Buffalo vs New England Wildcard Game: 8:15 PM Saturday Night

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I keep doing math on my calculator to see if I can do it again.  In the last two months, Christmas, my GF birthday, back surgery and I was just in Buffalo last week….

 

But its the effing playoffs.

Just ask @Gugnywhere the Kiko car is parked...I'm sure they have a ticket to spare

Edited January 11, 2022 by Sherlock Holmes

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 1/9/2022 at 9:46 PM, BuffBillsForLife said:

While I'm not looking forward to round 3 vs Belicheck, I'd rather play the Pats with Mac Jones than the Chargers with Herbert.  Stop Harris from trampling us and we should be in a good spot.

Much rather face the chargers secondary that made carr look elite, but agreed Herbert makes some excellent throws.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

 

A few observatons:

• There is only one catagory where the Pats are better than the Bills (Penalties)
• The Bills are actually a better running team than the Pats .... will never hear that from the talking-heads
• Many categories are close, but the two biggest disparities are Average Yards Per Game and Opp. Average Rushing Yards Per Game - Those are also two of the most important categoiries - Again, about the Talking-Heads, should not the question be: "Can the Pats slow down the BIlls rushing attack?"
• The differences are not huge in any area, but the total is clearly to the Bills advantage.

 

Pats seem to destroy bad teams and consistently play pretty bad against good ones which mucks up their stats a bit.  there doesn’t seem to be much of a correlation between how badly you beat bad teams and how you perform against good teams.  The only quality win they had all season was against us where the once in a season weather event made the results pretty unpredictable 

[PromoTheRobot]

Just an FYI, the resale market for Bills playoff tickets is dropping. Likely due to the weather and Pats fans really not having a lot of faith in their squad. Tickets can be had for under $80. Price floor was $98 just yesterday. 

[eball]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

There’s really no need to be condescending.  I’m very aware of how point spreads are determined and markers that trigger movement.  As of right now 53% of the bets and 58% of the money is on Buffalo, which means there is a 5% money edge on the Bills at -4 (i.e., the bigger bets or “sharps” are on the Bills).  Why hasn’t the line moved?  Could be a number of reasons.

 

The game to jump on right now is Philly getting 8.5 at Tampa.

 

 

FYI, the money edge on Buffalo is now 8%.  64% of tickets and 72% of the money is on the Bills.  

[harryS]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Are you sure it actually moved down there and didn’t open at -3.5.? Everywhere I’ve looked it’s stayed the same and a random Sportsbook even had us at -6.5.  Probably won’t move much until we get some injury reports…Barmore being out would be huge maybe it moved a little down when they announced his injury wasn’t ligament damage 

 

which one?  notice that I'm specific in my posts, e.g. Draft King has it as 3.5 right now.

 

The line was widely 4.5 yesterday and has moved down to 4.

 

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

There’s really no need to be condescending.  I’m very aware of how point spreads are determined and markers that trigger movement.  As of right now 53% of the bets and 58% of the money is on Buffalo, which means there is a 5% money edge on the Bills at -4 (i.e., the bigger bets or “sharps” are on the Bills).  Why hasn’t the line moved?  Could be a number of reasons.

 

 

The line HAS moved, opposite of the direction you predicted. :-)

 

Sometimes explanation sounds like condescension, and like I said, maybe we should just stick to talking football.  But if you or others are going to talk point spread, at least give good information.  For example, why would you think the 53% vs 58% you mentioned would move the line?  That difference isn't very large, but most importantly, you seem to assume that it has to be sharp action accounting for the difference.  All it takes is one rich whale (for example, someone like Floyd Weather) to place a big bet and skew those numbers, especially since the difference is so small, and especially since the limits are low early in the week.  Big bettors do NOT have to be sharp.  Very often they are whales, especially in high-profile games like NFL playoff games.

 

 

[Logic]

Hearing the national coverage of this game has me feeling like I'm taking crazy pills! So many one-sided arguments, contradictions, or flat out ignoring of facts and stats. 

1. I keep hearing that the Bills are "too one-dimensional". Stop Allen and you stop the Bills. First of all, the Patriots are just as one-dimensional. Stop their run game and you stop their offense. Second, why do we only hear the "too one-dimensional" argument about the Bills, but not about other great passing offenses? Why doesn't anyone ever point out that the Chiefs and Ravens are too dependent upon Mahomes and Jackson? Not only that, but the whole "shut down the QB and you stop the offense" argument leaves out one important fact: It's REALLY DIFFICULT to stop the QB. That's what makes him a great QB! If it were so easy, a lot more teams would do it!

