How long will the Bills window be open?

[In Summary]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

As long as Allen is the QB  So the next decade and a half

A decade and a half if he learns to play a reduced contact style once he hits 30.  

[Simon Says]

Allen signed his contract so Bills know what they have to work with. I would like to see vets like Hughes,Poyer,Hyde, Beasley ,Sanders et.al win a Super Bowl. Those vets will have to go when Allen's big money kicks in

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Aging veterans where? On the defensive line?    They are pretty well but we have a lot of depth there.  Plenty of depth at wr too but we will lose Beasley and sanders soon if not this season so I could see us drafting a few of those in the next two years.  Can’t think of too many other old players…beane seems like he’s always a few moves ahead.  Mitch Morse looks like he’s 40 but he’s only 29 lol

 

Yes, and that's why there are not too many older players on the team this year.

Last year Beane shed these over 30 players:  Ty Nsekhe, Lee Smith, Andre Roberts, John Brown and Trent Murphy.

Many of these players gone have been brought up by fans as "bad moves" during the season but they all were no longer seen as needed by

the Bills "going forward".

[Clyde Smith]

Until Josh is looking like Ben in his last game. Hopefully another 15+.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Yes, and that's why there are not too many older players on the team this year.

Last year Beane shed these over 30 players:  Ty Nsekhe, Lee Smith, Andre Roberts, John Brown and Trent Murphy.

Many of these players gone have been brought up by fans as "bad moves" during the season but they all were no longer seen as needed by

the Bills "going forward".

Yea I honestly can’t think of a team set up better for long term success that could also win it this year.  Where will the chiefs be when Kelce retires he seems pretty irreplaceable 

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, MJS said:

It all depends on how your team was built. It is a different answer for every team.

 

Many teams get their QB then they go out and sell the farm for high priced free agents, they make big trades for players, etc. They sell out for the super bowl window and kick the can down the road. They have a few years to make it work until they have to pay the piper.

 

Other teams were built through the draft, like Seattle. Seattle has two really great drafts that netted them some elite players. They were good for awhile and then they got old and expensive. They weren't able to replicate those drafts or replace aging talent with young, cheaper talent. So they fizzled out eventually.

 

The Bills were built through the draft and through free agency. They have focused on sustainability. Winning now and in the future. They focus on developing young talent. They are going to enter a phase where each draft is going to be more and more important as they will have less wiggle room in free agency and re-signing contracts due to Allen's and other foundational player's contracts. If they do that well, the window is open for as long as Allen is the QB. Beane doesn't like to kick the can down the road. He likes to pay the piper sooner rather than later, and that helps keep the future manageable.

 

I'd say the current window is as wide open as it will be and that will last for a couple more years.

I kinda disagree.

 

I think windows get larger and smaller for all teams with franchise QB's.  Teams that think that they are a piece or two away will make short term gambles to get them over the hump.

 

Philly was built through the draft for the most part, made some splash acquisitions like Alshon Jeffrey, previously traded a bunch to get Wentz and won it all which they paid for later.

 

Seattle was ALSO built through the draft, but still made splash acquisitions (trading for Percy Harvin), or later trading for Jimmy Graham to get them there which they paid for later.

 

The Falcons had their TG and Roddy White teams in the early 2010s, those guys got old, they rebuilt and went back to the SB 6 years later after retooling.

 

Even the Packers had a few lean years when their great WR group aged out., retooled, and came back.

 

Even the Pats, the model of sustainability in the NFL, had a 10 year SB drought and had to revamp the entire roster to get back to winning championships.

 

Barring injury, teams like the Bills and Chiefs will be in the mix for most of their young QB's careers. Mahomes will have a down year when Tyreek and Kelce start to age, and they will have to make some moves to regain competitiveness in terms of SB's.  The Bills will also have some down years when Diggs and our safeties start to get old but Josh has another 8 years of playing at a high level.

 

The most important thing is to not double and triple down over and over. Once McD and Beane have built enough goodwill, you have to know when to plan for 2 or 3 years in the future to make another run. I'm okay with a weird 9 or 10 win year where we are shedding some older players and retooling to make a deep run.

 

There aren't teams that are going to consistently draft superstars to perfectly replace their old blue chip players to constantly compete. It doesn't happen. And even if it did, we certainly don't appear to be that team. There is a distinct aspect of luck. The Seahawks got a couple HoFers in a row and that jammed open their window. They regressed in drafting JAGs more often than not and thus their window slid smaller.

