Beane anticipates Cole Beasley being back next season

[Saxum]

7 hours ago, Jim Bob said:

 

Actually, it was his Yards Before Catch that were way down in 2021 compared to 2019 & 2020.

 

Yards Before Catch Per Reception

2019 6.7

2020 7.5

2021 4.7

 

Yards After Catch Per Reception

2019 4.9

2020 4.3

2021 3.7

 

 

Those can be due to game plan changing & opposing defense changes and not necessarily his performance.

 

I do expect him on roster at start of free agency and decision made post draft.

[elijah]

It seems like this is set to be one of the hottest topics of the offseason, with Bills fans being almost exactly split on this and possibly even leaning towards cutting Beasley rather than keeping him. It makes sense between the fact of being a liability due to vaccination status, the regression in stats (82 catches, 967 yards & 4 TDs in 2020 to 82/693/1 in 2021), & the $6M savings that could be had under a tight cap. 

 

But with that being said, what’s the plan to replace him? 

 

Just some notes and options down below ..

 

Keep: $7.5M against 2022 Cap

Cut: $6M Savings

 

2022 Cap Space: $10.96M

 

Current Depth Chart: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders (FA), Isaiah McKenzie (FA), Jake Kumerow, Isaiah Hodgins

 

In House Options: Isaiah McKenzie, Emmanuel Sanders 

 

Pending Free Agent Options (Spotrac Market Value): 

 - Davante Adams (5yr/$129M)

 - Chris Godwin (5yr/$90M)

 - Allen Robinson (4yr/$63M)

 - Jamison Crowder (4yr/$49M)

 - T.Y. Hilton (2yr/$12M)

 - AJ Green (4yr/$28M)

 - Mike Williams (4yr/$66M)

 - Michael Gallup (4yr/$47M)

 - DJ Chark (4yr/$47M)

 - Christian Kirk (4yr/$47M)

 - Odell Beckham (2yr/$11M)

 - Cedrick Wilson (3yr/$19M)

 - Will Fuller, JuJu, Zach Pascal, Rashard Higgins, Jakeem Grant, Byron Pringle, Desean Jackson, Danny Amendola, Auden Tate, etc. 

 

Potential 2022 Draft Prospects (SI Rank)

 - Treylon Burks, Arkansas (14)

 - Drake London, USC (19)

 - Garrett Wilson, Ohio State (20)

 - Jameson Williams, Alabama (24)

 - Jahan Dotson, Penn State (32)

 - Chris Olave, Ohio State (33) 

 - John Metchie, Alabama (37)

 - George Pickens, Georgia (40)

 - David Bell, Purdue (75)

 - Justyn Ross, Clemson (81)

 - Alec Pierce, Cincinnati (84)

 

My person opinion, — as of today — between the departure of Sanders & McKenzie there simply isn’t enough talent left in the WR group to also cut Beasley. I’m in favor of not only keeping Beasley, but also drafting another WR to further prepare for his departure next year. Going from Diggs, Davis, Bease, Sanders & McKenzie down to Diggs & Davis is just too much talent to lose. Even from that group of 5 down to Diggs, Davis and a rookie receiver is a significant step down. 

 

As for Sanders & McKenzie, Sanders is too old and had quite a declining role at the end of the year. McKenzie I believe is going to get paid much more than many are anticipating. 

 

My vote would be to go with Diggs, Davis, Beasley AND a first round rookie at receiver. It’s clearer than ever after this past Sunday that beating KC comes down to scoring a ridiculous number of points — the winner of the 4 meetings over the past 2 seasons averaged 36 ppg. So, continue to load up on firepower. You can blame it on Frazier, McDermott, Bass, Levi Wallace, game planning & etc., but points win the game bottom line. 

 

If we were going to kick Beasley to the curb and look to replace via free agency, Christian Kirk seems like the perfect guy to replace that slot role and also take on McKenzie’s role, combing down 2 roster spots into 1. 

 

So, are you looking to keep or replace Beasley? And if your plan/hope is to cut and replace him (seems most of the fanbase at this point), how do you wish to replace his production? 

Edited January 27, 2022 by elijah

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Jim Bob said:

 

Actually, it was his Yards Before Catch that were way down in 2021 compared to 2019 & 2020.

 

Yards Before Catch Per Reception

2019 6.7

2020 7.5

2021 4.7

 

Yards After Catch Per Reception

2019 4.9

2020 4.3

2021 3.7

 

That's 8.4 yards per catch in 2021.   One thing that way refreshing in the Chiefs game was that he average 10 yards a catch.   Allen was finding him downfield more than he did most of the season.   In the Chiefs game, Beasley look more like the Beas of a year ago. 

[Bruffalo]

I'd rather retain McKenzie and pick up someone else.

 

Unrealistic but what I wish would happen: Bills pick up Hunter Renfrow.

 

More realistic: Braxton Barrios.

[ghostwriter]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

- Drake London, Iowa State (19)

Drake London played for USC and he’s incredible. I want a CB RD1, but in the event that we went WR there I would be very happy with him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Bruffalo said:

I'd rather retain McKenzie and pick up someone else.

 

Unrealistic but what I wish would happen: Bills pick up Hunter Renfrow.

 

More realistic: Braxton Barrios.

 

OK I'll bite here.  This is a different approach, but Hear Me Out work with me here.

 

Keep McKenzie if we can, and sign Cordarelle Patterson.

He's 30 yr old, so there's that.   But so was Beasley when he came here.  He's been a strong kickoff returner who showed he could take it to the house.  He ran a 4.42 40 in his day but he weighs 220 (he's a truck).  You're adding speed!

 

He's a FA after a year with Atlanta, where he was used more out of the backfield than as a receiver, so he's a dual threat that way, but because he hasn't been used that much as an RB before the last 2 seasons, so he doesn't have 8 years of wear and tear on his body.  But having shown he can function that way, he could give us that Thurman Thomas style dual threat.

 

He signed with Atlanta last year for 1 yr/$3M. 

 

I'll give credit where credit is due to @JGMcD2 for this notion and bow out if he wants to defend it more.
 

 

 

[purple haze]

Bease is gone unless he takes a pay cut.  Beane is no fool. Expect and will are two different words.  Expectations change based on circumstances.

[Bruffalo]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK I'll bite here.  This is a different approach, but Hear Me Out work with me here.

 

Keep McKenzie if we can, and sign Cordarelle Patterson.

He's 30 yr old, so there's that.   But so was Beasley when he came here.  He's been a strong kickoff returner who showed he could take it to the house.  He ran a 4.42 40 in his day but he weighs 220 (he's a truck).  You're adding speed!

 

He's a FA after a year with Atlanta, where he was used more out of the backfield than as a receiver, so he's a dual threat that way, but because he hasn't been used that much as an RB before the last 2 seasons, so he doesn't have 8 years of wear and tear on his body.  But having shown he can function that way, he could give us that Thurman Thomas style dual threat.

 

He signed with Atlanta last year for 1 yr/$3M. 

 

I'll give credit where credit is due to @JGMcD2 for this notion and bow out if he wants to defend it more.
 

 

 

I love this idea, but the man has earned himself a payday. I think he'll be too pricey for the Bills.

[GETTOTHE50]

Idk who is going to pay beasley more than the bills will though. he is going up in age and had a down year in production. (i wont include the distraction stuff)

 

but i dont see why he shouldnt be easily retained if the bills want him

 

id like to go get christian kirk though. to put in the slot with diggs and davis on the outside though.

 

kirk can get behind the safeties

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

I'd rather retain McKenzie and pick up someone else.

 

Unrealistic but what I wish would happen: Bills pick up Hunter Renfrow.

 

More realistic: Braxton Barrios.

I like the way you think.  Keep McKenzie as your slot. He's younger,  faster and cheaper 2yr/8M.  Barrios as our returner would be amazing. Then draft another wr as Hodgins will probably be gone. 

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Jim Bob said:

 

Actually, it was his Yards Before Catch that were way down in 2021 compared to 2019 & 2020.

 

Yards Before Catch Per Reception

2019 6.7

2020 7.5

2021 4.7

 

Yards After Catch Per Reception

2019 4.9

2020 4.3

2021 3.7

 

 

 

Y'know, I'm no Blaise Pascal, but looking at your numbers, I'd say it was both.  If you go by his average in 2019 and 2020 and compare it to his 2021 numbers, he lost about 33% in before the catch and about 20% in after the catch.

 

Both of those are absolutely significant.

 

 

[QCity]

55 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I like the way you think.  Keep McKenzie as your slot. He's younger,  faster and cheaper 2yr/8M.  Barrios as our returner would be amazing. 

 

Nobody is giving Mckenzie $4M a year   He's a JAG that is a product of Allen. Also, the name is spelled Berrios for all you Mike Lupati guys out there.

 

Cole will be in training camp for sure, but he won't be on the roster week 1.

[BuffaloButt]

We need more speed at WR.  Cole has been great but his salary is too high for what we need.  

[Aussie Joe]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

That’ll be tough.  He’s due a $500k roster bonus on 3/20 and I don’t expect the Bills to be going crazy in the first wave of free agency.

 

The new money due to him in 2022 is $6.07M.  That’s certainly not egregious for a starting slot WR.  But I wonder why he wasn’t on the field more in the KC game.  He only played 30 of 64 offensive snaps.  Diggs played 54, Davis 53, McKenzie 17, Sanders 16 and Kumerow 3.  Knox played 63!  I know Beasley still ranks 3rd among WRs - and 4th among receiving targets - in snap count, but it seems like he should have had more usage in such an important game.  It makes me think that the team sees him in decline and that they were limiting his snaps.  That makes it more likely that they’ll move on from him this off-season. 

They can sign someone or at least have a deal in the pipeline by 3/20 if they are moving on from him…. 
 

