Reviewing Beane

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, Einstein said:

He has been “made” by his Allen choice, which you can never take away. But for the purpose of this thought study, imagine that he did not pick Allen. Imagine he had picked Rosen.

 

Where would our fans rank him then?

 

Likely quite low.

 

Shows how 1 pick can make or break a career.

Why stop there…let’s pretend the Warriors didn’t draft Curry.  The Patriots didn’t draft Brady.  The Packers didn’t draft Rodgers.  The Lakers didn’t draft Kobe.  The Bulls didn’t draft Jordan.  
 

No disrespect, I just don’t get these types of comments at all.  Great teams often have some great to elite players on them.  So what’s up he point of saying “well if he didn’t draft Allen”.  He did draft Allen when the MAJORITY of you (don’t know your personal stance) around here wanted to mistakenly draft Rosen.  So there is no scenario of him not drafting Allen, his ability to identify Allen as their guy is 100% part of his excellent track record as a GM.
 

And what’s even most puzzling, is we have what is seen by almost everyone as the most talented roster top to bottom in the NFL.  Yet your comment basically completely disregards the very talented roster we have and the work Beane did to not only assemble it, but keep our own home grown players and still be in position to go add a Von Miller and extend Diggs.

 

Beane has been masterful at trades, drafting, contracts, and retaining our own.  No GM has a perfect track record or bats a thousand, but I’d argue that Beane has had the best track record of any GM in the NFL during the time he has been our GM.

 

So, again, no disrespect but your comment is incredibly flawed.

[Beerball]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

Yeah, but the team was loaded with young talent.  Sure it never led to wins, but they were young and talented!

I think that's sarcasm Doc, but my detector is on the fritz so I'll answer honestly.

 

Beane was able to trade Tyrod Taylor for a 3rd (pick 65 so basically a second) and Dareus and his absurd contract for a 5th. The deadwood, AKA not part of the process, was shed and pretty darn quickly.  Like any GM he's had hits and misses. IMO the scales are tipped far in his favor. (think Dareus on one side of the scale vs Diggs on the other.)

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No disrespect, I just don’t get these types of comments at all.

 

No problem, I'll attempt to help you understand.

 

The point of any evaluation or rating is to assess the full works of whatever you are reviewing. 

 

So... if you purchase an automobile and the engine works great, that is a positive. The engine is a heavily weighted component and is needed for the vehicle to function.  But, what if the A/C/heat doesnt work? And the brakes fail from time to time? And the seats wiggle when you take turns?

 

Will the car still receive a good rating from you, simply because the engine is good? 

Well, I would hope not.

 

In the National Football League, the Quarterback is a heavily weighted position. A great QB can mask many roster deficiencies. In other words, a QB can keep the team running, just like an engine can. But without a prover HVAC system, and brakes, and secure seats, your ride will not be very comfortable.

 

This is not an uncommon exercise - in Science or Analytics or a myriad of other topics, it is common to isolate a heavily weighted variable and review the remaining dataset. I'm genuinely surprised how few understand this. Perhaps it a low-level IQ test of the posters on this forum. 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

let’s pretend the Warriors didn’t draft Curry

 

People have done this exercise with the Warriors. 

 

The Warriors also drafted Klay Thompson and Draymond Green and signed Kevin Durant.

 

So taking away Curry, you still have extremely talented and elite players that show the Warriors do indeed draft and sign well, absent their engine (Curry). 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The Patriots didn’t draft Brady.

 

People have done this exercise with the Patriots too.

 

The Patriots also drafted and signed Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Devin McCourty, Julian Edelman, Patrick Chung, etc.

 

So taking away Brady, you still have players that show the Patrots have GM'ed well at times absent their engine (Brady). 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The Packers didn’t draft Rodgers. 

 

The Packers are a good example of the flip side of the coin.

 

With Rodgers, one of the greatest QB's in NFL history, the Packers should have several Super Bowl rings (or at least appearances). 

