Divisional Round: Buffalo at KC Sunday at 6:30

[Logic]

Neither the Bengals nor the Titans are going to beat the Bills or Chiefs in the playoffs.

Whoever wins the Bills-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Logic

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

3 hours ago, eball said:

Serious question for the X-and-O’ers on the forum…what’s your thinking regarding the Bills’ D and how they cope with all of KC’s speed this week?  I believe Allen and our O will continue to perform at a high level because of the balance and versatility we’ve shown, but crazy stuff happens and I’d like to think we can get a somewhat comfortable lead — that will depend upon how well the D can slow KC down.

 

 

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… never understood the “we’re built to beat the Chiefs” narrative… I expect the defense to struggle for much of the game. This games on the offense to match the Chiefs drive for drive.

I'll take a stab at this @eball, it's definitely the million-dollar question this week and the reason why Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier get paid the big bucks. 

 

I share the concerns you guys have noted and I think in today's NFL, elite offense beats elite defense every time. The QBs are too good, the field is too big, and the rules are stacked against the defenders. It's next to impossible to truly stop a high-octane offense like KC's or Buffalo's, the best you can hope for is making them work their way down the field over double digit plays, tackle well, allow FG attempts instead of TDs in the red zone, and try to force negative plays or turnovers. I wouldn't expect the Bills defense to dominate this Sunday and they very well could struggle (which I would consider as giving up 25+ points and 350+ yards based on their usual league-leading averages). 

 

That said, I do believe in the "defense was built to beat the Chiefs" narrative @ScottLaw mentioned. For one, I think there's a direct correlation between the way Tampa Bay was able to affect Patrick Mahomes using its pass rush in the Super Bowl and the way the Bills struggled in that area last season which led to the double dip of Rousseau and Basham in this draft class by Brandon Beane. The Bills have used a lot of resources including several high draft picks to build a very deep and versatile defensive line group that rotates/keeps everyone fresh and is mostly made up of long-limbed guys at DE who win with power, set the edge, get their hands up to disrupt throwing lanes, and collapse the pocket to prevent a Mahomes from scrambling. The Bills definitely have a type and this kind of outside rusher in theory combines well with the interior pressure someone like Ed Oliver creates against a mobile QB. Now, you can certainly argue with the effectiveness of the execution of this strategy (for example, I wish AJ Epenesa was better at this stage/could we have drafted a more dynamic player with that pick?), but it feels like as good of an approach to the defensive line as you could take without having a Bosa or Watt on your team.

 

In the back seven, I think Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are ideal LBs to combat KC's offense. Edmunds gets a lot of criticism (some fair, some not) for his run defense, but KC is not particularly effective running the ball (16th in run yards per game and the YPC of their primary RB tandem is only 4.1) so this matchup plays to his strengths AKA using his pterodactyl wingspan to take away the middle part of the field in coverage. Milano (who missed our Week 5 game vs KC) can be a tight end eraser when deployed that way (just limited Mac Jones' favorite weapon in Hunter Henry to one catch). Behind them is the most fundamentally sound secondary in football led by the best safety tandem in football. Hyde and Poyer do an outstanding job of showing one coverage pre-snap and rotating to a different one, they're the reasonBuffalo gives up so few chunk plays. Taron Johnson has put together a career best season so far and he's excellent in run support as well. Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are smart, steady CBs, but that's where I think most of our anxiety lies as they have the toughest match up and cannot hang with KC's elite speed at WR. Buffalo will miss Tre White's instincts and ballhawk ability, but to be honest, White can't keep up with Hill or Hardman one-on-one either.  It's all about the secondary working together and knowing the scheme inside-and-out, they'll have to guard these guys as a complete unit and there's always going to be some element of safety help over the top when trying to defend the Chiefs (Hill in particular). 

 

Basically, my plan of attack would be to play contain and collapse the pocket with four rushers with seven defenders back in coverage on the vast majority of plays (very few blitzes). They need to play with proper gap integrity and leverage to prevent those QB scrambles or escapes to extend the play. If they can't reach Mahomes, the line needs to get their arms up to bat down passes especially with some of those weird arm angles Mahomes employs (the perfect example was the TJ Watt tip and Devin Bush INT this past weekend). KC's interior offensive line is really strong, but I think both tackles (Orlando Brown Jr and Andrew Wylie) are beatable. Next, I would chip Kelce with a lineman on as many plays as possible to disrupt their timing and use a combination of Milano shadowing Kelce on some snaps with some bracket coverage using a CB and safety mixed in to keep them guessing.  Edmunds needs to patrol the middle, affect those quick slants/crossers, and fire downhill in the screen game. The secondary needs to bracket Hill with safety help and force targets away from Hill/Kelce in general. It's cliche, but you have to force those other secondary weapons to try to beat you (Hardman, Pringle, Robinson), none of those guys are special as WRs. Overall, I think you live with short completions, then rally and tackle to prevent YAC, and make KC drive the length of the field. Take Hill and Kelce away to the extent possible and limit Mahomes' ability to escape the pocket. It's a tall task, but we did it rather effectively in Week 5 and I trust McDermott, Frazier, and the Bills to figure out a way to do it again.

 

Interested to get your thoughts, Go Bills! 

[Coach Tuesday]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Disagree - Kelce is a lot more shifty than Gronk at this point.

 

He's just a nightmare to cover.  I'd love it if they could just match up Siran Neal on him and have Neal bully him out of his breaks but they've tried that before, I believe, and it didn't go too well.  Taron is just too small to deal with Kelce I'm afraid. 

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, Logic said:

Neither the Bengals nor the Titans are going to beat the Bills or Chiefs in the playoffs.

