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First round bye - overrated?


Dan Darragh

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Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

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Home field is becoming overrated. It’s started to effect lines in Vegas this season as well. The bye week is brutal in the playoffs because you play a team that’s coming off the high of winning their first game, playoff jitters are gone and you’re coming in rusty after not playing in two weeks.

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10 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 

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11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

Not enough evidence to suggest this yet. Historically #1 seeds have a much stronger probability of reaching the Super Bowl. I would take the bye every single time

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11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing.  Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge.

 

I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years.

 

Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing.

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I say this based on no data to back it up, but I think once a team has reached a Super Bowl recently the bye really can help. As an example it helped New England for a really long time. It could/would help a team like KC right now as well as the Bucs had they got it. I always thought it really helped the Bills in the 90's. If you really are the best team, and you have experience, I think it helps a ton. As for the rest of them, it's a wash.   

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Data is our friend (so is science btw):

 

"Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990 season, clubs coming off a first-round bye are 64-55-3 against the spread (53.8%) and 91-31 straight up (74.6%). Since 2015, those marks have jumped to 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 18-4 SU (81.8%), including a 7-4 ATS / 10-2 SU run for No. 1 seeds."

 

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2280404

 

Also relevant and possibly mitigating these numbers is that there has been a very recent 2 year trend of "road field advantage." Last season was the first year in NFL history where the road teams won more games than the home teams... 128-127-1 (.502). This season, home teams had a slim advantage, 137-131-1 (.511).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

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41 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 

Absolutely. Certainly fewer few thought Titans were going to SB. But GB that performance was a shocker. No dominant teams like Pats walking through years ago. Good for league. 

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44 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing.

They already do get paid for bye weeks in the playoffs. Other than that, great post. :)

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