Im sure they knew Sanders was coming last preseason when they cut Brown …

 

That’s if they are definitely moving on from him of course… I’m not totally convinced as yet…

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I could be wrong, but I think the guy you're talking to meant "put the 2-3M above what you need to re-up McKenzie, towards signing someone else, not that we'd sign someone else as a FA for $2-3M.

 

 

He said sign McKenzie "for 3-4 Million", then use the other  2-3 million for something else.  

 

We already have a long snapper.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

8 hours ago, purple haze said:

Bease is gone unless he takes a pay cut.  Beane is no fool. Expect and will are two different words.  Expectations change based on circumstances.

I think this is the most likely. They’ll approach him about a restructuring to free up some cap. Diggs, Davis, Bease is still a very good WR core. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

He said sign McKenzie "for 3-4 Million", then use the other  2-3 million for something else.  

 

We already have a long snapper.

 

I think you're critiquing the strong side not the weak side of that post.  I could be wrong, but this year, I don't think McKenzie is going to get $3-4M AAV.  That would slot him in as ~ a #40 paid WR in the league, but more importantly, put him in with the 1st round rookies.   Last year I actually thought he might get that kind of offer, and with all the salary cap goings on, I was wrong. 

 

It's the hard reality of the NFL salary cap that it's whittled away at the veteran "middle class" and left the top WR who are paid $6M and up (like Beasley and Sanders), the rookies, and the lower rent guys.   I don't think McKenzie has shown enough to get out of the "middle class".

 

"for something else" is the weak side becaues would clearly include using the money to beef up someone else's contract offer, but You Do You.

 

6 hours ago, QCity said:

Nobody is giving Mckenzie $4M a year   He's a JAG that is a product of Allen.

 

 

Now this is a poor take on the other side.  McKenzie legitimately has that property no one can coach - speed.  Our defensive players know it.  And he's developed into a competent NFL WR who can run routes and block, surprisingly well for his size and weight.  He's tough.  Unlike a lot of fast guys, he can actually play football.

 

He's not just a "product of Allen" at this point. 

 

That said, if he'd developed into a reliable KR/PR he might be worth that if the salary cap wasn't still recovering.  But he didn't and it is.

 

[SCBills]

I have to imagine that we are going RD1 CB, especially with the talent level of CB currently projected late 1st Round... but, if we drafted Jameson Williams, and he fully recovers from the ACL injury, our Offense would be straight up fireworks.  

 

He played slot at Bama, so he'd be a perfect replacement for Beasley/McKenzie.

[K-9]

6 hours ago, QCity said:

 

Nobody is giving Mckenzie $4M a year   He's a JAG that is a product of Allen. Also, the name is spelled Berrios for all you Mike Lupati guys out there.

 

Cole will be in training camp for sure, but he won't be on the roster week 1.

There’s an old saying in the league, “you bring your team to camp.” I suspect if they bring Cole Beasley to camp then the intent is to keep him. If not, he will be gone before camp starts. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Y'know, I'm no Blaise Pascal, but looking at your numbers, I'd say it was both.  If you go by his average in 2019 and 2020 and compare it to his 2021 numbers, he lost about 33% in before the catch and about 20% in after the catch.

 

Both of those are absolutely significant.

 

I don't think it's that reasonable to lump 2019 in there because as Beane himself said, in 2019 we really just had Beasley and Brown.  In 2020 we got Diggs and Davis, and McKenzie started to show he could actually play WR, so there were a lot more mouths to feed. 

 

In addition, the Bills offense was different in 2019 - Allen was not yet throwing with anticipation and they weren't running all those option routes Beasley excels at.

 

Compared to 2021, YBC was ~60% higher and YAC ~20% higher in 2020.

 

A key metric is also 1st downs, declined from 53 to 34 or 56% less.  Now that may go with shorter routes, but we all saw Beasley going down before he was hit at times.

 

The unanswered question to me is: Is this decline on Beasley, or a change in the Bills passing game?

 

My "eyeball test" which says that the Bills were not running the same depth of intermediate routes which they ran to great success last season, for most of the year. 

 

Perhaps Cover1 will do a piece on it - I am not a subscriber, just a viewer, but if anyone is a subscriber, please ask if they would find it interesting to compare the Bills intermediate passing game last year vs. this year - I think there would be a lot of interest. 

 

Greg Cosell mentioned the same thing on his show with Brown and Tasker, so I know I'm not the only one who sees this, but it was literally a drive by "of course, the Bills intermediate passing game was so productive last year and it's gone this year for various reasons" without going into what he sees as those reasons since the topic was breaking down the next week, not delving into the passing game details for the season.

 

Anyway, the question is, was Beasley slower and unable to execute those deeper intermediate routes quickly enough, or was the defense typically playing to take those routes away since they were so productive last season (leaving shorter and longer routes), or did pass protection break down before the intermediate routes got open? and maybe the answer is "some of each" or "it varies" but what Beane does will probably vary depending upon his answers.