538 analysis: Bills underperformed with schedule set up to dominate

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Correlation does not imply causation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can say the same thing for this year then too. Did coaching cause Josh Allen's foot to slip out in the Tennessee game?

Or Diggs to get molested in the end zone where he was wide open to catch the pass in the Tampa Bay game?

Or someone to miss a block in the Pittsburgh game for a punt block TD?

Edited January 7, 2022 by Big Turk

[eball]

This analysis is completely correct and something most of us acknowledged all year.  The middle of the season is a mystery, and a tale of wasted opportunity.  The good (great) news is that something woke the team up during halftime of the Tampa game, and now all bets are off.  This could now be the dominating force I expected.

[bigduke6]

zero issue with this team being called underperforming for this season.   most of us expected more,  more consistency,  more wins.    its nearly playoff time and once that starts,  and anything can happen.   

 

weathered the storm,  now its time to put up or shut up.

[Da webster guy]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

After decades of watching football, I'm convinced that one score games are decided by some combination of skill and luck.  It's not all about skill.  Like Nextmanup, I don't completely buy the adage that 'some teams just know to win close games

 

As always, Hondo makin' sense from way across the country.

 

There is a ton of luck involved in these games, and referee involvement is a huge part of that.  We didn't deserve to beat the Rams last year but they called a ticky tack hold on the guy covering Gabe Davis at the end of the game and we won because of it. 

 

The no calls in the Patriots MNF game were ridiculous and the tape backed it up.   If Bass makes that chip shot field goal in that game then it's 14-13 and we kick at the end from in close and win 16-14.  Josh slipping in the rain vs Tenn, etc.  The bottom line there is a ton of luck involved every time I hear "some teams just know how to win close games" I laugh.   Think about Milano and Siran Neal--two of our best tacklers--hitting Deshaun Watson simultaneously at the end of the playoff game two years ago at and their collision allows Watson to squirt out and win the game, had nothing to do with us 'knowing how to win a close game' and everything to do with luck.

 

The only thing I would concede is that some qb's and offenses run better 2 minute drills than others, take a more aggressive approach to winning the game instead of going into OT.  This may skew the results slightly but we also saw the Chargers and Ravens lose games this year simply because they were too aggressive.

 

 

[Dr.Sack]

Every team outside of the 72 Dolphins that has ever won a Super Bowl has underperformed in one game. Heck, the 2007 Patriots waited for the worse moment to underperform and cost themselves a perfect season. 
 

If the Bills finish with a 15-6 record is all that matters.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

46 minutes ago, bigduke6 said:

zero issue with this team being called underperforming for this season.   most of us expected more,  more consistency,  more wins.    its nearly playoff time and once that starts,  and anything can happen.   

 

weathered the storm,  now its time to put up or shut up.

looks like nobody really disagrees with that much...its more that inconsistency was at an all time high this year league-wide so its kind of odd picking on individual teams.

[FilthyBeast]

You just get the sense that a few years down the road (especially if this team doesn't reach a SB and/or win one) that we are going to look back at a true missed opportunity given how easy this schedule was on paper and how we should have had a clear path to the #1 seed even with losing to the Titans. There's just no excuse for this team to not be sitting at 12-4 at worse right now.

 

I also saw a piece posted on social media earlier that took every team's record in one score games this year reversed that, Buffalo would be 15-1 (only bad blowout loss coming to Indy who would have ranked #2 on that same list at 12-4).

 

On paper next years schedule is looking brutal if the current division leads hold around the league. Will have games against Bengals/Chiefs/Titans/Rams locked in, plus an improving division to deal with.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

You just get the sense that a few years down the road (especially if this team doesn't reach a SB and/or win one) that we are going to look back at a true missed opportunity given how easy this schedule was on paper and how we should have had a clear path to the #1 seed even with losing to the Titans. There's just no excuse for this team to not be sitting at 12-4 at worse right now.

 

I also saw a piece posted on social media earlier that took every team's record in one score games this year reversed that, Buffalo would be 15-1 (only bad blowout loss coming to Indy who would have ranked #2 on that same list at 12-4).

 

On paper next years schedule is looking brutal if the current division leads hold around the league. Will have games against Bengals/Chiefs/Titans/Rams locked in, plus an improving division to deal with.

how much does regular season record really impact playoff success though if we end up winning the division anyway?  most people on here seem like they want our playoff games on the road anyway.  were playing all those good teams next year because we won the division.

[FilthyBeast]

2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

how much does regular season record really impact playoff success though if we end up winning the division anyway?  most people on here seem like they want our playoff games on the road anyway.  were playing all those good teams next year because we won the division.

 

If this team wins a championship this year, or even gets to the SB then the regular season argument doesn't matter in relation to playoff seeding/home field advantage.

