Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Process said:

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

He wasn’t even a top 3 qb in the afc according to the people that voted Tremaine into the pro bowl in previous seasons

[Sweats]

They should have a stat for how much a guy puts his team on his back and carries them.

[zow2]

Has Allen and the WR's connected on a bomb all season?  I mean like a 50yd+ true bomb for a TD.  I'm probably forgetting.

[NewEra]

57 minutes ago, Logic said:

On the one hand, I think Allen will always be a guy who has weird weeks where his number stink but the Bills win. He's truly one of those "do whatever it takes" guys, and sometimes what it takes is gonna look like two INTs but a bunch of clutch runs, and ultimately a Bills victory.

On the other hand, it's hard to deny that for long stretches of the past two weeks, the Bills offense has gone dormant. During those stretches, Allen has been inaccurate and out of rhythm.

What's concerning is that this happened against bad defenses the past two weeks. Spare me the "bad weather" nonsense. Yesterday, there were far too many 3-and-outs, considering the Bills were going up against the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL. Bad weather or not, there's no excuse for that. They don't score on every drive? Fine. But at least put some drives together.

I found yesterday and the week before concerning for the offense. Honestly, the offense has been Jekyll and Hyde for MUCH of this season. When it's on, it's really on, and you can see that it has the potential to be unstoppable -- the best offense in the league. But then other times, they can't BUY a first down or cash in a red zone trip. It's maddening and confusing, and they'd better hope that the Good Offense shows up next week against Belichick's defense.

Our DL bailed Josh out yesterday.  

[Xwnyer]

One troubling thing I am seeing is pinpoint precision first couple drives than ball is flying over heads and through hands of receivers 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, McBean said:

This is dumb.

 

 

It's not "this"...........it's more of a you thing.

 

dave was simply pointing out some unusual numbers.

 

Maybe you feel like you gotta' stand up for Josh now since you had very negative emotions on this board about the Bills drafting him but you can never make up for that,  you'll always be the guy that hated the Josh Allen pick. 

 

He's great..........but sh*t weather and other factors have not made it easy to pile up stats this year.  

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Our DL bailed Josh out yesterday.  

Yeah. I can't disagree.

Had our defense not been so elite, and had they not been going against such an inept opponent, it's highly likely that the game wouldn't have gone in the Bills' favor. They were just too ineffective for far too long on offense.

The long stretches of bad offense this season have been absolutely confusing and infuriating. Our offensive line has finally come together, our receivers are mostly healthy, even our run game has improved. And yet....for long stretches, we're the Keystone Cops.

I don't know where to point the finger, but I can't pretend that Allen is totally exempt from blame.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yeah. I can't disagree.

Had our defense not been so elite, and had they not been going against such an inept opponent, it's highly likely that the game wouldn't have gone in the Bills' favor. They were just too ineffective for far too long on offense.

The long stretches of bad offense this season have been absolutely confusing and infuriating. Our offensive line has finally come together, our receivers are mostly healthy, even our run game has improved. And yet....for long stretches, we're the Keystone Cops.

I don't know where to point the finger, but I can't pretend that Allen is totally exempt from blame.

I honestly think that Wilson held the ball too long in many cases because he was afraid to throw it into the wind and risk a pick. Which just goes to show how much weather affects these games. The weather yesterday was truly terrible for offenses going into the wind. Hyde said afterward that it was insane.  Of the 37 points scored yesterday, 34 were scored with the wind at the offense's back. The only time a team scored going into the wind was because Allen marched them down the field (mostly throwing the ball because he's Josh Allen) on an 81 yard drive at the end of the first half. In the first and fourth quarters, the Bills scored 24 points and Allen was 12-15 with two TDs. Take away the one TD throw by Wilson going with the wind in the second quarter, and the Jets had negative 40 passing yards.

Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride

[BaaadThingsMan]

How many drops have there been the last 3 weeks?

 

Seems like alot to me, I'm betting without looking it up its over 10-15 that hit receivers hands or were otherwise catchable but weren't. 

 

Elements or whatever factors it's not all on the QB.

Davis was horrible yesterday really

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Our DL bailed Josh out yesterday.  

 

Well.......Wilson and the wind were just as much of a factor as the Bills pass rush.

 

I had the distinct feeling that Daboll was determined to just have Josh throw from the pocket all game to avoid injury.     That's not what's been working in this weather.  Ended up being the least physical abuse he's taken in a game in months.   Mission accomplished.

 

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

How many drops have there been the last 3 weeks?

 

Seems like alot to me, I'm betting without looking it up its over 10-15 that hit receivers hands or were otherwise catchable but weren't. 

 

Elements or whatever factors it's not all on the QB.

Davis was horrible yesterday really

Eh...those drops are at least somewhat on the QB, IMO.

He can't throw Howitzer-Bazooka piss missiles at 150 MPH when receivers' hands are little frozen blocks of ice. He has to learn to take a little power out of those throws and use some touch. Situational/weather awareness.

