An onside kick in playoff OT

[Livinginthepast]

Yes, I know what you are thinking, this is the stupidest, most preposterous idea ever proposed and a waste of a post, but I did seriously think about this after we lost the coin toss on Sunday night to start the OT. We had just blown the game, the Bills defense was utterly gassed and more importantly mentally defeated. Kicking off to them and giving them the ball was going to inevitably result in what we had just seen in their last two drives ( a quick drive and mostly likely a TD score). I had no faith that the Bills could stop Mahomes and my worst fears came true when it ended soon after. I wish that McD had somehow summoned up all his courage and gone for Bass to do an onside kick. There is no way that the Chiefs would have expected it in that pressure situation and their special teams would have been backing up to set up a return.  The chances of recovery would have been much higher than your average onside kick. And if it failed? and KC got the ball on their own 40 or 50? Well you were probably going to lose anyway and you may just have sped up the inevitable. Or maybe your defense pulls off some unlikely miracle and intercepts Mahomes or they fumble.   Sean Payton did the onside kick at the start of the 2nd half in the Saints SB win over the Colts and it swung the game. Probably the ballsiest coaching move in SB history. But this?? This would be the ballsiest call of all time. Of course I very much doubt that anyone on the Bills staff even considered this possible avenue or would have had the bravery/ derring do to try it. But when I look at how the game ended in OT why not gamble? Especially with these OT rules?

[skibum]

10/11 playoff coin-toss winners have gone on to win the game since the new rules came into effect. So I can't see why an onside kick wouldn't be worth a try.

 

Defense is always going to be more gassed than Offense at the end of regulation. I think that's why you rarely see even a top-tier defense get the big stop in OT. 

[Einstein]

If you lose the coin toss, you’re probably going to lose the game.

 

If you lose the onside kick attempt, you’re definitely going to lose the game.

 

I’ll take “probably” over “definitely”.

[MJS]

Well, if you don't get it you get crucified by the fans and the media for giving the other team a short field. On the other hand, it is gutsy, so maybe some would like it.

 

You have to have certain keys, though. You can't just go kick it onside. You have to be looking for the defenders not paying attention, or leaving too large of a gap in the center of the field, etc.

[RyanC883]

22 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Yes, I know what you are thinking, this is the stupidest, most preposterous idea ever proposed and a waste of a post, but I did seriously think about this after we lost the coin toss on Sunday night to start the OT. We had just blown the game, the Bills defense was utterly gassed and more importantly mentally defeated. Kicking off to them and giving them the ball was going to inevitably result in what we had just seen in their last two drives ( a quick drive and mostly likely a TD score). I had no faith that the Bills could stop Mahomes and my worst fears came true when it ended soon after. I wish that McD had somehow summoned up all his courage and gone for Bass to do an onside kick. There is no way that the Chiefs would have expected it in that pressure situation and their special teams would have been backing up to set up a return.  The chances of recovery would have been much higher than your average onside kick. And if it failed? and KC got the ball on their own 40 or 50? Well you were probably going to lose anyway and you may just have sped up the inevitable. Or maybe your defense pulls off some unlikely miracle and intercepts Mahomes or they fumble.   Sean Payton did the onside kick at the start of the 2nd half in the Saints SB win over the Colts and it swung the game. Probably the ballsiest coaching move in SB history. But this?? This would be the ballsiest call of all time. Of course I very much doubt that anyone on the Bills staff even considered this possible avenue or would have had the bravery/ derring do to try it. But when I look at how the game ended in OT why not gamble? Especially with these OT rules?

 

I actually had the same thought yesterday after the game.  And, if KC gets it in FG range, they likely just kick it (well, if we had enough TO's).  Then we get the ball back, and that at point, Allen could likely have gotten into FG range.  Just something to think about. Crazy, yes, but sometimes it works.   Not endorsing the idea, but an interesting thought.  

 

At the end of the day, the idea is no more crazy than what we actually did.  

16 minutes ago, skibum said:

10/11 playoff coin-toss winners have gone on to win the game since the new rules came into effect. So I can't see why an onside kick wouldn't be worth a try.

