Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[WNYFAN1]

Check this out from Fivethirtyeight:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-buffalo-bills-got-the-least-bang-for-their-schedules-buck-this-season/

 

This may explain some of that "high disparity" mentioned by the op.

[BuffaloBill]

All that matters from this point out is how many more W’s he collects with the team.  

 

Dabol could help in these weather games with more outlet options (read take the check downs - which JA seems to be loathe to do).

[Big Turk]

27 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Doesn't count. He's a QB, so his rushing stats don't count... Plus the Bills can't run the ball...

 

2,100 rushing yards later... The Bills still can't run the ball. 

 

Although they are 6th in the NFL in rushing...amazing how facts never seem to get in the way of people's views.

[WhoTom]

25 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Plus the Bills can't run the ball...

 

One of the announcers yesterday said that the Bills' offense is #1 in the league on play-action passes. Interesting stat, given that our running game (until recently, and not counting Josh's runs) has been pretty mediocre.

 

 

[Logic]

On the one hand, I think Allen will always be a guy who has weird weeks where his number stink but the Bills win. He's truly one of those "do whatever it takes" guys, and sometimes what it takes is gonna look like two INTs but a bunch of clutch runs, and ultimately a Bills victory.

On the other hand, it's hard to deny that for long stretches of the past two weeks, the Bills offense has gone dormant. During those stretches, Allen has been inaccurate and out of rhythm.

What's concerning is that this happened against bad defenses the past two weeks. Spare me the "bad weather" nonsense. Yesterday, there were far too many 3-and-outs, considering the Bills were going up against the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL. Bad weather or not, there's no excuse for that. They don't score on every drive? Fine. But at least put some drives together.

I found yesterday and the week before concerning for the offense. Honestly, the offense has been Jekyll and Hyde for MUCH of this season. When it's on, it's really on, and you can see that it has the potential to be unstoppable -- the best offense in the league. But then other times, they can't BUY a first down or cash in a red zone trip. It's maddening and confusing, and they'd better hope that the Good Offense shows up next week against Belichick's defense.

[BarleyNY]

27 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective.

No, no, no.  Stats only get thrown out if they’re unfavorable.  Sometimes you have to dig just deep enough and look at them just the right way for them to finally become beautifully favorable. 

[Johnnycage46]

Here's a stat...3-0.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Johnnycage46 said:

Here's a stat...3-0.

One could argue that it's a team game and the league's best defense had at least something do with that 3-0 record. 

[Nextmanup]

32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective.

I give you high marks for trying, but with this crowd what you're doing is like trying to nail Jello to a tree.

 

Lots of folks are very vocal about how they find analytics or any type of intelligent analysis useless.

 

Maybe we just didn't want those games badly enough to win by more?

 

Perhaps the team wasn't tough enough to win by more!

 

🤫
 

 

 

 

 

[Motorin']

8 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

One of the announcers yesterday said that the Bills' offense is #1 in the league on play-action passes. Interesting stat, given that our running game (until recently, and not counting Josh's runs) has been pretty mediocre.

 

 

 

The run game doesn't have to be good to make play action effective. It just has to exist. 

[WotAGuy]

He’ll figure it out. When they are focused in and in need of a drive, they have been able to turn it on. Those three lousy statistical games all included stretches when Allen got focused and got drives when needed. 
 

Herbert played the same way last night. Early on they were really off their game. But that 4th quarter Herbert was amazing. 
 

Consistency comes with more experience and maturity. 

[Einstein]

29 minutes ago, Process said:

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

 

Allen has not been playing like a Top 3 QB recently.

 

 

[thenorthremembers]

For all the circus catches Gabe Davis makes his catch ratio is exactly what Dawson Knox's was when he was getting killed on this board.   Its not surprising to me that Josh's percentage has went down later in the season, especially when you have a #2 wideout going 3 for 14 on targets. 

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

Any chance the ankle injury from the Bucs game affects his throwing but not running?  The timing coincides...

[ndirish1978]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4243537/gabriel-davis

 

Davis contributed to the low completion percentage yesterday. Targeted 14 times and only THREE receptions. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 8.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.  In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

I think Josh still needs to be able to run the ball to have his overall game be effective. After the toe injury it seems like his running game has been more of "in case of emergency" rather than an integral part of the offensive game plan. Josh is still growing as a qb, so hopefully the poor games will drive him to improve parts of his game (check downs, quicker releasing of the ball) moving forward.

 

Hopefully the qb runs will be a little bigger part of the game plan in the playoffs.

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

OL seems to be playing better of late as well.  

 

I may be off here (haven't bothered to check if I'm right) but the holding penalties seem way down lately. I don't recall seeing many. They've killed a lot of drives earlier in the year

[MrSarcasm]

These boards really do gauge the fans temperature.  I suppose it depends which way the wind blows, weather Allen does well or not. No17 just needs to snow when to throw it and snow when to run it.

 

But I really don't snow why his last few games have been odd. I guess we will just have to weather the storm.

 

I guess we should put a lid on it then.

[McBean]

This is dumb.

 

Allen in LA or Tampa is the MVP every year. Weather has a huge impact on stats. Come on now.

[CSBill]

11 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

 

I may be off here (haven't bothered to check if I'm right) but the holding penalties seem way down lately. I don't recall seeing many. They've killed a lot of drives earlier in the year

I think you’re correct. 
 

There was one big one yesterday in the 3rd quarter. But it feels like it has gotten better these last few games.