Thought experiment

[The Frankish Reich]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're right about this.  Apparently, in the overtime, Mahomes was saying "I'm coming to you, 10."   Mahomes knew he'd be open.  

 

Now, Diggs doesn't have that awesome top-end speed, so DBs can play him tighter, but there aren't many guys who can get separation like Diggs.  There's no way Allen is saying "I'm coming to you, 14," because he knows Diggs may be blanketed.  

 

And I kept waiting for the ball to go to Knox downfield.  Were the CHiefs doubling Diggs and Knox?   

Check out the other thread - Kelce mic'd up. Kelce basically tells Tyreek that if he cuts inside he (Kelce) would "get in the way" (meaning a pick play, and he's smart enough to sell it for the refs) and that's exactly what they did. And then he calls the next play too, not that it was any surprise since he broke free and simply set up far enough down the field to get in Butker's easy FG range. [Sigh]

Edited January 25, 2022 by The Frankish Reich

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Check out the other thread - Kelce mic'd up. Kelce basically tells Tyreek that if he cuts inside he's "get in the way" (meaning a pick play, and he's smart enough to sell it for the refs) and that's exactly what they did. And then he calls the next play too, not that it was any surprise since he broke free and simply set up far enough down the field to get in Butker's easy FG range. [Sigh]

I didn't want to watch that - I knew it would break my heart.   

 

But that's a good example.   Those guys are playing at higher level than the Bills receiver, I suspect.   And they're doing it because Reid and Bienemy taught them to do it and create the space for them to do it in.   

[beebe]

Mahomes played the first five games of the 2019 season without Tyreek, who was injured on the first series of the opener. His stats:

 

25-of-33 for 378 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT

30-of-44 for 443 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT

27-of-37 for 374 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT

24-of-42 for 315 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT

22-of-39 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

 

That's an average of 25-of-39 (64.1%) for 366 yards, 2.2 TDs, 0 INTs and 30 pts per game. 

 

Earlier this year, the Chiefs played the Steelers without Kelce and with Tyreek limited (season low snaps, just two catches). Mahomes went 23-of-30 for 258 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, and left the game early, having completed passes to nine different receivers.

 

No one will dispute he doesn't benefit from being around good players. But I'd almost guarantee you can line him up with second rate talent and he's still going to operate a top 5 offense in the league. KC tried desperately to find a #2 WR in the offseason and even during the season (signed Josh Gordon). He has lots of speed around him at WR, but outside of Tyreek it's pretty patchwork at the WR position with Pringle, Hardman, Robinson, Gordon, etc.

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

27 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It’s a great idea…. Hopefully McD isn’t all talk and actually finds a way to improve that aspect of his coaching. Great Monday through Saturday coach. He’s below average on Sunday’s. 

He will keep improving, every great coach was good first.

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Check out the other thread - Kelce mic'd up. Kelce basically tells Tyreek that if he cuts inside he (Kelce) would "get in the way" (meaning a pick play, and he's smart enough to sell it for the refs) and that's exactly what they did. And then he calls the next play too, not that it was any surprise since he broke free and simply set up far enough down the field to get in Butker's easy FG range. [Sigh]

Pick play?  There was nobody to pick.  There were 4 linemen and 7 deep in coverage.  It was essentially a downfield screen where Kelce and Pringle were clearing the way and Tyreek just ran behind them as fast as he could.

[The Frankish Reich]

7 minutes ago, beebe said:

Mahomes played the first five games of the 2019 season without Tyreek, who was injured on the first series of the opener. His stats:

 

25-of-33 for 378 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT

30-of-44 for 443 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT

27-of-37 for 374 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT

24-of-42 for 315 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT

22-of-39 for 321 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

 

That's an average of 25-of-39 (64.1%) for 366 yards, 2.2 TDs, 0 INTs and 30 pts per game. 

 

Earlier this year, the Chiefs played the Steelers without Kelce and with Tyreek limited (season low snaps, just two catches). Mahomes went 23-of-30 for 258 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, and left the game early, having completed passes to nine different receivers.

 

No one will dispute he doesn't benefit from being around good players. But I'd almost guarantee you can line him up with second rate talent and he's still going to operate a top 5 offense in the league. KC tried desperately to find a #2 WR in the offseason and even during the season (signed Josh Gordon). He has lots of speed around him at WR, but outside of Tyreek it's pretty patchwork at the WR position with Pringle, Hardman, Robinson, Gordon, etc.

 

 

Excellent post. Bills fans need to get over the whole Mahomes v Josh thing. Bottom line: they're now clearly the 2 best in the game, and they will both succeed eventually no matter who you put out there to catch those passes.