 

Defense is always going to be more gassed than Offense at the end of regulation. I think that's why you rarely see even a top-tier defense get the big stop in OT. 

 

seems the half-a** rules did not accomplish much since it's still sudden death.  We should not be gassed due to our rotation of average DL men.  In any event, I think a playoff OT change is coming.  OT may not change in the regular season perhaps, but it must change in the playoffs.  

Edited January 25, 2022 by RyanC883

[st pete gogolak]

I think a more intriguing "what if" is if Bills went for two after the last Davis touchdown.  You're up 2.  If you are successful, you're up 4 and KC has to score a touchdown to win.  KC is utterly deflated at that point and if you have any "special" two point try, you pull it out - Allen power sweep, Knox pass to Allen, etc.  If it's unsuccessful, your D can't play it safe or it loses the game.  To me, it's like going for it on fourth down.  "OK boys, here is where we win the game."
 

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

I think a more intriguing "what if" is if Bills went for two after the last Davis touchdown.  You're up 2.  If you are successful, you're up 4 and KC has to score a touchdown to win.  KC is utterly deflated at that point and if you have any "special" two point try, you pull it out - Allen power sweep, Knox pass to Allen, etc.  If it's unsuccessful, your D can't play it safe or it loses the game.  To me, it's like going for it on fourth down.  "OK boys, here is where we win the game."
 

Remember Tennessee? They didn’t have the balls to do it

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

I think a more intriguing "what if" is if Bills went for two after the last Davis touchdown.  You're up 2.  If you are successful, you're up 4 and KC has to score a touchdown to win.  KC is utterly deflated at that point and if you have any "special" two point try, you pull it out - Allen power sweep, Knox pass to Allen, etc.  If it's unsuccessful, your D can't play it safe or it loses the game.  To me, it's like going for it on fourth down.  "OK boys, here is where we win the game."
 

The only thing I'll say here is that if the Bills go for two there and DON'T get it, and the Chiefs kick a field goal in regulation to win it.....all of Bills mafia and the football watching world would be absolutely SCREAMING at the mismanagement by McDermott. The way things played out at least gave the Bills the CHANCE to win it in overtime. 

As it turned out, of course, McDermott mismanaged the ending and the Bills lost the game ANYWAY, but...

I just mean to point out that when it comes to Monday Morning Armchair Coaching, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

[Niagara Dude]

1 hour ago, Livinginthepast said:

Yes, I know what you are thinking, this is the stupidest, most preposterous idea ever proposed and a waste of a post, but I did seriously think about this after we lost the coin toss on Sunday night to start the OT. We had just blown the game, the Bills defense was utterly gassed and more importantly mentally defeated. Kicking off to them and giving them the ball was going to inevitably result in what we had just seen in their last two drives ( a quick drive and mostly likely a TD score). I had no faith that the Bills could stop Mahomes and my worst fears came true when it ended soon after. I wish that McD had somehow summoned up all his courage and gone for Bass to do an onside kick. There is no way that the Chiefs would have expected it in that pressure situation and their special teams would have been backing up to set up a return.  The chances of recovery would have been much higher than your average onside kick. And if it failed? and KC got the ball on their own 40 or 50? Well you were probably going to lose anyway and you may just have sped up the inevitable. Or maybe your defense pulls off some unlikely miracle and intercepts Mahomes or they fumble.   Sean Payton did the onside kick at the start of the 2nd half in the Saints SB win over the Colts and it swung the game. Probably the ballsiest coaching move in SB history. But this?? This would be the ballsiest call of all time. Of course I very much doubt that anyone on the Bills staff even considered this possible avenue or would have had the bravery/ derring do to try it. But when I look at how the game ended in OT why not gamble? Especially with these OT rules?

I think it made perfect sense because of shorter field our defence would be exposed to defending the least amount of plays should you not recover. Our defence was gassed and we had no confidence in getting a stop.  I won't blame Sean for not doing this but it was something that should have been considered .