 

But the Packers have lived off the laurels of drafting Aaron Rodgers. If you visit their forum, you will see that their fans have long complained about their previous (and even current) GM over this very issue.

 

When you isolate the heavily weighted variable known as Aaron Rodgers, you find that their draft picks and signings have been sparse of elite players. There are a few, like Adams, but not enough.

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Beane has been masterful at trades, drafting, contracts, and retaining our own.  No GM has a perfect track record or bats a thousand, but I’d argue that Beane has had the best track record of any GM in the NFL during the time he has been our GM.

 

I dont agree that he is masterful.

 

I think he is average to above average, but he hit on the most important position and that gives you longevity in the NFL.

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So, again, no disrespect but your comment is incredibly flawed.

 

I don't think you quite understand my comment.

 

The point of this exercise is not to remove Allen from Beane's accomplishments. It is to isolate Allen for a moment so you can properly evaluate the rest of the roster without the Allen affect clouding your mind.

 

Which it clearly has.

 

.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Einstein

[Logic]

Multiple unbiased national NFL analysts and writers have called the Bills' roster the very best in the NFL from top to bottom.

Beane has an AP NFL Executive of the Year award under his belt.

The Bills have made the playoffs 4 out of 5 years that Beane has been general manager, after having missed the playoffs for 17 straight seasons prior to his arrival.

The Bills are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl this year.

How is this even a discussion?

The proof is in the pudding. The pudding, in this case, is "one of the best rosters in the NFL, perennial playoff contention, and Super Bowl betting favorites".

But sure, let's engage in advanced analysis and arcane thought experiments for another 10 pages.
 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Staying with the big picture, how may rosters in the NFL, top to bottom, would you trade the Bills roster for?\

 

With Allen? Only 1. 

 

Absent Allen, close to a decenary.

 

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

The Bills have made the playoffs 4 out of 5 years that Beane has been general manager, after having missed the playoffs for 17 straight seasons prior to his arrival.

 

Beane came after the 2017 draft and free agency period. He is only responsible for 4 years. 

[billsfan4ever63]

instead of just looking at draft picks how about you evaluate the whole team. with that i say a plus. when is the last time we could feel this good about our chances to win. i love this team, of course i wish a few players were better considering where they were drafted but as a whole  how can anyone complain about the team we have now.

[Logic]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Beane came after the 2017 draft and free agency period. He is only responsible for 4 years. 

Okay. Three out of four seasons, then. The point stands.

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

Okay. Three out of four seasons, then. The point stands.

 

What would you say the Bills top 2 position groups are?

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No problem, I'll attempt to help you understand.

 

The point of any evaluation or rating is judging the full works of whatever you're reviewing. 

 

So, if you purchase a car and the engine works great, that is a positive. The engine is a heavily weighted component due to its need for the vehicle to function.  But what if the A/C/heat doesnt work, and the brakes fail from time to time, and the seats wiggle when you take turns?

 

Will the car still receive a good rating from you, simply because the engine is good? 

Well, I would hope not.

 

In the National Football League, the Quarterback is a heavily weighted position. A great QB can mask many roster deficiencies. In other words, a QB can keep the team running, just like an engine can. But without a prover HVAC system, and brakes, and secure seats, your ride will not be very comfortable.

 

This is not an uncommon exercise - in Science or Analytics or a myriad of other topics, it is common to isolate a heavily weighted variable and review the remaining dataset. I'm genuinely surprised how few understand this. Perhaps it a low-level IQ test of the posters on this forum. 

 

 

People have done this exercise with the Warriors. 

 

The Warriors also drafted Klay Thompson and Draymond Green and signed Kevin Durant.

 

So taking away Curry, you still have extremely talented and elite players that show the Warriors do indeed draft and sign well, absent their engine (Curry). 

 

 

People have done this exercise with the Patriots too.

 

The Patriots also drafted and signed Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Devin McCourty, Julian Edelman, Patrick Chung, etc.

 

So taking away Brady, you still have players that show the Patrots have GM'ed well at times absent their engine (Brady). 

