Chiefs have a TON of UFA's heading into next year and only 21m in cap space...they could have some issues

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

So is the Bills window also closing then?

 

because the bills are going to lose most of Phillips, Hughes, Addison, Zimmer, Obada and currently have 20 Mil less space than the Chiefs do. 

 

Likely will resign Phillips, Hughes and Addison were calculated by drafting Rousseau and Basham last year. Bills have some easy moves to free up cap space, just like the Chiefs probably do. But not enough to resign everyone. 

 

Potentially losing Mathieu and Ward are bigger losses on D to them than anyone the Bills have tho.

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

So is the Bills window also closing then?

 

because the bills are going to lose most of Phillips, Hughes, Addison, Zimmer, Obada and currently have 20 Mil less space than the Chiefs do. 

 

Bills Defense "if" they lost everyone possible on that side of the ball:

 

- Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa

 

- Oliver, Star

 

- Edmunds, Milano

 

- White, Jackson, Johnson

 

- Poyer, Hyde

 

That defense, even with JAG rotational depth, isn't a disaster.  

 

 

[Billl]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yup. Matthieu, Ingram, Ward and Schwartz are not going to be easy to replace with JAGs.  A few others they'd want to keep if they can.

 

Schwartz might be the one of those four who comes back cheapest because of his injuries. He'd be a great piece for them to have even if he's not starting

We’ll almost certainly sign either Mathieu or Ward.  I’m hoping for Ward.  Ingram will be cheap, and he’s replaceable if not.  His value was that he was competent and allowed us to push Jones back inside where he dominates instead of at DE where he’s awful.  Mitchell Schwartz isn’t even on the team.  He was cut following last season.

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

They’ve actually been going all in for a while you can’t do it every year

Good teams rarely get torn apart due to salary cap issues.  Maybe you could say the Seahawks, but that was much dysfunctional management and aging veterans as it was cap.  People have been swearing the Saints would be screwed by the cap for years, and it never happened.

[CountDorkula]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

We’ll almost certainly sign either Mathieu or Ward.  I’m hoping for Ward.  Ingram will be cheap, and he’s replaceable if not.  His value was that he was competent and allowed us to push Jones back inside where he dominates instead of at DE where he’s awful.  Mitchell Schwartz isn’t even on the team.  He was cut following last season.

Good teams rarely get torn apart due to salary cap issues.  Maybe you could say the Seahawks, but that was much dysfunctional management and aging veterans as it was cap.  People have been swearing the Saints would be screwed by the cap for years, and it never happened.

ummm the Saints are 75 million over the cap currently with a lot of immovable, uncuttable contracts. ......

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Likely will resign Phillips, Hughes and Addison were calculated by drafting Rousseau and Basham last year. Bills have some easy moves to free up cap space, just like the Chiefs probably do. But not enough to resign everyone. 

 

Potentially losing Mathieu and Ward are bigger losses on D to them than anyone the Bills have tho.

The Bills will also be faced with a lot of decisions too.  The Bills have about $2.6M of cap space so its likely Beane is going to have to restructure some contracts and make a few tough decisions in order to free up enough cap space to get any high end pass rushing free agent we all want.  Maybe he uses some draft capital to move up into the mid-teens of the draft if somebody drops in the 1st round of the draft?  Or does he go corner in round 1 or get help on the offensive line?  Lots of questions.  And probably too early to expect any answers.   

 

How much is the team going to allocate to the defensive line and is the 8/9 player rotation going to continue?

Do you bring back Beasley at a cap it of $7.57M or release him for a dead cap hit of $1.5M and attempt to re-sign McKenzie or is Stevenson capable of stepping into the slot role next year at a bargain price of $868K? 

Is it worth bringing back Morse at Center at $11.25M or take the dead cap hit of $3.75M then look to fill the spot early in the draft? 

The contracts of other prominent players like AJ Klien, Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, and Daryl Williams could be looked at too.  Can next years starting offensive line look like Doyle, Brown, Dawkins, Bates, and a 2022 pick at center?  I don't know anything about the college centers entering the draft yet.

Can or does Beane want to sign Edmunds to a market rate extension which could lower his cap hit for 2022?  