[Toyo321]

What bothers me is that Allen on some pass attempts is not even close to being on target.  On deep balls this year he has over thrown so many balls that it is head scratching.  I mean he is not even close to giving the intended receiver a shot at the catch.  There is no reason you miss a receiver by 10 yards unless the wind is blowing 35 mph.  As much as I hate to say it he really has lost his deep ball throwing capability.  He was making these throws last year but not so this year.  He has  missed his receivers behind them or over thrown them so many time this year I have lost count, and in the last 3 games it still continues.  Really all year long.  Why I don't know.  The O Line has had issues with protection in past games and he has been running for his life.   He has had good pockets to throw from in the past 3 games and he is still making these errant throws.  Yes some are wind related but not all have been.

 

I don't expect him to make every pass, but you cant keep missing your target on deep attempts. When was the last time he has completed a pass for over 45-50 yards in the air.  This year this area of his passing game has been non existent.

 

I just hope that this is just a issue of maybe weather and just typical bad play calling, but this is something that will hurt us down the stretch.

 

He needs to get his accuracy back in check,  to where it was last year.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Toyo321

[ngbills]

No need to justify anything. Allen has been off and we are still in the playoffs with a legit chance to win it all. Allen has the insurance policy of being an elite athlete. When his passing game is off he can turn into an athlete. That cannot be his go to for the next 15 years but at this point in his career he can. He still is a work in progress and will improve. I think the shoddy OL play early got him into some bad habits that an offseason he can work out. 

[dave mcbride]

28 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

What bothers me is that Allen on some pass attempts is not even close to being on target.  On deep balls this year he has over thrown so many balls that it is head scratching.  I mean he is not even close to giving the intended receiver a shot at the catch.  There is no reason you miss a receiver by 10 yards unless the wind is blowing 35 mph.  As much as I hate to say it he really has lost his deep ball throwing capability.  He was making these throws last year but not so this year.  He has  missed his receivers behind them or over thrown them so many time this year I have lost count, and in the last 3 games it still continues.  Really all year long.  Why I don't know.  The O Line has had issues with protection in past games and he has been running for his life.   He has had good pockets to throw from in the past 3 games and he is still making these errant throws.  Yes some are wind related but not all have been.

 

I don't expect him to make every pass, but you cant keep missing your target on deep attempts. When was the last time he has completed a pass for over 45-50 yards in the air.  This year this area of his passing game has been non existent.

 

I just hope that this is just a issue of maybe weather and just typical bad play calling, but this is something that will hurt us down the stretch.

 

He needs to get his accuracy back in check,  to where it was last year.

He had the same issue last year on deep throws. His longtime issue is that he puts very little arc on his deep throws (his arm strength is that strong and he doesn't really need to), which means they need to be pinpoint because otherwise receivers don't have time to adjust to the ball. In the type of weather he's been playing in though, throwing Russell Wilson rainbows that receivers can adjust to is simply a non-starter given how much the wind will either hold it up or push it forward if it's high up there. He threw an absolute dime to Diggs on a ball that went probably 35 yards in the air yesterday but Diggs was pushed out by Echols and never got the second foot down. It was still a perfect throw, however. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride

[TheBrownBear]

Well, that's mostly because of one horrendous statistical game against the Falcons.  He was fine yesterday and great against the Pats.  It's not like some 3 game "trend."

[JESSEFEFFER]

Any QB metrics that don't grade on a curve for weather conditions are inherently biased.  As far as I know, none even attempt to do so.  Those that say "It's Buffalo--what do you expect?" I say most home games have been weekly outliers.  Nicer days before or after the game and worse on gamedays.  Deep shots into or with the wind come with a built in extra degree of variance.  Touch passes are more susceptible to wind effects, so that's why Josh is throwing rockets.  With the colder weather, his passes are even more difficult to catch so everyone is wanting Josh to power down.  Also, a slower ball = slower release = more time for pass rushers and defenders to react.  Most every QB in the NFL is no match for the Bills defense + tough weather.  Our QB can still make plays and is willing to try, so embrace it.

Edited January 10, 2022 by JESSEFEFFER

[Cheektowaga Chad]

When the bills play lesser opponents or the game isn't as important it seems allen stays in the pocket and doesn't take off running if he sees an opportunity. More likely to throw the ball away rather than take a hit for 5 or 6 yards 

 

I think teams especially the weaker teams picked up on his reluctance to improvise against them and its seen in his passer rating 

 

Because every game once he started moving/running things opened back up and started making completions again

 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Well, that's mostly because of one horrendous statistical game against the Falcons.  He was fine yesterday and great against the Pats.  It's not like some 3 game "trend."

I included three games (all in sequence) so it didn't seem like I was cherry picking the bad stuff. Even against the Pats he only averaged 6.7 ypa. That's way below his average last year. Yesterday, he had a 53 percent completion rate and averaged 5.3 ypa. That's objectively bad, but when you factor in the weather you see things differently. He made some bad throws yesterday, but overall had a positive performance when viewed in its totality.   

[Bruce Smith]

2 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Here's a stat from Josh Allen's last 4 games:  4-0!  The only stat that matters.

I think people forget it is about Wins and losses.  Not fantasy stats.  

[Evian]

Josh Allen only gets judged by 1 stat this time of year. Wins and Losses. Everything else is irrelevant.