Is Super Bowl victory or bust realistic?

[skibum]

Best defense in the league and a flaming hot offense. Realistic? Sure! Guaranteed? Never.

 

There are a lot of great teams in the mix. KC, TB, GB, TN, LA, even Cincy are all capable of beating anyone at any time. So are the Bills - you just have to play the games. 

[TheBrownBear]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

538 currently has the odds of us reaching and winning the next three games as 35%, 22% & 12%.  We have the third best odds of a SB win behind GB, KC and TB.  Basically they give us a 35% chance to win the next game, but we’d be favored in the conference round.  The SB would depend on opponent.  Seems pretty fair, tho I think we are better than 35% against KC.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Actually, Neil Paine explains in his column that the numbers for this year (2021) actually make us the favorite against KC.  It's just that ELO takes into account the Chiefs multi-year track record in developing the prediction model.  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-watch-for-in-the-nfls-divisional-round/

In certain years, based on our current team, I'd say yes.  But I think we have a really good field of "strong" teams left in the playoffs this year.  The only teams I can't really see winning the whole thing are SF and Cincinnati - and they are still good enough to spring an upset and get to the conference championship or Super Bowl.  We will need to play our A game going forward if we want to reach the end goal.  B or C game isn't going to cut it against the remaining competition.

[May Day 10]

I dont think that is ever a fair benchmark.

 

For me, a good season is great.  Losing that wild card game would have made this season a disappointment overall despite winning the division.  Losing on the road in KC wouldnt be that horrible of an ending, it is basically a coin flip game.  Overall, its been a fun ride.  Was a fun ride last season too.

 

I really think next season they need to strive for greatness.  Measurables say this is an all-time great NFL team.  With a little bit of luck, they should probably be between 14-3 to 16-1, rested, and hosting the next 2 rounds before the Superbowl.  In that respect, this season is kind of a disappointing 'what if'.  Next season though, I could see that as a mantra for the team.  Might be their last kick at the can with a portion of this core and they will want to make history.

 

 

[die hard bills fan]

yes

[BuffaloBillyG]

Life is about opportunities and how you handle yourself after missing one 

 

Buffalo has an opportunity right in front of them. They can do this. But a LOT can happen in 3 hours on the field. I hope and believe they can get it done. If they can't it's onto the draft, FA and getting the tools to make it happen next year. 

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

. This team has continued to grow and we do not have any critical free agents so even if we do not win the Super Bowl this year .. we are definitely set to be in play for it for a while to come.  If we have that percentage chance for many years to come .. sooner or later our number will come up.

 

 

Bills seem to have figured out the ideal OL personnel and scheme. 

Injuries are minimal (except of course to White)

D seems to have gelled as a team

Overall, if we are peaking now, this becomes our best opportunity to win it all. Not often do you get the above combination to happen. 

Win it now. 

[Ross Murdock]

Given that the Bills now have Josh's massive contract to contend with, the fact that the Bills already have limited cap space, that the Bills are likely to lose both coordinators whom I feel are definitely at least partially responsible for both the offensive, and defensive significant success, and that the Bills just will not be able to keep all of their impactful players going forward, the time is NOW. Next years schedule will be much tougher, the AFC east will only be getting more competitive, and the Bills have been relatively healthy, and except for Tre White are now at full health. With Allen the Bills should always be competitive, however I recall that Dan Marino's best Dolphins teams were in his first 5 years. Bills need to make hay when they have so many significantly impactful players on BOTH sides of the ball. This is not likely to happen that often. Bills need to take advantage that most of the stars have aligned for them this season.    

[hondo in seattle]

I would love to win the Super Bowl.  And the way the Bills have been playing lately, I think it's a realistic aspiration.

 

But if each remaining game is a fifty-fifty proposition, we only have a 1-in-8 chance of winning it all.

 

It's not a failure for McD or the players if it doesn't happen.  Every team we'll have to beat has good coaches and players too.

[BuffaloBillies]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

538 currently has the odds of us reaching and winning the next three games as 35%, 22% & 12%.  We have the third best odds of a SB win behind GB, KC and TB.  Basically they give us a 35% chance to win the next game, but we’d be favored in the conference round.  The SB would depend on opponent.  Seems pretty fair, tho I think we are better than 35% against KC.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

35% chance to win Sunday? Nonsense. We're 2 point underdogs at KC, which basically means we're considered the better team (assuming ~3 pts for home field). At the very least it has to be around 50%.

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

The number of active quarterbacks with Big Ben retiring with more than one Super Bowl victory: Tom Brady (7 just nuts), Josh Rosen (typo that was just assumed based on the 2018 hype)

The number of active quarterbacks with exactly one Super Bowl victory: Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Nick Foles, Aaron Rodgers.

