Scott7975 Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said: Um, it's his BROTHER. He's gonna stick up for him no matter what. And he should. Nah, he should learn from Rodgers how to deal with family. 2 Quote
Ray Stonada Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 Since the Broncos blew it against the Chiefs (dang it, Gordon), Buffalo can be the number 3 seed at best. Bills need to beat the Jets, and Browns beat the Bengals, and Buffalo is number 3. If Buffalo wins and the Bengals win, Buffalo is number 4. Quote
Scott7975 Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 Ill take this outcome... Bills, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Miami, Raiders all win. Titans Bye Pats at KC Colts At Cinci Raiders At Bills 1 1 Quote
Ray Stonada Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Scott7975 said: Ill take this outcome... Bills, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Miami, Raiders all win. Titans Bye Pats at KC Colts At Cinci Raiders At Bills Yup, and which could lead to this divisional round: Bills at Titans Colts/Bengals at KC I’d take it. Quote
UKBillFan Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Scott7975 said: Ill take this outcome... Bills, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Miami, Raiders all win. Titans Bye Pats at KC Colts At Cinci Raiders At Bills For that we need wins for the Bengals, Colts, Titans, Bills, Dolphins and Raiders. Steelers at Ravens doesn’t have an impact, except if the Colts lose. With all of the other above results remaining the same but… The Bengals lose - we’ll be at home to the Colts The Colts lose - If the Steelers win, they’ll go into the Play Offs instead, as seven seed. The Pats move up to sixth and we’ll still get the Raiders. If the Ravens win, the Colts are seventh seed instead. The Titans lose - The Bills still get the Raiders. Titans slip to third with Bengals second; Chiefs get the bye. *Gulp* The Bills lose - Actually very little changes; we remain at four and face the Raiders The Dolphins lose - Pats move up to fifth and visit the Bills; Raiders drop to six. The Raiders lose - Bills get the Colts. ETA - if the Chargers beat the Raiders then we’ll want the Pats to beat the Dolphins. The Pats will then be number five seed and come here. Edited January 9, 2022 by UKBillFan 1 Quote
Playoffs? Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: Um, it's his BROTHER. He's gonna stick up for him no matter what. And he should. I disagree that ‘he should.’ He can be a role model and sit his brother down, and out of love, tell him that he doesn’t approve of what little ‘Mahoms’ is doing. You can still love and support someone, and discipline them at the same time. 1 Quote
Livinginthepast Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 That horrible fumble last night by the Broncos instantly reminded me of this horrible game changing play (also against KC) by Jeff Tool in 2013. So glad those days of epic ineptitude are over! https://www.buffalobills.com/video/wk-9-can-t-miss-play-100-yard-pick-six-11715906 Quote
NewEra Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 4 hours ago, Scott7975 said: Ill take this outcome... Bills, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Miami, Raiders all win. Titans Bye Pats at KC Colts At Cinci Raiders At Bills This is what we should be praying for. Quote
NewEra Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 Sorry, I can’t get the playoff machine to work on my phone, dunno wtf is up other than my tech skills. So who do we play if: Bills win colts win titans win bengals LOSE. pats win chargers win: do we play the colts? raiders win: do we play the raiders? Quote
No_Matter_What Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) @Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79 Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD) Edited January 9, 2022 by No_Matter_What 1 Quote
HappyDays Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said: @Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79 Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD) Yeah I actually don't think the kick was a terrible decision. 4th and 9 is a no win situation. Even if they had gone for it and converted a TD they still would have needed to stop KC one more time. At least kicking the FG leaves you with a chance to get the ball back and win with a TD. The bigger problem was the two shots into the endzone on 2nd and 3rd down that left them in a 4th and 9. 1 Quote
Big Blitz Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said: @Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79 Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD) Appreciate the data. Thanks - and I get it. I just think you have a few factors worth considering here. So ok. You need a stop no matter what right? Wouldn't you want to get that stop at the Chiefs own 10 rather then the 25 or beyond after kick off - not a huge deal but they are pinned deep. It's the Chiefs. I'm not betting on getting the ball back. Quote
y2zipper Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said: @Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79 Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD) Yes because getting 4th and 9 is very unlikely. It's not decision-bot hard there. Quote
No_Matter_What Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Appreciate the data. Thanks - and I get it. I just think you have a few factors worth considering here. So ok. You need a stop no matter what right? Wouldn't you want to get that stop at the Chiefs own 10 rather then the 25 or beyond after kick off - not a huge deal but they are pinned deep. It's the Chiefs. I'm not betting on getting the ball back. If the model is correct then everything you mention is already accounted for, that is the point. First bolded - yeah it si easier to stop them from own 10 than 25, but in first case you lose by 7, whereas in second scenario you only lose by 4. Thats the difference. TD wins the game. Second bolded makes little sense. If you are not getting the ball back, you already lost the game. They have 4.37min and a good kicker. There is NO WAY you win that game without getting the ball back, thats the point. Quote
Big Blitz Posted January 9, 2022 Posted January 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said: If the model is correct then everything you mention is already accounted for, that is the point. First bolded - yeah it si easier to stop them from own 10 than 25, but in first case you lose by 7, whereas in second scenario you only lose by 4. Thats the difference. TD wins the game. Second bolded makes little sense. If you are not getting the ball back, you already lost the game. They have 4.37min and a good kicker. There is NO WAY you win that game without getting the ball back, thats the point. To me it's what we're my odds of stopping them, then getting the ball back and going down and scoring. I had those odds at - I hated them. Quote
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