Chiefs have a TON of UFA's heading into next year and only 21m in cap space...they could have some issues

[Billl]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

More than likely...mainly what I mean is down years where they don't make it to the AFCCG

In the next decade, how many AFC Championship games Will there be that don’t include Buffalo or KC?  I’ll set the O/U at 3.5.

[beebe]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

“Down years” will be 10-7 for both teams.  I can’t see either team going under .500 in the next decade barring a QB injury.

 

I tend to agree with this, but it was eye opening to watch the Chiefs this year the first half of the season. Not only did they face a brutal schedule early, but they were taking every team's absolute best shot. That was never more true than in the Bills game on SNF. When you become the team everyone is chasing, they are saving their best plays for you, and in some cases they are literally building their team to beat yours. That will continue to be true for the Chiefs as teams study them more and more and try to invent new ways to slow them down. 

 

The Chiefs caught a few amazing breaks at a critical time this year. At 3-4 overall, they had a stretch of vs GB, at Vegas (SNF), vs Dallas before their bye week. It wasn't crazy to think that the Chiefs could have dropped two of three to fall to 4-6 which would have been very hard to recover from with more tough games left on their schedule (in particular at LAC, vs Cincy). But Aaron Rodgers got COVID, effectively gifting the Chiefs a win in what otherwise would have been a coin flip. And then a few weeks later, Dallas lost two of their best WRs, which greatly enhanced the Chiefs' chances. 

 

Everything that could go right did go right for the Chiefs ever since, of course. But especially as the AFC West improves (Chargers should be ready to roll going forward, and Vegas or Denver could add a star QB through trade or free agency), the Chiefs will have their hands full. In good news, Veach has drafted amazingly well in recent years and has hit on enough picks in 2020 and 2021 that they're in remarkably good shape in the near term. 

 

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

I tend to agree with this, but it was eye opening to watch the Chiefs this year the first half of the season. Not only did they face a brutal schedule early, but they were taking every team's absolute best shot. That was never more true than in the Bills game on SNF. When you become the team everyone is chasing, they are saving their best plays for you, and in some cases they are literally building their team to beat yours. That will continue to be true for the Chiefs as teams study them more and more and try to invent new ways to slow them down. 

 

The Chiefs caught a few amazing breaks at a critical time this year. At 3-4 overall, they had a stretch of vs GB, at Vegas (SNF), vs Dallas before their bye week. It wasn't crazy to think that the Chiefs could have dropped two of three to fall to 4-6 which would have been very hard to recover from with more tough games left on their schedule (in particular at LAC, vs Cincy). But Aaron Rodgers got COVID, effectively gifting the Chiefs a win in what otherwise would have been a coin flip. And then a few weeks later, Dallas lost two of their best WRs, which greatly enhanced the Chiefs' chances. 

 

Everything that could go right did go right for the Chiefs ever since, of course. But especially as the AFC West improves (Chargers should be ready to roll going forward, and Vegas or Denver could add a star QB through trade or free agency), the Chiefs will have their hands full. In good news, Veach has drafted amazingly well in recent years and has hit on enough picks in 2020 and 2021 that they're in remarkably good shape in the near term. 

 

I agree with every word of this.  This season will do more for Mahomes’s career than any he’s had since the year he didn’t play.  Everything had always been easy for him.  Defenses weren’t stopping him.  They were finally taking advantage of his arrogance by making him be patient. 
 

The Cover 2 shell is trash when used as a base defense, but it works if the opposing QB is too proud to steal the baby’s candy.  Sunday was the first game of his career in which Mahomes didn’t throw a single pass 20+ yards beyond the LOS.  He’s had his epiphany.  I don’t know what holes there are left in his game that exist to be filled.
 

Josh still has holes, and that’s terrifying as an opposing fan because he’s really good at solving them year to year.  At some point in the very near future he needs to learn how to operate within a system that includes zero designed QB runs.  A prime Roethlisberger who can run like Derrick Henry when you least expect it is unstoppable.  Josh Allen is currently…pretty much unstoppable until he’s inevitably broken.  Dude gives a lot of hits, but he takes a lot of hits.

[purple haze]

9 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

You sound like the fans who were writing them off after we beat them in Oct,  they will be fine and that is plenty of money when they restructure other contracts .  Let's worry about how the Bills are going to get better.  Like maybe upgrade the DC coaching spot 

You don’t seem to realize Frazier and McDermott share the same defensive principals.  You think another  DC would be outside of those principles?  That’s doubtful.  More likely to happen is Beane continues searching for D linemen who can impact the pocket as part of 4 rushers.   

