Sport Trac off-season projection AFC East

[CorkScrewHill]

Not many free agents on our team they expect to resign .. mention two possible cap targets Beas and Morse. For those Edmunds people .. no benefit to getting rid of him. One extension candidate they mention is Diggs. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/2022-nfl-offseason-series-afc-east-1351/

 

good analysis in general though high-level

[Mc1320]

Can clear a decent amount of space by cutting Klein and Feliciano as well.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I don't like losing Morse at all, it's not like replacing a slot WR. Do they say who we would even replace him with?

[Mat68]

Morse wants to play hes back. Feliciano give them versatility up front.  I think Star, Beasley, Klien and both special teamers are up against it.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Not many free agents on our team they expect to resign .. mention two possible cap targets Beas and Morse. For those Edmunds people .. no benefit to getting rid of him. One extension candidate they mention is Diggs. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/2022-nfl-offseason-series-afc-east-1351/

 

good analysis in general though high-level

Wouldn't shock me to see them rework Tre White's deal as well. Bring his cap number down a bit.

[BarleyNY]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/yearly/cap/

 

This is another way to look at the roster.  Scroll down to each position group and you can see where the needs are.  I’m only including players on the roster that matter in some fashion.  No Christian Wades.  My synopsis and opinions:

 

QB: Allen is the only one under contract so we will need a decent backup. 
 

RB: Singletary and Moss.  An upgrade at RB1 would be preferable.  A complete back who can run, catch and pass pro is worth spending on. 

FB: Gilliam.  Fine.  Whatever.
 

WR: Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Stevenson. Hopefully we can find some help here.  Beasley is firmly on the chopping block if we find two good options.  He’s due $500k by 3/20 so we should know by then.  The plus is that Allen is a great selling point.  Diggs is touted as an option for creating space, but there’s an issue.  He’s underpaid by going market rates.  I don’t know that he will be on board with a restructure that doesn’t include a bump.  He might come looking for that bump anyway.  Also it wouldn’t hurt to bring back McKenzie for depth. 
 

TE: Knox and Sweeney.  Please, please, please find a good TE to go with Knox.  Please.  I’d prefer someone to push Knox down to TE2, but I’d live with someone who could push him and come in when he has the dropsies. A FA and a draft pick to knock Sweeney off the roster is my preference. 
 

OL: Dawkins, Feliciano, Morse, Williams, Brown, Doyle, Ford.  Bates is a RFA.  Restructure Dawkins to push cap space down the road.  Morse is probably a cap casualty, tho he could take a cut to stay.  His replacement should be added this off-season regardless.  Feliciano and Williams are possible cuts, though I don’t think we would gut the whole IOL in one off-season.  There has to be at least one IOL player added who can help in the run game.  Brown is obviously safe.  I’d love a swing tackle added.  Oh and please get rid of Ford.  He has no guaranteed salary left. 

 

Defense on next post. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by BarleyNY

[BarleyNY]

DL: Star, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Oliver.  First, pick up Oliver’s fifth year option.  Look to extend him during the season if he’s still playing at the level he was last season.  Effing Star.  We are stuck with him next season due to his contract and lack of bodies at DT.  Please re-sign Phillips to a reasonable deal.  He will have to want to be here because the DT market is going to get people PAID.  We have to shore up the position somehow.  Gotta go value shopping in FA or the draft at DE for depth too.

 

LB:  Milano, Edmunds and Klein.  Stuck with Edmunds another season, but do not compound that mistake by extending him.  Also no sense paying a 3rd LB (again) when you run a Nickel base.  Klein was not good this season so he’s an easy cut.  He’s due a 3/20 roster bonus so he should be gone by then.  I’d add a depth FA and a draft pick (3rd round or beyond) with instincts and upside.

 

DB: White, Poyer, Hyde, Taron Johnson, Joaquin Johnson, Dane Jackson.  The obvious hole is CB2.  I’d like to bring back Wallace if we can get a reasonable deal done.  Plus we need to add another outside CB in case Tre is not back early in the season.  A draft pick or a vet that comes at a decent price are fine.  We also need to draft a safety as depth/future starter.  Poyer is entering the last season of his deal and we should look to extend him. 
 

Specials: Bass, Ferguson, Haack.   I would look to upgrade Haack.  Otherwise I’m good.  Also Id probably start talking extension with Bass’ agent later in the season or next offseason.  He’s signed through 2023 now. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by BarleyNY

[JaCrispy]

I hate the way our defense is built...such a paper tiger...

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

They need to extend Davis. I can’t imagine his price going down after next season.

 

Beasley could be gone but that may depend on what happens with McKenzie. Rather not lose both McKenzie and Beasley.

 

Maybe the bills could do a one for three and replace Sanders, McKenzie and Beasley with Cordell Patterson. Feels like Patterson’s been around forever though. But I guess he still playing at a high level? I would think at this point in Patterson’s career he probably wants to play for a contender. Could possibly get a discount. McKenzie on the other hand probably wants a payday and I wouldn’t blame him for that.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I hate the way our defense is built...such a paper tiger...

I don’t know if I’d say they are a paper Tiger necessarily. The bottom line is elite quarterbacks and elite offenses are gonna have their way against even the better defenses. I mean there’s all this talk about the Chiefs being the best defense in the league since like week eight or whatever. The bills absolutely lit them up.

 

And you gotta remember we were down arguably our best defensive player in White. In a game as close as that one was he likely would’ve been the difference between an L in a W.

