THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Bills Move On

[Shaw66]

It’s Tuesday morning.  Where have the days gone?

 

I got up at 6:30 Saturday morning and was on the road by 7:30.  Then it was seven hours of driving in sub-freezing temperatures, freezing rain most of the day, slush on the highway, snowplows at 50 miles per hour.  Stop at the hotel, then out to Orchard Park.  I passed Schwabl’s on the way; they’re looking for a carver.  Hmm.   Maybe I could move to Buffalo and take the job. 

 

At Highmark Stadium, it was forty degrees, with a steady 20 mph wind out of the southwest. 

 

After the game, it was back to the hotel and watch the the Raiders and Chargers.  To bed after midnight.  Up the next morning, 400 more miles back home in daylight and good weather.  Then there was college National Championship game.

 

Someplace in there, I watched the Bills beat the Jets, 27-10, take their second straight AFC East title, and lock up the number 3 seed in the playoffs.   What to make of the game?  To be honest, I don’t know.  It’s all a bit of a blur, but travel is only a part of the problem.  The opponent is another part of the problem; the Jets had pretty much nothing to offer as serious competition.  Rookie QB, leaky offensive line, inconsistent defense.  Fans worried that the Jets somehow could pull off the upset, but really, how?  If the Bills couldn’t beat the Jets, playoff seeding would be the least of their worries.

 

And still, remarkably, the Jets were in position to win the game, down 3 points and with the ball in the fourth quarter.  It didn’t seem right.  Was I delirious from the drive?  Weren’t the Jets at risk of setting some kind of 3-and-out record, and now they could take the lead?  Well, not really. 

 

Truth is, the game was only half of a game.   As it happened, neither team could do much of anything on offense against the wind.  Three points were scored against the wind – a 41-yard Tyler Bass field goal.  Haack did some really ugly punting into the wind.  Everything else in the game, offensively, was with the wind.  Maybe it’s better to think of the final score as 54-20, which might have happened if each offense could have gone with the wind for four quarters.  Or 6-0, if both offenses always went against the wind.

 

So, what happened?  The Jets’ woeful offense was no match for the Bills’ statistically league-leading defense.  The Jets gained 53 yards, earned four first downs.  Okay, call it that much in two quarters; in four quarters with the wind, that would be a whopping 106 yards and eight first downs.   The Bills simply smothered the Jets in every aspect of the game.  Actually, it looked like the Jets played all four quarters into the wind. 

 

It was a field day for the defensive line.  Sacks galore (more sacks than completions), tackles for loss.  Ed Oliver looked All-Pro, Harrison Phillips was in the middle of the action play after play.  Zack Wilson rarely could find an open receiver.  The Jets were horrible.

 

The only knock on the defense was that once again it was burned for a long gain or touchdown on a quick-hitting run or short pass with no help deep.  The reality is that it’s impossible never to give up a long one; every once in a while everything falls just right for the offense.  Maybe the question should be how the defense is able to give up so few of those plays.  (One site ranks the Bills 21st in explosive run plays allowed, 2nd in explosive pass plays.)

 

For large stretches of the game, the Bills’ offense looked pretty bad.  Well, let’s say for large stretches of the game, Josh Allen looked pretty bad.  Why?  Because he was trying to throw against the wind in the second and third quarter.   Except for the field goal drive to end the half and one deep throw to Knox, Allen did very little against the wind.  He threw hard, to cut the effect of the wind, but by throwing hard, his timing was off.  Receivers consistently cut too late, or looked for the ball too late – or probably more accurately, the ball arrived too early, and off target.   Did Allen have a bad night, or was it simply impossible to deal with the wind?  I’d bet on the wind. 

 

The bigger question about all of Allen’s second- and third-quarter misfires is this:  Why were the Bills passing?  It was obvious if not immediately, then by late in the second quarter, that going against the wind was a losing proposition, and the only objective against the wind was to get ought of the quarter as soon as possible.  So, why go three and out by throwing incomplete passes?   Run the ball.  You may still go three and out, but at least the clock keeps running.  And if on some series you actually get a first down, run some more.  The Bills needlessly extended both quarters, giving the Jets extra possessions, simply by passing instead of running. 

 

And, by the way, the running game was working.  Singletary saw a couple of monster holes, and plenty of others big enough to get to the second level, and Allen was opportunistic.  For a team that was unable to mount any kind of running game most of the season (other than living dangerously with Allen), here was another late-season game where running actually was an option. 

 

With the wind, Allen was Allen.  He ran the offense, under control, not flustered, taking the necessary time outs when things got out of sync.  The touchdown throw to Diggs and the near-touchdown to Diggs were exquisite throws.  He found Diggs often, and Beasley, too, and delivered accurate balls.  Gabriel Davis was unusually ineffective, dropping a couple of balls and seeming to be off-page with Allen. 

