How long will the Bills window be open?

[Kwai San]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The same question could be asked about the KC Chiefs and other recent top teams.  Fans like to use a few reasons that I will

cite for the "window" and its length.

 

1.  Window is determined on QB salary:

Paying a QB (which starts for KC next and the Bills in 2023) puts cap limits in play but I believe not as much as some fans think.

It takes away 1 big money impact player at the peak of his salary.  That is not a crippling situation.  It is constantly brought up that

a QB salary at times is a bargain a few years after a big contract is signed.  Allen signing for 6 years is great as long as his play

stays elite.

 

2.  Current star players aging:

It's a constant issue for every team regardless of records.  Having a long-term plan which identifies these players and having replacements

in mind (especially on the team in a depth position) is paramount.  Smart FA and drafting of course is the key to this.  Staggering your high priced

players and rookie contracts ease's the transitions.

 

3.  High dollar FAs:  

It seems to me the most controversial issue argued about.  Reason being the window will not remain open for long so grab as many

FAs now (and worry about the consequences later) to run for a Super Bowl.  I imagine this FA period there will be dozens of threads

arguing the pros and cons of each player talked about.  IMO it is one of the most misused choices made by GMs/HCs.  Signing high

dollar FAs that don't perform can slam that window faster than anything but signing the ones that excel is a game changer.

 

Beane and McDermott have said over and over they want a long run with the Bills.  Having Josh Allen makes that all possible.

Beane will have to resist going after too many impact FAs and will have to follow a long-term plan and hope it works more years

than not.  Using the "window" analogy I'm expecting Beane to attempt to keep his window as open as possible in any given year

without creating a situation that slams the window shut in the future.

 

It's an extremely hard thing to do but I am very interested to watch him attempt to do it!  I try to keep all this in mind after every one

of Beane's moves!

 

Excellent post sir!!!

[Robert Paulson]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The window will always be open with 17 but I really think we have to get one this year or next.  The safety tandem is getting older.  They aren’t just a good pairing.  P&H are much more.  
 

Hyde, 31, has 2 years left on his contract 

Poyer, 30, has 1 year left on his contract

 

 

We drafted o line, and d line this year. upcoming draft is interior o line and safeties.

 

Beane is being proactive and likes to give replacements a year if he can to learn before inserting into starting lineup. Is there an inexpensive  receiver to step up to replace Beas and Sanders? Diggs  and Davis are set but who plays after them?  McKittrick might be too expensive and Stevenson needs more time.  TE room is nothing past Knox. those will probably be addressed as well . 

 

There is work to be done on the back half of the roster to get less expensive subs ready but it looks like the Bills brass understands how to do that. If we win it all there may be a slightly bigger vet purge than expected as they will have their rings and the Bills will have a lot of good will with the fans to quickly retool and maybe take a step back for a year since it is so hard to repeat anyways.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Robert Paulson

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

We drafted o line, and d line this year. upcoming draft is interior o line and safeties.

 

Beane is being proactive and likes to give replacements a year if he can to learn before inserting into starting lineup. Is there an inexpensive  receiver to step up to replace Beas and Sanders? Diggs  and Davis are set but who plays after them?  McKittrick might be too expensive and Stevenson needs more time.  TE room is nothing past Knox. those will probably be addressed as well . 

 

There is work to be done on the back half of the roster to get less expensive subs ready but it looks like the Bills brass understands how to do that. If we win it all there may be a slightly bigger vet purge than expected as they will have their rings and the Bills will have a lot of good will with the fans to quickly retool and maybe take a step back for a year since it is so hard to repeat anyways.

Agreed.  Just realize that we won’t be drafting another P&H combo.  Our safety tandem is almost guaranteed to be lesser, hopefully not significantly due to McD tutelage.  The new guys probably won’t have Frazier to lean on.  He’s a wealth of safety knowledge 

[zow2]

I can't minimize the importance of culture either.  I used to blow this off.  Gimme talented flawed guys over choir boys.  Well, this current Bills team talks alot about how they all get along, and hang out off the field.  The position units are all close knit.  We don't need a team of choir boys but bringing in quality people seems to be a specialty of Beane and McD..  Keep it going.

[Son of a K-Gun]

I saw somebody tweet out the other day that Jim Kelly took his first snap for the Bills at age 26.  Josh won't take a snap at age 26 until this September.  This could be one big window.

[PrimeTime101]

The hardest player to get at highest quality is QB. As long as we have Josh? Enjoy the ride!  

[CincyBillsFan]

Let's not forget that BOTH Amazon & Apple have made live sports events their number one priority and no live sporting event can touch the NFL.  The CAP is going to explode over the next couple of years. This will:

 

*  Make Allen's contract look cheap faster then you think.

 

*  Combine the big CAP bumps with an increased revenue stream from a new stadium and the Pegula's will be able to have their cake & eat it to - we'll see free agent signings where needed while the overall financial situation for the Bills improves.  Talk about a perfect sweet spot.

 

Finally the Bills have a franchise coach & GM.  Keep them happy and in Buffalo and this run will go on.