Are there any trades out there that can be pulled off? 

How many draft choices can be expected to make the team?  WIll Beane trade up and draft 3 or 4 potential starters in a quality over quantity strategy? 

 

Some things to think about but way too early to expect any answers.

[Billl]

1 minute ago, CountDorkula said:

ummm the Saints are 75 million over the cap currently with a lot of immovable, uncuttable contracts. ......

 

Right, but they’re ready to tear it down and start over because their talent window closed.  It didn’t happen until after Brees retired and Michael Thomas went AWOL.  They didn’t have to let any of their key pieces walk due to cap issues until then because they were able to kick the can down the road pretty much indefinitely.  There’s no downside to blowing up the roster now.  They’ve got a backup TE playing QB for God’s sake.  
 

Salary cap issues or not, that team would either need to be torn down or it would be stuck in limbo where they’re not good enough to compete for a championship but not bad enough to draft a blue chip QB.

[JerseyBills]

22 hours ago, Motorin' said:

There are some significant players on that list. 

Seriously.  They're going to look alot different.  Wow. 

[Success]

13 hours ago, Billl said:

Yeah, I definitely disagree, but it’s close.  I think the ending clouded a lot of people’s minds regarding how lopsided the game actually was.  Kansas City moved the ball at will.  They ran 73 plays, and 41 of them were on first down.  The Bills struggled for everything, but Josh was so brilliant that he made every do or die play.  Kansas City outgained Buffalo 552-422, but they hit the upright twice to give away 4 points and Buffalo went 4/4 on 4th downs.

 

You’ve got great fans and a great board as well.  I used to say the same about us, but the board took a pretty disgusting turn about 7 years ago.  It’s still got the best football discussion I’ve ever found if you’re willing to sift through all the racism and political extremism, and I’m just not.  So, you’re stuck with me for now.

 

Buffalo never had the ball with the lead at any point in the game, but every time it looked like Kansas City was about to put it away, Josh made a play.  It was the best game I’d ever seen when Davis caught the final TD, and I said as much at the time right here.  Even with all that, it didn’t matter.  Mahomes finished going 9/9 for 137 yards and 2 TDs and honestly made it look easy.

 

I’ve got a ton of respect for the Bills.  IMO, they’re the second best team in the NFL, and there’s a bigger gap between them and third best than there is between them and first.  We’re going to have this discussion basically every year the heat death of the universe, so we’ll see what happens.  So far, it’s 1-1 in the regular season and 2-0 Chiefs in the postseason between Josh and Pat.  I’m assuming we’ll play twice again next year and I hope we do.  The Bills have become my second team.  I tell everyone else how good you are and then tell y’all how much better we are.  I started posting here after I put a couple of substantial bets on Buffalo and the over for the season win total and to win the division Josh’s second year.  Made a lot of money on the first and damned near made a huge amount on the second (which is to say I lost).
 

 

 

Thanks.  I get wary of passive/aggressiveness from opposing fans, whose posts seem good-natured at first, but after awhile, it seems like they're just trying to convince Bills fans that their team will always be better, or that the Bills will never have a chance, or whatever. I get easily suspicious of that, because it happens all the time.

 

The KC fans on this board have been great (there aren't many, but it's been good discussion). But I thought you were veering into that territory. The fuller explanation helps.

 

You guys have a head start for sure.  I think the teams are in different places in terms of contention and what people call the "window," though w/ Allen and Mahomes, that latter part may not apply as much.  Obviously, KC has gotten the better of the Bills so far, but this is the 1st year where I felt the Bills had gotten to a place to beat the Chiefs.  

 

I definitely disagree w/ you on the game itself, despite the stats. I think both teams left opportunities on the field, but at the end, Allen was moving the Bills O down the field as easily as Mahomes was moving KC.  At best, it's a coin flip game - and it was.  But I disagree w/ your analysis that the Bills struggled for everything, or even anything.  The Bills win that game if they win the coin toss. I knew KC would win as soon as they got the ball in OT.

