13 seconds, 94.35% Buffalo win probability

[Nihilarian]

"The Bills had a 94.35% win probability when Tyler Bass lined up for the kickoff and sent it flying through end zone."

 

"It was the safe play, certainly. Returner Byron Pringle had two kick returns longer than 30 yards when the two teams played earlier this year and the Bills wanted to keep the ball out of his hands."

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/13-seconds-short-breaking-down-the-bills-decision-making-in-their-last-second-loss-to-the-chiefs/

 

"The only issue is the Bills should’ve been more focused on draining each of those final 13 seconds as quickly as possible. Allowing the Chiefs to take a touchback gives them a free 25 yards without losing any time. If Bass kicks it short of the end zone, say inside the 10 or even the 15-yard-line, Pringle would have needed to use some of that precious time to move the ball to where the drive started."

 

"The Bills were so desperate to keep the ball out of Pringle’s hands and risk a long return, which not only is poor self-scouting — the Bills allowed just 18 yards per kickoff return this year, second-best in the NFL — it’s poor logic. Would you rather your opponent have to carry the ball 65 yards with the clock ticking or just 45? With all their timeouts remaining, the Chiefs ate up 44 yards up the middle on just two plays, taking only 10 seconds off the clock."

 

Even announcer Tony Romo was questioning, why not a squib kick?

 

Wide right...MCM, throw back TD and now 13 seconds. Good lord, this will haunt Bills fans forever! 

 

Or, at least until they win a super bowl. 

 

Very questionable defensive calls to boot...Heartbroken 😭

Edited January 25, 2022 by Nihilarian

[DCofNC]

Way to beat the odds Bills.

[Another Fan]

On the other side to that I’m sure the odds were pretty slim (in general) they’d convert that 4th and 13 for the TD

 

Even I kinda thought field goal there with the 3 timeouts left 

[PetermansRedemption]

This will forever be ingrained in the Bills history. If I’m a Chiefs fan I’m getting a T-shirt made that just says “13 seconds”. What a horrible way to lose. I’m still in disbelief. 

[SCBills]

Worst part is that any QB could do what Mahomes did in those 13 seconds.  Zack Wilson could dump the ball off to Hill, unguarded, for 19 quick yards - and then throw to a wide open Kelce for 25 more.  

 

Two days later and I'm still in disbelief that our coaches lost us that game.  

[Big Turk]

I would have liked to see a high popup kick to around the 5. Would have had to return it, can't down it or fair catch it there...Bills were money on those type of kicks all year long, pinning teams inside their 15 with regularity.

 

[DCofNC]

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Worst part is that any QB could do what Mahomes did in those 13 seconds.  Zack Wilson could dump the ball off to Hill, unguarded, for 19 quick yards - and then throw to a wide open Kelce for 25 more.  

 

Two days later and I'm still in disbelief that our coaches lost us that game.  

How they just gave those guys a free run off the line is beyond comprehension.

[zow2]

21 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

This will forever be ingrained in the Bills history. If I’m a Chiefs fan I’m getting a T-shirt made that just says “13 seconds”. What a horrible way to lose. I’m still in disbelief. 

 

I'm getting angrier and angrier as the week goes on.  Hopefully as the game gets further in the rear view mirror i can get to acceptance.  

[Mat68]

Win Probability is pretty stupid.  Im sure Buffalo had the same odds of losing a minute prior.

[Freddie's Dead]

So you're telling me that the Bills found the 5.65% chance of choking it away....

 

[BuffaloBillies]

Could have rushed zero and flooded the field with DBs and LBs.

Mahommes had to pass it in under 2 seconds anyway both plays, D-Line was useless for those 2 plays (understandably)

Have 4 guys play man (up at the line), and the other 7 in a 4 (middle)-3 (deep) zone.

[Ross Murdock]

The odds should have been greater than that it seems? The stars were certainly all aligned for the Bills. From their ridiculously easy schedule, to having virtually the same great 13-3 squad from the previous year. 13 seconds of infamy. This debacle will not age well over time. Next year Bills will face almost EVERY good QB in the league. Truly will NEVER have an easier path to a world championship. Bengals aren't quite there yet, and the Rams/49ers both had flaws. I can accept a missed field goal, but 13 seconds? 36 hours later and the stench of this loss is even worse. I'd give McDermott 2 more years. We can't afford to waste Allen's premium years on another knucklehead. Great coaches would gladly come to Buffalo to coach Allen.      