 

 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

16 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

We drafted o line, and d line this year. upcoming draft is interior o line and safeties.

 

Beane is being proactive and likes to give replacements a year if he can to learn before inserting into starting lineup. Is there an inexpensive  receiver to step up to replace Beas and Sanders? Diggs  and Davis are set but who plays after them?  McKittrick might be too expensive and Stevenson needs more time.  TE room is nothing past Knox. those will probably be addressed as well . 

 

There is work to be done on the back half of the roster to get less expensive subs ready but it looks like the Bills brass understands how to do that. If we win it all there may be a slightly bigger vet purge than expected as they will have their rings and the Bills will have a lot of good will with the fans to quickly retool and maybe take a step back for a year since it is so hard to repeat anyways.

 

I agree.  One thing that I have to add is how well Beane and McDermott seem to work together.  I know they have a plan they are

following and that will mean that McDermott will at times have to live with "what he's got" and scheme around it.

I sure hope it can continue and all I can say about the team of Brandon and Sean is, "The whole is greater than the sum of the parts".

Edited January 18, 2022 by ColoradoBills

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

One draft note that I think is sometimes overlooked, is the fact that good GMs (especially ones that aren't worried about being replaced in a year or two) spend their high draft picks on the most expensive positions if possible.  Look at the amount of DEs, O line, and obviously 1 QB that have been picked in the top rounds lately.  Some of these players have not been expected to contribute significantly for the first year.  Bad GMs may try for the splashy players and don't consider the comparitive cost to sign that position in free agency.  This may be due to having to show results with these draft picks right away.  Beane has done an admirable job stocking some expensive positions through the draft.

[Son of a K-Gun]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Let's not forget that BOTH Amazon & Apple have made live sports events their number one priority and no live sporting event can touch the NFL.  The CAP is going to explode over the next couple of years. This will:

 

*  Make Allen's contract look cheap faster then you think.

 

*  Combine the big CAP bumps with an increased revenue stream from a new stadium and the Pegula's will be able to have their cake & eat it to - we'll see free agent signings where needed while the overall financial situation for the Bills improves.  Talk about a perfect sweet spot.

 

Finally the Bills have a franchise coach & GM.  Keep them happy and in Buffalo and this run will go on.

 

 

 

 

I can also see Buffalo becoming a signing destination for better talent as the legend of Josh continues to grow.  Wouldn't that be a change from the past??

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Son of a K-Gun said:

I can also see Buffalo becoming a signing destination for better talent as the legend of Josh continues to grow.  Wouldn't that be a change from the past??

 

While I know you mean players it could be worth mentioning that there is a possibility that the Bills will need to replace Schoen, Daboll and Frazier.

If that happens it will be critical that Beane and McDermott get the right replacements.

[TheCockSportif]

With JA17, the window will be open for a long time.  Thank goodness that people like Losman and Manuel don't have to violate my eyes anymore, oh yeah, and coaches like people after Phillips until Ryan.  Sky's the limit, but the team has to get it done.

[nucci]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

As long as Allen is the QB  So the next decade and a half

what he said

[MJS]

It all depends on how your team was built. It is a different answer for every team.

 

Many teams get their QB then they go out and sell the farm for high priced free agents, they make big trades for players, etc. They sell out for the super bowl window and kick the can down the road. They have a few years to make it work until they have to pay the piper.

 

Other teams were built through the draft, like Seattle. Seattle has two really great drafts that netted them some elite players. They were good for awhile and then they got old and expensive. They weren't able to replicate those drafts or replace aging talent with young, cheaper talent. So they fizzled out eventually.

 

The Bills were built through the draft and through free agency. They have focused on sustainability. Winning now and in the future. They focus on developing young talent. They are going to enter a phase where each draft is going to be more and more important as they will have less wiggle room in free agency and re-signing contracts due to Allen's and other foundational player's contracts. If they do that well, the window is open for as long as Allen is the QB. Beane doesn't like to kick the can down the road. He likes to pay the piper sooner rather than later, and that helps keep the future manageable.

 

I'd say the current window is as wide open as it will be and that will last for a couple more years.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, KingBoots8 said:

I’ll be honest here: I think we have 2 years after this season, then we have a lot of aging veteran players who will be likely on their way out of town.
 

We have maybe 1-2 down years (wildcard years) while we build back up with younger talent, then another 6-8+ years. After that it all depends on Josh and the rest of the team

I really disagree, here. While we do currently have 15 players on the 53 who are 29, or older, we also have a GM who is constantly building for the future. We also have a coaching staff that understands the importance of development. In fact, quite a few of our current starters had humble beginnings in the league, but were developed into starters. You'll never see Beane/McD drafting a player because they were "the most NFL ready," like the previous regime did with Zay Jones, or the Patriots* did with Mac & Cheese.

 

They're far more likely to draft, and acquire based on future potential. That can be risky, but Beane, and his staff have proven to be expert at recognizing potential, with a high value placed on character. Spencer Brown, Ryan Bates, Levi Wallace, AJ Epenesa, Groot Rousseau, Ike Boettger-- all guys acquired for their potential, and some of them with very little tape.

