Divisional Round: Buffalo at KC Sunday at 6:30

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

They asked the chair of the math department at UB to calculate 0.5 to the 10th power?

 

They asked him the odds of calling it right 10 times in a row.  It's not 50%, it's less than 1%.

[Wacka]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

3.5

[Freddie's Dead]

The prevailing theme is that the KC defense and offense have improved more than the Bills D and O since week 5.  The NFL is about to get a rude awakening.  I'm feeling a show of dominance by the Bills coming on, an emphatic statement to garner respect.  The next 4.5 hours will be the longest of my life.  I CAN'T WAIT!!!

Edited January 23, 2022 by Freddie's Dead

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

The prevailing theme is that the KC defense and offense have improved more than the Bills D and O since week 5.  The NFL is about to get a rude awakening.  I'm feeling a show of dominance by the Bills coming on, an emphatic statement to garner respect.  The next 4.5 hours will be the longest of my life.  I CAN'T WAIT!!!

 

The Bills went into last week to make a statement.  They succeeded.  The Bills will make another statement tonight.

[Freddie's Dead]

NFL Game Day Morning:  Which offense has the advantage?  Mooch:  Chefs, Kurt:  Chefs, Irv:  Chefs,  Eisen:  Chefs.  You guys are gonna be eating some crow after the game.  No one is giving the Bills O or D any respect whatsoever.

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

They asked him the odds of calling it right 10 times in a row.  It's not 50%, it's less than 1%.

 

Yeah, I know. They didn't need to ask a department chair to perform basic high school math.

[TwistofFate]

I've been cruising around on the Chiefs board.  I want nothing more than to smoke these chiefs like a rack of ribs. 

 

They are complaining about the chiefs not getting media respect... Lmao...the media has done nothing but fall all over the chiefs and mahomes for a couple years. 

 

They believe this will be a blow out against us and won't be competitive. 

 

They believe we, "blew our wad" against a terrible NE team, and haven't faced a defense like theirs all year....they like to forget about earlier this year. 

 

They believe our defense is ***** and have only produced against bottom feeders. 

 

They believe when they jump out to a lead Allen will crumble into a hot mess allowing their defense to capitalize. 

 

Some believe this will be a toss up game going either way, but they are in the minority and are chastised for saying so. 

 

I hope we crush these *****. 

Edited January 23, 2022 by TwistofFate

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

I've been cruising around on the Chiefs board.  I want nothing more than to smoke these chiefs like a rack of ribs. 

 

They are complaining about the chiefs not getting media respect... Lmao...the media has done nothing but fall all over the chiefs and mahomes for a couple years. 

 

They believe this will be a blow out against us and won't be competitive. 

 

They believe we, "blew our wad" against a terrible NE team, and haven't faced a defense like there's all year....they like to forget about earlier this year. 

 

They believe our defense is ***** and have only produced against bottom feeders. 

 

They believe when they jump out to a lead Allen will crumble into a hot mess allowing their defense to capitalize. 

 

Some believe this will be a toss up game going either way, but they are in the minority and are chastised for saying so. 

 

I hope we crush these *****. 

 

??????

 

KC D is #8 on points

#5 for TO

#26 for pass NY/A

#31 for rush Y/A

#24 for first downs given up

#27 for yards given up

 

The Patriots are the #2 ranked D for points, we faced them 3x

The Saints are #4, beat them in prime-time on Thanksgiving

Tampa and Titans are #5 and #5 for points, we lost to both but in OT and down to the last play of the game (could have done OT)

Oh yeah, and we beat them too....

 

I can understand feeling their D is more competitive now than it was  in week 5 so they have a better chance

 

But I can't understand the confidence "this will be a blow-out"

 

Well except that a few here feel that way, I guess there are always people who are delusional

 

[Peace Frog]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

??????

 

KC D is #8 on points

#5 for TO

#26 for pass NY/A

#31 for rush Y/A

#24 for first downs given up

#27 for yards given up

 

The Patriots are the #2 ranked D for points, we faced them 3x

The Saints are #4, beat them in prime-time on Thanksgiving

Tampa and Titans are #5 and #5 for points, we lost to both but in OT and down to the last play of the game (could have done OT)

Oh yeah, and we beat them too....

 

I can understand feeling their D is more competitive now than it was  in week 5 so they have a better chance

 

But I can't understand the confidence "this will be a blow-out"

 

Well except that a few here feel that way, I guess there are always people who are delusional

 

 

How's THIS for overconfidence?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

 

How's THIS for overconfidence?

 

I shared it up-thread.  Typical Nick Wrong BS

[longtimebillsfan]

4 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

Not true.  No matter how many times a coin flip  comes up heads, that does not effect the odds of a single random event with two equally probable outcomes.  

 

If you are talking about the odds of that same random event happening 10 consecutive times, that is a different story.  This is simple statistics.

 

I know some on here enjoy debating about almost any topic, I do not.   This is not a hill I want to die on.  You are certainly entitled to your opinion.

