Making Nothing Out of Something Bad

[hondo in seattle]

Using a perfectly executed swim move, the defender evades the offensive lineman and comes charging like a mad bull straight toward Josh Allen.

 

Josh deftly sidesteps his opponent but soon two more defenders come steaking toward him.  As he runs toward the sideline, he attempts an impossible throw which is caught - but out of bounds.

 

Passer rating will count this as an incomplete, as will QBR.  Yet, I count it as a positive 9 yard play for Allen because a lesser QB would have been sacked for a 9 yard loss.  

 

The next play, Allen avoids a fierce rush again, breaks two tackles while scrambling for his life before being brought down for a 1 yard gain.

 

I would count that as a positive 10 yard play for Allen.  Passer rating won't take this play into account at all.  And QBR won't give him much credit for a mere 1 yard gain.

 

Right now, Passer Rating has Allen as the 16th best QB in the league.  By QBR, which includes running, Allen's 6th.  But neither system truly captures Allen's contribution to the Bills.   

 

If Allen is flushed out of the pocket 10 times and completes 5 of 10 passes for 50 yards while scrambling, both his passer rating and QBR will be hurt.  Yet he miraculously avoided 10 sacks and even got us some positive yardage on broken plays.  He ought to get credit, not have his rating go down.  

 

Making nothing out of something bad is a praiseworthy skill.  Allen does it better than anybody.  And often he transforms something bad into something good.

 

 

 

 

[Bangarang]

In summary, Josh is good. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

In summary, Josh is good. 

 

He has no accuracy.

[Bangarang]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He has no accuracy.

He makes up for it by looking irresistible in shorts 

[BringBackFergy]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He has no accuracy.

…and a poor circulatory system. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

When Josh succeeds,  he is innovative, creative and a baller.  When then go awry, he tries too much, has too much responsibility and plays hero ball.  Example was Josh's lateral to Knox versus the Texans in the playoffs when he almost turned the ball over.  This last week, the off script lateral to Knox that was a success. Overall Josh is gaining experience and his teammates know his abilities of Josh and his tendencies.

[stinky finger]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFergy said:

…and a poor circulatory system. 

 

He's HUGE once that blood starts flowing.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, inaugural balls said:

 

He's HUGE once that blood starts flowing.

 

[ToGoGo]

39 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Using a perfectly executed swim move, the defender evades the offensive lineman and comes charging like a mad bull straight toward Josh Allen.

 

Josh deftly sidesteps his opponent but soon two more defenders come steaking toward him.  As he runs toward the sideline, he attempts an impossible throw which is caught - but out of bounds.

 

Passer rating will count this as an incomplete, as will QBR.  Yet, I count it as a positive 9 yard play for Allen because a lesser QB would have been sacked for a 9 yard loss.  

 

The next play, Allen avoids a fierce rush again, breaks two tackles while scrambling for his life before being brought down for a 1 yard gain.

 

I would count that as a positive 10 yard play for Allen.  Passer rating won't take this play into account at all.  And QBR won't give him much credit for a mere 1 yard gain.

 

Right now, Passer Rating has Allen as the 16th best QB in the league.  By QBR, which includes running, Allen's 6th.  But neither system truly captures Allen's contribution to the Bills.   

 

If Allen is flushed out of the pocket 10 times and completes 5 of 10 passes for 50 yards while scrambling, both his passer rating and QBR will be hurt.  Yet he miraculously avoided 10 sacks and even got us some positive yardage on broken plays.  He ought to get credit, not have his rating go down.  

 

Making nothing out of something bad is a praiseworthy skill.  Allen does it better than anybody.  And often he transforms something bad into something good.

 

 

 

 

 

You get it.

 

Imagine a QB carousel where every QB in the league was placed on all 32 NFL teams. Josh Allen would be the best QB on almost every team.

 

Meaning...Allen would be better than Rodgers if he played in GB, better than Mahomes if he played in KC, better than Brady if he played in TB, etc. He is certainly the best QB in the NFL of any QB that would play for this Bills team.

[Orlando Buffalo]

48 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

You get it.

 

Imagine a QB carousel where every QB in the league was placed on all 32 NFL teams. Josh Allen would be the best QB on almost every team.

 

Meaning...Allen would be better than Rodgers if he played in GB, better than Mahomes if he played in KC, better than Brady if he played in TB, etc. He is certainly the best QB in the NFL of any QB that would play for this Bills team.

I had not thought about it that way, but I would argue Rodgers is the best guy for GB the way they are built, but otherwise you are likely correct, Miami would be in playoffs easily, Jets would be 500, Colts would be a1 seed.

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I had not thought about it that way, but I would argue Rodgers is the best guy for GB the way they are built, but otherwise you are likely correct, Miami would be in playoffs easily, Jets would be 500, Colts would be a1 seed.

 

I always liked that thought exercise. "If I was in YOUR situation, how would I do compared to you, and visa versa?"

 

Makes you realize how ridiculous so many of the QB arguments are. It's a team game. A QB on the #7 team with decent-good stats can be EASILY the best QB in the league. OP explained it well.

 

In other words, how far above replacement level do you play? Where replacement level considers your surroundings, not just the average stats for your position. Players are not in a vacuum, in a perfectly controlled environment.  