 

But I still have a hard time seeing this team going on the road in winning consecutive games in TEN and KC given the fact we are 1-3 in such games over the past two seasons.

 

This is why the win KC earlier in the year was supposed to mean something in terms of securing the tie breaker and home field in the playoffs should they meet again down the road. I just don't see any scenario in which the Bills are going to go into Arrowhead again and win there in the playoffs especially given how different a team KC is right now compared to when we played them 3 months ago.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

If this team wins a championship this year, or even gets to the SB then the regular season argument doesn't matter in relation to playoff seeding/home field advantage.

 

But I still have a hard time seeing this team going on the road in winning consecutive games in TEN and KC given the fact we are 1-3 in such games over the past two seasons.

 

This is why the win KC earlier in the year was supposed to mean something in terms of securing the tie breaker and home field in the playoffs should they meet again down the road. I just don't see any scenario in which the Bills are going to go into Arrowhead again and win there in the playoffs especially given how different a team KC is right now compared to when we played them 3 months ago.

I would argue we have been much better as a team in the last few weeks also so it is hard to say what will happen.  Why do other teams get the benefit of the doubt for early season struggles and we do not?  I dont think KC is a bad matchup for us should we get there.

[billsfan89]

10 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

This year we lost 5 one possession games and were blown out once.

 

Last year we won 5 one possession games and lost one.

 

I don't think it is about not having what it takes to win those games. Sometimes the ball just won't bounce our way. 

Some of those one possession games in 2020 were games where the Bills were up two possessions late and then a garbage time score with less than 2 minutes left put it to one possession. The Raiders game, second Jets game and first Miami game followed that formula. 
 

The only three down to the wire games the team had in 2020 were the Rams, first Pats game and Cardinals. The Bills took 2 out of 3. 

[Real McClappy]

I've been waiting for threads like this forever!

 

We are about to win the Division 2yrs in a row with 11 wins this year and not happy??? Just think about that for a minute..  We should be rolling into the playoffs on a 4 game win streak (should be 5).

 

This sure beats that 20yrs of hell we endured before McD.  Good times guys, good times.

 

I guess if we lose in the wildcard round, the premise under-performed in the reg season is relevant.  I do truly think we should have took the #1 seed in the AFC this year for a 1st rd bye. If we clear the wildcard round the regular season doesn't matter at all anymore.

[JoPoy88]

10 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

This is the ENTIRETY of what sports is all about.

 

And yet fans/media love to generate false narratives built around human nature.

 

"They had to learn how to win."

 

"They didn't want it badly enough."

 

"We weren't tough enough."

"We needed to come together as a team."

 

...and all this sort of total garbage!

 

 

Lol yes. i think you hit the AM sports radio caller superfecta with those quotes. All meaningless BS.

[BananaB]

Win the Super Bowl and no one cares what you did in regular season. Bills have the team that can do it. 

[BarleyNY]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:59 AM, TheFunPolice said:

It did seem that way... It's been a weird season for sure. 

 

It's almost like they're falling victim to not getting as up for regular season games now that they've had a taste of the playoffs. 

 

Of course you can't do that and "nobody ever would" (officially) but it's probably human nature after a bunch of playoff runs to view most regular season games as just something to get through until the real games start. 

I think that the approach of teams (or individuals) in seasons or tournaments (including playoffs) changes with experience, expectations and ability.  The best can conserve their energy and health for the end game.  They usually don’t HAVE to leave it all on the field to beat lesser opponents, so they don’t. The still get the win, but they don’t take unnecessary risks or show too much.  Then they are in a much better position than many others toward the end to win it all. 

Edited January 8, 2022 by BarleyNY

[What a Tuel]

14 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Some of those one possession games in 2020 were games where the Bills were up two possessions late and then a garbage time score with less than 2 minutes left put it to one possession. The Raiders game, second Jets game and first Miami game followed that formula. 
 

The only three down to the wire games the team had in 2020 were the Rams, first Pats game and Cardinals. The Bills took 2 out of 3. 

 

We were never up 2 scores for that jets game. In fact we were losing until a FG with 1:37 left in the 3rd quarter making it 12-10. Two more field goals in the 4th quarter and a shut down defense allowed us to come up with a win 18-10. This is very comparable to the crappy Jaguars game this year.

 

The Raiders game we were winning 23 to 16 at the start of the 4th quarter. I would argue that this is much like the Titans game this year. Instead of driving down and putting us up two scores against the titans, we punted. This resulted in the Titans driving back down and scoring a TD putting them up by 3. In the Raiders game, we drove down and scored and put the raiders in desperation mode.

 

The Dolphins game we were only up by 2 scores at 3:09 left in the 4th quarter (46 yard td pass to John Brown). Had we punted, it could have gone much the way of the Titans, Steelers, etc.