The 4 down strategy

[Success]

I was thinking about this after the Chargers/Raiders game.  The Chargers coach went for it on 4th DEEP in their own territory.  That play had a huge impact on the game - in a negative way for the Chargers.  

 

I thought about the other side of it.  If it was under 5 yards, and you ALWAYS went for it in that situation - what would the ultimate outcomes be?  Obviously, they would depend on the offensive skill of the team doing it. You would also have to count on the defense to step up if it didn't work.   But aren't we that team?

 

Part of that is putting myself in the place of the opposing fan.  If I was facing a team like the Bills or Chiefs, I would be terrified if they felt so casual about 4th down.

 

In a game like the Chiefs, anytime we punt, we're giving the opponent a chance to score.  I think it's too risky going for it as deep into the territory as the Chargers were. But closer to midfield?

 

I don't know. I thought it would be an interesting discussion. So, I started a thread. Thoughts?

 

[NewEra]

[716er]

4th and 5 or less from the 50 to the goal-line I am going for it every single time against the Chiefs unless I am up by 14 or more points.

[Mikie2times]

[eSJayDee]

You make an important point stating that the most important factor is how good of a chance you have in converting.  (To a lesser extent, it's also dependent on what sort of chance you think you have of stopping them, or alternately how much is the 40+ yds a punt should yield to your defense (Good punters probably net close to 50 when they're "kicking away").

But, another thing you have to take into consideration is what if you're successful?  Having a 1st & 10 from your own 30 is only going to result in points maybe 50% of the time.

It all depends on the utility (economic concept) of the various outcomes & their probability.  I think in most situations, even a 50% conversion rate (which still only yields limited utility), would dictate that the prudent course of action would be to surrender the ball 50 yds farther down the field, ie punt.

[Clark Rotary]

You would want to have a really good defense if you were to do that - like first in multiple categories

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Clark Rotary said:

You would want to have a really good defense if you were to do that - like first in multiple categories

 

I see what you did there.

[HOUSE]

9 minutes ago, Clark Rotary said:

You would want to have a really good defense if you were to do that - like first in multiple categories

I don't see what you did there 😁

[billybrew1]

4 hours ago, Success said:

I was thinking about this after the Chargers/Raiders game.  The Chargers coach went for it on 4th DEEP in their own territory.  That play had a huge impact on the game - in a negative way for the Chargers.  

 

I thought about the other side of it.  If it was under 5 yards, and you ALWAYS went for it in that situation - what would the ultimate outcomes be?  Obviously, they would depend on the offensive skill of the team doing it. You would also have to count on the defense to step up if it didn't work.   But aren't we that team?

 

Part of that is putting myself in the place of the opposing fan.  If I was facing a team like the Bills or Chiefs, I would be terrified if they felt so casual about 4th down.

 

In a game like the Chiefs, anytime we punt, we're giving the opponent a chance to score.  I think it's too risky going for it as deep into the territory as the Chargers were. But closer to midfield?

 

I don't know. I thought it would be an interesting discussion. So, I started a thread. Thoughts?

 

I think the Bills play extremely aggressively but not like the chargers. Mid-field and less than a yard? Sure.

The Bills will also take the three on fourth and four or more. I say that with confidence as we are always going to be in control. It seems like everyone knows deep down, Buffalo is going to win.

 

Go Bills!

[bmur66]

My defense and their offense would have to factor into my decision to go for it on 4th down. 

[Utah John]

If you can punt and pin their offense back, and you trust your defense to get a three and out, you're counting on getting the ball back where you kicked it from, but now you'll have a first down.  So a lot depends on how your own team is playing.

[Orlando Buffalo]

At one time the chance to score was basically how many yards from end zone are you- if you start 80 yards from end zone your chance is 20% but if you are 40 from end zone it was 60%. I think KC and Buffalo destroy that percentage because they do not seem to care where they start. So my decisions on this team is based on what play I can call and what I expect Josh to do.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Anywhere close to midfield and further with 4th and short I think we have to go for. The net positive from punting in those situations just isn’t enough vs an offense like this, and isn’t worth giving away a potential longer drive and more points. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

Anywhere close to midfield and further with 4th and short I think we have to go for. The net positive from punting in those situations just isn’t enough vs an offense like this, and isn’t worth giving away a potential longer drive and more points. 

A lot more than just expected net has to be taken into account. Say, Buffalo is on the 50. Realistically, a touch back could happen and that's 30 yards net.

 

However, actually punting the ball can lead to many desirable outcomes as well. A muff, a holding penalty on the return, a good bounce that pins them inside the 5.