THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - I've got Nuthin'

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Beane failed to do his job. The whole offseason was supposed to be about becoming good enough to dethrone the Chiefs. 

Happy, I love your stuff, but this is fundamentally wrong.  This is HappyDays' definition what the whole offseason was supposed to be about.   It most definitely does not describe how Beane and McDermott operate.  

 

Their objective is never changing.  Their objective is to have the best football team they can have.  They want to build their team to be better than the previous season, year after year.   They do NOT go into the off-season intending to reshape their team to beat a particular opponent.  

 

Their objective is to make the team good enough to get home playoff games.   They want their opponents, whoever they be, to come through Buffalo.  

 

They are confident that if they build properly, the winning will take care of itself.  

[KCNC]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I haven't entered the fray to talk who's fault it was, what might have been done differently, etc.   I've seen several comments about the loss being on the coaches and how they did or did not manage the defense down the stretch.  I have a variety of thoughts about all of that, and I might talk about it more later, but for now I want to respond this idea.

 

I don't think I agree with McDermott's defensive philosophy, but this "deer in the headlights"  thing is wrong.  That's what people said about the defense when they gave up some drives in the Houston playoff game, and they completely ignored multiple stops the defense made in that game, stops that allowed the Bills to get back into the game.  

 

Last night, Hill had a humongus return late in the game, and the defense held on three downs and forced a field goal.  A huge stand. 

 

The fact that the Bills defense can't stop two of the top five offensive players in the league, at will, any time, is NOT the problem.   Did the Chiefs also have a deer in the headlights look?   They couldn't stop the Bills, either.  

 

 

I get that.  It was a chorus of errors.  You could point to any one of them.   Maybe I have been through this too many times, but even with 13 seconds left, I was not even celebrating the TD.  All I could think was Mahomes + 3 TOs = sure field goal.  I just had zero confidence in the defense in crunch time last night.  I know they were tired.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Lost said:

 It's truly remarkable how similar the stat lines of these two QBs are over the last two post season games.   The fact that Allen went into a hostile environment and did what he did is even more impressive to me than Mahomes.

Allen was incredible.  

 

Remember when the narrative was "Allen isn't accurate, and you can't fix accuracy"?   

 

He'll be better next season.  

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, HamSandwhich said:

 that game reinforced Allen >>>> Mahomes. The D/coaching lost that game. 

But that's not what happened. They both played equally flawless football. Given that Mahomes has been doing it 4 straight years and has made it to the AFCCG every year, tie goes to the runner.

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[Logic]

In my opinion, this is the second worst loss in Bills history.

I still have to give Super Bowl XXV the nod for worst, simply because it was the Super Bowl.

Other than that, though? This game takes the cake for me. Worse than the Music City Miracle.

Here is why I view it as such:

1) There are games where you did the absolute best you could, but the other team just made more plays. Games you deserved to lose. Then there are games that you SHOULD have won, but in some improbable way, you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This was the latter. Bills should have won. Inexcusable.

2) The specific "13 seconds" failure is all the more astonishing and painful because our team is coached by two of the smartest defensive minds in the league. And yet, I'm convinced most 10-year-olds that have ever played Madden would've called more logical defense on those final two plays. Just brutal.

3) Daboll and Frazier are likely gone after this season. We'll probably have new (or at least somewhat) different offensive and defensive systems installed next year. Seamless transition is no guarantee. This was the last gasp of this "iteration" of the Bills. Josh Allen's big contract numbers are going to start kicking in soon, too, and it's going to get harder to retain our good players.

4) None of the teams left -- Bengals, 49ers, Rams -- were going to beat the Bills. Had the Bills gotten past the Chiefs, as they should have, they would have become Super Bowl champions. I'm certain of it. This was our year. This was the team. Josh Allen's moment to ascend to the top of the mountain and claim the "best QB in the league" title and win Buffalo its first Lombardi.

Bottom line: Josh Allen had the highest playoff quarterback rating in the HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE this year and was backed up by the number 1 yardage and scoring defense...and it still wasn't enough to win a title. As such, at this moment in time, it's hard for me to picture the Bills EVER winning a title. If this performance by Josh and a defense that allowed 17 ppg couldn't get it done, who ever will?!

Sure, you can say "we're young, we'll be back a bunch in the years to come!", and maybe that's true. All I can think of is Dan Marino's quote that after reaching and losing the Super Bowl in his second season, he assumed he'd be back many times in his career, but he never returned. Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.

Maybe by April I'll be ready to talk draft and think about the future. Right now, though, all I can do is stare at the wall and reflect on the fact that the Bills just blew their best opportunity at a title in 35 years, and that their perpetual lot in life seems to be stunning, improbable, epic, crushing defeats. I am numb.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, KCNC said:

I get that.  It was a chorus of errors.  You could point to any one of them.   Maybe I have been through this too many times, but even with 13 seconds left, I was not even celebrating the TD.  All I could think was Mahomes + 3 TOs = sure field goal.  I just had zero confidence in the defense in crunch time last night.  I know they were tired.

Yeah, I wasn't comfortable either, in part because we've seen McDermott get overly conservative in these situations before.  

 

But think about it:  If, after the kickoff, the Bills had made a stop and held the Chiefs out of field goal range, if the game had ended with the Bills winning by three, all of Chiefs land today would be talking about all the critical mistakes Reid made down the stretch to allow the Bills to take the lead twice in the last two minutes.  And every mistake any Bill, player or coach, made would be a footnote somewhere.  

 

The coaches make hundreds of decisions every game, and a lot of them don't work out well.  No coaches make decisions that work out well 100% of the time (except last week against the Patriots!).  The fans of the losing team always can find them, and then we can call them clever things like a "chorus of errors."    What about the thousands and thousands of decisions that McDermott and his staff have made to get to the point where they have one of the very best teams in the league?   He gets no credit for those?   

 

McDermott and his defensive coaches will spend the off-season thinking about what they might have done differently, they will learn, and they will change.  That's the Bills' culture.  

 

I'm not happy today, but it doesn't make me feel any better to think about what should have been done differently.  

[Success]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

In my opinion, this is the second worst loss in Bills history.

I still have to give Super Bowl XXV the nod for worst, simply because it was the Super Bowl.

Other than that, though? This game takes the cake for me. Worse than the Music City Miracle.

Here is why I view it as such:

1) There are games where you did the absolute best you could, but the other team just made more plays. Games you deserved to lose. Then there are games that you SHOULD have won, but in some improbable way, you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This was the latter. Bills should have won. Inexcusable.

2) The specific "13 seconds" failure is all the more astonishing and painful because our team is coached by two of the smartest defensive minds in the league. And yet, I'm convinced most 10-year-olds that have ever played Madden would've called more logical defense on those final two plays. Just brutal.

3) Daboll and Frazier are likely gone after this season. We'll probably have new (or at least somewhat) different offensive and defensive systems installed next year. Seamless transition is no guarantee. This was the last gasp of this "iteration" of the Bills. Josh Allen's big contract numbers are going to start kicking in soon, too, and it's going to get harder to retain our good players.

4) None of the teams left -- Bengals, 49ers, Rams -- were going to beat the Bills. Had the Bills gotten past the Chiefs, as they should have, they would have become Super Bowl champions. I'm certain of it. This was our year. This was the team. Josh Allen's moment to ascend to the top of the mountain and claim the "best QB in the league" title and win Buffalo its first Lombardi.

Bottom line: Josh Allen had the highest playoff quarterback rating in the HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE this year and was backed up by the number 1 yardage and scoring defense...and it still wasn't enough to win a title. As such, at this moment in time, it's hard for me to picture the Bills EVER winning a title. If this performance by Josh and a defense that allowed 17 ppg couldn't get it done, who ever will?!

Sure, you can say "we're young, we'll be back a bunch in the years to come!", and maybe that's true. All I can think of is Dan Marino's quote that after reaching and losing the Super Bowl in his second season, he assumed he'd be back many times in his career, but he never returned. Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.

Maybe by April I'll be ready to talk draft and think about the future. Right now, though, all I can do is stare at the wall and reflect on the fact that the Bills just blew their best opportunity at a title in 35 years, and that their perpetual lot in life seems to be stunning, improbable, epic, crushing defeats. I am numb.

 

Part of me feels that way - that we would have rolled after this.

 

But I don't think we're giving the Bengals or Rams enough credit. The Rams in particular are more balanced than us.  If the Rams didn't give away 4 turnovers yesterday, their D would have basically shut down the Bucs, who I thought were the best team remaining. That Rams D-line is fierce and would have given us big problems.  

 

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Great review but your final point is spot on. So we played in one of the best play off games ever? Who gives a ****?

The same can be said of Super Bowl XXV--which I think most regarded as the best SB of all time, as of that point in time.

 

I always felt "who the F cares" about that one too.

 

 

[KCNC]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

in part because we've seen McDermott get overly conservative in these situations before.

so if he's been overly conservative in these situation before, one could argue that they have NOT learned, right?  I know it's all monday morning quarterbacking and I am ill and underslept.  There are a lot of good things that came out of this year but to be so close to hosting the championship game and not get it is particularly gut-wrenching.  To quote Danny Glover "I'm getting too old for this sh**!"

[HamSandwhich]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

But that's not what happened. They both played equally flawless football. Given that Mahomes has been doing it 4 straight years and has made it to the AFCCG every year, tie goes to the runner.

 

Eye test says differently to me

[Buffalo Boy]

    I thought of you this morning. I’ve got 40 + years in and I know you’ve got me beat.

    I hate to say it but I start to worry. That was a golden opportunity. We blew it. They don’t come along often.

I hope Josh gets us at least one but I worry😳

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, HamSandwhich said:

Eye test says differently to me

Maybe someday they'll give out MVP awards, championships and wins for the player that looked better according to that team's fans, but until then it comes down to actual performance. Mahomes played mistake-free football and came up just as big as Allen did when he had to in coming from behind twice, and driving the field in OT to win the game. He even outgained Allen in the air and on the ground, though I fully believe Allen would have pulled even had he gotten another drive.

That sidearm throw under Rousseau was one of the sickest throws I've ever seen. The escapability that Mahomes had all night long from the pocket was amazing. We had no answer for him, and they had no answer for Allen. The situations our team found themselves in required Allen to display more heroics, but Mahomes did every time he was needed. His team just asked him to do it less.

[Buddo]

Terrific write up Shaw.

 

This really sticks in the craw.

 

In some respects, I don't think you can blame the players. (Not that you personally were)

 

The offense was plenty good enough.

 

The defense, well, there's a decent argument there, yet I would argue that they are doing what they are coached to do.

 

Simply put, we were out-coached when it mattered. In all three aspects of the game.

 

Daboll called 3 runs just after we had stopped the Chiefs in the first half, and they all went nowhere. A horrible series.

 

We punted on a 4th and 1, admittedly in our own half, but at the time, the Chiefs were likely to go down and score anyway - and they did.

 

Lots of 'hands in the air' to prevent Mahomes passing in the first half, when he was scrambling with nowhere to go. Just hit him. That one I'd call 6 of one half a dozen of the other. Players should know to nail him, yet they will have been coached to get their hands up, on a regular basis. Not going to work against Mahomes.

 

An awful decision, or bad execution, to not make the Chiefs either bring the football out, or fair catch with a greater distance to go on the last kick off in regulation. A STs howler, really, which wouldn't have been so bad if they hadn't done that sort of kickoff on a decent number of occasions already through the regular season.

 

The final vomit inducing, 'prevent' defense. Not just on one play, but two, when it hadn't worked the first time. Now, on the first instance, it's certainly possible that the players gave themselves too much 'cushion' - iirc there was another game in the last year or two where that has happened, but after calling TO, they should all have been aware exactly of what they were supposed to do.

 

It's galling.

 

Having said all of that, you don't get to see such a phenominally played game, without a lot having been done right.

 

Trouble is, to win those games, of the highest quality, you have to get more of that stuff right - and our coaches didn't.

[Helpmenow]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

    I thought of you this morning. I’ve got 40 + years in and I know you’ve got me beat.

    I hate to say it but I start to worry. That was a golden opportunity. We blew it. They don’t come along often.

I hope Josh gets us at least one but I worry😳

I’ve got 57 years in. I thought this was going to be it. Man it’s tough

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

In my opinion, this is the second worst loss in Bills history.

I still have to give Super Bowl XXV the nod for worst, simply because it was the Super Bowl.

Other than that, though? This game takes the cake for me. Worse than the Music City Miracle.

Here is why I view it as such:

1) There are games where you did the absolute best you could, but the other team just made more plays. Games you deserved to lose. Then there are games that you SHOULD have won, but in some improbable way, you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. This was the latter. Bills should have won. Inexcusable.

2) The specific "13 seconds" failure is all the more astonishing and painful because our team is coached by two of the smartest defensive minds in the league. And yet, I'm convinced most 10-year-olds that have ever played Madden would've called more logical defense on those final two plays. Just brutal.

3) Daboll and Frazier are likely gone after this season. We'll probably have new (or at least somewhat) different offensive and defensive systems installed next year. Seamless transition is no guarantee. This was the last gasp of this "iteration" of the Bills. Josh Allen's big contract numbers are going to start kicking in soon, too, and it's going to get harder to retain our good players.

4) None of the teams left -- Bengals, 49ers, Rams -- were going to beat the Bills. Had the Bills gotten past the Chiefs, as they should have, they would have become Super Bowl champions. I'm certain of it. This was our year. This was the team. Josh Allen's moment to ascend to the top of the mountain and claim the "best QB in the league" title and win Buffalo its first Lombardi.

Bottom line: Josh Allen had the highest playoff quarterback rating in the HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE this year and was backed up by the number 1 yardage and scoring defense...and it still wasn't enough to win a title. As such, at this moment in time, it's hard for me to picture the Bills EVER winning a title. If this performance by Josh and a defense that allowed 17 ppg couldn't get it done, who ever will?!

Sure, you can say "we're young, we'll be back a bunch in the years to come!", and maybe that's true. All I can think of is Dan Marino's quote that after reaching and losing the Super Bowl in his second season, he assumed he'd be back many times in his career, but he never returned. Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.

Maybe by April I'll be ready to talk draft and think about the future. Right now, though, all I can do is stare at the wall and reflect on the fact that the Bills just blew their best opportunity at a title in 35 years, and that their perpetual lot in life seems to be stunning, improbable, epic, crushing defeats. I am numb.

Thanks for this.   I always have disagreed with the "closing window" philosophy, and I disagree with it here.  McDermott and Allen are about continuous improvement.  Belichick never cried "woe is me" when he lost a coordinator.   I'm not worried. 

 

And I think the 13 seconds has to be understood in context.  Or, more importantly, the "number 1 scoring and yardage" narrative.   Something that I think McDermott has done wrong, and I expect he will correct it, is to build a defense that is consistent defense instead of a big-play defense.   McDermott has been very successful building a consistent defense, and consistency gives you good numbers over the long-run.   That's why he's always (except for last season) running a highly ranked defense.   It's decidedly not a big-play defense.   The problem with that is that when you need a big play with this defense, you can't dial it up.   You can just say, "Okay, JJ, or okay, Troy, or okay, Kahlil, go make a play."   So, for example, when Hardman had the big reception in overtime, it was because the Bills decided they needed a big play, and they blitzed.  They got burned.  