 

There really aren’t elite defenses anymore. But what we do have in the league is one or two elite defensive players. They can sometimes single-handedly wreck a game like a TJ Watt. But a TJ Watt himself won’t necessarily be on an elite defense.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

RB: Singletary and Moss.  An upgrade at RB1 would be preferable.  A complete back who can run, catch and pass pro is worth spending on. 

FB: Gilliam.  Fine.  Whatever.

 

WR: Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Stevenson. Hopefully we can find some help here.  Beasley is firmly on the chopping block if we find two good options.  He’s due $500k by 3/20 so we should know by then.  The plus is that Allen is a great selling point.  Diggs is touted as an option for creating space, but there’s an issue.  He’s underpaid by going market rates.  I don’t know that he will be on board with a restructure that doesn’t include a bump.  He might come looking for that bump anyway.  Also it wouldn’t hurt to bring back McKenzie for depth. 
 

TE: Knox and Sweeney.  Please, please, please find a good TE to go with Knox.  Please.  I’d prefer someone to push Knox down to TE2, but I’d live with someone who could push him and come in when he has the dropsies. A FA and a draft pick to knock Sweeney off the roster is my preference. 
 

OL: Dawkins, Feliciano, Morse, Williams, Brown, Doyle, Ford.  Bates is a RFA.  Restructure Dawkins to push cap space down the road.  Morse is probably a cap casualty, tho he could take a cut to stay.  His replacement should be added this off-season regardless.  Feliciano and Williams are possible cuts, though I don’t think we would gut the whole IOL in one off-season.  There has to be at least one IOL player added who can help in the run game.  Brown is obviously safe.  I’d love a swing tackle added.  Oh and please get rid of Ford.  He has no guaranteed salary left. 

 

 

 

Strong disagreement on needing to replace RB1. Miniscule chance of that in a year like this, IMO. Bringing in someone to compete, particularly for RB2? That would make sense to me. When the OL started playing well, suddenly Singletary got much much better.

 

Same with finding a guy to outplay Knox. Wildly unlikely in a year like this with a cap squeeze, I'd bet. 

 

And while I'm not thrilled with Morse and he's expensive, I don't see them getting rid of him unless they've got a guy who can play at least as well, and I don't see that happening. They don't need to be teaching a new center and having OL synching being hurt at this point.

 

Most of the rest makes sense to me, though, barring the Edmunds stuff. That guy will be here a long time barring serious injury or a change at head coach, and that's a good thing.

 

 

22 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

They need to extend Davis. I can’t imagine his price going down after next season.

 

Beasley could be gone but that may depend on what happens with McKenzie. Rather not lose both McKenzie and Beasley.

 

Maybe the bills could do a one for three and replace Sanders, McKenzie and Beasley with Cordell Patterson. Feels like Patterson’s been around forever though. But I guess he still playing at a high level? I would think at this point in Patterson’s career he probably wants to play for a contender. Could possibly get a discount. McKenzie on the other hand probably wants a payday and I wouldn’t blame him for that.

 

 

Davis is stuck, I think. Can't re-negotiate rookie deals till after the third season. I believe that includes extensions.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I don’t know if I’d say they are a paper Tiger necessarily. The bottom line is elite quarterbacks and elite offenses are gonna have their way against even the better defenses. I mean there’s all this talk about the Chiefs being the best defense in the league since like week eight or whatever. The bills absolutely lit them up.

 

And you gotta remember we were down arguably our best defensive player in White. In a game as close as that one was he likely would’ve been the difference between an L in a W.

 

There really aren’t elite defenses anymore. But what we do have in the league is one or two elite defensive players. They can sometimes single-handedly wreck a game like a TJ Watt. But a TJ Watt himself won’t necessarily be on an elite defense.

 

 

Yeah, agreed. With the rules against contact on QBs and WRs being stiffened and more strongly enforced every year, it's almost impossible to stop a smart elite QB with options at the skill positions and a solid OL from putting up points like a pinball game when he's hot. And I do think a healthy Tre makes a real difference.

[Norcalbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Strong disagreement on needing to replace RB1. Miniscule chance of that in a year like this, IMO. Bringing in someone to compete, particularly for RB2? That would make sense to me. When the OL started playing well, suddenly Singletary got much much better.

 

Same with finding a guy to outplay Knox. Wildly unlikely in a year like this with a cap squeeze, I'd bet. 

 

And while I'm not thrilled with Morse and he's expensive, I don't see them getting rid of him unless they've got a guy who can play at least as well, and I don't see that happening. They don't need to be teaching a new center and having OL synching being hurt at this point.

 

Most of the rest makes sense to me, though, barring the Edmunds stuff. That guy will be here a long time barring serious injury or a change at head coach, and that's a good thing.

 

 

 

 

Davis is stuck, I think. Can't re-negotiate rookie deals till after the third season. I believe that includes extensions.

I dont necessarily say we need an rb1 cuz Singletary played great late into the year, but I think a speedy rb that could return kicks and increase our screen game would be excellent. And completely possible in a draft where there isn't an RB predicted to go until mid to late round 2. Could be great value late in the draft.

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, agreed. With the rules against contact on QBs and WRs being stiffened and more strongly enforced every year, it's almost impossible to stop a smart elite QB with options at the skill positions and a solid OL from putting up points like a pinball game when he's hot. And I do think a healthy Tre makes a real difference.

 

It's why there's positional value on defense.  

 

What difference did Edmunds and Milano make in that game?  Now we're going to potentially tie up legit money in two linebackers?  ok... 

 

What difference did "the best safety tandem in the league" make in that game?  None.  Because good safeties are a luxury, not a need.  

 

Load up on Offense and frequently draft DL and CB high.  Fill in at linebacker and safety.