First round bye - overrated?

[Dan Darragh]

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

[Rampage]

Home field is becoming overrated. It’s started to effect lines in Vegas this season as well. The bye week is brutal in the playoffs because you play a team that’s coming off the high of winning their first game, playoff jitters are gone and you’re coming in rusty after not playing in two weeks.

[BuffaloBillyG]

This year it was. Yes.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 

[buffblue]

11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

Not enough evidence to suggest this yet. Historically #1 seeds have a much stronger probability of reaching the Super Bowl. I would take the bye every single time

[Saxum]

11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

 

Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing.

[Warcodered]

I'd say less of the bye being overrated as the teams this year.

[Nextmanup]

Statistically?  Absolutely NOT!

 

Getting that first week bye is HUGE.

 

This year was weird, but that's a single data point.

 

That's not how statistics work.

 

 

[BillsFan130]

I think it's the first time since 2010 both 1 seeds got knocked out after the bye.

 

I am taking the bye and home field advantage all day

Edited January 23, 2022 by BillsFan130

[BritBill]

It will be interesting to see the stats in 5-10 years time when we have a decent amount data from when it dropped to just one team getting a bye. 

[Mikie2times]

I say this based on no data to back it up, but I think once a team has reached a Super Bowl recently the bye really can help. As an example it helped New England for a really long time. It could/would help a team like KC right now as well as the Bucs had they got it. I always thought it really helped the Bills in the 90's. If you really are the best team, and you have experience, I think it helps a ton. As for the rest of them, it's a wash.   

Edited January 23, 2022 by KzooMike

[stinky finger]

Apparently - given both precincts have been eliminated.

[Beast]

Nope. Not overrated.

 

I'll take having to win two games to get to the SB, and having both at home, over having to win three.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Beast

[Wayne Cubed]

Nah, both these teams were beatable.

How about the “Look out for the running teams, come playoff time”?

[Sierra Foothills]

Data is our friend (so is science btw):

 

"Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990 season, clubs coming off a first-round bye are 64-55-3 against the spread (53.8%) and 91-31 straight up (74.6%). Since 2015, those marks have jumped to 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 18-4 SU (81.8%), including a 7-4 ATS / 10-2 SU run for No. 1 seeds."

 

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2280404

 

Also relevant and possibly mitigating these numbers is that there has been a very recent 2 year trend of "road field advantage." Last season was the first year in NFL history where the road teams won more games than the home teams... 128-127-1 (.502). This season, home teams had a slim advantage, 137-131-1 (.511).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

[QLBillsFan]

41 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 

Absolutely. Certainly fewer few thought Titans were going to SB. But GB that performance was a shocker. No dominant teams like Pats walking through years ago. Good for league. 

[Tuco]

44 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing.

They already do get paid for bye weeks in the playoffs. Other than that, great post.

[tomur67]

I just think that some teams just have bad games after the byes.    The Bills had their worst game of the season after the bye against the Jags.  Just hate to think what happened in that game.

[LeGOATski]

Yeah, I couldn't care less about the bye. The team just needs to be playing at its best going into the playoffs.

[Boatdrinks]

The bye itself may not be overrated. The teams that had them were. I wondered going into the playoffs if this was a year where the bye mattered the least. No team was dominant and a team that gets hot at the right time can win it all.