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Posted

The number of active quarterbacks with Big Ben retiring with more than one Super Bowl victory: Tom Brady (7 just nuts), Josh Rosen (typo that was just assumed based on the 2018 hype)

The number of active quarterbacks with exactly one Super Bowl victory: Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Nick Foles, Aaron Rodgers.

 

It is hard to to win one and for all the accolades that Russ and Aaron received they still only have one each.

 

At present I see our odds as

  • 50% vs the Chiefs .. I think we are a bit better but they are at home
  • 60% vs Titans (if Bengals win I think it pops to 75%)
  • 60% against NFC representative (assuming Bucs or Packers)

 

So I think these slightly rose-colored glasses view .. we have around 30% chance of making it to the Super Bowl and 18% chance to win it. This team has continued to grow and we do not have any critical free agents so even if we do not win the Super Bowl this year .. we are definitely set to be in play for it for a while to come.  If we have that percentage chance for many years to come .. sooner or later our number will come up.

 

 

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Posted

If the Pats v Bills SWC Bills show up the rest of the tournament its gonna be 3 more hilarious blow outs while the Bills and Josh Allen go Super Saiyan level 3 on the other teams.

 

Play like that, for 3 more games, and the Super Bowl is a foregone conclusion.

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  • Agree 2
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Posted

i don't get the sense most Bills fans are "SB or bust".  there's all that window talk for example.

 

it sure would be nice to win it this year, though, since a lot of changes might be coming.

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Posted (edited)

Its Superbowl or bust always.... until next season

by that I mean its never really bust

Edited by ddaryl
  • Agree 3
Posted
7 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

The number of active quarterbacks with Big Ben retiring with more than one Super Bowl victory: Tom Brady (7 just nuts), Josh Rosen (typo that was just assumed based on the 2018 hype)

The number of active quarterbacks with exactly one Super Bowl victory: Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Nick Foles, Aaron Rodgers.

 

It is hard to to win one and for all the accolades that Russ and Aaron received they still only have one each.

 

At present I see our odds as

  • 50% vs the Chiefs .. I think we are a bit better but they are at home
  • 60% vs Titans (if Bengals win I think it pops to 75%)
  • 60% against NFC representative (assuming Bucs or Packers)

 

So I think these slightly rose-colored glasses view .. we have around 30% chance of making it to the Super Bowl and 18% chance to win it. This team has continued to grow and we do not have any critical free agents so even if we do not win the Super Bowl this year .. we are definitely set to be in play for it for a while to come.  If we have that percentage chance for many years to come .. sooner or later our number will come up.

 

 

538 currently has the odds of us reaching and winning the next three games as 35%, 22% & 12%.  We have the third best odds of a SB win behind GB, KC and TB.  Basically they give us a 35% chance to win the next game, but we’d be favored in the conference round.  The SB would depend on opponent.  Seems pretty fair, tho I think we are better than 35% against KC.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

  • Agree 1
Posted

If Allen stays healthy and plays 15-20 years with the Bills then I see his career similar to Ben's with the Steelers. He probably leads the Bills to a couple of Super Bowl wins, many playoff appearances, as well as big regular season wins, division titles etc etc etc. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Sweet, where did you get your numbers?  I hope it's not made up from your head 😕 

It is from my head .. my point is that even if you have that high of an opinion of the Bills it is hard to win all three games. If the Bills do lose this week that is not  a statement on the state of the franchise as they are positioned well (not going all in on high priced free agents such as the Rams have done). You stay in the playoffs year over year the run will come. Hopefully it is this year, but .. if not ...

Posted

maybe a point of clarification.  Super Bowl is the goal, but nobody is jumping off a bridge if they fail to win it.  We have a young QB/HC tandem that should compete for many more years.

  • Awesome! (+1) 1
Posted
13 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Sweet, where did you get your numbers?  I hope it's not made up from your head 😕 

 

This... plus the percentages only calculate to 18%

 

Posted

"or Bust", is really when you mortgage the future for the chance at winning it all now. Sometimes that's salary cap related and sometimes it's just having a bunch of 1-year rental guys that you know won't be back. But then again, with regard to the "window" talk, if we were to lose Daboll, Frasier, and perhaps a couple assistants, then you might not have this chance with a new group of coordinators.

 

Look at Dan Marino. Got in the big show his first year and never made it again. The morale is, you just never know.

Posted

The Bills have as good a shot as anyone to make it there. Will they? Idk that’s why they play the games but I’d say their in the top 5 of the teams remaining for the title. Chiefs, Bills, Bucs, Rams, Packers. Titans, Bengals, 49ers a step below but not by much. This year is exciting because any of the 8 remaining teams have a legit shot to win it with some luck. All 8 have huge strengths and weaknesses 

Posted

The Bills definitely have enough talent to win it all i guess it comes down to which team executes & wants it the most we have seen when they are hitting on all cylinders the Bills are one hell of a good team but when they are off well we've seen that too .

 

They say that you need to be playing your best ball at the end of the season & it's looking as if most everything is coming together at the right time the team is healthy Josh is making really good decisions & looked last week to be hitting his stride & the D has stepped into the number 1 spot .

 

Let's hope they keep rolling that would be awesome to see Buffalo so deserving of the Lombary to finally bring one home !!

 

GO BILLS !!! 

Posted

In my expert statistical opinion -

In KC, we'd win 4 out of 10.
In Tenn we'd win 5.5 out of 10

Home vs. Cincy we'd win 6.5 out of 10.

 

Neutral field vs. GB or TB - 5 out of 10

 

That give us a slightly better than 12% chance to win it all.  Win this week, and it' goes up to 30%


 

 

Posted

To me Super Bowl or bust would only apply in extreme circumstances. 

 

It would have to be a combination of the teams window closing (aging QB, bad contracts, aging coach, trading draft picks) and high expectations (think '07 Patriots). 

 

Doesn't apply to the Bills unless we're extrapolating expectations from that beat down against the Patriots and ignoring the regular season.  

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