 

 

The Packers are a good example of the flip side of the coin.

 

With Rodgers, one of the greatest QB's in NFL history, the Packers should have several Super Bowl rings (or at least appearances). 

 

But the Packers have lived off the laurels of drafting Aaron Rodgers. If you visit their forum, you will see that their fans have long complained about their previous (and even current) GM over this very issue.

 

When you isolate the heavily weighted variable known as Aaron Rodgers, you find that their draft picks and signings have been sparse of elite players. There are a few, like Adams, but not enough.

 

 

I dont agree that he is masterful.

 

I think he is average to above average, but he hit on the most important position and that gives you longevity in the NFL.

 

 

I don't think you quite understand my comment.

We will just have to agree to disagree, because quite honestly all your examples up there are incredibly inaccurate and quite the stretch of the imagination.  
 

And sorry, your explanation and defense of your original comment saying this is how you do analysis is just not accurate either.  
 

And once again…the Buffalo Bills are considered by most to have the most talented ROSTER in the NFL top to bottom.  A roster thats been almost entirely built and retained by Beane.  So sorry, but your opinion of Beane has been “average” outside of Allen is highly inaccurate. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Beane came after the 2017 draft and free agency period. He is only responsible for 4 years. 

Sorry man, not picking on you but this is also wrong.  
 

Beane came in right after the draft and immediately put his stamp on the team BEFORE the season began.  He signed players, cut players, traded away players and traded for players all that season that led to a playoff birth.  And some of those moves also helped our draft capital to get both Allen and Edmunds.
 

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We will just have to agree to disagree, because quite honestly all your examples up there are incredibly inaccurate

 

No they're not. And your refusal to confront them tells me that you're unsure how they are inaccurate either. 

 

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And sorry, your explanation and defense of your original comment saying this is how you do analysis is just not accurate either.  

Yes it is accurate. And your refusal to confront them tells me that you're not unsure how they are inaccurate either. 

 

It is not simply how I analyze. Its how the entire scientific community does. 

 

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And once again…the Buffalo Bills are considered by most to have the most talented ROSTER in the NFL top to bottom.  A roster thats been almost entirely built and retained by Beane.  So sorry, but your opinion of Beane has been “average” outside of Allen is highly inaccurate. 

 

I am old enough and wise enough to know that pre-season prognostications and rankings mean something between "jack" and "crap". 

 

.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Einstein

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

With Allen? Only 1. 

 

Absent Allen, close to a decenary.

 

 

 

1) You can’t take away Allen without taking away every other teams QB.

 

2) You can’t do that either, because WE DO HAVE ALLEN!

 

We have no idea what might have been. If Allen was a bust, maybe we have Herbert. Let’s just stick to reality, it makes things so much more simple! 

[Einstein]

Just now, Augie said:

 

1) You can’t take away Allen without taking away every other teams QB.

 

That's what I was doing. 

 

Quote

Let’s just stick to reality, it makes things so much more simple! 

 

The reality is that 1 pick (Allen) has saved Beane's career.

 

.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Einstein

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

Okay. Three out of four seasons, then. The point stands.

No he’s wrong.  Beane put his stamp all over that playoff team from the moment he got here after the draft.  Beane signed people, cut people, traded away people, and traded for people all before and during the season.  
 

So Beane has been a big part of all 4 playoff seasons the last 5 years.  He just refuses to look at facts.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

That's what I was doing. 

Okay, let’s play your make believe game:  

 

Find 3 rosters that are clearly BETTER than the Bills roster if you take away every teams QB.  
 

HINT:  You can’t if you’re being honest.  There are literally not 3 better rosters than the Bills in the NFL…with or without factoring in the QBs.

[Einstein]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

No he’s wrong.  Beane put his stamp all over that playoff team from the moment he got here after the draft.  Beane signed people, cut people, traded away people, and traded for people all before and during the season.  

 

Here are the noteworthy 2017 additions/negations made after Beane was made GM.