[Nitro]

12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

There are 5 defensive starters on that list and at least 2 on offense. Those aren't "easy" to replace no matter how you want to sugarcoat it.

Because the Bills are in the same boat.  Easy to replace.  Not stars.   The top UFA will be resigned by each team.   Not sugar coating it.  This happens every season. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Nitro

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes… we prioritize depth. They load up on stars while taking a hit at depth… they are 3-1 against us the last two years, guess who’s plan is better? 

They're 3-1 because we can't stop 3 players and our coach(s) are game day fools. Josh and the offense have scored 38 & 36 on their defense. The window closes when 87 retires. He'll be 33 this fall. Just gotta keep drafting young offensive weapons and wait.

[emaw1979]

While it looks like there are cap issues going into next year there really isn't. The Chiefs designed the Mahomes contract (zero signing bonus) to have his contract able to convert salary to roster bonuses each year that frees up almost his entire cap hit for the year. The will do this until it's time to tear up the contract and make a new one. Additionally, Hill will be needing a new contract and they can significantly lower his cap hit. Same with Chris Jones, who also had no signing bonus. 

 

The only FA they need to resign is Orlando Brown, who has overperformed many expectations. He had a rough start but has looked like a top 5 LT. They could tag him. I like Mathieu, but the Chiefs would be wise to let him walk. He had his worst year this year and is a twitter headcase. They will need to replace his leadership though because after he left the game the DB"s were confused and a mess. 

 

Additionally, they will get two extra 3rd round picks for the GM hiring and if Eric Bienemy gets hired for a HC they get another 3rd round pick. (I disagree with this affirmative action type carrot-rule) If they can continue to draft even half as good as they did this last draft then they are going to be in the SB conversation for the next decade. 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The cap is just an excuse not to spend money or go all in.  KC goes all in.  They’ll figure out way to make it work cap-wise.  

They’ve actually been going all in for a while you can’t do it every year

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The cap is just an excuse not to spend money or go all in.  KC goes all in.  They’ll figure out way to make it work cap-wise.  

 

 

Luckily for us, they already have figured a way to make it work cap-wise. That way being to be pretty conservative with their cap, which will mean that after the Covid cap drop they will again have decent amounts of money to spend next year.

 

The reason you don't go all in is that you screw yourself over the long term. The teams that do go all in end up never ever going over the cap, but they also end up not being able to afford guys they need, and it goes on for years. They'll get one or two guys, but always have to leave a few holes.

 

We don't need to worry. Beane gets it and is conservative without being completely unswerving. If it hadn't been for the Covid revenue failure, we'd never have been close to the level we're at now.

13 hours ago, Motorin' said:

There are some significant players on that list. 

 

 

Yup. Matthieu, Ingram, Ward and Schwartz are not going to be easy to replace with JAGs.  A few others they'd want to keep if they can.

 

Schwartz might be the one of those four who comes back cheapest because of his injuries. He'd be a great piece for them to have even if he's not starting.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Meh. They need to re-sign Orlando Brown, and they will. Other than that, guys are replaceable. This past offseason they replaced all 5 offensive linemen and some defensive players and they were fine. The just beat us without Honey Badger. 

 

Agree. They will need to find a couple of receivers to re-stock their depth with Pringle and Robinson out. And yea Reed and Ingram have been nice pieces up front but that Dline goes as Chris Jones goes. 

 

The one MUST retain on that list is Brown. And he ain't getting out the building..

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, Billl said:

In the next decade, how many AFC Championship games Will there be that don’t include Buffalo or KC?  I’ll set the O/U at 3.5.

Herbert has the raw size/skill/talent to upset that, if the Chargers as an organization can put the right sort of team around him.   At least he could now and again upset it.  And don't count out Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, though they had a bad year this year.  Then there's Joe Burrow and the Bengals on the rise.

 

I agree the AFC championship game will likely feature 2 elite QBs for the next decade.

 

You also never know about seeding.  Look at us this year---probably should have played in the AFCCG, but didn't, b/c we ran into the Chiefs early on.  Could have gone the other way too, and then the Chiefs wouldn't have been in the AFCCG.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, Billl said:

The guy filling in for Mathieu literally tripped and fell down while standing still on 4th and 13 leaving Davis all alone in the end zone.  Davis had 4 TDs and over 200 yards receiving.  I don’t know how much more a team could possibly be impacted by the loss of a DB.