 

It is hard to to win one and for all the accolades that Russ and Aaron received they still only have one each.

 

At present I see our odds as

• 50% vs the Chiefs .. I think we are a bit better but they are at home
• 60% vs Titans (if Bengals win I think it pops to 75%)
• 60% against NFC representative (assuming Bucs or Packers)

 

So I think these slightly rose-colored glasses view .. we have around 30% chance of making it to the Super Bowl and 18% chance to win it. This team has continued to grow and we do not have any critical free agents so even if we do not win the Super Bowl this year .. we are definitely set to be in play for it for a while to come.  If we have that percentage chance for many years to come .. sooner or later our number will come up.

 

 

 

the goal is to win it every year, period.  Our window is open, and really this team should win it this year if they play as they are capable, and win again next year due to a cap increase, good draft (if Bean does not mess up Rd. 1 and 2); and keeping our team largely intact.  

[MJS]

We'll have some fans angry at the team and calling for some drastic changes if the Bills don't win the Superbowl this year, but those are the types that find something to be angry at no matter what. Even if we win it they will find something to complain about.

 

I really want a Superbowl and I understand that it is a tremendous feat. It's going to take everything the team has, and if they don't get it done they have next year to try again. That's how it works.

 

I picked the Saints to go to the Superbowl for like 3 straight years a couple years ago. With Brees, Kamara, Thomas, and a defense that was finally good, I thought they were the best team in the NFC. And though they got close, they never got there. It's freakin hard.

[teef]

i'm not sure everyone is grasping the idea as to whether the bills can win the super bowl vs should win the super bowl.  they certainly can, but to say they should sound like anger waiting to happen.  

[Greg S]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

 

35% chance to win Sunday? Nonsense. We're 2 point underdogs at KC, which basically means we're considered the better team (assuming ~3 pts for home field). At the very least it has to be around 50%.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, DasNootz said:

In my expert statistical opinion -

In KC, we'd win 4 out of 10.
In Tenn we'd win 5.5 out of 10

Home vs. Cincy we'd win 6.5 out of 10.

 

Neutral field vs. GB or TB - 5 out of 10

 

That give us a slightly better than 12% chance to win it all.  Win this week, and it' goes up to 30%

 

 

 

I'd bump the Cincy number up a point. 

[chris heff]

4 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Sweet, where did you get your numbers?  I hope it's not made up from your head 😕 

78% of all statistics are made up

[Michael1962]

I would say it is possible but the likelihood of them winning 2 playoff games in hostile environments is not likely but as they say plan for the best but prepare for the worst.  I have seen stranger things happen.

[FilthyBeast]

 

For every team that makes the playoffs on a semi regular basis (especially ones with a franchise history of winning SB's) anything less than a winning it all is seen as a disappointment which is why there is always talk of firing coaches that made the playoffs but fall short of lofty expectations (i.e. this year Cowboys).

 

In regards to the Bills/Chiefs specifically, there is a sense of urgency on both sides.

 

For the Bills the obvious is winning their first NFL championship after failing to do so in four straight tries in the early 90's. This is also a team that has now made the playoffs 4 of 5 years under the current regime including 3 straight and runners up in the AFC last year. The time is now so to speak in the midst of their current SB window before Allen's contract kicks in and a lot of key veterans will be gone due to age/cap restraints.

 

From the Chiefs perspective they are current the perceived favorites as winners of the AFCW 6 straight years, 3 straight AFCCG and 2 straight SB splitting those. They also know their current window will close in the next few years before some retooling/transition and/or Andy Reid retires. They also have some key veterans like Kelce that probably only have a few great years left and similar cap issues they'll be facing because of Mahomes contract.

 

[1stgm1993]

6 hours ago, uninja said:

If the Pats v Bills SWC Bills show up the rest of the tournament its gonna be 3 more hilarious blow outs while the Bills and Josh Allen go Super Saiyan level 3 on the other teams.

 

Play like that, for 3 more games, and the Super Bowl is a foregone conclusion.

Would love to see him and the team go crazy like last weekend for the next 3 games then they can be talked about as one of the best teams ever!!! not just best bills team. 

[Milanos Milano]

6 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

With Josh Allen that is the expectation every year going forward. 

As it should be. Josh Allen has more intangibles than Tom Brady. There is no reason why he can’t have a similar career. 

[Greg S]

1 hour ago, Michael1962 said:

I would say it is possible but the likelihood of them winning 2 playoff games in hostile environments is not likely but as they say plan for the best but prepare for the worst.  I have seen stranger things happen.

 

KC is a hostile environment, what is the other one?