 

As for the 2-0 playoff record so far - let's see how it goes when KC has to come to our place here. Regardless, I'm looking forward to the KC/Cincy game.  I think that could be another barn burner.  I don't have a stake, and it wouldn't bother me to see either team win it all.  This is one of those playoffs (now that the Bills are out) where I'd be happy for most of the teams. Cincy for obvious reasons - that fanbase has suffered.  KC just because I like Mahomes, and always root for Reid after what happened w/ Philly.  Stafford, of course.  He has paid his dues.  And San Fran just because it will upset Pats fans that they'd have 6 rings.

 

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The Bills will also be faced with a lot of decisions too.  The Bills have about $2.6M of cap space so its likely Beane is going to have to restructure some contracts and make a few tough decisions in order to free up enough cap space to get any high end pass rushing free agent we all want.  Maybe he uses some draft capital to move up into the mid-teens of the draft if somebody drops in the 1st round of the draft?  Or does he go corner in round 1 or get help on the offensive line?  Lots of questions.  And probably too early to expect any answers.   

 

How much is the team going to allocate to the defensive line and is the 8/9 player rotation going to continue?

Do you bring back Beasley at a cap it of $7.57M or release him for a dead cap hit of $1.5M and attempt to re-sign McKenzie or is Stevenson capable of stepping into the slot role next year at a bargain price of $868K? 

Is it worth bringing back Morse at Center at $11.25M or take the dead cap hit of $3.75M then look to fill the spot early in the draft? 

The contracts of other prominent players like AJ Klien, Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, and Daryl Williams could be looked at too.  Can next years starting offensive line look like Doyle, Brown, Dawkins, Bates, and a 2022 pick at center?  I don't know anything about the college centers entering the draft yet.

Can or does Beane want to sign Edmunds to a market rate extension which could lower his cap hit for 2022?  

Are there any trades out there that can be pulled off? 

How many draft choices can be expected to make the team?  WIll Beane trade up and draft 3 or 4 potential starters in a quality over quantity strategy? 

 

Some things to think about but way too early to expect any answers.

Great post.  Beane hasn’t really had to make tough decisions yet.  So far he’s chosen to pay pretty much everyone.  Allen got a big contract.  White got a big contract, Milano got a big contract.  He (I think) signed Morse to a big contract.  Edmunds is going to get $13,000,000 next season.  He picked up the option on Oliver, etc.

 

Veach (and Reid) seem to be willing to live with temporary roster holes in order to prioritize retaining stars.  They let Morse walk, and Reid was able to coach and scheme around having a bum at C for a couple of years.  Then when Creed fell into their lap at pick 61, they grabbed him.  Same thing happened with LB.  We were abysmal for years after letting Dee Ford and Justin Houston go, but that was okay because we switched to a 4-3 and now that’s the least important position in our defense.  Then they grabbed Gay at pick 63 2 years ago and Bolton at 58 last year and have two plus LBers on rookie contracts.

 

Yes the Chiefs have some huge contracts, but they only hurt you when those guys don’t produce.   Mahomes, Hill, Jones, Thuney, and Mathieu have been worth every penny.  Clark and Hitchens have not been good, and they’ll be gone next year.

 

Contrast that with the Bills who haven’t had to deal with the big cap hits of Allen and White yet.  Allen is worth every penny, but White’s going to count for $16.4 million next season coming off an injury that will likely take until 2023 to fully recover from.  Then you’ve got guys like Star ($9mm), Morse ($11mm), Milano ($10mm), Edmunds ($13mm), Beasley ($8mm) etc. who don’t have “big contracts” per se, but that’s $50,000,000 of cap space tied up on guys who are either getting old, playing less critical positions, or just aren’t particularly productive.

 

That’s not to say Buffalo is in a terrible spot or anything, but those contracts severely limit Beane’s options elsewhere.  I’m not sure he’s done himself any favors in the draft recently, either.  After taking Epenesa two years ago, he double dipped on Rousseau and Basham last year when Creed was sitting right there.  He had the perfect pick fall into his lap, and he passed on it to take a 24 year old DE (who I wanted the Chiefs to draft assuming Buffalo took Creed).  If McDermott is going to keep running a rotational D-line, Beane’s picks at that position have to fit.