 

I hope AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau become stars on the edge. It would be helpful. And when they are old and expensive, I hope we draft players to replace them who will also be stars. But that just doesn't really happen. "Building to win now and win in the future" just isn't real.

 

[TPS]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Obviously last season the window opened up wide for us...and it continues this season.  How often do you see one team ranked with the #1 overall defense, the #5 overall offense, awesome QB, talent everywhere, great coach with assistants being coveted around the league....etc.

 

My question (knowing there is no concrete answer), how long does the window stay wide open like this..  For the next 2-3 seasons? For the entirety of Josh Allen's career?  

 

These are good times to be a Bills fan.  Not sure what the braintrust has drawn up for KC this weekend but this seems like the perfect time to seize the moment.  They got hot at the right time.

I've been thinking about this for awhile, and my initial thought was that we are currently in what I was going to call the "Hyde-Poyer" window, which would be this year, next, and maybe 2024. However, I think @MAJBobby has it right--it's that simple, Allen's career.  He still hasn't hit his ceiling, though maybe we're seeing him get closer to it in this run? 

 

Beane is doing a good job of bringing in young talent through the draft.  The Bills will also be able to attract veterans who want a shot at a ring, which is why I'm in Major's camp now, as opposed to thinking they had to do a mini rebuild after H-P are gone.

[BillsMafi$]

Untill Allen can’t run much anymore 

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

Untill Allen can’t run much anymore 

Josh can win with his arm and I think will become more and more dangerous as he gets experience.

[brianthomas]

17 years... next question?

[LABILLBACKER]

It could last easily 12-15 years putting Josh at 40. It will also depend on finding an amazing WR1 replacement for Diggs once his time is done. I think our best SB window started last season and should go another 2-3 years. 

[ColoradoBills]

14 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea I honestly can’t think of a team set up better for long term success that could also win it this year.  Where will the chiefs be when Kelce retires he seems pretty irreplaceable 

 

I have been keeping an eye on the Chiefs situation and will be interested in how they handle the off season.

Lots of FAs and a lot of their contract restructures comes to a head again next year with only $22M currently in cap.

Top 4 cap hits.  Bills biggest cap hit is Diggs at $18M.

Mahomes:  $36M

Chris Jones:  $30M

Frank Clark:  $26M

Tyreek Hill:  $20M (last year of his contract).

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kansas-city-chiefs/

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

As others have said I think the window can stay open throughout Allen's career.  Some years though it may only be open a crack or so, then make some changes and 2 years later it's wide open again for a few years.  Lets assume the Bills get to the AFC championship game again this year.  It's quite possible the next time they do there may not be one player besides Allen from this years roster still around.  But for another 10 to 14 years, they'd likely have a shot most years.

 

IMO where teams get in trouble is paying big money for a QB who's pretty good, can get them to the playoffs, maybe even win a Super Bowl when everything aligns perfect, but really isn't sustainable. But they now gave him so much money, there's not enough left to field a very strong team around him, so they struggle.  Two guys that come to mind right now is Mayfield and Jackson.

 

Give Allen another year or two to really figure out the mental side of the game, better at reading defenses, etc, you could likely put the Bills 2017 or was it 2018 WR group out there with him and he'll make them look like all stars.

 

Over the years there are too many overpaid tier II QB's paid like tier I's

[TheFunPolice]

A lot of it depends on how good Allen turns out to be long-term. 

 

Is Allen one of those QBs who is really good for a short window or a long-term guy?

 

For example, Cam Newton was league MVP, led his team to a SB berth, and was just dominating the game for a short window. Then DONE, and I mean DONE almost overnight. Cam is only 32 right now but has been done for at least 2 years, maybe 3. So he was really only the Cam Newton many of us loved to watch until he was 28 or 29.

 

I think that a lot of fans forget how truly dynamic Newton was. He put on a show for a few years. I say this with respect, but Cam played with ZFG (Zero F's... Given). He was going to plow you over if he could, and he usually did. Plus, the Carolina offense was Cam up the middle. Cam to the right. Cam throwing the ball. Cam up the middle. Cam on a draw. So he just took a pounding and played the game like a LBer. Eventually his body just broke. Their window slammed shut and has been nailed shut ever since. 

