Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

I’ve said it a million times 

 

Stats don’t tell the whole story

 

aka Stats Lie.  
 

 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I’ve said it a million times 

 

Stats don’t tell the whole story

 

aka Stats Lie.  
 

 

That's literally the point of my post.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Toyo321 said:

What bothers me is that Allen on some pass attempts is not even close to being on target.

oye. 
 

did the wind make the ball sail?

did JA17 just throw it away to avoid the sack?

 

 

The JETS brought their A game on Defense. 
 

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

That's literally the point of my post.

 

I was speaking in general terms and not to you directly 

 

It was directed to the many people here believe Stats are the END ALL 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

oye. 
 

did the wind make the ball sail?

did JA17 just throw it away to avoid the sack?

 

 

The JETS brought their A game on Defense. 
 

More than that, the Bills had 4 real possessions in the first and fourth quarters and drove down and scored on every one (except for the kneel downs at the end of the game). The only non-TD drive happened because the great TD throw to Diggs was overturned. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.  In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

 

I feel like a lot of that 3 game number is tied up in the falcons game where he had a 17 rating.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Here's a stat from Josh Allen's last 4 games:  4-0!  The only stat that matters.

That's pretty short sighted don't you think.  The Panthers, Falcons and Jets are all lousy.  

 

The passing game is going to have to be a lot better to have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.  The Bengals Chiefs and Titans are all good teams.  We will need to be at our best in all phases to beat them.  Especially the Chiefs and Titans, since we would be playing them on the road.  

[saundena]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Has Allen and the WR's connected on a bomb all season?  I mean like a 50yd+ true bomb for a TD.  I'm probably forgetting.

 

He had a couple of really long, sharp looking passes against KC earlier in the year.  Not sure if they were 50+ yards, but must have been pretty damn close to 50 at a minimum.  How long was that huge bomb to Diggs in the 1st Pats game?  The one that hit Diggs square in the hands, but he dropped.  I recall that one being like 45 yards in windy conditions.

 

That said, it seems like there should be more of these

[Dopey]

3 hours ago, Process said:

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

It's ok to say Josh didn't have a good game when he doesn't. We don't have to deflect from it like a lot of you do. Oh yeah, it's always Daboll's fault when Josh has an average to below average game. Riiiight!!!!

[Motorin']

8 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's pretty short sighted don't you think.  The Panthers, Falcons and Jets are all lousy.  

 

The passing game is going to have to be a lot better to have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.  The Bengals Chiefs and Titans are all good teams.  We will need to be at our best in all phases to beat them.  Especially the Chiefs and Titans, since we would be playing them on the road.  

 

How did Josh do passing in Tenn and KC this year? How do you think Burrow's touch passing would do in late January in OP? 

[Toyo321]

17 minutes ago, saundena said:

 

He had a couple of really long, sharp looking passes against KC earlier in the year.  Not sure if they were 50+ yards, but must have been pretty damn close to 50 at a minimum.  How long was that huge bomb to Diggs in the 1st Pats game?  The one that hit Diggs square in the hands, but he dropped.  I recall that one being like 45 yards in windy conditions.

 

That said, it seems like there should be more of these

Only two completions,   KC  61 yards and the other was 57  in the jets game.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Toyo321

[Doc]

Josh should have had at least 2 more TD passes.  I'm not sure why Diggs didn't try to hit the pylon on that one play, and Davis should have caught a pass for a TD later.

 

But that first TD pass play was insane.  He split 2 defenders, stiff-armed another to the ground and wriggled out of his grasp, and was about to be sacked but left his feet and got the pass to Diggs.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Doc

[FilthyBeast]

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

 

yeah no.

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

So happy he didn't post #'s.  Remember the last Jets game and all the adulation.....  Next game was vs. Indy.  

 

Seemed here at least people were way too excited.

 

My worry this week the defense being a little too cocky.....😉

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Couldn't find some defensive home/away splits so here are some i came up with 

 

Total yards:

Away - 315 yards per game 

Home - 235.22 yards per game

 

Passing yards:

Away - 213 yards per game

Home - 119 yards per game

 

Rushing yards

Away - 102 yards per game

Home 116.67 yards per game (with 

 

Takeaways:

17 - Away

13 - Home

 

I dont' think i need to do first downs to show the discrepancy here is pretty stark.  Teams struggled to move the ball at all in the inclement weather in buffalo - Even NE with 200+ on the ground only had 11 first downs.  The colts game was the big outlier and in that one some injuries and missed fits resulted in some big plays.  

 

Allen performed much worse at home - but other QBs who already performed poorly against buffalo's defense performed insanely bad.

 

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Like I've said in recent weeks here, Allen is good QB and is likely the franchise QB here for the foreseeable future.

 

But to put him on a pedestal as if he's truly in the upper echelon of guys who have been at the top of the league year in and year out is silly.He's got a long way to go and just because Beane decided to jump the gun and pay him an absurd contract it doesn't mean he's worth it (yet).

 

Bottom line if Allen plays like he did the last few weeks we'll be one and done and the Patriots have already proven they can beat us in Buffalo especially with Allen not playing well. People need to stop using the weather as an excuse because it's simply not valid with the live arm Allen has.

 

For this team to go anyway in the playoffs Allen has to play at or close to the level he has shown in games like KC or NE, same deal with McDermott and the coaching staff too with their gameplans in terms of being aggressive vs passive.

 

 

I guess we could always look to trade him for Tua. 😉

[FilthyBeast]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

Josh Allen is a gamer...Stats get thrown out the window.

 

Against better teams the last few weeks we lose and likely lose big. And considering how lopsided the Jets stats were they had no business being within 3 points in the 4th quarter.

 

People can continue to dismiss Allen's struggles to fit their rah rah, idol worship type agenda but if don't go very far in the playoffs he's likely going to be the main reason why.

[teef]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

Against better teams the last few weeks we lose and likely lose big. And considering how lopsided the Jets stats were they had no business being within 3 points in the 4th quarter.

 

People can continue to dismiss Allen's struggles to fit their rah rah, idol worship type agenda but if don't go very far in the playoffs he's likely going to be the main reason why.

you accuse people of posting strictly on conjecture and opinion, yet here you are.  and idol worship?  how is therapy going for you?

[FilthyBeast]

Just now, teef said:

you accuse people of posting strictly on conjecture and opinion, yet here you are.  and idol worship?  how is therapy going for you?

 

Falcons and Jets are among the worst defenses in the league and all have metrics ranking near or dead last in most cases.

 

I know fans are quick to just look at the positives as the W's and clinching the division, but to think we are going to stand a chance in the playoffs with Allen playing like a bottom 3rd NFL QB is truly amusing.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Against better teams the last few weeks we lose and likely lose big. And considering how lopsided the Jets stats were they had no business being within 3 points in the 4th quarter.

 

People can continue to dismiss Allen's struggles to fit their rah rah, idol worship type agenda but if don't go very far in the playoffs he's likely going to be the main reason why.

We won all those games by 2+ touchdowns. Against better teams those are not automatic losses. They are just closer one score games. Which is what you would expect in the NFL.