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Pick play?  There was nobody to pick.  There were 4 linemen and 7 deep in coverage.  It was essentially a downfield screen where Kelce and Pringle were clearing the way and Tyreek just ran behind them as fast as he could.

Probably right - I guess he was talking about clearing a post-catch path.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks, Hap.  I see this.   They talk about how Kelce is a former QB and sees the field so well.  It may be that Kelce runs a lot of option routes, where he makes the read and cut, and then Mahomes reads him.   

 

Still, why can't Knox and Allen do that?   Is it really so hard?   I think part of it is what I said, which is that the Chiefs create a lot of space for Kelce to work in, so that when he sees his option there's a lot of room to run.  

 

Kelce is just not so physically impressive, in terms of speed, quickness, or change of direction, that he should be doing things that Knox can't do.  

 

Beasley and Allen do that.

 

Diggs and Allen do that some, with more miscues than I'd like to see.

 

It's all upstairs for Knox.  He only just this year learned to read the D and figure out who he was supposed to block given the post-snap adjustments on D.  He only just this year learned to run crisp routes. 

 

He's still progressing in his ability to learn to read the coverage and put himself where they aren't, while giving "good body language" to Allen.

 

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Beasley and Allen do that.

 

Diggs and Allen do that some, with more miscues than I'd like to see.

 

It's all upstairs for Knox.  He only just this year learned to read the D and figure out who he was supposed to block given the post-snap adjustments on D.  He only just this year learned to run crisp routes. 

 

He's still progressing in his ability to learn to read the coverage and put himself where they aren't, while giving "good body language" to Allen.

 

Thanks. 

 

I'm not challenging what you say here, but I'm curious:  How do you know these things?   Just from observation?   Or have you read it or heard it somewhere?

[Saint Doug]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

42-36 KC

 

These two QB's are so evenly matched right now it might not have made any difference in the outcome.

Not sure about this. My guess is most KC fans never even knew Davis existed before this game. Now they do. My point is that I think Allen makes better use of the talent we have at receiver and we sure don’t have a Kelce or Hill. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks. 

 

I'm not challenging what you say here, but I'm curious:  How do you know these things?   Just from observation?   Or have you read it or heard it somewhere?

 

In this case, primarily observation. 

 

If you're interesting and want confirmation, Cover1 have had some film room cutups last season where they talked about Knox not being a very physical player and about his route running; in a presser I think last season, Knox discussed Allen talking to him about "giving him good body language" on a route.  But these were embedded in other pieces so they were hard to find.

 

In contrast, for example in Knox 2nd TD against the Pats you could see he was very physical with the DB and got his hips in front of him, enabling the throw.

 

You can also look at his route trees for games where he ran enough to be charted and see how they've changed.

 

Again, Knox has been a very much improved player this season and it shows in many ways, on film as well as big jump in catch % (from mid-50s to 69%), same 4 drops but on 2x the number of receptions and higher targets, so lower %....but he can still be taken away by physical coverage and I think when we see the all-22 of yesterday (if we have the stomach for that) it will be shown to be so

 

HTH

[msw2112]

An earlier post mentioned Kelce's ability to find openings in the defense being attribued to him being a former QB.  For what it's worth, Knox is also a former QB who switched to TE in college and hasn't played the position for that long.  He may develop more savvy over time.  He has clearly improved over time with the Bills.

 

In regard to some of the other posts, I love Allen and wouldn't trade him for any player in the league, even Mahomes, but I think we need to stop with the narrative that Mahomes isn't very good or that he's going to be exposed in the future.  The guy, like Allen, is a phenomenal football player and along with Allen, the best in the game.  Both had lulls this season as defenses adjusted, but they were both able to overcome the adjustments that the defenses made to return to the highest level of quarterbacking.  I could deal without the "Patrick price" commercials and all of the ball-washing from the media, but you've got to give the guy his due.  He's great and will be in the HOF.  He also has 2 SB appearances and a ring.  It looks like we'll have to wait another year to surpass him in the playoffs, but I think the Bills will learn from this season that they can't dick around early in the season and lose games to inferior opponents like the Steelers, Patriots and Jags.  They need to lock up home field for the playoffs and are more than capable of doing it next year.

Edited January 25, 2022 by msw2112

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Mahomes would’ve had McD on the Bills, so I’d say the Chiefs would’ve won by a similar margin. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

For starters, it would have been played in OP.  I don’t know how that affects the outcome, though.

Allen and Mahomes are fated to be inextricably linked now as I see it. I think the Brady/Manning comparisons are premature but between the past and future playoff games and draft history their careers are going to be contrasted at every opportunity.