 

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, Success said:

Thanks.  I get wary of passive/aggressiveness from opposing fans, whose posts seem good-natured at first, but after awhile, it seems like they're just trying to convince Bills fans that their team will always be better, or that the Bills will never have a chance, or whatever. I get easily suspicious of that, because it happens all the time.

 

The KC fans on this board have been great (there aren't many, but it's been good discussion). But I thought you were veering into that territory. The fuller explanation helps

Oh I absolutely was being a little passive aggressive.  There were a couple of posters on here who were being rude (not you), so I responded in kind.  I’m pretty easy to get along with, but I have no patience for internet tough guys.  No disrespect towards you was intended, so I apologize if it came across that way.

[nucci]

yet they continue to go to AFC championship games and Superbowls....so many issues they have

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

We’ll almost certainly sign either Mathieu or Ward.  I’m hoping for Ward.  Ingram will be cheap, and he’s replaceable if not.  His value was that he was competent and allowed us to push Jones back inside where he dominates instead of at DE where he’s awful.  Mitchell Schwartz isn’t even on the team.  He was cut following last season.

Good teams rarely get torn apart due to salary cap issues.  Maybe you could say the Seahawks, but that was much dysfunctional management and aging veterans as it was cap.  People have been swearing the Saints would be screwed by the cap for years, and it never happened.

 

When they are picking near first the next couple seasons you will see the consequences.   These things have a cycle, you can keep borrowing from future cap for a long time.  The Steelers, Patriots, Saints and Packers have had are will now see those consequences.    But they all rode it as long as possible with their franchise QB which is what you should do.  But that does not mean be stupid about it.  The Saints were stupid though, to say it never happened is silly, they have lost lots of good players over the years due to the cap.  They have done a good job of drafting though to backfill.

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, 13 Second Prevent Defense said:

 

When they are picking near first the next couple seasons you will see the consequences.   These things have a cycle, you can keep borrowing from future cap for a long time.  The Steelers, Patriots, Saints and Packers have had are will now see those consequences.    But they all rode it as long as possible with their franchise QB which is what you should do.  But that does not mean be stupid about it.  The Saints were stupid though, to say it never happened is silly, they have lost lots of good players over the years due to the cap.  They have done a good job of drafting though to backfill.

Three of those teams had HOF QBs, and they were all able to kick their cap issues down the road until he retired.  The fourth team was the number 1 seed this year.  Cap issues haven’t affected any of them a bit.  
 

All of those teams had winning records.  New Orleans nearly made the playoffs using a TE at QB and then even he got hurt. Their issues have nothing to do with the salary cap and everything to do with Brees retiring and Thomas refusing to play.  Pittsburgh made the playoffs, and their biggest issue was the fact that Ben was a shell of his old self.  That’s not a money issue.  The Patriots made the playoffs with a rookie QB.  If they had kept Brady, they’d have been a serious threat to win another ring this year.  It’s not like he was a salary cap casualty.

 

I guess I don’t see how these teams who went a combined 41-27 are examples of why you need to be careful with the salary cap.  If anything, they’re examples of why you need a QB.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Three of those teams had HOF QBs, and they were all able to kick their cap issues down the road until he retired.  The fourth team was the number 1 seed this year.  Cap issues haven’t affected any of them a bit.  
 

All of those teams had winning records.  New Orleans nearly made the playoffs using a TE at QB and then even he got hurt. Their issues have nothing to do with the salary cap and everything to do with Brees retiring and Thomas refusing to play.  Pittsburgh made the playoffs, and their biggest issue was the fact that Ben was a shell of his old self.  That’s not a money issue.  The Patriots made the playoffs with a rookie QB.  If they had kept Brady, they’d have been a serious threat to win another ring this year.  It’s not like he was a salary cap casualty.

 

I guess I don’t see how these teams who went a combined 41-27 are examples of why you need to be careful with the salary cap.  If anything, they’re examples of why you need a QB.

 

The cap can be manipulated but it is meaningless, not going to get into an argument, I see you are dug in.  Making the playoffs is not the goal.  All 4 of those teams have HOF QBs, all have made cap decisions over the years even while pushing money into future years.  Its not just I get everything I want all the time, if you cant see that, fine.

