The Great Squib Kickoff Controversy - Have reviewed the film like it was Zapruder

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’d expect this thread in any message board other than the Buffalo Bills. The kickoff was NOT the big mistake! Don’t ANY of you remember the Music City Miracle? The mistake was not holding the receivers when KC got the ball at the 25 yard line.

End thread! 

Our Special Teams unit that year was awful.  We've been flawless in covering kicks all year.  You kick it short of the goal line and trust with what got you here.  Horribly mind boggling bad decision to kick it through the end zone.

[GoBills808]

Cover1 claims the call was a squib and Bass never got word.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Cover1 claims the call was a squib and Bass never got word.

 

What was their basis for that?

[Billsfan1972]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Cover1 claims the call was a squib and Bass never got word.

So the most important player was not told????  Gross incompetence.

[Nextmanup]

 

It's worth pointing out that a non-touchback kick off was the preferred play by the Bills.  The touchback kickoff was the WRONG PLAY by the Bills.

 

HOWEVER--the touchback only increased KC's win probability from 3.4% to 4.1%, at least according to Brian Burke's model!

 

Still an OBJECTIVELY WRONG ERROR BY THE BILLS, but one with a very small impact on the game.  

 

The real talking point is how incorrectly we played defense on the ensuing plays.

 

We played as though our coaching staff thought we were ahead by more than 3 points and didn't really defend a FG attempt against an opponent with 3 timeouts.  It was baffling.  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Nextmanup

[Billsfan1972]

48 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

 

It's worth pointing out that a non-touchback kick off was the preferred play by the Bills.  The touchback kickoff was the WRONG PLAY by the Bills.

 

HOWEVER--the touchback only increased KC's win probability from 3.4% to 4.1%, at least according to Brian Burke's model!

 

Still an OBJECTIVELY WRONG ERROR BY THE BILLS, but one with a very small impact on the game.  

 

The real talking point is how incorrectly we played defense on the ensuing plays.

 

We played as though our coaching staff thought we were ahead by more than 3 points and didn't really defend a FG attempt against an opponent with 3 timeouts.  It was baffling.  

 

 

 

 

 

Sick looking at that defense.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

How does a kicker not get a special teams play call? 

57 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

 

It's worth pointing out that a non-touchback kick off was the preferred play by the Bills.  The touchback kickoff was the WRONG PLAY by the Bills.

 

HOWEVER--the touchback only increased KC's win probability from 3.4% to 4.1%, at least according to Brian Burke's model!

 

Still an OBJECTIVELY WRONG ERROR BY THE BILLS, but one with a very small impact on the game.  

 

The real talking point is how incorrectly we played defense on the ensuing plays.

 

We played as though our coaching staff thought we were ahead by more than 3 points and didn't really defend a FG attempt against an opponent with 3 timeouts.  It was baffling.  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not saying they did, but it honestly looks like the Bills coaching staff threw the game on purpose. Or at least some of the coaches did.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

How does a kicker not get a special teams play call? 

I'm not saying they did, but it honestly looks like the Bills coaching staff threw the game on purpose. Or at least some of the coaches did.

Then why even mention something so stupid?

 

Someone made the wrong call, and McD is not going to throw that person or persons under the bus.  Plain and simple. As for squibbing, Sal on WGR said the other day he was right next to Jay Feely on the sideline and asked him if they should squib kick.  And Feely said no because you can't predict what would happen on a return.  Felly said you put it in the end zone and have your D stop them for 13 seconds.   Others like Romo had different thoughts, which shows one thing.  THERE WERE NO ABSOLUTE CORRECT ANSWERS.  Let's say they squib or pooch kick to around the 10 yard line.  They run it back for maybe 10-15 yards in 3 seconds, fall down.  Then they have three time out with plays to move into FG position, with Mahomes.  What are the odds that he doesn't get that done?  No different than him having the ball like he did on the 25.  And the reason for that is because our defense played to not lose, instead of to win.  The answer to why we lost has nothing to do with the kick.  It has to do with the fact that the D could not, or more accurately would not, play aggressively enough to stop them from gaining 50 yards in 5 seconds.  The way the D played those last two plays, I have no doubt the Chiefs could have moved into FG position even starting from their own 10 yard line.

 

If I had to guess, McD told Farwell to go normal kick and Bass did what he was told.  And the person he does not want to throw under the bus is Frazier, because Frazier's calls cost us the game, and he doesn't want to throw him under the bus when he's getting HC consideration.

 

If Frazier doesn't get a HC gig, then McD either needs to make a change, or he and Frazier need to decide their defense is going to have a more aggressive mindset next yera.  You can't talk about being more aggressive on offense, and then play so passively on defense.  When you have a QB like Josh and as high powered an offense as the Bills do, you can afford to be more aggressive and take more chances on defense.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Then why even mention something so stupid?

