Coaching or Drafting? - The Defensive Front

[LABILLBACKER]

If Addison is our best FA pickup over the last 2-3 years, then we're in big trouble. Ed Oliver I like alot but he does require a decent 1T next to him. Edmunds is a semi- bust. Groot might improve but I have my doubts about Epenesa & Boogie. We need to spend a few more dollars and get a Chandler Jones.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

They had Mahomes running for his life. They just didn't get home enough.

 

 

[Niagara Dude]

6 hours ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

The Bills have a defensive minded Head Coach and a former HC as DC. This should mean the Bills have an edge in developing defensive players and having an impact unit, even in the modern NFL. Through their time in Buffalo McDermott and Frazier have done a remarkable job with the secondary, but I think all fans would admit the front 7 (or 6 in our case) has been a weakness. Plenty of pressures but few sacks, terrible against the run. Pressures work against rookies/ backups/ marginal QBs, but the DL has to get home against the best and disrupt those QBs.

 

Leslie Frazier was a DB on the 1985 Chicago Bears Defense. He was a DB coach for Andy Reid for the 2000's era Eagles. He has had many other stops as DC and HC, but his specialty is and has been DBs. McDermott was a S in college and was a DB coach before becoming the DC in Philadelphia. It was a tough task trying to replace Jim Johnson and after two years as DC for the Eagles he was let go. Ron Rivera (another assistant Defensive coach for the 2000's Eagles) brought him in to be DC in Carolina. Frazier and McDermott have coached some great DBs. They have been a part of and have coached some of the best Defenses ever. Guys like Brian Dawkins and Josh Norman played for these coaches.

 

The Bills under this coaching duo have made the most of any DB talent they can get. Poyer was a minor bust for Cleveland, and Hyde was a man with potential but no position in GB. They have become a Pro-Bowl/ All Pro Safety duo in Buffalo. White's stickiness has been maximized in this system. UDFA Levi Wallace has become a solid #2 and will get paid this off-season. 7th round pick Dane Jackson held up well in White's absence. Taron Johnson went from a guy infamous for a football bouncing off his helmet during The Combine to being a top 5-10 nickel DB who has made game changing plays and is a starter. Even EJ Gaines looked solid here.

 

Let's admit it Bills fans, the defensive front 6/7 has been weak. It is worse considering the FA$ and premium draft picks spent there.

 

Let's call 1st and 2nd round picks premium picks. Since Beane has been GM (2018 draft forward) 5 of 8 premium picks have gone to the defensive front, 4/8 have gone to the Defensive Line. That is a very heavy investment. Beane is 2/3 on offense with Allen and Diggs. Ford is a bust.

 

2018 - 1st round (16th overall) - Tre Edmunds - MLB

2019 - 1st round (9th overall) - Ed Oliver -DT

2020 - 2nd round (54th overall) - AJ Epenesa - DE

2021 - 1st round (30th overall) - Gregory Rousseau - DE

2021 - 2nd round (62nd overall) - Boogie Basham - DE

 

That is 3 x 1sts and 2 x 2nds in 4 years. None of these guys has become a legitimate game changer. I know Rousseau and Basham are rookies, but we see defensive rookies making game changing plays all over the league. Basham wasn't even active in half of the games this year. Ed Oliver, who was selected 9th overall, is developing, but he was 9th overall three years ago! If he has a 1 technique DT who shows up he looks good. It should be the other way around for #9 overall.

 

1/2 of TBD keeps hoping Edmunds will make an impact play.... keep waiting. Meanwhile LBs drafted in similar spots or later in the same or later drafts make game changing plays all over the field. Milano was a 5th round pick and has made more impact plays than Edmunds as a LB. He is also a converted safety.

 

Beane has also spent stupid amounts of money in FA on Defensive linemen. Star L, Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Murphy. Only Addison has been close to worth the money, and he has been part of some very bad results (Hail Murray as an example)

 

How much FA spending and premium draft picks have to go to fixing the front 6/7 with supposed 'Defensive Minds' at the helm?

 

Is Beane just bad at identifying DL/LB talent, or are our defensive minds, who are DB specialists just bad at getting the most out of talent in those positions? What is more mind boggling is that the 85 bears and the 2000's Jim Johnson Eagles sent crazy blitz packages to be aggressive destructive defenses. Why aren't the Bills doing the same? Our coaches know the DBs are the strength and sit back in a base Nickel, cover 2 safety look, and hope for coverage wins. If the Defensive front 6/7 get a win, all the better, but they usually do not.

 

The strategy with picks and FA$ was sound, but the results are poor.