 

Because Tre White allows our defense to be proactive rather than reactive. He allows us to dictate some to defenses. Without him we are forced into much more of a reactive approach. Not saying Tre would have changed the last 13 seconds, by the way, that was on how we chose to line up and play. But overall he makes a difference, and a very significant one, to the way the Bills play defense. 

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, Billl said:

It’s all about drafting well.  The Chiefs drafted 4 starters in 2020 (RB, LB, RT, and #1 CB) and 3 so far from 2021 (LB, C, G) without a first round pick.  They’ve got a lot of expensive players, but they’re offset by young players on rookie contracts.

Rosters get expensive when high draft picks don’t get a lot of snaps.  Veach/Reid have done a good on getting day 1 starters despite not having a top 30 pick since Mahomes.

 

I am still not letting you have L'Jarius Sneed as a #1 corner, I'm sorry. He is a nickel corner first and foremost. I know he has played some snaps on the boundary this year, but he still overwhelmingly plays the slot. 638 snaps in the slot. 248 snaps on the boundary. He is a very good nickel (wasn't quite as consistent this year as he was as a rookie in my eyes when we played like a real elite nickel corner) but I can't have him as a #1 corner until he is playing the majority of his snaps out there and holding up in those snaps. 

 

He was an excellent pick in the 4th round, don't get me wrong, and nickel corners are starter these days even if they don't move onto the boundary in 'base' because actually most teams' 'base' is nickel. 

[CountDorkula]

16 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Were they fine earlier in the year when their defense was historically bad?

They are in the AFC Champ game looking to go to another superbowl after giving up a historic Performance to Josh Allen.

 

SO id say yes. 

[MrEpsYtown]

16 hours ago, NewEra said:

We beat the chiefs in week 4 without Milano.  Doesn’t mean we don’t need him does it? 

 

Yes and no imo. It means he is replaceable. And I think Mathieu is replaceable at this point in his career. I think they do re-sign him, but I think he is down the priority list for them, just not as important as Orlando Brown Jr. Maybe they turnover their secondary like the did their O-line last year. 

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

They are in the AFC Champ game looking to go to another superbowl after giving up a historic Performance to Josh Allen.

 

SO id say yes. 

 

You miss the point. If their defense kept playing like that and were missing players like they were, they wouldn't have likely made the playoffs. They were 3-4 at one point and a bunch of games in that win streak were won because their defense stepped up and held the other team down because their offense still wasn't putting up a ton of points. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Yes and no imo. It means he is replaceable. And I think Mathieu is replaceable at this point in his career. I think they do re-sign him, but I think he is down the priority list for them, just not as important as Orlando Brown Jr. Maybe they turnover their secondary like the did their O-line last year. 

Meh. I disagree. If you want to say that, than everyone except josh Allen is replaceable.  Milano performed at a pro bowl level for much of the year and his skill set is part of what makes this bills d as successful as it was.  KC is KC.  They’re going to score lots of points almost every defense (especially in the playoffs) as long as they don’t have backups starting on the OL.   

[Big Turk]

15 hours ago, Billl said:

The guy filling in for Mathieu literally tripped and fell down while standing still on 4th and 13 leaving Davis all alone in the end zone.  Davis had 4 TDs and over 200 yards receiving.  I don’t know how much more a team could possibly be impacted by the loss of a DB.

 

Are you that unknowledgeable about football that you don't know the difference between safeties and corners? There was no way he was a replacement for Mathieu just based on where he was lined up on the field. He was outside the numbers...the only time a safety could be covering a WR is when they are lined up in the slot.  Hughes is a CB not a safety. C'mon man...let's get it together.

 

Sorenson was in for Mathieu

Edited January 27, 2022 by Big Turk

[Your Brown Eye]

They'll be fine. With Mahomes and crew they'll always be in contention. They'll trim the fat and sign FA's who want title shots at lower than market value, and replace in the draft. Rinse and repeat.

 

Hopefully the Bills can/will do the same with the ascension of Allen to Superstar level. We will begin to see FA's say their top FA landing sites are Buffalo among one or two more teams.

[CountDorkula]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

You miss the point. If their defense kept playing like that and were missing players like they were, they wouldn't have likely made the playoffs. They were 3-4 at one point and a bunch of games in that win streak were won because their defense stepped up and held the other team down because their offense still wasn't putting up a ton of points. 

So is the Bills window also closing then?

 

because the bills are going to lose most of Phillips, Hughes, Addison, Zimmer, Obada and currently have 20 Mil less space than the Chiefs do.