 

Someone made the wrong call, and McD is not going to throw that person or persons under the bus.  Plain and simple. As for squibbing, Sal on WGR said the other day he was right next to Jay Feely on the sideline and asked him if they should squib kick.  And Feely said no because you can't predict what would happen on a return.  Felly said you put it in the end zone and have your D stop them for 13 seconds.   Others like Romo had different thoughts, which shows one thing.  THERE WERE NO ABSOLUTE CORRECT ANSWERS.  Let's say they squib or pooch kick to around the 10 yard line.  They run it back for maybe 10-15 yards in 3 seconds, fall down.  Then they have three time out with plays to move into FG position, with Mahomes.  What are the odds that he doesn't get that done?  No different than him having the ball like he did on the 25.  And the reason for that is because our defense played to not lose, instead of to win.  The answer to why we lost has nothing to do with the kick.  It has to do with the fact that the D could not, or more accurately would not, play aggressively enough to stop them from gaining 50 yards in 5 seconds.  The way the D played those last two plays, I have no doubt the Chiefs could have moved into FG position even starting from their own 10 yard line.

 

If I had to guess, McD told Farwell to go normal kick and Bass did what he was told.  And the person he does not want to throw under the bus is Frazier, because Frazier's calls cost us the game, and he doesn't want to throw him under the bus when he's getting HC consideration.

 

If Frazier doesn't get a HC gig, then McD either needs to make a change, or he and Frazier need to decide their defense is going to have a more aggressive mindset next yera.  You can't talk about being more aggressive on offense, and then play so passively on defense.  When you have a QB like Josh and as high powered an offense as the Bills do, you can afford to be more aggressive and take more chances on defense.

Why? Because it's such a terrible call.

 

Listen, 1 of 2 things happened. Obada was supposed to jam Kelce and missed the call or the coaches threw the game.

 

There is just no other explanation. Add that to the kicker of all people missing a kickoff play call and it looks really bad.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Then why even mention something so stupid?

 

Someone made the wrong call, and McD is not going to throw that person or persons under the bus.  Plain and simple. As for squibbing, Sal on WGR said the other day he was right next to Jay Feely on the sideline and asked him if they should squib kick.  And Feely said no because you can't predict what would happen on a return.  Felly said you put it in the end zone and have your D stop them for 13 seconds.   Others like Romo had different thoughts, which shows one thing.  THERE WERE NO ABSOLUTE CORRECT ANSWERS.  Let's say they squib or pooch kick to around the 10 yard line.  They run it back for maybe 10-15 yards in 3 seconds, fall down.  Then they have three time out with plays to move into FG position, with Mahomes.  What are the odds that he doesn't get that done?  No different than him having the ball like he did on the 25.  And the reason for that is because our defense played to not lose, instead of to win.  The answer to why we lost has nothing to do with the kick.  It has to do with the fact that the D could not, or more accurately would not, play aggressively enough to stop them from gaining 50 yards in 5 seconds.  The way the D played those last two plays, I have no doubt the Chiefs could have moved into FG position even starting from their own 10 yard line.

 

If I had to guess, McD told Farwell to go normal kick and Bass did what he was told.  And the person he does not want to throw under the bus is Frazier, because Frazier's calls cost us the game, and he doesn't want to throw him under the bus when he's getting HC consideration.

 

If Frazier doesn't get a HC gig, then McD either needs to make a change, or he and Frazier need to decide their defense is going to have a more aggressive mindset next yera.  You can't talk about being more aggressive on offense, and then play so passively on defense.  When you have a QB like Josh and as high powered an offense as the Bills do, you can afford to be more aggressive and take more chances on defense.

I showed the math and stats that to me support that a kick to the 5-10 yard line was the best bet.  I know that was what I was shouting for them to do.  Bass was money all year doing it and the ST coverages were great.  Would have run a minimum 4-5 seconds not 3 imo & that would have given KC no time to run two plays to get to the 32 (which is where they ended up).  At best would have been a 60 yard attempt.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[skibum]

There's no way he would have overshot it that much if he was trying to kick it short of the goal line. Bass is an ace at those kicks. 

 

And it really doesn't matter if he did one or the other kick. Squib kick is risky with the returners KC has, also because it's a finesse kick that could go wrong. Kick out of the EZ is a guaranteed outcome. Neither is the perfect play. 

 

Bottom line - to my eyes, the 13 Seconds debacle is on Frazier for calling Prevent defense. I thought that was malpractice. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by skibum

[SoCal Deek]

People get so locked in on trying prove their point. NOBODY is saying that the squib kick isn’t an option! The point is, if you’all want listen for a second, that the lack of a squib kick is NOT what lost that game. Sheeesh! 

Edited January 26, 2022 by SoCal Deek

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

People get so locked in on trying prove their point. NOBODY is saying that the squib kick isn’t an option! The point is, if you’all want listen for a second, that the lack of a squib kick is NOT what lost that game. Sheeesh! 

My view is that it was....  There were a # of options to get through 13 seconds, which should have been simple.  Statistical odds already have proven/shown a squib/short kick was the best option.

 

This thread was pointing out that Bass planned to kick it out of the endzone for a touchback (whether someone forgot to tell him to do different is another debate, but he definitely wanted to get a touchback), and that every stat points to it being the better call and that the Bill defence on those short kicks was # 3 in the league.  Every second counted.