 

Is it talent evaluation or coaching? It needs to be figured out. Despite all the premium draft picks and all the FA $ spent the Bills have no impact players in the front 7/6. This will not do against Mahomes/ Burrow/ Herbert etc going forward.

 

We can point to GM successes and failures and HC/DC successes and failures. Something is out of sync, and it needs to be fixed.

 

Is Beane finding good talent and the coaches are failing to get the most out of them, or are the coaches getting the most out of failed draft picks and wasteful FA spending??

 

Let's hear it. There is a clear disconnect in investment and results.

 Epenesa like Ford looks like a mistake for a second round pick

[GunnerBill]

I disagree on Oliver. He was a game changer this year there were drives he wrecked on his own. One in that Atlanta game following Josh's 3rd INT stands out. He made all 3 plays and got them off the field. He was also the only defensive player who made plays on Sunday.

 

You have a point on the rest but I think it is early to make conclusions on Rousseau and Basham. Rousseau especially had a good rookie year. Very possible he develops further. 

3 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

 Epenesa like Ford looks like a mistake for a second round pick

 

Sadly I agree with this. And they both felt a bit like need selections.

[Nextmanup]

10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I would not be surprised if we went DL in the first again.  

IF they do, someone should be fired!

 

 

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They had Mahomes running for his life. They just didn't get home enough.

 

 

You don't "get home" on Mahomes.  You don't beat him with an edge rusher.

 

You beat him by outscoring him.  We gave it a solid shot and SHOULD HAVE WON.

 

The coaching staff let us down, not the defensive line.

 

(Don't get me wrong, the DL is terrible---they are all busts to varying degrees).

 

Spend assets in the draft on OFFENSE where it impacts GAME RESULTS.

 

We need a much better OL and the WR corps will be changed this off-season too.

 

 I would say we need an elite TE, but Knox had a breakout season this year and I think he's OK.  

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

11 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

IF they do, someone should be fired!

 

 

You don't "get home" on Mahomes.  You don't beat him with an edge rusher.

 

You beat him by outscoring him.  We gave it a solid shot and SHOULD HAVE WON.

 

The coaching staff let us down, not the defensive line.

 

(Don't get me wrong, the DL is terrible---they are all busts to varying degrees).

 

Spend assets in the draft on OFFENSE where it impacts GAME RESULTS.

 

We need a much better OL and the WR corps will be changed this off-season too.

 

 I would say we need an elite TE, but Knox had a breakout season this year and I think he's OK.  

 

 

I do agree about drafting offense. I think on defense add veterans to try and beat KC. Draft offense to keep Allen's weapons loaded. We need a run after catch guy. We need an explosive running back.

 

Beating Mahomes is basically what Allen just did. Score more. I know Tampa did shut him down. A great pass rush will also work but adding an elite pass rusher will be much harder to do. Maybe there's a trade out there.

10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I don’t think we need to do much on the offense except adding to interior OLine, one more WR option.  
 

I don’t care where we add another DL, draft or FA but we need probably 2 more.

I would love to add an interior OL but I really Iike how they played down the stretch. Bates was a perfect fit and he's young. 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I do agree about drafting offense. I think on defense add veterans to try and beat KC. Draft offense to keep Allen's weapons loaded. We need a run after catch guy. We need an explosive running back.

 

Beating Mahomes is basically what Allen just did. Score more. I know Tampa did shut him down. A great pass rush will also work but adding an elite pass rusher will be much harder to do. Maybe there's a trade out there.

I would love to add an interior OL but I really Iike how they played down the stretch. Bates was a perfect fit and he's young. 

I like Bates.  We will need better depth which can come later rounds.

 

I would like an offensive line better than okay.  Allen can make any WR look good with time.  
 

I wouldn’t be upset with a CB, guard or DT in the first.

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Disagree. I think Josh carries the offense game in and game out and would greatly benefit from a playmaking group like Mahomes and Burrow have…. Time to get him some help so he’s not doing everything.

He does have help.  Diggs is an elite WR.  Davis is really growing.  Knox is a top 10 tight end.  McKenzie I now think will have an increased role.  I’m not against another speed guy at WR.

[Greg S]

I think they go CB in Rd 1. They need someone opposite Tre. Who's to say he comes back 100%. I hope so but with that injury you don't know if he lost a step or not. Overall they need CB, DL,OL and another weapon at WR for Josh. Sanders and Beasley probably won't be back. 

[Coach Tuesday]

I think they legitimately like their young d linemen.  Oliver is a star, Harry had an insanely good run to end the season, Rousseau already is one of the best run defenders in the league as a rookie, and Basham showed some real juice toward the end of the year.  They need a bit more depth at d tackle and they need one impact edge rusher to emerge.  May or may not be Epenesa (who appears to be the only one in this group with real bust potential) - could be a twitchy tweener OLB they draft or find in the dollar CD bin in free agency.  Star, Addison and probably Hughes moving on will open up spots for younger guys.   
 