 

At first I worried that Allen was going to come in, take the league by storm, and be broken by age 30 like Cam with the way he played his first couple of years. But if you notice, he's gotten a lot smarter about protecting himself. Yes, he'll occasionally go in head first or try the hurdle type plays when it's a gotta have it type moment, but 99% of the time he's looking for the sideline or sliding as soon as a defender closes when he scrambles. He has gotten the message to protect the body and not accumulate hits and injuries when they can be avoided. 

 

Big Ben played to age 40. That's with appearing to have given up on any sort of regular exercise regimen 3 years ago. There's no reason that Allen couldn't play til he's 40, barring any major injuries. That's 15 years from now, so IMO that's the Bills window. 

 

McDermott is young. Beane is young. Allen is young. Diggs just turned 28 a couple months ago, so he should be able to play at an elite level for 4-5 more seasons at least. Our LT and RT are young. We have a bunch of young DL. White is 27. Poyer and Hyde are 30/31. Milano is 27. Edmunds finally turned 21. 

 

This team is young and should be able to roll pretty much as currently constructed at key spots for 4-5 more seasons. 
 

Edited January 18, 2022 by TheFunPolice

[Scott7975]

The window is open as long as Josh is here and they do well drafting.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I believe we will have Sustained Success for Josh's career provided he stays Healthy. I believe if not already we are weeding out the Next Tier of QB's who 

can take over a game by themselves. 

 

I really would like to win a Ring with Hyder and Poyer. As far as I am concerned they came along with Mcd and got this thing rolling from the Beginning. 

 

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I kinda disagree.

 

I think windows get larger and smaller for all teams with franchise QB's.  Teams that think that they are a piece or two away will make short term gambles to get them over the hump.

 

Philly was built through the draft for the most part, made some splash acquisitions like Alshon Jeffrey, previously traded a bunch to get Wentz and won it all which they paid for later.

 

Seattle was ALSO built through the draft, but still made splash acquisitions (trading for Percy Harvin), or later trading for Jimmy Graham to get them there which they paid for later.

 

The Falcons had their TG and Roddy White teams in the early 2010s, those guys got old, they rebuilt and went back to the SB 6 years later after retooling.

 

Even the Packers had a few lean years when their great WR group aged out., retooled, and came back.

 

Even the Pats, the model of sustainability in the NFL, had a 10 year SB drought and had to revamp the entire roster to get back to winning championships.

 

Barring injury, teams like the Bills and Chiefs will be in the mix for most of their young QB's careers. Mahomes will have a down year when Tyreek and Kelce start to age, and they will have to make some moves to regain competitiveness in terms of SB's.  The Bills will also have some down years when Diggs and our safeties start to get old but Josh has another 8 years of playing at a high level.

 

The most important thing is to not double and triple down over and over. Once McD and Beane have built enough goodwill, you have to know when to plan for 2 or 3 years in the future to make another run. I'm okay with a weird 9 or 10 win year where we are shedding some older players and retooling to make a deep run.

 

There aren't teams that are going to consistently draft superstars to perfectly replace their old blue chip players to constantly compete. It doesn't happen. And even if it did, we certainly don't appear to be that team. There is a distinct aspect of luck. The Seahawks got a couple HoFers in a row and that jammed open their window. They regressed in drafting JAGs more often than not and thus their window slid smaller.

 

I hope AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau become stars on the edge. It would be helpful. And when they are old and expensive, I hope we draft players to replace them who will also be stars. But that just doesn't really happen. "Building to win now and win in the future" just isn't real.

 

I don't disagree with what you are saying and I think our posts compliment each other.

 

I fully agree that you can have multiple windows in a franchise QB's tenure, and we'll see that in Buffalo. I think we are in a wide open window right now and it will get more narrow in a couple of years, but with some retooling and developing, that window can get wider again.

 

I don't think the super bowl is the only measure, though. Even though the Patriots had that 10 year super bowl drought, they were still going deep into the playoffs most years and were legitimate super bowl contenders, even if they didn't win a super bowl during those years. They consistently won their division and won playoff games throughout that decade.

[Royale with Cheese]

Only God can close the door and I think he likes watching Allen so probably a long time.

[reddogblitz]

I have no idea and neither does anyone else really. So just win it now this year.

[Just in Atlanta]

Losing both coordinators at once could have a more serious impact than some want to believe. I hope we keep at least one. 

 

If we lose both Daboll and Frazier, I'm guessing a one and done playoff next year then back on top for two more years after that. 

 

The question is, how many after that? The answer lies in how healthy Allen can stay with his playing style. Even Roethlisberger changed his style as he got older due to injury. 

 

With Allen, anything is possible.