 

This isn't a random play during the game (& yes there were many questionable ones, and great plays too during the game)

 

It was 13 freaking seconds & the Bills Coaches royally screwed it up.😡 

[since79]

If the message on the kick did not get delivered, it’s a failure regardless of which was chosen.  It puts the minds on the sideline like WTF happened instead of on their job at had.  Everything is altered after because of doubt.  Human nature kicks in.  

 

Everything that happens influences events later.  Jones Penalty running out of bounds forcing a re-kick and big return puts you on your heels on all coverage teams later.   Hills TD forces deeper zone on last few plays of regulation because fear of short pass going to the house.  

 

Fear and doubt alter judgement.  

Edited January 26, 2022 by since79

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? Because it's such a terrible call.

 

Listen, 1 of 2 things happened. Obada was supposed to jam Kelce and missed the call or the coaches threw the game.

 

There is just no other explanation. Add that to the kicker of all people missing a kickoff play call and it looks really bad.

Suggesting the staff looked like they threw the game is monumentally stupid.

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I showed the math and stats that to me support that a kick to the 5-10 yard line was the best bet.  I know that was what I was shouting for them to do.  Bass was money all year doing it and the ST coverages were great.  Would have run a minimum 4-5 seconds not 3 imo & that would have given KC no time to run two plays to get to the 32 (which is where they ended up).  At best would have been a 60 yard attempt.

And a guy who actually kicked in the NFL disagrees with you.  I bet they would have called a fair catch and given Mahomes the ball.  And they would have marched down into FG position because of the prevent defense which prevented nothing.

 

When your defense gives up 50 yards in two plays when they have to get a stop, the blame is on the defense.  It is mind bogglingly simple.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Suggesting the staff looked like they threw the game is monumentally stupid.

And a guy who actually kicked in the NFL disagrees with you.  I bet they would have called a fair catch and given Mahomes the ball.  And they would have marched down into FG position because of the prevent defense which prevented nothing.

 

When your defense gives up 50 yards in two plays when they have to get a stop, the blame is on the defense.  It is mind bogglingly simple.

Is it? Did you see the plays called? Lol. They literally gave them field goal range. If I was going to throw the game i'de call those exact same plays.

[Coffeesforclosers]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? Because it's such a terrible call.

 

Listen, 1 of 2 things happened. Obada was supposed to jam Kelce and missed the call or the coaches threw the game.

 

There is just no other explanation. Add that to the kicker of all people missing a kickoff play call and it looks really bad.

 

Yeah, the Cover 1 guys said that Wallace's leverage on Kelce makes sense if Obada's assignment was to jam Kelce, re-route him to Wallace then drop into a shallow zone to spy Mahomes.

 

Except he didn't touch Kelce, Obada fires off the line to rush Mahomes. Kelce gets a free release down the hash with Wallace playing the wrong leverage in the wrong position.  Efe didn't do his job, or Efe was told to do the wrong job.  

 

McD is not going to throw anybody under bus, be they player or coach, whether it's Frazier, Farwell, Bass, Obada or anyone else.  But once they ***** up the squib kick call, everything went to ***** and the coaching staff started making very basic mistakes.  McD has a share of that blame, because the buck stops with him.  But I'm scratching my ***** head that someone with Frazier's experience completely went to pieces.  

 

I think Farwell *might* be a dead man walking...but if he isn't I get that too.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Is it? Did you see the plays called? Lol. They literally gave them field goal range. If I was going to throw the game i'de call those exact same plays.

To suggest that the Bills coaches threw the game is the most absurd thing written around here in a long time.  And I would imagine the vast majority would agree.  Quit being an idiot.

Edited January 26, 2022 by oldmanfan

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Suggesting the staff looked like they threw the game is monumentally stupid.

And a guy who actually kicked in the NFL disagrees with you.  I bet they would have called a fair catch and given Mahomes the ball.  And they would have marched down into FG position because of the prevent defense which prevented nothing.

 

When your defense gives up 50 yards in two plays when they have to get a stop, the blame is on the defense.  It is mind bogglingly simple.

A fair catch at the 5-10 yard line means an extra 5-20 yards.  That happens and only a hail mary wins them the game.  Think about it, there is no fair catch if kicked shallow.... Bass was proficient at kicks like that all season with his 3-4 step approach.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A fair catch at the 5-10 yard line means an extra 5-20 yards.  That happens and only a hail mary wins them the game.  Think about it, there is no fair catch if kicked shallow.... Bass was proficient at kicks like that all season with his 3-4 step approach.

Think about it.  They call a fair catch no matter where the ball comes down.  That gives them 13 seconds.  Say it's on the 10.  Because of the stupid defenses Frazier called they move right down the middle of the field, still get a FG try.  

 

You think you know it all and you don't.  No one knows what Reid would have had his team do or not do.  What we do know is our defense let them walk down the field 50 yards in 10 seconds.  It is hardly a stretch to think they could have made another 10-15 in that time, because our defense was determined to play passively.  

 

They lost the game because the defense could not hold them that last 13 seconds, and then they let them walk right down the field again in OT.  That is the reason.  There is no other reason.