  

 

Three plays were needed to get them into FG range.  The special teams unit screwed up the first play.  Then the defense screwed up the next two.  If 1 out of those 3 plays is executed properly, we win.  

The 3 timeouts is irrelevant.

 

KC basically had time for 2 plays, at most 3 and the 3rd should have been a hail mary if anything.

 

There is no excuse to let KC go 44 yards in 10 seconds with basically 0 resistance.

 

If Mahomes made a miracle play, I could live with it.

 

But the bills defence just handed them the yards with 0 resistance 

[fergie's ire]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The 3 timeouts is irrelevant.

 

KC basically had time for 2 plays, at most 3 and the 3rd should have been a hail mary if anything.

 

There is no excuse to let KC go 44 yards in 10 seconds with basically 0 resistance.

 

If Mahomes made a miracle play, I could live with it.

 

But the bills defence just handed them the yards with 0 resistance 

The one thing I am thankful for is that I don't think there is an iconic moment or play (like the Hail Murray).  Maybe the Kelce catch to setup or the overtime TD but neither really encapsulates their win.  I am also a Kentucky basketball fan and every March I have to see that @#$@ Christian Laetner shot about a million times.  And yes, I know Laetner is from Buffalo, and I still hate him.

[BillsShredder83]

On 1/26/2022 at 3:06 PM, Jim Bob said:

This is the second worst loss in team history.

 

Fans are working through the grief of how bad that loss was and the opportunity that this team had if they were able to hold the lead.

 

Some people are having completely understandable overreactions in the first few days after the loss. 

Sir. I need a copy of your profile pic lol would you be so kind as to send me a DM. Purdy plz!

[Xwnyer]

We are not overreacting now hearing that kick was supposed to not get to end zone yet someone forgot to tell the  kicker than we play a prevent TD defense instead of stopping the FG. Did coaches think we were up by 4 not 3?  Total,cluster f*** by the coaching staff. Making me worry we are with Marv 2.0 good enough to get to bug game not good enough to clear the hurdle

[NewEra]

47 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The difference is I trust Josh to continue to be THAT good.

 

Gabe.........he can easily have a 3-14 target day like against the Jets or drop the big pass at the end of a game like he did in Jacksonville.........he's still got to prove he can do it game-in-game-out..........so I'm hesitant to give him too much credit for a career day against a depleted secondary that was rolling coverage to Diggs.

For sure.  He benefitted from playing along side Diggs.  That move he put on the the 3rd was something else though!  Nasty

[Turbo44]

We aren’t overreacting to this. The moment proved too big for McDermott, the ST coach and Fraser and that’s really worrisome.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Turbo44

[Xwnyer]

Not over reacting the coaches screwed the pooch

[Boatdrinks]

On 1/26/2022 at 2:56 PM, cv05 said:

• So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN)
• Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2)
• Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) 

 

The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷‍♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better.

 

I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. 

Yes it’s fair, and here’s why. That 10% chance was turned into more like a 75-80% chance by poor strategy.You can live with getting beat by great players like Kelce or Mahomes, but only if you force them to make a great play to do it. The Bills made it so easy Tua could have done it. From the screw up with the kickoff to the 4 man rush to the strange coverage with a free release; it was just an inexcusable implosion of defense and coaching . It’s not like a DB fell and gave up a deep pass etc. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

The 3 timeouts is irrelevant.

 

KC basically had time for 2 plays, at most 3 and the 3rd should have been a hail mary if anything.

 

There is no excuse to let KC go 44 yards in 10 seconds with basically 0 resistance.

 

If Mahomes made a miracle play, I could live with it.

 

But the bills defence just handed them the yards with 0 resistance 

This .What happened in the 13 seconds was the ONLY thing that mattered. Not a drive or 2 in the middle of the game, not some fans preference for this or that play on offense. The Bills were ahead with just a kickoff and 3 plays to defend. Nothing else made an impact in what followed. The chances for a KC win were slim, and the Bills made it ridiculously easy for them. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 1/26/2022 at 3:00 PM, SCBills said:

Thirteen seconds left, with three timeouts, just needing a FG, is not as miraculous as it's been made out to be.  Especially with guys who have the arm talent of Allen & Mahomes.

 

That said, no we are not.  

 

Three plays were needed to get them into FG range.  The special teams unit screwed up the first play.  Then the defense screwed up the next two.  If 1 out of those 3 plays is executed properly, we win.  

U mean called properly, the play call was the problem the defense couldn’t do anything to stop the Chiefs when there already giving up the yards for free. 
 

2 DTs preferably Star and Harry to plug the middle so Mahomes can’t run. 

 

2 LBers - Rouse and Edmunds , Rouse to jam KELCE and Edmunds on Hill . 
 

7 Secondary Players to flood the middle of the field and over the top. 
 

If we ran this type of defensive formation the game would of been over. Mahomes would of needed time to find a open wr he’s would of eaten at least 6-7 secs on each play. 

 

[Bermuda Triangle]

On 1/27/2022 at 1:23 PM, extrahammer said:

I think it's a bit far fetched to say that based on a 3 second differential, really splitting hairs at that point, different matchup, and even in that matchup, the Chiefs lost, so that example is bad because it came down to a flip of the coin that went NE's way. Were Chiefs fans saying that was the worst thing in their history? There were 59 other minutes in the game people are dismissing that could have affected and avoided the last 13 seconds. Truly. All of this focus on McD and the last 13 seconds is just to keep sports talk radio in the area alive. Truly. 

Well, the defense sucked for the first 59:47 of the game as well.

 

Why did the offense wait so long to attack downfield when Mathieu went out?  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

They oddly played for the Hail Mary and also the sidelines….. just a complete head scratching sequence. Perhaps the “Hail Murray” was on their minds and it freaked them out. 
 

Not sure, but I do agree with some that suggest the Bills were out-coached much of the game. Two wasted possessions of taking it out of their best players hands in the middle of the game allowed the Chiefs to build a 9 point lead which should’ve been more if not for a missed extra point and missed FG. 

When are we gonna stop letting previous blunders came back to burn us over and over again. When u get beat by a Hail Mary that’s basically what it is a prayer . A coach can’t let those things bother him he just needs to put it in the bad beat category and move on. Those are 1% probability plays it’s just amazing to me that we continue to be haunted by such things. 

[Jim Bob]

On 1/29/2022 at 6:53 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

Sir. I need a copy of your profile pic lol would you be so kind as to send me a DM. Purdy plz!

 

I am on probation and cannot send DMs.

 

But, here is where I grabbed it from:

 

https://www.teepublic.com/t-shirt/25504920-randy-mafia?store_id=158208