[WotAGuy]

He’d be a HOFer in a dome. 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

When Josh succeeds,  he is innovative, creative and a baller.  When then go awry, he tries too much, has too much responsibility and plays hero ball.  Example was Josh's lateral to Knox versus the Texans in the playoffs when he almost turned the ball over.  This last week, the off script lateral to Knox that was a success. Overall Josh is gaining experience and his teammates know his abilities of Josh and his tendencies.

I would argue it was a good both times. Stopping the clock in both situations was important 

[BuffaloBillyG]

So, build the dome?

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Using a perfectly executed swim move, the defender evades the offensive lineman and comes charging like a mad bull straight toward Josh Allen.

 

Josh deftly sidesteps his opponent but soon two more defenders come steaking toward him.  As he runs toward the sideline, he attempts an impossible throw which is caught - but out of bounds.

 

Passer rating will count this as an incomplete, as will QBR.  Yet, I count it as a positive 9 yard play for Allen because a lesser QB would have been sacked for a 9 yard loss.  

 

The next play, Allen avoids a fierce rush again, breaks two tackles while scrambling for his life before being brought down for a 1 yard gain.

 

I would count that as a positive 10 yard play for Allen.  Passer rating won't take this play into account at all.  And QBR won't give him much credit for a mere 1 yard gain.

 

Right now, Passer Rating has Allen as the 16th best QB in the league.  By QBR, which includes running, Allen's 6th.  But neither system truly captures Allen's contribution to the Bills.   

 

If Allen is flushed out of the pocket 10 times and completes 5 of 10 passes for 50 yards while scrambling, both his passer rating and QBR will be hurt.  Yet he miraculously avoided 10 sacks and even got us some positive yardage on broken plays.  He ought to get credit, not have his rating go down.  

 

Making nothing out of something bad is a praiseworthy skill.  Allen does it better than anybody.  And often he transforms something bad into something good.

 

 

 

 

 

What you've got there is an excellent argument for why people are wrong when they say things like "Because I watched the game, that's why I know Allen's much better than people think. Clearly you don't know football."

 

What you've got there is a great example of confirmation bias. You're essentially giving Allen points because you like him.

 

You assume - wrongly - that you know what other QBs would have done there. You don't. You're guessing. Other QBs in that situation escape as well. Perhaps other QBs hit the open safety valve for a 6 yard gain that Allen was rejecting because he wanted a big play. Perhaps they they throw the ball at the ground near a receiver. 

 

Do you do the same when Allen makes a play that QBR or passer rating or QB run stats call good? When Allen escapes and runs for three yards, do you say, "stats would have called that a good play, but other QBs might well have hit the outlet and their RB would have run for 7 or 8, so I call that a bad play"?

 

You are doing an excellent job of pointing out one of the problems of "the eye test."

 

 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Doc]

 

[Saxum]

5 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

 

You get it.

 

Imagine a QB carousel where every QB in the league was placed on all 32 NFL teams. Josh Allen would be the best QB on almost every team.

 

Meaning...Allen would be better than Rodgers if he played in GB, better than Mahomes if he played in KC, better than Brady if he played in TB, etc. He is certainly the best QB in the NFL of any QB that would play for this Bills team.

 

Except New England.  He would refuse to go along with the Sith Lord and he would be benched for not following script.

[HOUSE]

Dome De Dome Dome......again

[mannc]

16 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Using a perfectly executed swim move, the defender evades the offensive lineman and comes charging like a mad bull straight toward Josh Allen.

 

Josh deftly sidesteps his opponent but soon two more defenders come steaking toward him.  As he runs toward the sideline, he attempts an impossible throw which is caught - but out of bounds.

 

Passer rating will count this as an incomplete, as will QBR.  Yet, I count it as a positive 9 yard play for Allen because a lesser QB would have been sacked for a 9 yard loss.  

 

The next play, Allen avoids a fierce rush again, breaks two tackles while scrambling for his life before being brought down for a 1 yard gain.

 

I would count that as a positive 10 yard play for Allen.  Passer rating won't take this play into account at all.  And QBR won't give him much credit for a mere 1 yard gain.

 

Right now, Passer Rating has Allen as the 16th best QB in the league.  By QBR, which includes running, Allen's 6th.  But neither system truly captures Allen's contribution to the Bills.   

 

If Allen is flushed out of the pocket 10 times and completes 5 of 10 passes for 50 yards while scrambling, both his passer rating and QBR will be hurt.  Yet he miraculously avoided 10 sacks and even got us some positive yardage on broken plays.  He ought to get credit, not have his rating go down.  

 

Making nothing out of something bad is a praiseworthy skill.  Allen does it better than anybody.  And often he transforms something bad into something good.

 

 

 

 

Good example of why with Josh Allen, you need to throw stats out the window and watch the games.  Stats simply don’t capture his value or his greatness.

[finn]

What virtually every commentator on Allen misses is how bad his offensive line is. THAT element should be factored into any quarterback rating system. Has any line given up more pressures than the 2021 Bills line? Ford by himself was giving up nearly a dozen a game for awhile, which the best linemen give up across a whole season. 

 

Anyway, yes, the QB rating systems are foolish, at least the way they're interpreted, as the final judgment. They should be just one factor, or they should factor in pressures, drops and running back production. Remember Thurman kept being called "the best all-around back"? Allen is the best all-around QB.