[Southern_Bills]

Why not, it honestly couldn't end any worse. 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

44 minutes ago, Logic said:

The only thing I'll say here is that if the Bills go for two there and DON'T get it, and the Chiefs kick a field goal in regulation to win it.....all of Bills mafia and the football watching world would be absolutely SCREAMING at the mismanagement by McDermott. The way things played out at least gave the Bills the CHANCE to win it in overtime. 

As it turned out, of course, McDermott mismanaged the ending and the Bills lost the game ANYWAY, but...

I just mean to point out that when it comes to Monday Morning Armchair Coaching, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Yeah, and don't forget - even if they DO kick a FG to tie it, there's still a 50% chance of winning the coin flip.

So ... no, you don't go for 2 there.

[CapeBreton]

In hindsight it seems like an onside kick might be worth trying there, seeing as we couldn’t stop them anyways and the coaches should have known our defense was screwed. These coaches have no balls though. How did we not call any OT timeouts too? ***** me. 
 

was the same when we punted on 4th and a foot but KC just went right up the field anyways. We were trusting our defense to make a stop but they couldn’t. 

 

[beebe]

The best way to answer these types of hypotheticals is to look at it from the perspective of the opposing team or their fans. As a Chiefs fan, if you offered me the ball at my own 25-yard line guaranteed, or a 90% chance of recovering an onside kick near mid field, I'm taking the ball at my own 25 every time. It would be torture watching the ball bounce around on the ground knowing that a Bills recovery puts them in position to move the ball 20 yards into game-winning field goal range.

 

A surprise onside kick would probably be recovered close to 20% of the time. The chances of Buffalo holding KC to a non TD drive in OT probably was something close to 33% from the 25-yard line; and perhaps close to 20% from midfield.

 

It doesn't sound crazy to me at all. 

[Livinginthepast]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Well, at least you nailed one part of your post. Good job.

Yet you replied?

[st pete gogolak]

50 minutes ago, Logic said:

The only thing I'll say here is that if the Bills go for two there and DON'T get it, and the Chiefs kick a field goal in regulation to win it.....all of Bills mafia and the football watching world would be absolutely SCREAMING at the mismanagement by McDermott. The way things played out at least gave the Bills the CHANCE to win it in overtime. 

As it turned out, of course, McDermott mismanaged the ending and the Bills lost the game ANYWAY, but...

I just mean to point out that when it comes to Monday Morning Armchair Coaching, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I agree.  You're also telling your defense that you don't think you can stop KC with 13 seconds left on the clock.

[Nextmanup]

The reality is that win probability on an onside kick in that situation would have to be WAY LESS than simply kicking off in a normal fashion.

I don't have the exact numbers on that, but that would be my guess.

 

The plan might "sound" convincing to you, but it would be unbelievably risky and likely to fail.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Nextmanup

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, Livinginthepast said:

Yet you replied?

Aye, I did. And with the positivity of giving you credit for the bolded part being correct. 

[K-9]

I’m think McD called for the onside kick to start OT, but there was a problem with the execution. I’ve heard this from the beat writers and podcasters as well. 

[Livinginthepast]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Aye, I did. And with the positivity of giving you credit for the bolded part being correct. 

Like I said at first glance it seems like a ludicrous idea but if you get past the untraditional nature of the idea, I think it actually makes more sense to at least try something. I literally liken the Bills defense after the coin toss to a condemned man being led to a firing squad. You might as well try something on the off chance it might work.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Livinginthepast

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Like I said at first glance it seems like a ludicrous idea but if get past the untraditional nature of the idea, I think it actually makes more sense to at least try something. I literally liken the Bills defense after the coin toss to a condemned man being led to a firing squad. You might as well try something on the off chance it might work.

Little too risky imo. Especially considering the QB you would be giving the short field to because chances are very slim to recover your onside kick. However, I can see it being more unexpected possibly catching them off guard.

 

But I personally wouldn't risk it. Wouldn't have had to worry about it if they  just squib kicked it with 13 sec , and play your regular defense instead of that B.S prevent and we would have won

Edited January 25, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins