Jump to content

First round bye - overrated?


Dan Darragh

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Absolutely. Certainly fewer few thought Titans were going to SB. But GB that performance was a shocker. No dominant teams like Pats walking through years ago. Good for league. 

Not particularly.

 

They aren't physical. They haven't been a physical team for years.

 

The 49ers downhill rushing attack and physical front 7 has been their kryptonite for years. This team is the same team that had that Raheem Mostert 200 yard game 2 years ago. GB tried to get bulkier and more punishing with Dillon, but he was hurt.

 

I picked the 49ers to win. If Jimmy G played even decently, they blow out GB. They aren't built for the postseason.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Packers and Titans weren't good enough to take advantage of it.

 

If you go into the playoffs w/ the best team and have a bye week, it should always be an advantage.  This year, there is just a lot of parity.  I don't think anyone would say the Titans were the best in the AFC.  The Packers were a little closer to earning that, but the NFC is pretty stacked this year.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

possibly because the teams that get the bye are the top seeds?  

it just seems like playing through and maintaining momentum is a way to avoid coming out flat after the bye.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I'd say less of the bye being overrated as the teams this year.

Before this week's playoffs started I told someone that I didn't think Tennessee would get in the Super Bowl for this reason:  Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill.    
Three franchise QBs and Ryan "3 picks" Tannehill.  

 

I don't have an explanation of what happened in GB, other than if you look at recent head to head records SF has GB's number.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest problem that I see with home field advantage is that fans no longer know when to get loud. 
 

I’ll explain in the 80s and 90s when home field was huge, there was no technology for calling plays in. With the advances in QB helmet microphones, the OC can call a play with a kill and the mic doesn’t cut out until 15 seconds left on the play clock. 
 

This means that fans should be at their loudest right after the play ends and not after teams break the huddle. By the time a team breaks the huddle, they know the play and the kill play in the huddle, and with the invention of silent counts, it really minimizes home crowd advantage. Throw in that the game has become pass happy, weather does play a factor especially in cold weather cities

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I totally agree ! When i saw how both teams played in their respective games i thought i am so glad the Bills didn't get the bye i like you think it had a lot to do with them being stale or out of rhythm .

 

With the Bills seemingly hitting some kind of stride i don't want that to stop in any way i think if they can keep it going they can ride it all the way to a SB !! 

 

GO BILLS !!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

This whole season was weird. How many times did one of the best teams in the league go up against one of the worst teams only to lose the game. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Data is our friend (so is science btw):

 

"Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990 season, clubs coming off a first-round bye are 64-55-3 against the spread (53.8%) and 91-31 straight up (74.6%). Since 2015, those marks have jumped to 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 18-4 SU (81.8%), including a 7-4 ATS / 10-2 SU run for No. 1 seeds."

 

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2280404

 

Also relevant and possibly mitigating these numbers is that there has been a very recent 2 year trend of "road field advantage." Last season was the first year in NFL history where the road teams won more games than the home teams... 128-127-1 (.502). This season, home teams had a slim advantage, 137-131-1 (.511).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

Thank you.  As you point out, historically you're basically printing money by betting on bye teams to cover the spread in the divisional round.

 

But it's worth monitoring the trend over the next few years.  As the NFL has become more finesse-oriented, the value of the bye might diminish because it becomes increasingly important for your skill players to stay in rhythm by playing a game than having the week off.  (Green Bay and Tennessee sure didn't look in rhythm yesterday.)  Whereas when the NFL was a much more physical sport, the rest and recuperation was much more important for bruised bodies, especially for the linemen, LBs, and RBs in the running game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I made a thread about this earlier in the season……#1 seed is completely overrated.

34 minutes ago, Success said:

The Packers and Titans weren't good enough to take advantage of it.

 

If you go into the playoffs w/ the best team and have a bye week, it should always be an advantage.  This year, there is just a lot of parity.  I don't think anyone would say the Titans were the best in the AFC.  The Packers were a little closer to earning that, but the NFC is pretty stacked this year.

 

NFC is stacked? It’s the Packers, Bucs, Rams and everyone else. I’d argue from top to bottom the AFC is a much tougher conference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was a odd playoff field. The Titans were an over seeded team and the Packers ran into bad weather and choked. Last year the 1 seed in the AFC made the Super Bowl and the 1 seed in the NFC went to the Conference title game. More often than not the bye teams will likely be doing well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/23/2022 at 9:52 AM, JimmyNoodles said:

You get a week off, play at home, and play one less game, so the answer is "no," it's not overrated.  If the Bills lose tonight, we'll all be moaning about blowing home field with the schedule we had.    

You're right.

 

I think most of us would agree that playing this game in Orchard Park would have made all the difference in the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/23/2022 at 11:10 AM, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

No First round bye isn’t over rated. This is the first year in over 10 years where both top seeds lost in the division round. Why? Well Tannahill shoes he truly sucks even with elite talent around him and single handed my lost them the game. Two GB has Aaron Rogers the most in clutch QB ever in the playoffs.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

You're right.

 

I think most of us would agree that playing this game in Orchard Park would have made all the difference in the world.

 

I don't but I suspect Bills fans will rally around it.  "This time we get them at home" will be next season's version of "Our defense is built to beat the Chiefs" (lol)  Then we'll get them at home and lose worse.  It happened to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who also rallied around getting homefield advantage changing their playoff fortunes and then have lost at home two seasons in a row now.

 

to be clear, we had them beat on the road before 13 seconds of mental ######ation.

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

No First round bye isn’t over rated. This is the first year in over 10 years where both top seeds lost in the division round. Why? Well Tannahill shoes he truly sucks even with elite talent around him and single handed my lost them the game. Two GB has Aaron Rogers the most in clutch QB ever in the playoffs.. 

 

so basically the quality of the team matters, not homefield?  you undermine your own argument

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a very specific reason to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...