Overall I don’t see d line as an issue and don’t think the Bills do, either.  

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Diggs isn’t elite. He’s no Hill or even Chase. He’s very good, but they need another 1B option next to him IMO. 

 

I disagree. He is elite. I don't disagree they still need to upgrade the passing options around him. I am a bit Gabe Davis guy and it is no surprise to me that our O got better when he supplanted Sanders as the #2. But I think they need more speed on the field on offense. Diggs is an elite route runner, Gabe is an excellent big receiver, they need that guy who is going to generate major YAC with his speed. 

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I think they legitimately like their young d linemen.  Oliver is a star, Harry had an insanely good run to end the season, Rousseau already is one of the best run defenders in the league as a rookie, and Basham showed some real juice toward the end of the year.  They need a bit more depth at d tackle and they need one impact edge rusher to emerge.  May or may not be Epenesa (who appears to be the only one in this group with real bust potential) - could be a twitchy tweener OLB they draft or find in the dollar CD bin in free agency.  Star, Addison and probably Hughes moving on will open up spots for younger guys.   
 

Overall I don’t see d line as an issue and don’t think the Bills do, either.  

 

Agree. I think they should see if a ring chasing vet guy shakes free on the edge and is willing to come play below market value. But I am not in favour of chasing big expensive trades. They need to leave Greg on the field more on 3rd down IMO. They took him off a lot of Mario this year and Mario had a good year as a situational 3rd down rusher.... but I don't know that I am totally sold he was better than Greg would have been with the same obvious passing down opportunities. 

[Jim Bob]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/33142010/ranking-rookie-classes-2021-nfl-draft-best-worst-teams-based-first-year-production

 

Quote

27. Buffalo Bills

 

Why they're ranked here: The Bills draft class' biggest contributions came from their top three picks, as Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham were each part of a strong defensive line rotation while Spencer Brown played 726 snaps on the offensive line. Rousseau recorded 30 pressures and 38 defensive stops, but injuries limited Basham to just 200 snaps in total. Brown played over 600 snaps at right tackle, and although he allowed just one sack, he gave up 30 pressures and accrued a 51 PFF pass-blocking grade.

 

How their top pick fared: Rousseau flashed the kind of athleticism and size that makes him a problem for offenses to deal with, as he was a useful part of Buffalo's defensive front. He was particularly impactful in the run game, but his pass rush was more inconsistent. He posted an eight-pressure game but also has five games in which he failed to record any pressure at all.

 

Best value pick: Brown became a starter on the Bills offensive line, spending most of his time at right tackle but even filling in at left tackle when needed. He recorded two elite run-blocking performances, which was his stronger area of play, and was rarely a liability in pass protection.

 

I think last year's class was an outcome of being too focused on Kansas City and not enough on how to make their team better.

 

Yes, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through KC for the foreseeable future. But, they need to focus on how to improve the Buffalo Bills for 20 games a year and not just one or two games.

 

So, I would lean more towards the drafting/evaluating side of things than the coaching when it comes to the guys they have drafted along the DL lately. The coaches aren't the reason they can create pressure and not get home.

[Royale with Cheese]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Diggs isn’t elite. He’s no Hill or even Chase. He’s very good, but they need another 1B option next to him IMO. 

 

Diggs is absolutely elite.  

 

In 2 seasons with the Bills, he has 230 receptions (most in the NFL), 18 TD's and 2,700 + yards.  

Last year with his 127 catches, ranks 6th All Time.

He's a top 3-4 WR in this league.

[filthymcnasty08]

one well placed nightmare pass rusher and the other pieces start to fit better

 

None of our guys are a GUARANTEE to get home on a pass rush if the QB hesitates.  Lot's of them COULD get there.  We need the guy in the mix that WILL get there.

These guys change offensive game plans for opponents...shortens the mental clock for the QB, chops down the route tree.

Get another CB that can man-up in the draft and our other CB's can play nickel/slot and our safeties can ball-hawk instead of playing 2-deep prevent against a KC.

 

When you know the pass rush is 100% home inside a certain time, the rest of our pieces can play ball with anyone. 

 

Khalil Mack is my vote.  LAR defense was elite in everyone's eyes BEFORE Von Miller arrived.  It's paying off huge now.  They are a nightmare.  

 

Mack is a comparable add to this unit.

 

[dpberr]

I think the rotation idea is one of those "looks great on paper" concepts that sucks in practice.  

 

I don't think Edmunds is well suited to handle defensive play calls.  I really wish they'd give that responsibility to another player and let Edmunds just play linebacker.  You'd see a better player.

 

They've taken way too much weight off Epenesa.  Sure he's a little faster, but now he's not strong.  Now is he a DE or a LB?  

 

Ed Oliver gets into the backfield.  That's what he did at Houston, that's why he was drafted highly.  The Bills have tried fitting the round peg into a square hole here making him be an all-around DT, giving him lots of assignments, and not prioritizing quarterback pressure.  This is due in part to the issues at the other DT position.  

 

Rousseau and Basham are rookies with limited pass rushing strategies.  Experienced OLs know how to defend the one-trick pony.  The key to more production from them next year is developing their portfolio of strategies to evade and get pass the linemen.  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They don’t have a YAC guy… it’s a desperate need IMO. Really hope it is addressed and they don’t continue to stack defense which has been exposed in several playoff games since the McDermott era. The only draft position I feel they should consider early is corner. 

 

Agree. My ideal first three picks are receiver, tackle and corner. Now obviously you have to see how the draft falls but I feel like their day 1 and 2 capital should be invested there. And before people shout "but we have two tackles!" My answer is when you spend premium assets on oline you draft tackles unless there are truly elite interior prospects. Dion came back into form at the end of the year but he had some struggles this season and the Bills are only really tied to him in a "can't get out" way one more year. He could also slide into guard. Spencer Brown had a decent rookie showing but he has some pass pro development to do. Maybe you draft a tackle early and he sits. Maybe you draft him early and he starts over Brown. Maybe he sits for 4 weeks and then they do what they did this year and slide a starting tackle inside to start the rookie. 

 

If you go receiver and corner in the first two rounds and want to go guard or center in the 3rd, fine, I understand that. But if oline is a 1st or 2nd round pick they should pick a tackle IMO. I'd target Andrew Norwell at guard in FA. 

 

At corner it has to be someone who can play some press. Levi and Dane are both not only strictly zone guys but their physical limitations mean they are strictly off coverage guys for the most part. Tre White is a zone corner but he can play press at the line in cover 2 type looks. I think it would change how the Bills matched up to a team like KC or Cincy with their weapons outside if you could have two corners capable of doing that. Essentially with Levi and Dane we are always in "react" mode on the outside. I'd like another corner with whom they can be proactive outside and really start to dictate to the offense where we want you to throw the ball. That is what Tre does for us. If we had the ability to do that on both sides it changes the dynamic IMO. They are not gonna use it every down, but to have it as a weapon would be big. 

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

On 1/25/2022 at 8:39 PM, ScottLaw said:

I think they need an established veteran rusher… someone like Mack, Von Miller, or as @GunnerBillmentioned Cam Jordan if available. They drafted two rushers in back to back 1st and 2nd rounds last year…. It’s time to invest offensively in the draft IMO. Need more speed on both sides of the ball, but they had the worst YAC rankings in the league….. Allen was their offense, they need to get him some more help. 

 

What do you think of Hasaan Reddick? His years are voided on his current contract. Carolina connection is there 😆

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

What do you think of Hasaan Reddick? His years are voided on his current contract. Carolina connection is there 😆

 

He is more a 3-4 OLB. Don't think he is a scheme fit. 

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is more a 3-4 OLB. Don't think he is a scheme fit. 

 

He is. I am wondering what kind of impact there will be on philosophy if Frazier goes. If Vic Fango is a possibility he would be a nice fit for the Von Miller type role in that style of defense.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

He is. I am wondering what kind of impact there will be on philosophy if Frazier goes. If Vic Fango is a possibility he would be a nice fit for the Von Miller type role in that style of defense.

 

I don't think there is any chance at all that Sean McDermott - a Jim Johnson disciple - moves to a 3-4 defense. 

[Buffalo Junction]

On 1/25/2022 at 9:10 PM, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

This is the point. The Bills can take cast offs, UDFA, 7th round picks and make them viable NFL players in the secondary.

 

2 x 1st round picks, and 2 x 2nd round picks on the DL and almost nothing to show for it. No impact.

 

The OL has hardly been better. Beane passed on Creed Humphrey for Basham. They traded Teller for a sack of donuts, and then continued to trot Ford out there. Bates was sitting on the bench for 3 years....

 

The OL/DL is the most important part of building a Super Bowl winning team after QB, and this combo of GM/HC is not good at it.

 

Is it talent evaluation or coaching?

Considering Washington and Babich’s track records I’m inclined to think it’s talent evaluation. For example, Edmunds doesn’t really have much of a coaching excuse when he has Urlacher and Lance Briggs’ LBer coach. I suppose those coaches could be a bit complacent at this point in their careers though. 🤷‍♂️.