2. I keep hearing that the Patriots can run and stop the run better than the Bills. Since week 11, the Patriots have the third WORST run defense in the NFL, while the Bills have the 4th BEST rushing offense. What's that you say? A lot of the Bills' rushing success is due to Allen scrambling? Oh, well in that case, take those yards off the board. They don't count. Call Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson and tell them none of their rushing yards count, either. Rushing yards are rushing yards, and the Bills are CURRENTLY statistically a top five rushing team and the Patriots are CURRENTLY statistically a bottom five rush defense. Those are the facts.

3. I don't seem to hear a damned thing from the media about how good the Bills defense is. The tenor of the discussion always tends to be "how will Allen and the Bills offense handle the elite Patriots defense?". Well, this just in: the Bills have the number one defense in yards allowed AND points allowed. They're the best defense in the league. Yet I never seem to hear "how will Mac Jones fare against the best pass defense in the league?".

I normally roll my eyes at complaints about national media coverage, but it's hard to watch this stuff and not get at least a little irritated after a while. The slurping of the Patriots and lack of respect for or mention of the Bills' strengths gets really old after a while. Watching it, you'd think the Pats were the division champs, we were the wild card team, and the Pats are heavily favored. Crazy.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Logic

[Son of a K-Gun]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

Hearing the national coverage of this game has me feeling like I'm taking crazy pills! So many one-sided arguments, contradictions, or flat out ignoring of facts and stats. 

1. I keep hearing that the Bills are "too one-dimensional". Stop Allen and you stop the Bills. First of all, the Patriots are just as one-dimensional. Stop their run game and you stop their offense. Second, why do we only hear the "too one-dimensional" argument about the Bills, but not about other great passing offenses? Why doesn't anyone ever point out that the Chiefs and Ravens are too dependent upon Mahomes and Jackson? Not only that, but the whole "shut down the QB and you stop the offense" argument leaves out one important fact: It's REALLY DIFFICULT to stop the QB. That's what makes him a great QB! If it were so easy, a lot more teams would do it!

2. I keep hearing that the Patriots can run and stop the run better than the Bills. Since week 11, the Patriots have the third WORST run defense in the NFL, while the Bills have the 4th BEST rushing offense. What's that you say? A lot of the Bills' rushing success is due to Allen scrambling? Oh, well in that case, take those yards off the board. They don't count. Call Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson and tell them none of their rushing yards count, either. Rushing yards are rushing yards, and the Bills are CURRENTLY statistically a top five rushing team and the Patriots are CURRENTLY statistically a bottom five rush defense. Those are the facts.

3. I don't seem to hear a damned thing from the media about how good the Bills defense is. The tenor of the discussion always tends to be "how will Allen and the Bills offense handle the elite Patriots defense?". Well, this just in: the Bills have the number one defense in yards allowed AND points allowed. They're the best defense in the league. Yet I never seem to hear "how will Mac Jones fare against the best pass defense in the league?".

I normally roll my eyes at complaints about national media coverage, but it's hard to watch this stuff and not get at least a little irritated after a while. The slurping of the Patriots and lack of respect for or mention of the Bills' strengths gets really old after a while. Watching it, you'd think the Pats were the division champs, we were the wild card team, and the Pats are heavily favored. Crazy.

There goes @Logic using logic...

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

Well said Logic!  It is really baffling that more isn't being made of the various offensive and defensive rankings for the Bills.  Maybe I am off base, but it seems like it is extremely rare to have a team so dominant in so many areas!  (at least as far as rankings go)

[Warcodered]

 

[IronyAbounds]

I was at the last Buffalo - NE playoff game (although back then it was Boston, not NE), and the conditions were very close to those predicted for Saturday (I was a kid so it didn't really bother me). Let's hope the result is different Saturday then it was way back then.

[BillnutinHouston]

27 minutes ago, Logic said:

Hearing the national coverage of this game has me feeling like I'm taking crazy pills! So many one-sided arguments, contradictions, or flat out ignoring of facts and stats. 

1. I keep hearing that the Bills are "too one-dimensional". Stop Allen and you stop the Bills. First of all, the Patriots are just as one-dimensional. Stop their run game and you stop their offense. Second, why do we only hear the "too one-dimensional" argument about the Bills, but not about other great passing offenses? Why doesn't anyone ever point out that the Chiefs and Ravens are too dependent upon Mahomes and Jackson? Not only that, but the whole "shut down the QB and you stop the offense" argument leaves out one important fact: It's REALLY DIFFICULT to stop the QB. That's what makes him a great QB! If it were so easy, a lot more teams would do it!

2. I keep hearing that the Patriots can run and stop the run better than the Bills. Since week 11, the Patriots have the third WORST run defense in the NFL, while the Bills have the 4th BEST rushing offense. What's that you say? A lot of the Bills' rushing success is due to Allen scrambling? Oh, well in that case, take those yards off the board. They don't count. Call Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson and tell them none of their rushing yards count, either. Rushing yards are rushing yards, and the Bills are CURRENTLY statistically a top five rushing team and the Patriots are CURRENTLY statistically a bottom five rush defense. Those are the facts.

3. I don't seem to hear a damned thing from the media about how good the Bills defense is. The tenor of the discussion always tends to be "how will Allen and the Bills offense handle the elite Patriots defense?". Well, this just in: the Bills have the number one defense in yards allowed AND points allowed. They're the best defense in the league. Yet I never seem to hear "how will Mac Jones fare against the best pass defense in the league?".

I normally roll my eyes at complaints about national media coverage, but it's hard to watch this stuff and not get at least a little irritated after a while. The slurping of the Patriots and lack of respect for or mention of the Bills' strengths gets really old after a while. Watching it, you'd think the Pats were the division champs, we were the wild card team, and the Pats are heavily favored. Crazy.

 

This works in our favor.  McD seems to be proficient at leveraging media slights into player motivation. 

 

[MiltonWaddams]

44 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Just an FYI, the resale market for Bills playoff tickets is dropping. Likely due to the weather and Pats fans really not having a lot of faith in their squad. Tickets can be had for under $80. Price floor was $98 just yesterday. 

Dammit. It’s tough being on the West Coast and hearing that. Playoff tickets for those Seahawks (closest team geographically to me) were just astronomical. Not that I was really interested in going, but playoff football is playoff football. Hopefully those tickets sell out and the fans show out.

[PromoTheRobot]

5 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Dammit. It’s tough being on the West Coast and hearing that. Playoff tickets for those Seahawks (closest team geographically to me) were just astronomical. Not that I was really interested in going, but playoff football is playoff football. Hopefully those tickets sell out and the fans show out.

 

The silver lining is few if any Patriots fans there.  

 

https://www.ticketmaster.com/afc-wild-card-playoffs-bills-v-orchard-park-new-york-01-15-2022/event/00005A8799BB1DEC

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

Although I'm not a fan of playing a Division rival for a 3rd time in the playoffs and at first I preferred the Chargers due to having to come across the country along with them playing in Buffalo weather oppose to the nice weather they're used to playing in, but it didn't take long for me to change my thoughts on that....

 

I kinda like the match up against Pats with the rookie QB in his very 1st playoff appearance a little better I believe. Also as long as we see the same running game scheme as of recent in which Bills ground game has been much better, I think we can run the ball on Pats better than the last games against them.

 

Both Chargers and Pats as a 1st round opponent have certain things that could make one a little more confident, but considering everything imo I think going against the rookie QB getting his 1st taste of the post season atmosphere is little better.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Per Mike Sando of The Athletic:

 

"Most wins against teams that finished above .500:

 

8: Titans

7: Chiefs, Bucs

6: Bills, Raiders

5: Colts, Packers, Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, Chargers, Dolphins."

 

Very interesting stat I hadn't seen before and with two main takeaways in my eyes:

 

1) The Bills tied for the third-most wins against plus .500 teams across the whole NFL...seems to conflict with the narrative that we had a cupcake schedule and never played anyone good. I'm definitely not saying it was a tough schedule, but I think the slate of opponents looked like the easiest list we had faced in years before the season started and then they wound up looking a bit stronger as the season went on. 

 

2) No Patriots on that list despite the fact that they faced an even easier schedule than we did.