Divisional Round: Buffalo at KC Sunday at 6:30

[Boatdrinks]

28 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

I get your point, the games have to be played etc.. Your analogy would work better if the coin flip was replaced with something that has a 75% chance of happening.

What % of #1 seeds win their divisional round game? Did it matter to the Titans or the Packers ? Home teams were slightly under 50% in the NFL this season. Perhaps that’s more predictive than what happened in say, the 1970’s. 

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

DON'T LET CHRIS JONES WRECK THE GAME LIKE LAST YEAR'S AFC CHAMPIONSHIP.

The Bills fell short in many areas besides handling Chris Jones in that game. It’s taken on an almost mythical status now. Anyway the Bills are much healthier and playing at a higher level than they were in the 2020 playoffs. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

I don’t gamble, but I remember reading Tuesday Morning Quarterback. The author would always give the stat that the home team wins nearly 75% of the divisional round games. 
 

We’re now rooting for a complete sweep by the road teams (assuming we all want Brady bounced). 

I’d say the smart money is on the remaining home teams. 

The home teams today are both still the favorites.  But, unless there’s a fix or bias from the NFL to favor the home teams today, the outcome of yesterday’s games are independent of today’s.

[Simon]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Phew?

 

He's probably Canadian 🤷‍♂️

 

 

[McMuffin]

All of the prognosticators are saying it’s going to be high scoring and close. Buffalo has the better defense.  KC’s defense is worse than the Patriots. We can stop them more than they can stop us. Screw it.  Flip the narrative on it’s head. Give me Buffalo 31-10.

[TwistofFate]

2 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

50%

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

A hype video that gave me goosebumps and I really enjoyed the music in the background. So much better than others. Who's singing?

[CorkScrewHill]

Kyle Williams narrated video: Coming soon:Bills vs Chiefs

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/coming-soon-bills-vs-chiefs-x6137

[Pokebball]

7 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

The odds of going 10-0, at the time you start the first flip is different than the odds of each individual flip.  Each individual flip remains at 50%,

 

LOL what are we doing?  Shouldn't we be cooking up some vittles?

Edited January 23, 2022 by Pokebball

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

  I’ve been working til 2am the last couple days and my body already has an internal alarm built in that wakes me up between 3 am and 6am regularly.  I went to bed @ 3am last night and woke up at 5:30, couldn’t get back to sleep or take a nap all day. Just finishing up a crazy night at work now and just praying that I can sleep til 8 or 9, but I’m sure I’ll sleep by 3 and wake by 5.  Grrrrrrrrrrrr.  I’m gonna be a zombie all day tomorrow. 

4 hours sleep last night.  More than I expected.

 

LET’S F*********************************
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[mannc]

2 hours ago, Bleed Bills Blue said:

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/chiefs-bills-rams-buccaneers-game-time-channel-stream-nfl-playoffs-20220123.html

 

"Allen is 8-0 this season calling the coin toss on the road, where the visiting team’s captain calls heads or tails at midfield.  If you add in the Week 14 overtime coin toss against the Buccaneers, he’s 9-0.

 

What are the odds of Allen going 10-0 tonight? According to Gino Biondini, chair of the department of mathematics at the University at Buffalo, 0.097656%."

 

I don't know...seems like a 50/50 proposition to me. Of course, since it's Josh Allen, I would bump that up to 100%.

That’s either a poorly written article, or UB needs to revoke Prof Biondini’s tenure…

[TwistofFate]

8 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

The odds of going 10-0, at the time you start the first flip is different than the odds of each individual flip.  Each individual flip remains at 50%,

 

LOL what are we doing?  Shouldn't we be cooking up some vittles?

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

[Pokebball]

8 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

When you say compounded probability you are taking the multiple flips together.  I'm talking about one flip always being 50/50. For example, the odds of heads with one flip is 50%.  The odds of getting heads two times in a row is .5 x .5, or .25.

 

We're gonna have to agree to disagree...and I'm right.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Pokebball

[RiotAct]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

That’s either a poorly written article, or UB needs to revoke Prof Biondini’s tenure…

whoa!   I had him for MTH306 (Differential Equations) back in 2006, my sophomore year.

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

Question for you…if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads all 10 times, what are the chances it comes up heads again on the 11th flip?

 

Heads by a billion!

[Scott7975]

35 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not 50%, it's .0488%, or a 1 in 2,048 chances. 

 

This poster is correct depending on the question.  Each independent coin flip is 50/50 but the odds of getting the same face 11 times in a row is .05%

[Nextmanup]

It occurred to me yesterday, while watching Titans vs. Bengals, that Nantz and Romo will be doing OUR GAME TODAY.

 

Aside from Al Michaels, that is as good as NFL broadcasting gets these days (I know, it's pretty bad).

 

Looking forward to this crew calling the game--and we'll get them again next week in the AFC championship game too (KNOCK ON WOOD).

 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It occurred to me yesterday, while watching Titans vs. Bengals, that Nantz and Romo will be doing OUR GAME TODAY.

 

Aside from Al Michaels, that is as good as NFL broadcasting gets these days (I know, it's pretty bad).

 

Looking forward to this crew calling the game--and we'll get them again next week in the AFC championship game too (KNOCK ON WOOD).

 

 

I liked Romo his first year.  Its almost like the band that sold out and commercialized themselves now.  I still like them better than most though.

 

You gave me a thumbs down above.  I don't know what because I was correct in what I said.

[TwistofFate]

16 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

When you say compounded probability you are taking the multiple flips together.  I'm talking about one flip always being 50/50. For example, the odds of heads with one flip is 50%.  The odds of getting heads two times in a row is .5 x .5, or .25.

 

We're gonna have to agree to disagree...and I'm right.

My guy, you aren't right. Lol. 

 

We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. 

[Pokebball]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

My guy, you aren't right. Lol. 

 

We are talking about multiple flips we are talking about Josh Allen going to flip 10 times in a row and calling them all correctly. 

Yes, yes we are.  9 flips ago the odds were really against him doing so.  Today, it's 50%

[LeGOATski]

27 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

It's not.  The more you flip, the compounded probability stacks against you.  It becomes more and more unlikely you will choose correctly based on pure math. 

 

Try it for yourself.  Flip a coin 10 times in a row.  50% chance only exists on the first flip. Flip it again and call it and your chances of calling it correctly again are reduced to 25%.  Flip it again and your chances of calling it correctly are reduced to 12.5% and so on and so forth.  It's compound probability. The only way to get back to a true 50% chance, is to call it wrong and break the cycle, otherwise the odds of continuing to call it right will continue to stack against you. 

Knowing Josh, he's probably flipping coins at home in preparation.