 

When you're talking complementary football, I think you have to pair a big-play defense with a big-play offense.   When you have an offense like the Bills have - when you have Allen, then the number one objective is to get the ball back in Allen's hands, even if that means giving up a score to do it.  Having a bend-don't-break defense tends to run the clock without your offense on the field, and it plays into the hands of the other team - they want to run clock, because it keeps the score down.  I think the Bills need a high-risk, high-reward defense.   They need a stud defensive lineman who absolutely demands double teams, and they should blitz more, all in attempts to generate big losses on plays, and turnovers.   The risk is that you give up more big plays but hey, more big plays means Allen gets back on the field faster.   (It happened last night - the Chiefs are so good on offense, they scored too fast and let Allen have the ball with a minute to go.)  

 

Obviously, so far in his career, McDermott doesn't agree with me, so he has a defense built on a different philosophy.   And it's easy to see that if that's his philosophy, then you don't blitz Mahomes, you don't even try too hard to rush him, because you want to avoid his running, and when you get down to the last 13 seconds you play really deep, because the only really, really bad thing that can happen is a TD.   

 

I get that thinking.   It isn't horrible.  However, when Josh Allen is your quarterback, I think the nature of his game demands that you reconsider your philosophy.

[muppy]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Yes, numb is right.  Been a fan since the AFL Championships too.

 

I ask myself how do they come back from this?

There is always X's and O's, player personnel and coaching changes and all the other stuff to be discussed but this will

come down to their character. 

 

I will support them as a fan and hope they can do it again.  This time hopefully in Orchard Park.

 

how can they do it again? Support #17 with weapons and retain necessary OL to protect him,  make wise draft and free agent decisions, retain the strength and conditioning they already have to help ensure a healthy roster.... make strategic wise hires in the front office to replace who we did lose and use the team roster as effectively utilizing all their strengths in an attempt to reduce weaknesses..maximize excellence and  stay the course.

 

easy right?  🙂

 

m

Edited January 24, 2022 by muppy

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 Something that I think McDermott has done wrong, and I expect he will correct it, is to build a defense that is consistent defense instead of a big-play defense.   McDermott has been very successful building a consistent defense, and consistency gives you good numbers over the long-run.   That's why he's always (except for last season) running a highly ranked defense.   It's decidedly not a big-play defense.   The problem with that is that when you need a big play with this defense, you can't dial it up.   You can just say, "Okay, JJ, or okay, Troy, or okay, Kahlil, go make a play."   So, for example, when Hardman had the big reception in overtime, it was because the Bills decided they needed a big play, and they blitzed.  They got burned.  

 

This is everything. So much focus has been put on being good in every phase of the game (and rightfully so) to get us to where we are. In order to take the next step, we need to have the big play potential on the defensive side of the ball. When you play elite offenses like KC that will give as good as they get. It doesn't really matter what your YPA or point differential is over the course of a year. They are going to score. If you can stop them when it matters - that's what determines the game. Situational football becomes so much more important.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

This is everything. So much focus has been put on being good in every phase of the game (and rightfully so) to get us to where we are. In order to take the next step, we need to have the big play potential on the defensive side of the ball. When you play elite offenses like KC that will give as good as they get. It doesn't really matter what your YPA or point differential is over the course of a year. They are going to score. If you can stop them when it matters - that's what determines the game. Situational football becomes so much more important.

Yeah, that's the point.  With the Bills' offense, you're going to outscore most teams, even if you let them have a big play here or there.   On the other hand, the teams with the really good offenses are going to take what you give them, and they're still going to hit with a big play here or there.   You'll never stop them all the time - that's what makes them a good offense.   But what you can do is smack them in the mouth once in a while.  

