TwistofFate Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Pokebball said: Yes, yes we are. 9 flips ago the odds were really against him doing so. Today, it's 50% You got spunk my man. Flip a coin 10 times and let me know when you get 10 in a row. 1 minute ago, LeGOATski said: Knowing Josh, he's probably flipping coins at home in preparation. I can't tell you how much I love this. Lmao! Quote
Johnnycage46 Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Coin flipping? This seems like a drought-era topic... Quote
Comebackkid Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 11 hours ago, LeGOATski said: I hope I made it. Nooooooo!!! you sound like green bay! Quote
GoBills808 Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: This poster is correct depending on the question. Each independent coin flip is 50/50 but the odds of getting the same face 11 times in a row is .05% Yes. Another way of looking at it is there are 2^11 different combinations of outcomes of a coin flipped 11 times and heads (or tails) all 11 times is 1 in 2^11 or 1 in 2048 or as you’ve correctly pointed out .00049. edited 11 not 21 Edited January 23, 2022 by GoBills808 2 Quote
HappyDays Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Bleed Bills Blue said: "What are the odds of Allen going 10-0 tonight? According to Gino Biondini, chair of the department of mathematics at the University at Buffalo, 0.097656%." They asked the chair of the math department at UB to calculate 0.5 to the 10th power? Edited January 23, 2022 by HappyDays 1 1 Quote
newcam2012 Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Some concerns on defense. How do the Bills contain Kelce? He has hurt us in the past. With no Tre I'm afraid of Hills big play ability. McKinnon is rhe pass game is scary. Mahomes is clutch I'm afraid his legs will hurt tje Bills today. The Bills offense looks equally dangerous. I don't think tjeir secondary can stop our talented pass catchers. Allen's legs will also be key. In the past, KC has given zero time for Allen to throw. Hooe this changes with the Bills having a serious run threat and screen game. On paper this sure loooks juicy. Who would have thought both number 1 seeds would lose yesterday. Quote
HappyDays Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 48 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: It's not. The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you. It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. Try it for yourself. Flip a coin 10 times in a row. 50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%. Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth. It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. What in the absolute hell. I'm sending this paragraph to Gino Biondini, I hope he gets back to me. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 I think the point is that if he had called the sequence in preseason it would have been a lot more impressive Quote
HappyDays Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, TwistofFate said: We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. This is the not the Bills debate I expected to have today but I'm here for it. There's a difference between correctly guessing 10 flips in a row before the first flip, and guessing the 10th flip alone after guessing the first 9 flips correctly. The chance of Allen calling the coin flip correctly tonight is 50%, and if you think you have an argument against that think a little harder. Edited January 23, 2022 by HappyDays 2 2 Quote
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 I have to go with a Sheldon Cooper reaction to this "debate". "Yet another child left behind". 1 Quote
Locomark Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. 1 Quote
Andrew Son Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Locomark said: Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. Defer. Let's not change who we are because we're playing the big bad chiefs. 1 Quote
Locomark Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, SWATeam said: Defer. Let's not change who we are because we're playing the big bad chiefs. I agree, was just curious how others felt. Quote
Big Turk Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Road teams 2 for 2. Chance to host the AFCCG on the line! Let's go Bills! Quote
Donuts and Doritos Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 Text from a friend: "For decades a small market team from one of the fastest shrinking areas of the country has excelled at disappointment. Though it is the only team in one of the most prominent states in the Union, like the area it embodies, this team is overlooked as the "other team" from the "other NY", Upstate NY. This team is a reflection of it's fans, poorer in success, but rich in heart, grit and an unparalleled pig headed determination. The unkind decades have relegated past glories to unimaginable fairy tales and scattered many to distant lands. Yet we proud few remain year after year to beat our heads against the wall of doubt, in hopes that this year, yes this year, might be the year we break through the doorway of success. To be there for the glory of that moment, we return again and again to cheer on a little unheralded team from a forgotten place we call home. So against all odds, weather conditions and any rational thought there is no place that we happy few would rather be than "right here, right now", where we still Bill-ieve!" 2 Quote
Scott7975 Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, Locomark said: Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. You defer and get your defense to stop the first drive. Being able to double dip is always the best answer. 1 1 Quote
Freddie's Dead Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 LOL on Countdown to Kickoff, they ask Steve Tasker if he's got a stogie for after the game. He pulls out a nice 'gar about 7 inches long and 3/4" thick. Then they ask him, what if we win? He pulls out a schwantz about 10" long and 1 1/2" inches thick!! Biggest 'gar I ever saw!! 1 Quote
BuffaloBillyG Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, Locomark said: Score Bills 34- Chiefs 27. My only weigh in on the coin flip is if you win it, do you actually defer this week or so you take the ball because this game is all about points and you want them early. The players and fans are always super amped at kickoff. So I would defer. After the half a lot of fans traditionally are still coming back to their seats and getting settled. Much less chaos to deal with. Kick, stop them and withstand the emotional rush often seen the first half of the 1st quarter and you are in excellent shape. Quote
wppete Posted January 23, 2022 Posted January 23, 2022 It’s going to get messy my friends. 1:30 and I just cracked opened my first beer. Can’t wait any longer. Let’s go!! 1 Quote
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