[Billl]

On 1/27/2022 at 7:13 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I am still not letting you have L'Jarius Sneed as a #1 corner, I'm sorry. He is a nickel corner first and foremost. I know he has played some snaps on the boundary this year, but he still overwhelmingly plays the slot. 638 snaps in the slot. 248 snaps on the boundary. He is a very good nickel (wasn't quite as consistent this year as he was as a rookie in my eyes when we played like a real elite nickel corner) but I can't have him as a #1 corner until he is playing the majority of his snaps out there and holding up in those snaps. 

 

He was an excellent pick in the 4th round, don't get me wrong, and nickel corners are starter these days even if they don't move onto the boundary in 'base' because actually most teams' 'base' is nickel. 

Feel free to watch the game again.  He was lined up on the boundary against Diggs every snap until Mathieu went out.  Ordinarily, Fenton would have played the slot but with both out, Sneed took over that role.  Sneed in our #1 CB and Ward is our #2.  Fenton is our Nickel, and sometimes Mathieu covers the slot as well.  Our backup CBS are Hughes and Baker.  Neither of them can play the slot.  They’re pure boundary guys just like Breeland was last season.  Sneed played the boundary the first 4 weeks of 2020 when Breeland was out.  When he returned, Sneed moved to the slot.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

Feel free to watch the game again.  He was lined up on the boundary against Diggs every snap until Mathieu went out.  Ordinarily, Fenton would have played the slot but with both out, Sneed took over that role.  Sneed in our #1 CB and Ward is our #2.  Fenton is our Nickel, and sometimes Mathieu covers the slot as well.  Our backup CBS are Hughes and Baker.  Neither of them can play the slot.  They’re pure boundary guys just like Breeland was last season.  Sneed played the boundary the first 4 weeks of 2020 when Breeland was out.  When he returned, Sneed moved to the slot.

 

Sneed has played 638 snaps in the slot and 248 on the boundary THIS season. They are the facts. I know he does both but you are not a #1 corner when you are 3/4s in the slot and 1/4 on the boundary.

[DCOrange]

Playoff teams with more cap space than KC: Cinci, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh. $21 mil is a pretty decent amount of room to start out with and their list of free agents shouldn't be terrifying to Chiefs fans IMO. They'll be fine this offseason in the very least.

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sneed has played 638 snaps in the slot and 248 on the boundary THIS season. They are the facts. I know he does both but you are not a #1 corner when you are 3/4s in the slot and 1/4 on the boundary.

So is Tyreek not a #1 WR because he lines up in the slot so often?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

So is Tyreek not a #1 WR because he lines up in the slot so often?

 

Tyreek is pretty much a 50/50 split the last two years. This year 483 out wide and 480 slot. I'll tell you why I think it is different with offenses - because they get to dictate. Offenses can make whoever they want their #1 target, they can throw the ball anywhere. Defenses can only cover who is out there. If a majority of teams started putting their best receiver in the slot the majority of the time maybe all the #1 corners would go and play inside. The fact is offenses don't. So playing as the nickel in traffic where you are not drawing the #1 guy in coverage the overwhelming majority of the time means you are not a #1 corner. 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Tyreek is pretty much a 50/50 split the last two years. This year 483 out wide and 480 slot. I'll tell you why I think it is different with offenses - because they get to dictate. Offenses can make whoever they want their #1 target, they can throw the ball anywhere. Defenses can only cover who is out there. If a majority of teams started putting their best receiver in the slot the majority of the time maybe all the #1 corners would go and play inside. The fact is offenses don't. So playing as the nickel in traffic where you are not drawing the #1 guy in coverage the overwhelming majority of the time means you are not a #1 corner. 

Who do you think lined up across from Diggs yesterday and erased him?  It was the same guy who lined up against him in the AFCCG last year and shut him out.  Sneed held Diggs without a catch until his concussion.  Fenton came in and Diggs caught passes on the first 2 plays.

 

Sneed is absolutely our #1.  Spagnuolo would absolutely say as much.  The fact that Spags moves him all over is a testament to his skill set.  Mathieu’s role is critical in this defense, and I think Spags is preparing to put Sneed in that spot next year and let Mathieu walk.  He’s the best CB we’ve had in Kansas City since Dale Carter.