Game Theory and how Situational Game Awareness continues to be the achilles heel (Update: Bengals used a similar formation to defeat KC)

[Einstein]

Great coaching is typically comprised of a mixture of situational game awareness (see: game theory), as well as traditional X’s and O’s.

 

You can not have one without the other. 

 

McDermott is a good coach but his achilles heel is often in his game theory and situational game awareness.

 

Lets examine the final 13 seconds while thinking through each decision and how game theory can be applied.

 

1a) Pass Rush: In football, teams rush the passer in an attempt to force a quick decision by the QB, resulting in less time for receiving options to get open. Due to this, teams often rush 4 or 5 defenders.

 

1b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, the QB is already forced into making a quick decision. Therefore, using situational game awareness, we can hypothesize that 4 defensive line rushers are not needed in this situation, as the very limited time left in the game will force the QB’s decision making far more than your pass rushers can.

 

1c) Potential Solution: Rush 2 defensive linemen.  Why even bother with only two? Because you want hands in passing lanes. Pick your two most intuitive linemen that are best at getting their hands in the air and tipping passes at the line.

 

——

 

2a) Pass Coverage: In football, pass coverage is designed to limit the opponent from moving the ball through the air. Traditionally, this can be accomplished via man, zone or a hybrid scheme. Penalties such as defensive holding and pass interference are your enemy, as this results in the ball being advanced down the field which negates your objective.

 

2b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, they must pass the ball. This makes the opponents offense one dimensional and gives the defense an advantage. With only 2 defensive linemen rushing the QB, you are left with 9 players in coverage. Since there is no need to diagnose a potential run play, linebackers are less needed here as well. Defensive holding is the defenses friend in this situation, as time is NOT added back onto the clock in the case of a penalty. The time is simply gone, and the offense is only 5 further yards down the field.

 

2c) Potential Solution; Place 8 defensive backs and 1 coverage LB in pass coverage. The coverage LB gives a hard shove (read: hold) to Kelce off the line of scrimmage and plays man coverage on him. Behind the coverage LB is a defensive back bracketing Kelce’s route. This delays Kelce’s route and double covers him.

 

On the other side of the field, 6 DB’s cover the 3 WR’s that are lined up in a bunch formation. There are 3 “up” DB’s and 3 “bracket” DB’s. 

 

The “up” defensive backs are in man to man coverage with the WR’s while the remaining 3 DB’s are bracketing behind them (this is essentially modern day double coverage). The result is that each receiving option is double covered while leaving 1 safety back deep in a support role.

 

2 DL

1 LB

8 DB (7 in direct coverage and 1 safety)

 

                               .   .

                     .  .  .            .

                     .  .  .            .

 

                                 .

 

This is just one option, and may not even be the best option. But it is better than what was used.

 

In summary, I value McDermott as a quality coach but hope he spends time this offseason evaluating his game theory and practicing scenarios that will make him more prepared for the next situation.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Einstein

[JimmyNoodles]

So you’re saying they screwed it up. 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, JimmyNoodles said:

So you’re saying they screwed it up. 

 

Yeah, that about sums it up.

[Mc1320]

Name another game that has been blown with 13 seconds on the clock like that?  
 

The coaches completely laid an egg here and need to own it. Squib the kickoff and you leave one play for Mahomes.  Even after that, rush 3, drop 8 into your normal 2 deep shell and you don’t give up those two plays to get in field goal range.

 

‘No point in rushing 4 and dropping 7 in prevent protecting the sidelines when they have 3 time outs leaving the middle wide open for Kelce.
 

Feel awful for Allen, he played his guts out and deserved to win so badly.

[london_bills]

34 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Great coaching is typically comprised of a mixture of situational game awareness (see: game theory), as well as traditional X’s and O’s.

 

You can not have one without the other. 

 

McDermott is a good coach but his achilles heel is often in his game theory and situational game awareness.

 

Lets examine the final 13 seconds while thinking through each decision and how game theory can be applied.

 

1a) Pass Rush: In football, teams rush the passer in an attempt to force a quick decision by the QB, resulting in less time for receiving options to get open. Due to this, teams often rush 4 or 5 defenders.

 

1b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, the QB is already forced into making a quick decision. Therefore, using situational game awareness, we can hypothesize that 4 defensive line rushers are not needed in this situation, as the very limited time left in the game will force the QB’s decision making far more than your pass rushers can.

 

1c) Potential Solution: Rush 2 defensive linemen.  Why even bother with only two? Because you want hands in passing lanes. Pick your two most intuitive linemen that are best at getting their hands in the air and tipping passes at the line.

 

——

 

2a) Pass Coverage: In football, pass coverage is designed to limit the opponent from moving the ball through the air. Traditionally, this can be accomplished via man, zone or a hybrid scheme. Penalties such as defensive holding and pass interference are your enemy, as this results in the ball being advanced down the field which negates your objective.

 

2b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, they must pass the ball. This makes the opponents offense one dimensional and gives the defense an advantage. With only 2 defensive linemen rushing the QB, you are left with 9 players in coverage. Since there is no need to diagnose a potential run play, linebackers are less needed here as well. Defensive holding is the defenses friend in this situation, as time is NOT added back onto the clock in the case of a penalty. The time is simply gone, and the offense is only 5 further yards down the field.

 

2c) Potential Solution; Place 8 defensive backs and 1 coverage LB in pass coverage. The coverage LB gives a hard shove (read: hold) to Kelce off the line of scrimmage and plays man coverage on him. Behind the coverage LB is a defensive back bracketing Kelce’s route. This delays Kelce’s route and double covers him.

 

On the other side of the field, 6 DB’s cover the 3 WR’s that are lined up in a bunch formation. There are 3 “up” DB’s and 3 “bracket” DB’s. 

 

The “up” defensive backs are in man to man coverage with the WR’s while the remaining 3 DB’s are bracketing behind them (this is essentially modern day double coverage). The result is that each receiving option is double covered while leaving 1 safety back deep in a support role.

 

2 DL

1 LB

8 DB (7 in direct coverage and 1 safety)

 

                               .   .

                     .  .  .            .

                     .  .  .            .

 

                                 .

 

This is just one option, and may not even be the best option. But it is better than what was used.

 

In summary, I value McDermott as a quality coach but hope he spends time this offseason evaluating his game theory and practicing scenarios that will make him more prepared for the next situation.

Great post

[popcornpam]

5 minutes ago, Mc1320 said:

Name another game that has been blown with 13 seconds on the clock like that?  
 

The coaches completely laid an egg here and need to own it. Squib the kickoff and you leave one play for Mahomes.  Even after that, rush 3, drop 8 into your normal 2 deep shell and you don’t give up those two plays to get in field goal range.

 

‘No point in rushing 4 and dropping 7 in prevent protecting the sidelines when they have 3 time outs leaving the middle wide open for Kelce.
 

Feel awful for Allen, he played his guts out and deserved to win so badly.

McDermott needs to go to coaching school.  

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, london_bills said:

Great post

 

Thanks.

Wish I didn’t have to make it.

[All_Pro_Bills]

This is an excellent post.  And if McDermott and his defensive coaches played out the scenarios and how the Chiefs would play it out in response to it here they obviously missed their approach to moving the ball into field goal range.  This calls for a lot of thinking on your feet along anticipating the need for certain adjustments in-game and maybe this isn't in the wheelhouse of our current staff. 

My game theory for prepping the defense for the Chiefs started after last weeks win against NE.  When Belichik went to the Bills locker room to offer congratulations they shouldn't have let him leave until he devised a defensive strategy the Bills could use against the Chiefs the following week. 

Or maybe McDermott went to his mentor, Andy Reid, and asked him "Andy, do you think this defensive game plan will work against your team"?  And Andy said, "absolutely Sean, it will work great".

[Einstein]

53 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

This calls for a lot of thinking on your feet along anticipating the need for certain adjustments in-game and maybe this isn't in the wheelhouse of our current staff. 

 

That’s the odd thing. McDermott and the coaching staff had the entire TV timeout (after the TD with 13 seconds remaining) to come up with a plan.

 

It would be slightly understandable if he had to think on his feet. But instead, he had time to formulate a plan and simply failed.

[All_Pro_Bills]

51 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s the odd thing. McDermott and the coaching staff had the entire TV timeout (after the TD with 13 seconds remaining) to come up with a plan.

 

It would be slightly understandable if he had to think on his feet. But instead, he had time to formulate a plan and simply failed.

Good point.  The problem the Chiefs face is they need to get into FG range to extend the game.  There are 13 seconds left in regulation and they have all three time outs.  To do this they need about 45 yards.  So they need to execute 2 plays of 20+ yards and still leave time for the FG attempt.  They might have 3 plays to do this if they are short quick passes.  An unsuccessful first play will likely end their chances or at best require the offense to take even greater risks.  They will be using their timeouts to stop the clock if the pass is complete. 

So how can you determine that playing 20 yards off the LOS and protecting the side lines, which they have absolutely no need to use to stop the clock, that presents an almost perfect defensive set up that will allow them the best chance of successfully pulling off their only hope to tie the game is most effective way to stop them? 

Edited January 24, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills

[Einstein]

37 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Good point.  The problem the Chiefs face is they need to get into FG range to extend the game.  There are 13 seconds left in regulation and they have all three time outs.  To do this they need about 45 yards.  So they need to execute 2 plays of 20+ yards and still leave time for the FG attempt.  They might have 3 plays to do this if they are short quick passes.  An unsuccessful first play will likely end their chances or at best require the offense to take even greater risks.  They will be using their timeouts to stop the clock if the pass is complete. 

So how can you determine that playing 20 yards off the LOS and protecting the side lines, which they have absolutely no need to use to stop the clock, that presents an almost perfect defensive set up that will allow them the best chance of successfully pulling off their only hope to tie the game is most effective way to stop them? 

 

Youre right. It was a failure of coaching.

[ILBillsfan]

The D was protecting for a TD and not the FG.  Safeties were way too deep. On the first reception for Hill he had two guys blocking in front of him everybody was way too deep.   The coaches in that situation were horrible.  Frazier being an ex HC and both being D coordinators just inexcusable imo

 

Situational awareness was clearly not there last night

[Livinginthepast]

11 hours ago, Einstein said:

Great coaching is typically comprised of a mixture of situational game awareness (see: game theory), as well as traditional X’s and O’s.

 

You can not have one without the other. 

 

McDermott is a good coach but his achilles heel is often in his game theory and situational game awareness.

 

Lets examine the final 13 seconds while thinking through each decision and how game theory can be applied.

 

1a) Pass Rush: In football, teams rush the passer in an attempt to force a quick decision by the QB, resulting in less time for receiving options to get open. Due to this, teams often rush 4 or 5 defenders.

 

1b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, the QB is already forced into making a quick decision. Therefore, using situational game awareness, we can hypothesize that 4 defensive line rushers are not needed in this situation, as the very limited time left in the game will force the QB’s decision making far more than your pass rushers can.

 

1c) Potential Solution: Rush 2 defensive linemen.  Why even bother with only two? Because you want hands in passing lanes. Pick your two most intuitive linemen that are best at getting their hands in the air and tipping passes at the line.

 

——

 

2a) Pass Coverage: In football, pass coverage is designed to limit the opponent from moving the ball through the air. Traditionally, this can be accomplished via man, zone or a hybrid scheme. Penalties such as defensive holding and pass interference are your enemy, as this results in the ball being advanced down the field which negates your objective.

 

2b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, they must pass the ball. This makes the opponents offense one dimensional and gives the defense an advantage. With only 2 defensive linemen rushing the QB, you are left with 9 players in coverage. Since there is no need to diagnose a potential run play, linebackers are less needed here as well. Defensive holding is the defenses friend in this situation, as time is NOT added back onto the clock in the case of a penalty. The time is simply gone, and the offense is only 5 further yards down the field.

 

2c) Potential Solution; Place 8 defensive backs and 1 coverage LB in pass coverage. The coverage LB gives a hard shove (read: hold) to Kelce off the line of scrimmage and plays man coverage on him. Behind the coverage LB is a defensive back bracketing Kelce’s route. This delays Kelce’s route and double covers him.

 

On the other side of the field, 6 DB’s cover the 3 WR’s that are lined up in a bunch formation. There are 3 “up” DB’s and 3 “bracket” DB’s. 

 

The “up” defensive backs are in man to man coverage with the WR’s while the remaining 3 DB’s are bracketing behind them (this is essentially modern day double coverage). The result is that each receiving option is double covered while leaving 1 safety back deep in a support role.

 

2 DL

1 LB

8 DB (7 in direct coverage and 1 safety)

 

                               .   .

                     .  .  .            .

                     .  .  .            .

 

                                 .

 

This is just one option, and may not even be the best option. But it is better than what was used.

 

In summary, I value McDermott as a quality coach but hope he spends time this offseason evaluating his game theory and practicing scenarios that will make him more prepared for the next situation.

This a really simple and well done breakdown of what we should have done. The question is that they practice this stuff all throughout the season so where was this strategy last night? Also they called a timeout right before the first and the 2nd play . You thought while watching this that this is a good sign, they must be really getting the D ready for the play call. Then inexplicably run a vanilla prevent D which accomplishes nothing of what is listed above.  Its one thing to say that the Players didnt execute a plan properly (pass rush was pathetic) but when you actually examine what they did, they didnt have much of a strategy at all. Im not sure who will get the blame McD or Frazier but I have think that McD signed off on or called that terrible prevent D himself. Either way the buck stops with him and he is responsible for this and the non squib kickoff and really needs to at least fess up to what happened!