Whoever wins the Bills-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

If Bills can get the win Sunday and if Bengals can knock off Tenn, I would love that scenario getting the AFCCG at home.

[Warcodered]

Just now, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

If Bills can get the win Sunday and if Bengals can knock off Tenn, I would love that scenario getting the AFCCG at home.

I'd love either scenario Bills vs. Bengals just seems like an awesome match up at this point, and the Titans would have the whole team locked in on vengeance.

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, Warcodered said:

I'd love either scenario Bills vs. Bengals just seems like an awesome match up at this point, and the Titans would have the whole team locked in on vengeance.

Yeah, I get it...but just imagine the amount of glory and what it would be like if Bills win AFCCG at home. OMG! My eyes get a little watery just thinking about it.

[Brand J]

I just don’t get why teams don’t line up a DE over Kelce and jam him at the line when he’s lined up off tackle. Disrupt their timing. He torched the Bills last year and Frazier never adjusted. He was just allowed to run unimpeded down after down. 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Yeah, I get it...but just imagine the amount of glory and what it would be like if Bills win AFCCG at home. OMG! My eyes get a little watery just thinking about it.

It's certainly imaginable for those of us who were there in the early 90's...indeed it's awesome!

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

It's certainly imaginable for those of us who were there in the early 90's...indeed it's awesome!

Yeah for sure.Unfortunately I wasn't in attendance, but I remember very vividly watching like it was yesterday

[ToGoGo]

3 hours ago, njbuff said:

People who find the name “Chiefs” offensive really need to get a grip and find something useful to complain about.

 

Nothing whatsoever is disparaging about that name.

 

You can even argue it's honoring Native Americans. Chiefs were cool people. Leaders and men of character and family. Great warriors and spiritual people. 

[Solomon Grundy]

The Bills are gonna have to occupy Willie Gay/Nick Bolton in this game. I’m not sure if anyone remember me saying to use McKenzie out of the backfield, but this needs to be done again this week. Throw early and often to him and Motor out of the backfield. Make their LBs work. Their depth isn’t great

[Patrick Duffy]

11 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

You can even argue it's honoring Native Americans. Chiefs were cool people. Leaders and men of character and family. Great warriors and spiritual people. 

That's what has always came to my mind when anytime "Chief", or "Chiefs" is mentioned for any subject/reason. Leader/warrior is the 1st thing pops in my mind. I understand "redskins" being offensive to Native Americans. But can't understand Chiefs as offensive. But anyways....

Edited January 18, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[Warcodered]

5 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

That's what has always came to my mind when anytime "Chief", or "Chiefs" is mentioned for any subject/reason. Leader/warrior is the 1st thing pops in my mind. I understand "redskins" being offensive to Native Americans. But can't understand Chiefs as offensive. But anyways....

I guess the issue might be less that it's offensive in a derogatory sense and more in a cultural appropriative one.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I guess the issue might be less that it's offensive in a derogatory sense and more in a cultural appropriative one.

Maybe so....who knows, if the Chiefs name is changed, then I assume Braves also at some point.. But anyways....

[Rampage]

54 minutes ago, Logic said:

Neither the Bengals nor the Titans are going to beat the Bills or Chiefs in the playoffs.

Whoever wins the Bills-Chiefs matchup this Sunday will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Tennessee is probably the most physical team in football. I wouldn't count them out.

[Jauronimo]

16 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

That's what has always came to my mind when anytime "Chief", or "Chiefs" is mentioned for any subject/reason. Leader/warrior is the 1st thing pops in my mind. I understand "redskins" being offensive to Native Americans. But can't understand Chiefs as offensive. But anyways....

I thought "Chief" was a term that low class slobs used in reference to anyone who owns a collared shirt?

 

Example:  "Hey, did you take out the trash?" "Whoooaaaaaa, hold on there, Chief, I'm on my smoke break!"

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I thought "Chief" was a term that low class slobs used in reference to anyone who owns a collared shirt?

 

Example:  "Hey, did you take out the trash?" "Whoooaaaaaa, hold on there, Chief, I'm on my smoke break!"

Well yeah I can say I've heard it that way before too. lol

[appoo]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

He's just a nightmare to cover.  I'd love it if they could just match up Siran Neal on him and have Neal bully him out of his breaks but they've tried that before, I believe, and it didn't go too well.  Taron is just too small to deal with Kelce I'm afraid. 

I don't know how you can individually deal with Kelce. 

 

I think you have to layer coverage against him and Hill. Back in Week 5, Taron Johnson played all but 1 snap, and we should see that again. You're not going to see much man + blitz rather you're going to see Milano and Edmunds cover the middle, Johnson add another zone layer to Kelce's predicted route, while the Safety play deep to take away Hill. A lot of variance between Cover 2/4/6 - with a light sprinkling of 3. I'd be stunned if the Bills played much 1 in non short yardage situations. 

[harryS]

the Chiefs have gotten much better against 2 high safety as the season has progressed (mostly because Mahomes has become more patient and stopped turning it over).  but conservative zone is still the best way to play them.  you'll give up 30 points, yes, but if you go aggressive against that speed, you're going to give up 50.  play conservative and give Josh a chance to outduel Mahomes.

 

KC is going to rape our defense.  It's up to our offense to rape their defense just a bit worse.

[Logic]

33 minutes ago, Rampage said:

Tennessee is probably the most physical team in football. I wouldn't count them out.

I respect that opinion, and I respectfully disagree with the notion that their physicality will matter much. I don't think that either their defense OR their offense can keep with this current form of the Chiefs and Bills.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Logic