*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV

[MJS]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't hard to do if your team sucks. And the Bears suck. Guys who they draft late end up playing way too many games for them compared to their talent because there is not much else on that team. 

 

There is just no way at all they are a top 10 drafting team over the past 5 years. And the Bears agree. That is why their GM just got fired. 

 

As I say the rest of the list feels right. But it rewards you for guys who you take late and end up starting.... regardless of if they start because you are good or because your team is bad. This isn't Matt Milano starting. It is equivalent of Siran Neal being a full time starter for 3 or 4 years. 

 

I was looking at the 2018 onward list. Jackson was a great pick, no doubt.

Doesn't AV try to account for starters on bad teams? Don't they weight starters on good teams higher versus starters on bad teams? I thought I remembered that when I last looked at the methodology.

23 minutes ago, Rew said:

I think the challenge with evaluating this for some people is they expect that drafting well = winning and drafting poorly = losing.  Chicago may draft above average but do a poor job in FA and with coaching.  Or they may draft well at the individual level but do not draft strategically in a way that moves the team forward (the old position of need vs BPA argument).  This seems to be a good metric used in combination with other ways of evaluating a GM's performance, but not necessarily perfect in a vacuum.  

And if you don't have a good coach and don't have a good QB, you will underperform regardless of how much talent you have.

[Rew]

49 minutes ago, MJS said:

Doesn't AV try to account for starters on bad teams? Don't they weight starters on good teams higher versus starters on bad teams? I thought I remembered that when I last looked at the methodology.

And if you don't have a good coach and don't have a good QB, you will underperform regardless of how much talent you have.

Exactly.  I like and agree with the ranking on here as long as it is treated as "draft efficiency of individual picks".  As was previously stated, the team/environment specific impact on AV should be minimized in the long run leading to this being a good metric.  This leaves you with JGM's chart giving a good assesment of draft efficiency.  Ultimately, this really is more an evaluation of college scouting performance than any team building aspect of the GM job.  The definition of "drafting well" will vary to most people, but I think it's important to draft effeciently (BPA) balanced with strategically (did you put together a complete squad).  Meaning that the best drafter doesn't need to be at the top of this chart, but likely in the top half.  The other missing piece in this is that draft picks can be used as trade collateral.  It's hard to imagine an easy way of comparing the use of a 5th round pick to acquire a rookie 4 year (JAG) starter vs trading a 5th round pick for an impact veteran that you get 3 good years out of.  However, an evaluation of usage of draft capital would ideally try to capture this.

Edited January 15, 2022 by Rew

[JGMcD2]

Shameless plug as ESPN conducted a similar analysis. 

 

They were just a year and a half behind. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

[Rochesterfan]

52 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Shameless plug as ESPN conducted a similar analysis. 

 

They were just a year and a half behind. 
 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

 

It was good work when you did it and nice work by ESPN to copy you.

 

It goes to show they continue to hit picks and even when they let guys go - those players contribute elsewhere.

 

Even a “miss” like Zay Jones that everyone gripes about has gotten not only a second, but a third nice contract.

 

 

[co_springs_billsfan]

On 1/14/2022 at 1:26 PM, JGMcD2 said:

Pro Football Reference updated their approximate value numbers today. This post is an update now that we have another year of information on these draft classes.

 

I'm not going to go back through every detail of how I put all of this together - I'll link my original post detailing that if anyone is interested. 

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

A quick blurb that can orient you here if you don't want to read the entire post:

 

DrAV = AV accumulated for team that drafted the player

 

CarAV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

Image on the left is updated for 2017 - 2021 and is sorted by TOT_NETDrAV 

 

Image on the right is updated for 2018 - 2021 (For those who will shout that Beane didn't draft White, Dawkins and Milano) and is also sorted by TOT_NETDrAV. 

 

Bills would be #1 in TOT_NETCarAV for both.

 

Also love seeing New England all the way at the bottom

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/15/2022 at 1:16 PM, MJS said:

Doesn't AV try to account for starters on bad teams? Don't they weight starters on good teams higher versus starters on bad teams? I thought I remembered that when I last looked at the methodology.

 

So here's their explanation of it:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

It has a lot of links in it, but if you're really interested, you can go through and find the details. 

 

Bottom line I think it doesn't, but I could be wrong.

[Don Otreply]

Scottlaw is gonna be pissed when he reads this…, 😂

[MJS]

50 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So here's their explanation of it:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

It has a lot of links in it, but if you're really interested, you can go through and find the details. 

 

Bottom line I think it doesn't, but I could be wrong.

It does.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 1/14/2022 at 3:48 PM, GunnerBill said:

Who else had the bump this year OP, other than Josh? Presume Ed Oliver? He is very close to meeting my personal test for Brandon Beane - get me another star!

 

EDIT: I questioned Chicago pre-season and I am going to question it again. How the hell are they that high? Is it cos they have had lots of late round guys start? Cos they have started but they largely suck!

Bit of a stretch calling Ed a star. He's worked his way to contributor status.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Joe in Winslow

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Bit of a stretch calling Ed a star. He's worked his way to contributor status.

 

So I don't think he is quite "star" but he is now high level starter. He was one of the Bills' 4 or 5 best players in 2021. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I don't think he is quite "star" but he is now high level starter. He was one of the Bills' 4 or 5 best players in 2021. 

This year is key. He needs to show something great or else I don't think he should be retained

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

This year is key. He needs to show something great or else I don't think he should be retained

 

Strongly, strongly, strongly disagree. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Strongly, strongly, strongly disagree. 

Oh, I know you do. You're way way WAY higher on the guy than I am

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

Oh, I know you do. You're way way WAY higher on the guy than I am

 

I don't know what you fail to see with him. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't know what you fail to see with him. 

Not nearly the pass rusher he was sold as.

 

I expected more.