 

The path to the Super Bowl is brutal:  New England, Kansas City, Tennessee.  But the truth is that the path for every team is brutal.  None of the Bills’ likely opponents is happy to see the Bills coming down the road.  For every team, your very best may not be enough, and less than your best invites an early exit.  

 

The formula for the Bills heading into the playoffs is clear:   Be solid at every position across the defense and be tough to score on; on offense, be dangerous and find a way to score.  For a statistically great team, the Bills don’t dominate, but they also won’t be dominated, not any more.   They will be a tough out in the playoffs, and they could make a run. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Evian]

Good stuff, but I am not sure the path to the SB goes through Kansas City and Tennessee. I think the Bengals are going to be heading to Orchard Park for the AFC Title game. 

 

[Shaw66]

That's interesting.   Bills go to KC (Steelers can't beat the Chiefs), and the Bengals win at Tennessee?   Well, yeah, I could see that. 

[Peace Frog]

Mmm...Schwabl's.  Awesome Beef on Weck.

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Peace Frog

[WhoTom]

Nice post, Shaw. Spot on regarding the passing vs running against the wind. This is one reason I have mixed feelings about Daboll's play-calling. In Josh's first couple of years, the plays were designed to gradually build his confidence, use the skills he had, and mask his deficiencies. Now that he's evolved into an elite QB, I question whether Daboll knows how to utilize him to the fullest. Some people are great at development but not so good at follow-through. It may be good for both Daboll and the Bills if he moved on to a HC position.

 

Just not Miami, please.

 

 

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

52 minutes ago, Evian said:

Good stuff, but I am not sure the path to the SB goes through Kansas City and Tennessee. I think the Bengals are going to be heading to Orchard Park for the AFC Title game. 

 

Love to see that happen, but can’t help seeing the Titans dominating that game with rushing attack. If Joe Burrow is healthy  I have no doubt they will be able to score points with their elite passing game, but will they get enough possessions?

[NC Lifelong Bills fan]

So glad to finally see your posting, and that travel back and forth to CT/Buffalo is so rough. You are my favorite poster and I was worried. Whew.

Your observations about the wind and the quality of our opponent (lack thereof) have calmed me down. People who haven’t lived in Buffalo just can’t comprehend how brutal it is just to stand up. Sadly, the Patriots are used to bad weather, too, but maybe not the penetrating gales off Lake Erie. Will you be replicating that trip again on Saturday? If so, stay safe and cheer your heart out. We can do this, and Go Bills!

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, NC Lifelong Bills fan said:

So glad to finally see your posting, and that travel back and forth to CT/Buffalo is so rough. You are my favorite poster and I was worried. Whew.

Your observations about the wind and the quality of our opponent (lack thereof) have calmed me down. People who haven’t lived in Buffalo just can’t comprehend how brutal it is just to stand up. Sadly, the Patriots are used to bad weather, too, but maybe not the penetrating gales off Lake Erie. Will you be replicating that trip again on Saturday? If so, stay safe and cheer your heart out. We can do this, and Go Bills!

Well, I was planning on driving on Saturday and going to the game on Saturday night.   A friend just told me the high will be 10 degrees, maybe down to zero.   I'm guessing my wife will pass on that, and I have to wonder if I'm really ready for it myself.   And that's sitting in club seats with radiant heat.   

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The Bills need to bring back some of the 4-wide and 5-wide looks. 

 

I think they need to have faith in Bates and Brown, and be the team they wanted to be in Week One against Pittsburgh. 

 

Our offense sputters because it is a lot of Josh Allen running around, throwing toe tap routes to the sidelines, depending on miracle catches. 

 

So I would do the following:

1. Get Knox back involved in this offense. 

2. Bench Cole Beasley and start Isaiah McKenzie. 

3. Gabe Davis remains the starter over Sanders. 

4. Utilize 4 and 5 wide sets again. 

5. Zack Moss continues to only be a breather back for Singletary, no Red Zone carries. 

 

The Bills have largely made the right changes on the offensive line and running back as the year went on, but now they have to stop their rigid hierarchy at wide receiver. Admit that Beasley and Sanders have lost steps, and get our most dynamic lineup on the field. 

[Clark Rotary]

THANK YOU SHAW FOR ANOTHER SEASON OF THESE TERRIFIC WRITE-UPS. I LOOK FORWARD TO THEM EACH WEEK AND AM NEVER DISAPPOINTED. GO BILLS! 

[CincyBillsFan]

Your points about running the clock when going into the wind are spot on.  That's how the Bills did it back in the day.  I would say that two dumb O-line penalties in the 3r quarter probably kept he Bills from scoring another 3 or 7 points going into the wind.  The one by Bates was especially bad as it wiped out a McKenzie run that gave us a first down inside the Jet's 30 yard line and his low block had no impact on the actual play.