 

- Signed Baccari Rambo (cut a month later)

- Signed Anquan Boldin (retired 2 weeks later)

- Traded Watkins and Ragland (helped in the Allen trade but did nothing for the 2017 playoffs)

[Doc]

34 minutes ago, Beerball said:

I think that's sarcasm Doc, but my detector is on the fritz so I'll answer honestly.

 

Beane was able to trade Tyrod Taylor for a 3rd (pick 65 so basically a second) and Dareus and his absurd contract for a 5th. The deadwood, AKA not part of the process, was shed and pretty darn quickly.  Like any GM he's had hits and misses. IMO the scales are tipped far in his favor. (think Dareus on one side of the scale vs Diggs on the other.)

 

Yeah, it was sarcasm.  They got rid of the talented-but-underperforming players who were a bad example for the rest of the team, especially the younger players who were (to be) drafted, as well as getting something substantial for Tyrod.  And the results speak for themselves.  They've been considered a SB contender the past 2 years and will be for the foreseeable future now that they have Josh, a guy most experts and teams wanted to avoid in the 2018 draft.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

That's what I was doing. 

 

 

The reality is that 1 pick (Allen) has saved Beane's career.

 

.

 

I have a sister-in-law who also confuses her opinions with reality. It’s annoying. 

 

PROVE to me that Beane would not try to get a Franchise QB if Josh didn’t pan out. PROVE to me that would have been impossible. The Cards took the wrong guy, then fixed it. Could we have landed on Herbert? You can’t prove what might have happened in another reality. 

 

I know you just want to make a point, but we just won’t see eye to eye on this because your mind appears set. 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Okay, let’s play your make believe game:  

 

Find 3 rosters that are clearly BETTER than the Bills roster if you take away every teams QB.  
 

 

Easy.

 

For one, the Titans. Even WITH Allen, they've beaten the Bills roster twice in a row.

Another is the Rams. Who practically have a Pro-Bowl team for a roster. 

The Buccaneers are another, and the Browns are close (their QB held them back more than helped them).

 

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

PROVE to me that Beane would not try to get a Franchise QB if Josh didn’t pan out. PROVE to me that would have been impossible. The Cards took the wrong guy, then fixed it. Could we have landed on Herbert? You can’t prove what might have happened in another reality. 

 

I know you just want to make a point, but we just won’t see eye to eye on this because your mind appears set. 

 

This is a (likely unintentional) strawman. You've misunderstood my point. 

 

My point is not that Beane would not have tried for another franchise QB or even chosen another franchise QB, my point is that outside OF the franchise QB (whomever name that may be), his work as talent evaluator has been average. 

 

Quote

 

I have a sister-in-law who also confuses her opinions with reality. It’s annoying. 

 

 

Out of curiosity, do you realize how often you write this? Just curious if its a tick or something. 

 

.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Einstein

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

What would you say the Bills top 2 position groups are?

In what way will my answering this question refute any of the points I made above?

 

Do you believe that the National reporters who believe that the Bills’ roster is the best in the NFL are being dishonest?

 

Do you believe that regular playoff contention is not a good marker of the success of a GM in building a team?

 

Do you think the Bills being Super Bowl favorites is indicative of an average or poor performance by their GM in assembling the roster?

 

You can get as granular as you like and look at the roster with a microscope. That’s your prerogative.

 

Me? I’ll reiterate that the proof is in the pudding, and that being perennial playoff contenders and Super Bowl favorites is pretty convincing pudding.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Is Beane perfect? Of course not. No GM is perfect and Beane has made some mistakes (off the top of my head I would say the Lotulelei and Murphy contracts, and the Teller and Benjamin trades). 

 

Is Beane one of best GM in the league? Most definitely, and many consider him to be the best GM. Our roster is probably the most talented in the league this year and we're poised to be contenders for years. 

 

It's true that a lot of that has to do with Allen, but Beane is the one that picked him and deserves full credit for how the Bills look now.