Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[billsbackto81]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.  In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

He has looked off the last couple games. Weather has been less than ideaI and I  would assume Daboll has been trying to implement more plays and establish the run game for a more balanced attack in the post season. Josh will come through when he needs to let loose and let it fly. 

[teef]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

they playoffs are an entirely new season.  as of now i'm not worried what happened during the regular season.  time to start looking forward to this saturday spanky.  i've learned a lot from you posting lately.  it's nothing you've said, but rather when posters correct you, it's good football talk.  i appreciate it.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

 

Apparently that's only applicable to Lamar...

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

they playoffs are an entirely new season.  as of now i'm not worried what happened during the regular season.  time to start looking forward to this saturday spanky.  i've learned a lot from you posting lately.  it's nothing you've said, but rather when posters correct you, it's good football talk.  i appreciate it.

 

I'm in agreement with you about the playoffs being a fresh start.

 

But in the back of my mind still very concerned about Allen and where his head is at. Something is just not right with him after such a great performance in NE and we all know we are going to go as far as he takes us no matter how good this defense plays.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

he's just a disingenuous poster who either makes up or leaves out info to push this wildly negative schtick he has.

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

I'm in agreement with you about the playoffs being a fresh start.

 

But in the back of my mind still very concerned about Allen and where his head is at. Something is just not right with him after such a great performance in NE and we all know we are going to go as far as he takes us no matter how good this defense plays.

just have fun with it already.  

[Doc]

Just now, teef said:

he's just a disingenuous poster who either makes up or leaves out info to push this wildly negative schtick he has.

 

Josh must have snubbed him for an autograph.  Assuming he is even a Bills fan...

[FilthyBeast]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And Allen wasn’t bottom third against the Falcons. Do you put no value at all in what he brings in the running game? Allen was dominant on the ground in that game.

 

Yes of course, but it's not sustainable unless we only want a few more high level production type of years out of him before he goes the way of Cam Newton.

 

Also I still think every time he takes off the greater the risk of a severe injury and/or turnover that costs the game.

 

Just remember, the Allen we saw in 2020 was the guy everyone in the league was fawning over and why he got a record contract. And that guy was doing most his damage through the air.

[billsbackto81]

9 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

Falcons were playing for their post season lives before eliminated and the Jets being a division rival with a chance to ruin the Bills division title is plenty incentive. Yes, they're bottom tier but they brought some fight in those games. Plus I'm sure Daboll was trying to implement more running plays for offensive balance in the playoffs and that may have disrupted Josh's rythum a little. Plus the weather has been 💩.

[Mikie2times]

Allen is a very unique player and difficult to evaluate through conventional methods. I think his closest comps are Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Randall Cunningham, Cam Newton/Daunte Culpepper (in the best years they had), some Steve Young. If they all had DNA mixed and you sprinkled in some Brett Favre that's what we are dealing with. Allen is likely the most gifted of these guys just based on his physical stature and capability which is saying something. What is unique about all of these guys is they're mostly passing scramblers, not a scrambling passers. When it comes to QB's who are a true threat on the ground they generally have to develop more in the passing game. They aren't as dangerous in the passing game as a whole nor are they in scramble drills. Think guys like Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson or Vince Young. Allen is trying to pass. If you flush him he is still trying to pass. If you clearly give him the option to run he will gash you. He's not a guy that just dinks and dunks down the field or will generally have the ball out at the top of his drop. He's one of the all time freak athletes to play the QB position and a lot of what he generates is not by design. He is responsible for so much as it relates to how we generate points. Probably more so on an individual basis than any player in the NFL provides for his team.  

 

   

[Billsfan1972]

Face it, last year Allen was deadly accurate throwing the ball 20 yards down the seam.  This year he's been off.  I'll blame the weather, the line play and just herky jerky play calling.

 

Can all be redeemed in the next 4 games (through February 13th).

[TBBills]

4 hours ago, Motorin' said:

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

You know what would fix that...

30 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

Weren't you proven wrong in the past 2 threads you made? You just don't know when to give up.

Edited January 10, 2022 by TBBills

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, TBBills said:

You know what would fix that...

 

Mounting windmills all around the stadium in order to slow the gusts?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

35 minutes ago, TBBills said:

You know what would fix that...

Weren't you proven wrong in the past 2 threads you made? You just don't know when to give up.

yeah but now that Miami fired Flores he will be back to tell us how 2022 is the year the Dolphins take the division with a real head coach.

[eball]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

 

I don't think Miami made it (or whoever else you root for).

 

[TBBills]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

yeah but now that Miami fired Flores he will be back to tell us how 2022 is the year the Dolphins take the division with a real head coach.

I hope he does b.c he is always wrong.

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

yeah but now that Miami fired Flores he will be back to tell us how 2022 is the year the Dolphins take the division with a real head coach.

 

Did he say that before?

[CincyBillsFan]

Judas Priest.  It defies understanding how anyone who has attended a bad weather wind game in Rich Stadium would ever question how much those conditions will impact a passing game and a teams offensive efficiency.  My only conclusion is that those who are claiming that the high winds and freezing cold are just an excuse for inconsistent offense play have never actually sat out in a game in those conditions.

 

I call these people out as frauds.

 

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Judas Priest.  It defies understanding how anyone who has attended a bad weather wind game in Rich Stadium would ever question how much those conditions will impact a passing game and a teams offensive efficiency.  My only conclusion is that those who are claiming that the high winds and freezing cold are just an excuse for inconsistent offense play have never actually sat out in a game in those conditions.

 

I call these people out as frauds.

 

 

 

 

 

With the wind, Buffalo 24 and the Jets 10

Against the wind, Buffalo 3 and the Jets 0

 

I honestly think the wind will eventually become a massive advantage for this team as it was for the 90's Bills. Allen just plays worse, his competition can't even function. Think Baltimore last year, New England, Jets game...... 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

With the wind, Buffalo 24 and the Jets 10

Against the wind, Buffalo 3 and the Jets 0

 

I honestly think the wind will eventually become a massive advantage for this team as it was for the 90's Bills. Allen just plays worse, his competition can't even function. Think Baltimore last year, New England, Jets game...... 

Rather the focus on Allen who IMO is handling the wind better then any QB in Bills history McBean needs to identify a punter who can navigate these wind storms.  With better punting yesterday the Jets don't score any points.