 

Put it a different way.  We often talk about the Belichick "take away the one thing they do best" philosophy, but we always talk about in terms the defense trying to take away something the offense does.   It's true the other way, too.  Just like teams have to think about how they're going to take away Allen's running or Diggs's receiving, the some teams have an advantage on defense by forcing the opponent to work at neutralizing an Aaron Donald or a Watt or some other guy.   When you have a big-play threat, you force the offense to narrow their game in some way. 

 

Tre'Davious White is the example.   Here's this outstanding talent, and what the Bills have done with him is blend him into the defense to make the whole defense better.   Well, that's nice, but in some ways it makes White less scary to the offense.   Rather than turn him loose on the offense, a one-man gang of sorts, playing shut-down corner all game, or roaming the field, free-lancing, his big-play capability is kept somewhat under wraps.  

 

The Bills turn Allen loose, letting him throw and run and receive.   The Bills need more of that on defense. 

[zow2]

I'll contend that as the years have clicked by,  the 4 Super Bowl losses have given the Bills more positive national notoriety than negative.  Folks are really in awe of that accomplishment, to get there 4 straight times.

 

The sad thing is all the Bills notable performances nationally are actually negatives.  Wide right, Music City Miracle, Hail Murray, 13 Seconds.

 

I will say that this year the club added a couple positives..  The perfect game vs NE and Josh Allen's performance last night.  That fact that he never got a chance to touch the ball in OT leaves his accomplishment intact.  People around the country are showering him with accolades and know that the Defense failed miserably in crunch time.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for this.   I always have disagreed with the "closing window" philosophy, and I disagree with it here.  McDermott and Allen are about continuous improvement.  Belichick never cried "woe is me" when he lost a coordinator.   I'm not worried. 

 

And I think the 13 seconds has to be understood in context.  Or, more importantly, the "number 1 scoring and yardage" narrative.   Something that I think McDermott has done wrong, and I expect he will correct it, is to build a defense that is consistent defense instead of a big-play defense.   McDermott has been very successful building a consistent defense, and consistency gives you good numbers over the long-run.   That's why he's always (except for last season) running a highly ranked defense.   It's decidedly not a big-play defense.   The problem with that is that when you need a big play with this defense, you can't dial it up.   You can just say, "Okay, JJ, or okay, Troy, or okay, Kahlil, go make a play."   So, for example, when Hardman had the big reception in overtime, it was because the Bills decided they needed a big play, and they blitzed.  They got burned.  

 

When you're talking complementary football, I think you have to pair a big-play defense with a big-play offense.   When you have an offense like the Bills have - when you have Allen, then the number one objective is to get the ball back in Allen's hands, even if that means giving up a score to do it.  Having a bend-don't-break defense tends to run the clock without your offense on the field, and it plays into the hands of the other team - they want to run clock, because it keeps the score down.  I think the Bills need a high-risk, high-reward defense.   They need a stud defensive lineman who absolutely demands double teams, and they should blitz more, all in attempts to generate big losses on plays, and turnovers.   The risk is that you give up more big plays but hey, more big plays means Allen gets back on the field faster.   (It happened last night - the Chiefs are so good on offense, they scored too fast and let Allen have the ball with a minute to go.)  

 

Obviously, so far in his career, McDermott doesn't agree with me, so he has a defense built on a different philosophy.   And it's easy to see that if that's his philosophy, then you don't blitz Mahomes, you don't even try too hard to rush him, because you want to avoid his running, and when you get down to the last 13 seconds you play really deep, because the only really, really bad thing that can happen is a TD.   

 

I get that thinking.   It isn't horrible.  However, when Josh Allen is your quarterback, I think the nature of his game demands that you reconsider your philosophy.

I posted in a Facebook forum today that I hope McD rethinks his defensive philosophy.  We lost last night because we had an aggressive offense but a passive defense.  Couldn't agree more with your take here.