Bills win probability from penalties for/against worst in NFL this year

[Freddie's Dead]

17 hours ago, Chaos said:

Here me out.  Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time?

 

You lost me at "Here".

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

That much more than other teams?  No.  Did you even watch the Bucs game?

 

The Bills DID commit bad penalties in the Buccs game. The issue was the Buccs committed one at the worst possible time and it was not called. 

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Bills worst in league, Colts best in league.

What does this say about McDermott vs. Reich, if anything?

 

That even with officiating against the Bills, McD could get his team to the playoffs?

[Nextmanup]

Just now, Freddie's Dead said:

 

You lost me at "Here".

I thought that was part of the joke.  It was like a joke inside a joke.

 

Firs tip off is "Hear me out" and then the 3rd grade spelling error....

 

Maybe he was being serious?

 

😬

[Freddie's Dead]

16 hours ago, cDAVIS said:

The Tre interception vs the Steelers that got called back ahd to have accounted for 35% for the Steelers and against the bills

 

Bad example, that was a good call.

Just now, Nextmanup said:

I thought that was part of the joke.  It was like a joke inside a joke.

 

Firs tip off is "Hear me out" and then the 3rd grade spelling error....

 

Maybe he was being serious?

 

😬

 

That is some next-level ***** right there....

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I thought that was part of the joke.  It was like a joke inside a joke.

 

Firs tip off is "Hear me out" and then the 3rd grade spelling error....

 

Maybe he was being serious?

 

😬

 

See him out is more like it...

[Mr. WEO]

How do they calculate "win probability"?  

 

WFT is a top 3 in this category, yet they won 7 games.  Giants won 4.

 

Of the top 5 teams "aided" by penalty calls, only one team won 10 games and a division.

 

Whereas the 9 teams most adversely affected include 6 teams that won at least 10 games and 5 division winners.

 

 

[bigduke6]

i like charts,  any fan who watched every play of this Bills season knows that we've been job'd a ton by the refs this year.     the inconsistency has been all time terrible,  and thats my worst fear for the playoffs.    if we lose fair and square i have zero issues.   if we lose due to "human" ref error......imma be po'd.   ive about had it with the inconsistency and game changing calls/non calls on a weekly basis from this league.  Go Bills!!!

[78thealltimegreat]

17 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

That much more than other teams?  No.  Did you even watch the Bucs game?

This is a penalty for every team not named the Buffalo bills 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Bills worst in league, Colts best in league.

What does this say about McDermott vs. Reich, if anything?

 

 

 

That the Colts quarterbacking situation was dreadful and they tried to hide him all year with a strong running game.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

This is a penalty for every team not named the Buffalo bills 

SMH. Practically ripping off Diggs’ jersey and the ref looking right at it.  

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

How do they calculate "win probability"?  

 

WFT is a top 3 in this category, yet they won 7 games.  Giants won 4.

 

Of the top 5 teams "aided" by penalty calls, only one team won 10 games and a division.

 

Whereas the 9 teams most adversely affected include 6 teams that won at least 10 games and 5 division winners.

 

 

 

Not sure...likely it involves yardage lost on plays that were called back, TD lost on plays that are called back, adverse plays on defense when you get a penalty that converts a 3rd down for the offense, etc. 

 

Here is an in depth explanation...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/win_prob.htm

1 minute ago, Doc said:

SMH. Practically ripping off Diggs’ jersey and the ref looking right at it.  

 

That ref and the ref standing under the goalposts with the actual clear view of him getting his jersey pulled off...that was even worse...the one in the picture may have not been able to see it but the other one absolutely did.

[Dablitzkrieg]

Did the Colts a lot of good

[TPS]

My conspiratorial side says it would be interesting to look at the relationship between penalties in a game and the last minute bets on games.  I recall this post in the last game between these two, and indeed it seemed the Bills did not get hosed on penalties.

 

Edited January 15, 2022 by TPS

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not sure...likely it involves yardage lost on plays that were called back, TD lost on plays that are called back, adverse plays on defense when you get a penalty that converts a 3rd down for the offense, etc. 

 

Here is an in depth explanation...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/win_prob.htm

 

That ref and the ref standing under the goalposts with the actual clear view of him getting his jersey pulled off...that was even worse...the one in the picture may have not been able to see it but the other one absolutely did.

The Bills won games by at least 10 points. 
 

The teams most “affected” by refs effect on win probability win the most games.

 

Win probability changes throughout the game constantly.  Then a team wins.  How does a drop in win probability (due to ref calls or anything else) during a game matter to the ultimate winner?

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

The Bills won games by at least 10 points. 
 

The teams most “affected” by refs effect on win probability win the most games.

 

Win probability changes throughout the game constantly.  Then a team wins.  How does a drop in win probability (due to ref calls or anything else) during a game matter to the ultimate winner?

 

Read the formulas they use and it should explain it. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Read the formulas they use and it should explain it. 

I did.  It doesn’t answer my question re: ref calls