[Norcalbillsfan]

Am I the only one that doesn't think that was a huge surprise? If the tables were turned and it was josh with 13 seconds and 3 timeouts only need a feild goal I would have felt great about it. Ya bills should have won but 94% is ridiculous, 3 timeouts is totally doable with either offense.

[HOUSE]

That 5.65% will get you every time

 

.

Edited January 25, 2022 by HOUSE

[colin]

we need some clarity on this, but im nearly convinced the bills "brain" trust thought kc was out of time outs.

 

free releases across the board and no one in real coverage is shocking.  we play so much fricken coverage as a d, they just had to do that for two plays.  so sad, so very very sad.

[Mark80]

23 minutes ago, Ross Murdock said:

The odds should have been greater than that it seems? The stars were certainly all aligned for the Bills. From their ridiculously easy schedule, to having virtually the same great 13-3 squad from the previous year. 13 seconds of infamy. This debacle will not age well over time. Next year Bills will face almost EVERY good QB in the league. Truly will NEVER have an easier path to a world championship. Bengals aren't quite there yet, and the Rams/49ers both had flaws. I can accept a missed field goal, but 13 seconds? 36 hours later and the stench of this loss is even worse. I'd give McDermott 2 more years. We can't afford to waste Allen's premium years on another knucklehead. Great coaches would gladly come to Buffalo to coach Allen.      

"The path was so easy this year" is such a bunch of crap.  The only path that is important is the one to the SB.  And that goes through the chiefs 3 years ago, 2 years ago, this season, and will next season as well.  And even if we won, we still had 2 more games to go.  So please stop with that non-sense. 

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, Mark80 said:

"The path was so easy this year" is such a bunch of crap.  The only path that is important is the one to the SB.  And that goes through the chiefs 3 years ago, 2 years ago, this season, and will next season as well.  And even if we won, we still had 2 more games to go.  So please stop with that non-sense. 

It’s far from nonsense . They had a great path set up to reach and win the Super Bowl. The Bills were staring at a home game vs an upstart Bengals team with Mahomes already dispatched. They would have been favored heavily to win. The Super Bowl opponent would not feature a QB named Brady or Rodgers. The Bills offense and Josh Allen were on a serious hot streak scoring 83 points in 2 games. They were healthy. It’s a rare opportunity missed. Bills would have been favored vs either Rams or SF. 

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

"The Bills had a 94.35% win probability when Tyler Bass lined up for the kickoff and sent it flying through end zone."

 

"It was the safe play, certainly. Returner Byron Pringle had two kick returns longer than 30 yards when the two teams played earlier this year and the Bills wanted to keep the ball out of his hands."

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/13-seconds-short-breaking-down-the-bills-decision-making-in-their-last-second-loss-to-the-chiefs/

 

"The only issue is the Bills should’ve been more focused on draining each of those final 13 seconds as quickly as possible. Allowing the Chiefs to take a touchback gives them a free 25 yards without losing any time. If Bass kicks it short of the end zone, say inside the 10 or even the 15-yard-line, Pringle would have needed to use some of that precious time to move the ball to where the drive started."

 

"The Bills were so desperate to keep the ball out of Pringle’s hands and risk a long return, which not only is poor self-scouting — the Bills allowed just 18 yards per kickoff return this year, second-best in the NFL — it’s poor logic. Would you rather your opponent have to carry the ball 65 yards with the clock ticking or just 45? With all their timeouts remaining, the Chiefs ate up 44 yards up the middle on just two plays, taking only 10 seconds off the clock."

 

Even announcer Tony Romo was questioning, why not a squib kick?

 

Wide right...MCM, throw back TD and now 13 seconds. Good lord, this will haunt Bills fans forever! 

 

Or, at least until they win a super bowl. 

 

Very questionable defensive calls to boot...Heartbroken 😭

 

utterBS.

 

here are factors

 

KC had all 3 TOs…they had full firld

they needed 40 yards in two places for FG thus 2 20 yd plays. Or They needed 1 20 yd play in 2 plays Then a Hail Mary.

team played softer D making 20 yd more likely.