 

It’s not inconceivable that they could have each ended up on the different side, hence the question. 

[mead107]

TBD Fantasy land 

 

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

42-36 KC

 

These two QB's are so evenly matched right now it might not have made any difference in the outcome.

Agree… both QBs were amazing.  I was ready to throw objects across the room whenever Mahomes evaded pressure and scrambled for yet another first down, but I’m positive Chiefs fans were the same on many of our offensive plays.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

In regard to some of the other posts, I love Allen and wouldn't trade him for any player in the league, even Mahomes, but I think we need to stop with the narrative that Mahomes isn't very good or that he's going to be exposed in the future.

 

Curious, where are you seeing this "narrative"?

[Niagara Dude]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Interested in folks’ perspective: If the QBs switched teams, what’s the final score?

 

I’m saying 50-35 Chiefs

I got a better one.... how about HC switch teams?

[Billl]

24 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen and Mahomes are fated to be inextricably linked now as I see it. I think the Brady/Manning comparisons are premature but between the past and future playoff games and draft history their careers are going to be contrasted at every opportunity.

 

It’s not inconceivable that they could have each ended up on the different side, hence the question. 

Sunday’s game was basically two historically talented QBs playing perfect football.  It was unlike anything I’ve ever seen.  The comparisons are inevitable.  The only question that has been answered so far is ‘who has a higher ceiling’ and the answer is neither.  They are both capable of squeezing every drop out of a game.  There’s simply no other way to put it.  Brady and Manning were never capable of doing what those two dudes did on Sunday.  
 

I’ve always said that Manning was the most perfect QB I ever saw when things were going well, but Brady was the best when things weren’t going his way.  Manning simply couldn’t overcome adversity as well, and he had more bad games than Brady.

 

If I’m arguing for one over the other between Josh and Pat so far, I’m taking Pat because his bad games are less bad and less often than Josh’s.  The difference on Sunday may have been what happened on November 7th.  Both of them had bad days.  Pat’s bad day was 20/37 for 166 yards, 1 TD, and no turnovers.  Josh’s was 31/47 for 264 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 turnovers.  Chiefs beat Green Bay without Rodgers, and Buffalo lost to Jacksonville.  Change either outcome, and that game would be played in OP.

 

These guys are both getting better, and it’s hard to imagine what’s next for them.  Mahomes is learning how to take what the defense gives him and be methodical while Allen is learning how to stay calm and harness his ability.  I’m biased for my guy, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Allen is the biggest threat to his legacy for the next several years.  (And the Bills had better be careful not to Cam Newton his career by letting him take so many hits.)

Edited January 25, 2022 by Billl

[947]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm interested in this.  I get that Kelce's performance is a huge upgrade over Knox's performance, but why is that?   Except for perhaps his brains, I don't see the difference.   I mean, Kelce's a little bigger and maybe is a little better blocker, but that's not why Kelce is so much more valuable.   Kelce isn't some superstar at getting separation - you watch his routes, and besides making good reads, he just isn't a guy who leaves defenders in his dust.

Kelce is an elite player, but what he did against us wasn't all him, it was our defense letting him (and T Hill) do it so easily. If Knox had traded teams with Kelce, he'd have done the exact same thing in that game.

 

All game, Mahomes was completing throws to receivers that were wide open by 5 yards. We stayed in the the soft zone with safeties way too deep, and KC just kept running zone-beater crossing routes. Every time, Mahomes had multiple wide open options to not just catch the ball, but get a bunch YAC since our defenders were so far off. We didn't even force Mahomes to take any chances, the few poor throws he made were just mistakes on his part.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, sullim4 said:

 

I think the more interesting question is - did the team hold back either quarterback.

 

McD, for all the credit he rightly deserves for turning the culture around, has had a horrible track record of in-game coaching.  His win percentage on challenges, as well as how his defense handles end of game situations (Arizona last year, KC this year) makes me think he needs someone like Ernie Adams is to Belichick.  He needs someone in the booth that isn't wrapped up in the emotion of the moment to provide input on stuff like this.

 

I personally think that Allen + Kelce + Hill would've had a field day.  Kelce represents a huge upgrade over Knox, and Hill is a #1 that has McKenzie-type speed.  Add Pringle, CEH, and McKinnon and I just think their skill players are better than Diggs, Beasley, Davis, McKenzie, and Singletary.

Their WR1, TE1, RB1 and HC1 are better, faster, stronger, smarter. I would put Josh slightly ahead of Mahomes based on his better scrambling ability. 

Both defenses are good (not great) but KC has superior pass rushers. When Kelcie (33 this fall) retires, the advantage will shift.