Josh Allen's very strange stats in the final three games of the season

[dave mcbride]

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 7.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall, with 7 TDs and 3 TOs (again no fumbles and no lost yardage). 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating for the entire season was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.  In these last three games, opponents' team pass rating is 50.6.

Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride

[Motorin']

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

[ganesh]

Josh Allen is a gamer...Stats get thrown out the window.

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

More than that - if you factor his rushing plays into his performance as a QB (see above; I edited it), the numbers go way up. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by dave mcbride

[Big Turk]

Allen is much better with the wind as evidenced yesterday by being 12/15 for 2 TDs with the wind and 12/30 against it. Not really a surprise, Allen has to throw lasers to try and cut through it and the receivers have dropped their fair share as well.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Josh Allen is a gamer...Stats get thrown out the window.

They don't, though -- you just have to look at all of the stats in combination and with a different perspective.

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

More than that - if you treat his rushing plays (see above; I edited it), the numbers go way up. 

 

Doesn't count. He's a QB, so his rushing stats don't count... Plus the Bills can't run the ball...

 

2,100 rushing yards later... The Bills still can't run the ball. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Motorin'

[RyanC883]

OL seems to be playing better of late as well.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

So you're saying Josh Allen's passer rating goes down in late season bad weather games, but the opponent's rating goes down like 3 or 4 times more?

 

 

 

The weather wasn’t THAT bad the last few weeks, the passing offense was just uncharacteristically ‘off.’

[34-78-83]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Over the final three games, Allen's passing numbers were terrible, statistically speaking:

 

73.9 passer rating

5.7 ypa

53.4% completion rate

 

Yet in those three games he also was not sacked a single time and ran for 214 yards on 27 non-kneel down carries -- good for 71.3 ypg and an 8.9 rushing ypa (plus 2 rushing TDs and no fumbles). The Bills won all of these games by at least 12 points. 

 

Indeed, if you treat his rushing plays simply as completed pass plays at 7.9 ypa, his rating goes up to 86.8 -- 62% completion rate and 6.1 ypa overall. 

 

Statistically, he has been extremely hard to judge this season - a true outlier. In terms of advanced passing stats, he was literally league average: 100 using PFR's advanced passing stat system, in which is 100 is average. Yet he led the league in rushing ypa and was sacked at a rate of 3.9 percent, which is really low given what the sack rate would have been for practically any other QB in the league playing behind this line.

 

The other notable stat: The Bills' team passer rating was 91.3 and the opponent passer rating against our D was 65.3 -- a ridiculously high disparity of 26 points.   

Dave, speaking to the "terrible #'s", note the numbers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of yesterday's game. That's when the offense was headed into a 25-35 mph wind. This is a theme for the entire season this year. We've had ridiculous wind and/or weather in all these games this season at home : PIT, WAS, HOU, IND, NE, ATL, NYJ. I attended all but the HOU game and can attest! lol.

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The weather wasn’t THAT bad the last few weeks, the passing offense was just uncharacteristically ‘off.’

 

Whatever you say Andy.

[Process]

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Dave, speaking to the "terrible #'s", note the numbers especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of yesterday's game. That's when the offense was headed into a 25-35 mph wind. This is a theme for the entire season this year. We've had ridiculous wind and/or weather in all these games this season at home : PIT, WAS, HOU, IND, NE, ATL, NYJ. I attended all but the HOU game and can attest! lol.

Oh, I get it, but that stuff doesn't show up in any statistical assessment even though you and I both know it matters. 

 

Opponents' collective team passer rating in these same three games: 50.6. It's what I've been saying all along - the Bills passer rating differential has been 20+ in virtually every scenario you can concoct in long stretches of games. It doesn't really vary much.

8 minutes ago, Process said:

The Bills went 3-0 and Allen is a top 3 QB in the league. Are we going to nitpick his stats after every game? Could care less.

 

Hopefully next year we have a new OC and more weapons around him. Right now he is doing it all himself. He is not going to light the world on fire every game.

I think you're kind of missing my point ...

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

20 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The weather wasn’t THAT bad the last few weeks, the passing offense was just uncharacteristically ‘off.’

Falcons game didn’t look that bad but yesterday driving into the wind looked very tough…Zach Wilson doesn’t have a weak arm by any means and he threw some very wobbly passes.  We were darn near perfect when we were driving with the wind so it’s pretty hard to say the wind wasn’t a big factor 

[msw2112]

Here's a stat from Josh Allen's last 4 games:  4-0!  The only stat that matters.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Falcons game didn’t look that bad but yesterday driving into the wind looked very tough…Zach Wilson doesn’t have a weak arm by any means and he threw some very wobbly passes.  We were darn near perfect when we were driving with the wind so it’s pretty hard to say the wind wasn’t a big factor 

The Falcons game was very cold, which led to a bunch of drops. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Oh, I get it, but that stuff doesn't show up in any statistical assessment even though you and I both know it matters. 

 

Opponents' collective team passer rating in these same three games: 50.6. It's what I've been saying all along - the Bills passer rating differential has been 20+ in virtually every scenario you can concoct in long stretches of games. It doesn't really vary much.

I think you're kind of missing my point ...

Haha I think you guys are saying the same thing but still debating somehow 😃

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I am here because I figured this would soon turn into a “build a dome” thread.

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

The Falcons game was very cold, which led to a bunch of drops. 

very slippery field as well ( and they only plowed the hashes and numbers)

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Falcons game didn’t look that bad but yesterday driving into the wind looked very tough…Zach Wilson doesn’t have a weak arm by any means and he threw some very wobbly passes.  We were darn near perfect when we were driving with the wind so it’s pretty hard to say the wind wasn’t a big factor 

That one throw down the hashes to Davis that basically defied the law of physics was pretty much all the evidence one needs of the wind effect.