 

And then look at some of the guys currently on our practice squad: Tanner Gentry, Joe Giles-Harris, Isaiah Hodgins, Nick McCloud, Quinten Morris, Josh Thomas, Antonio Williams. All being developed. Don't be surprised to see some of these guys on the 53 in the next couple seasons-- some even as starters.

[zow2]

Another aspect for the Bills is to NOT chase plug-in talent by giving up draft picks.   I don't think Beane is loose with draft picks.  The Rams only have 4 picks left in the 2022 draft (in rounds 5-7).  They gave up a bunch for Von Miller and of course Stafford.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, KingBoots8 said:

I’ll be honest here: I think we have 2 years after this season, then we have a lot of aging veteran players who will be likely on their way out of town.
 

We have maybe 1-2 down years (wildcard years) while we build back up with younger talent, then another 6-8+ years. After that it all depends on Josh and the rest of the team

Aging veterans where? On the defensive line?    They are pretty well but we have a lot of depth there.  Plenty of depth at wr too but we will lose Beasley and sanders soon if not this season so I could see us drafting a few of those in the next two years.  Can’t think of too many other old players…beane seems like he’s always a few moves ahead.  Mitch Morse looks like he’s 40 but he’s only 29 lol

[corta765]

With the current roster 3-4 years or so before age really sets in. NOW the window doesn't shut after that as with Allen he will keep it open to a decent degree, but there will be some change. Typically most franchise QB's see their first act and then there is a 2nd act. The key is once the roster turns over how fast you can infuse new impactful pieces to keep it going. If you look at Big Ben the 2000s he had one group of players and then the 2010s another group. They did reinfuse him with talent Brown/Bell etc.. but never got past the Brady hurdle and their own hubris. 

 

The one thing with windows is they close before you realize it. You can basically pin point with every great QB and team when there's truly closed. For the 90s Bills their last great gasp was the Steelers loss in 95. After that Kelly was pretty much done in 96 physically and the gas was dry. BUT going into 96 you wouldn't have thought that at the time. In 2019 the Pats window clearly closed as Brady and a decent defense got rolled by the Titans at home. But people still thought until he left they would reload and be good. The Seahawks exploded like a supernova in 2012 but after their loss in 2014 the magic never came back. I think a lot of people would've figured another SB run would happen but here we are and they faded.

 

In general windows being open are really really tough in all sports. Golden State in the NBA ran super hot for 7 years and then fell back for two. The examples are endless. For the Bills it is reasonable to say they probably have 3-4 years here. One of the other things thought is outside of NE/Brady most of the time you get maybe 1-3 cracks at winning the title. Brees and Rodgers each have only one a single title, Ben won 2 and went to 3, Manning went to 4 and won 2, Eli won 2, Russel Wilson went to 2 won one, etc.. It is incredibly difficult to get a ton of cracks and once your there that could be your only shot. Marino went year 2 and never again, but Kelly went to 4 and Elway 5. So yea maybe the Bills win the SB this year (god willing) but it is very possible despite the window being open that could be our only crack (not complaining if they win). The AFC is loaded with young talented QBs in Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, & Jackson who will all challenge Allen even with his and the Bills window open. If they all eventually get even one crack apiece this decade, that leaves four chances for Josh to have his or go. That isn't including either that some young hotshot comes in to join the crew like Lawrence. In general what I would say is feel good about the fact at some point in probably the next 7-8 years Allen and the Bills will get their chance at the crown and make their run god wiling. How many more times they do after that? There is just soo much that goes into it and you need a little luck too

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

Obviously last season the window opened up wide for us...and it continues this season.  How often do you see one team ranked with the #1 overall defense, the #5 overall offense, awesome QB, talent everywhere, great coach with assistants being coveted around the league....etc.

 

My question (knowing there is no concrete answer), how long does the window stay wide open like this..  For the next 2-3 seasons? For the entirety of Josh Allen's career?  

 

 

 

 

As long as we have Allen playing anywhere close to this level.

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Let's not forget that BOTH Amazon & Apple have made live sports events their number one priority and no live sporting event can touch the NFL.  The CAP is going to explode over the next couple of years. This will:

 

*  Make Allen's contract look cheap faster then you think.

 

*  Combine the big CAP bumps with an increased revenue stream from a new stadium and the Pegula's will be able to have their cake & eat it to - we'll see free agent signings where needed while the overall financial situation for the Bills improves.  Talk about a perfect sweet spot.

 

Finally the Bills have a franchise coach & GM.  Keep them happy and in Buffalo and this run will go on.

 

The other key is the Pegula's willingness to spend up front. That is vital in the modern NFL because of the ways cap management is done these days. I think it is the problem Cincy will face. They have a really talented young team - especially on offense - but because of their ownership they don't have the option to be as creative with their cap. They are much more of a cash to cap model which means once you have got your stars tied in adding those extra pieces - that key vet at position X where you just need a guy to get you over the hump - is going to be hard for them.