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

Also they called a timeout right before the first and the 2nd play.

 

Good point. I actually just made a thread about this topic: 

 

 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Great stuff. It’s going to be really tough unfortunately to get over the hump with McD here. If anyone can do it, 17 can, but I hope it doesn’t come to  a point where it’s like McCarthy underachieving with Favre and Rodgers but keeping his job because they make the playoffs in most years. 

[vincec]

The Bills certainly should have only rushed 3 men on those two plays and not 4. Even Romo pointed that out during the broadcast. As for rushing 2, I've never seen the Bills do that so I'm not sure it's in their playbook the way it is in say New England's.

 

The real problem, from what I saw is that everyone was WAY to deep and KC just dumped the ball off and gained 20 yards each time before anyone could come up and make a tackle on the receiver. They totally needed to play more people in coverage and jamb / hold the receivers to slow everything down. But alas, it didn't happen. And Andy Reid is very good in these situation. I remember them scoring a long TD on a middle screen at the end of the half a few years ago vs Belichick and NE so it's not just McDermott that gets burned.

[JoshAllin]

Someone get McD a game of madden, he needs all the situational game reps he can get

[Einstein]

On 1/24/2022 at 12:51 AM, Einstein said:

Great coaching is typically comprised of a mixture of situational game awareness (see: game theory), as well as traditional X’s and O’s.

 

You can not have one without the other. 

 

McDermott is a good coach but his achilles heel is often in his game theory and situational game awareness.

 

Lets examine the final 13 seconds while thinking through each decision and how game theory can be applied.

 

1a) Pass Rush: In football, teams rush the passer in an attempt to force a quick decision by the QB, resulting in less time for receiving options to get open. Due to this, teams often rush 4 or 5 defenders.

 

1b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, the QB is already forced into making a quick decision. Therefore, using situational game awareness, we can hypothesize that 4 defensive line rushers are not needed in this situation, as the very limited time left in the game will force the QB’s decision making far more than your pass rushers can.

 

1c) Potential Solution: Rush 2 defensive linemen.  Why even bother with only two? Because you want hands in passing lanes. Pick your two most intuitive linemen that are best at getting their hands in the air and tipping passes at the line.

 

——

 

2a) Pass Coverage: In football, pass coverage is designed to limit the opponent from moving the ball through the air. Traditionally, this can be accomplished via man, zone or a hybrid scheme. Penalties such as defensive holding and pass interference are your enemy, as this results in the ball being advanced down the field which negates your objective.

 

2b) Game Theory Analysis: In a situation where a team needs to drive 35 yards in 13 seconds, they must pass the ball. This makes the opponents offense one dimensional and gives the defense an advantage. With only 2 defensive linemen rushing the QB, you are left with 9 players in coverage. Since there is no need to diagnose a potential run play, linebackers are less needed here as well. Defensive holding is the defenses friend in this situation, as time is NOT added back onto the clock in the case of a penalty. The time is simply gone, and the offense is only 5 further yards down the field.

 

2c) Potential Solution; Place 8 defensive backs and 1 coverage LB in pass coverage. The coverage LB gives a hard shove (read: hold) to Kelce off the line of scrimmage and plays man coverage on him. Behind the coverage LB is a defensive back bracketing Kelce’s route. This delays Kelce’s route and double covers him.

 

On the other side of the field, 6 DB’s cover the 3 WR’s that are lined up in a bunch formation. There are 3 “up” DB’s and 3 “bracket” DB’s. 

 

The “up” defensive backs are in man to man coverage with the WR’s while the remaining 3 DB’s are bracketing behind them (this is essentially modern day double coverage). The result is that each receiving option is double covered while leaving 1 safety back deep in a support role.

 

2 DL

1 LB

8 DB (7 in direct coverage and 1 safety)

 

                               .   .

                     .  .  .            .

                     .  .  .            .

 

                                 .

 

This is just one option, and may not even be the best option. But it is better than what was used.

 

In summary, I value McDermott as a quality coach but hope he spends time this offseason evaluating his game theory and practicing scenarios that will make him more prepared for the next situation.

 

The Bengals won today by (nearly, similarly) copying my defensive gameplan listed above.

 

Instead of 2 DL and dropping 9 back, the Bengals employed 3 DL and dropped 8 back, with (I believe) the occasional 9th defender behind the LB POA.

 

It held the Chiefs to 3 points in the second half.

 

.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Einstein

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

[strive_for_five_guy]

On 1/24/2022 at 1:26 AM, popcornpam said:

McDermott needs to go to coaching school.  

McDermott needs to read this post and TSW in general.

Edited January 31, 2022 by strive_for_five_guy