 

GO BILLS.

Edited January 23, 2022 by longtimebillsfan

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

??????

 

KC D is #8 on points

#5 for TO

#26 for pass NY/A

#31 for rush Y/A

#24 for first downs given up

#27 for yards given up

 

The Patriots are the #2 ranked D for points, we faced them 3x

The Saints are #4, beat them in prime-time on Thanksgiving

Tampa and Titans are #5 and #5 for points, we lost to both but in OT and down to the last play of the game (could have done OT)

Oh yeah, and we beat them too....

 

I can understand feeling their D is more competitive now than it was  in week 5 so they have a better chance

 

But I can't understand the confidence "this will be a blow-out"

 

Well except that a few here feel that way, I guess there are always people who are delusional

 

I think this is what makes me nervous for this game in particular.

 

I can see scenarios where we win by 20. I can just as easily see scenarios where we lose by 20. And they are just as plausible as either team winning by 3. Seeing how the story of this game unfolds and how quickly Josh gets in his zone is the big linchpin for me.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Keep calm, do your 1/11.

The Bills are a great team. 

The whole world will realize that tonight. 

[dave mcbride]

On 1/18/2022 at 10:22 AM, dave mcbride said:

My concern is that the Bills not-particularly-athletic CBs will be exposed in a big way. In the first game, they had White man-to-man on Kelce for most of the game and doubled Hill. Neither had a 20-yard catch and while their numbers were OK, they were mostly contained. Neither Kelce nor Hill averaged 10 ypc. I simply don't think Jackson can handle Kelce. It'll be interesting to see what scheme Frazier comes up with because the Chiefs offense presents a real challenge to them with White gone. 

There hasn't been a drop-off from White because outside of TB they Bills haven't really played a good passing attack. KC will be the best passing attack they've faced by far in the past 5 games. 

I hate to say I told you so, but … 

Mahomes threw 44 passes last night and NOT ONE pass was defensed. That is TERRIBLE.

 

@Bill from NYC will hate this, but I really think they need to draft a CB high if a good one is available. 

[Bill from NYC]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

@Bill from NYC will hate this, but I really think they need to draft a CB high if a good one is available. 

Why not? After all it has worked just SO well for us!  Who needs better weapons and more protection for our future HOF QB, right?

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Why not? After all it has worked just SO well for us!  Who needs better weapons and more protection for our future HOF QB, right?

They lost last night because of their cornerbacks, full stop. They did not lose because of a lack of weapons on offense.

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

They lost last night because of their cornerbacks, full stop. They did not lose because of a lack of weapons on offense.

Of course not. Blocking didn't matter either, nor does keeping Josh healthy matter all that much about the teams's future, right?

 

No, let's keep drafting 1st round DBs, especially for need. Then we can all die and go to first round defensive back heaven, having not won the big prize.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:

Of course not. Blocking didn't matter either, nor does keeping Josh healthy matter all that much about the teams's future, right?

 

No, let's keep drafting 1st round DBs, especially for need. Then we can all die and go to first round defensive back heaven, having not won the big prize.

The best first round pick the Bills have made outside of Josh Allen in the last decade is a CB. Just sayin'.

[Bill from NYC]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The best first round pick the Bills have made outside of Josh Allen in the last decade is a CB. Just sayin'.

Do you mean the one that we spurned Mahomes for? 

Other than Josh, how many first round picks do we have on offense Dave?

Btw, I prefer Josh to Mahomes but trading away a chance for him (on a team that needed a QB) was inexcusably stupid, no? But, this has been discussed forever.

And speaking of defense, I keyed on Edmunds for the bulk of the game and came away utterly unimpressed. How would you rate his performance?

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Do you mean the one that we spurned Mahomes for? 

Other than Josh, how many first round picks do we have on offense Dave?

Btw, I prefer Josh to Mahomes but trading away a chance for him (on a team that needed a QB) was inexcusably stupid, no? But, this has been discussed forever.

And speaking of defense, I keyed on Edmunds for the bulk of the game and came away utterly unimpressed. How would you rate his performance?

I just don't know regarding Edmunds. I think he does things that put him in a position to make him look unimpressive (not a lot of downhill plays), but the Bills all season have had a very, very disciplined pass defense, and he's the lynchpin of it -- basically a short range centerfielder who is always lurking. Anyway, it's impossible for me to say because I don't know enough about what he actually brings to this scheme specifically. He did rally to the tackle a LOT last night, and that's key to this defense. But whatever he does or doesn't do, they are simply incapable of covering fast players in KC's scheme.

 

I agree about the Mahomes pick, but White had no control over that and he turned out to be a great player. This is a defense that needs good, instinctive, and physical corners, and he's elite in that area. Without them, the defense just doesn't really work. Next year is must-win for the Bills, and I worry about rolling out there with Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace for the first half of the season while White completes his recovery. Jackson looked better than he really is because he was blessed with starting in a slew of brutal-weather games late in the season. Both he and Wallace were exposed last night. Johnson is the best of the three.