 

As an aide I was watching the game with some younger Bills fans and they thought I was nuts obsessing over the clock when the Bills were going into the wind.  I kept saying "run the clock don't throw the ball" and they just couldn't grasp the concept. 

[LABILLBACKER]

I'm ashamed to say I finally attended my first Bills game in 60 years and it was a "religious experience". My sons and I had to cram the Falls, Duffs and early tailgating before kickoff. Very emotional seeing Highmark from Lot 4. No doubt I'll be flying out every year from here on . Got a pic with Pinto Ron and saw fans that have the same passion as I for this team. It was an absolutely indescribable experience.  Definitely my biggest bucket list check off. Nothing about the city or game disappointed. It was absolute perfection although the game was nerve wracking. Seeing them celebrate the afce championship was exhilarating.  Shaw I truly applaud amazing fans like you and so many others that go so much further than me. It finally took me a trip to the stadium to realize this. All I could say to my sons was "Is this heaven"?.....no, its Buffalo.....

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm ashamed to say I finally attended my first Bills game in 60 years and it was a "religious experience". My sons and I had to cram the Falls, Duffs and early tailgating before kickoff. Very emotional seeing Highmark from Lot 4. No doubt I'll be flying out every year from here on . Got a pic with Pinto Ron and saw fans that have the same passion as I for this team. It was an absolutely indescribable experience.  Definitely my biggest bucket list check off. Nothing about the city or game disappointed. It was absolute perfection although the game was nerve wracking. Seeing them celebrate the afce championship was exhilarating.  Shaw I truly applaud amazing fans like you and so many others that go so much further than me. It finally took me a trip to the stadium to realize this. All I could say to my sons was "Is this heaven"?.....no, its Buffalo.....

I know a guy who has social anxiety - he is very uncomfortable in large crowds.  The first time he went to a Bills game, I ask him if the crowd made him uncomfortable.  He said no.  He said seeing all those fans in Bills jerseys made him feel like he's at home.  First thing he did was go buy a McGahee jersey, so he fit in.  

 

Being with all those Bills fans is the best. 

[LeGOATski]

Great write-up l, as always.

 

In regards to not running enough in the middle quarters, I think Josh has more control over this offense than we may realize. He's throwing because he wants to throw.

 

The Bills ARE dominant. They've dominated a lot of the time this year. Top 5 offense and defense. Certain things weren't, like their red zone offense. But they figured it out in the 2nd half of the Tampa game and went on to dominate the rest of the season. I think they'll continue in the playoffs.

[LABILLBACKER]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I know a guy who has social anxiety - he is very uncomfortable in large crowds.  The first time he went to a Bills game, I ask him if the crowd made him uncomfortable.  He said no.  He said seeing all those fans in Bills jerseys made him feel like he's at home.  First thing he did was go buy a McGahee jersey, so he fit in.  

 

Being with all those Bills fans is the best. 

I've lived my entire life north of Los Angeles but when we parked and I got out of lot 4 looking at Highmark all I could say to my sons was "I'm home"..... one of the greatest (long overdue) days of my life. 

[Wyobills89]

I had that feeling when I went to my first pokes game in wyoming at 12. Being at the stadium is a euphoria you just can't replicate. Went to my first Bills game this year in Tampa and that was really amazing. Next on the list will be Highmark! And I just know being surrounded by that many bills fan will be something else! Already planning a buffalo game for next year.

[mead107]

Glad you got home ok 

 

great review as always 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

21 minutes ago, Wyobills89 said:

I had that feeling when I went to my first pokes game in wyoming at 12. Being at the stadium is a euphoria you just can't replicate. Went to my first Bills game this year in Tampa and that was really amazing. Next on the list will be Highmark! And I just know being surrounded by that many bills fan will be something else! Already planning a buffalo game for next year.

After last Sunday I'll be going every year. Why it took me this long is beyond stupid. Euphoria is the right word. 

[Aussie Joe]

Thanks Shaw as always…
 

I haven’t been impressed with the Bills Passing game these past 2 weeks…. Hope they have been playing a bit of cat and mouse against a couple of lesser teams and kept things vanila deliberately and have a few things up their sleeve now they are facing the big boys..

 

They have the team to win it  and it does seem a “soft” year looking at their competition… nothing overly scary compared to facing KC last year..even the fact that the Colts and Chargers missed the playoffs is a positive as it has allowed lesser teams in..

 

Their D should keep anybody close …. My concerns based on what I have seen this year are around dumb penalties…scoring TDs in the red zone and having consistency over 4 games playing quality teams…

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

10 hours ago, Evian said:

Good stuff, but I am not sure the path to the SB goes through Kansas City and Tennessee. I think the Bengals are going to be heading to Orchard Park for the AFC Title game. 

 

Wow I was only looking a game ahead and didn’t even consider this