538 analysis: Bills underperformed with schedule set up to dominate

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-buffalo-bills-got-the-least-bang-for-their-schedules-buck-this-season/?ex_cid=538twitter

I think this is completely true.  The Bills best themselves (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville) and lost 3 games by 1 score (Tennessee, NE, and TB)

 

They probably should have 13 to 14 wins.  But they made it into the playoffs and given the weather at home, it makes you wonder if the Bills are better off playing in the road in the postseason 

[hondo in seattle]

Interesting article but I think it's wrong to assert the Bills' chances in the playoffs are long because they underperformed all season.

 

First of all, let me paraphrase the article's main thesis: 'For as talented as the Bills are, they underperformed by only earning 10 wins when you consider the strength (weakness) of their opponents.'

 

Maybe another team earning 10 wins is overachieving.  But for the Bills, it's underperforming.  Because the Bills have talent.  

 

Let's not get hung up on the underperforming part.  Let's talk about the premise of the argument: the Bills have talent.  Clearly, a talented team has a good chance of doing well in the playoffs.  

 

Onto another point.   After decades of watching football, I'm convinced that one score games are decided by some combination of skill and luck.  It's not all about skill.  Like Nextmanup, I don't completely buy the adage that 'some teams just know to win close games.'

 

So imagine a team wins 10 games one season, going 5-0 in one score games.   Without big roster or coaching changes, I would predict that same team to win maybe 8 games the following season.   Or to say it another way, if the Bills got to play this season over again, I'd expect about 12 wins instead of 10 right now.   When predicting the playoffs, I think you have to look at the Bills as a 12-win team.  

 

Then look at yardage totals.  The team with the most yardage has a good probability of winning.  The Bills do well in offensive and defensive yardage stats.  While we have lost to teams that haven't performed as well statistically, those losses are anomalies.  They aren't predictive.    

 

The Bills have as good a chance in the playoffs as any other AFC team.  

 

 

[Nextmanup]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Let's move on.  None of it matters now.  Just win.  If they get bumped out of the playoffs we can start to look at the moves Beane did and didn't make after the season is over.  If they win the SB no one will care that they lost to Jacksonville

"let's move on" LOL.  

 

We can eliminate this entire board and any reason to post anything in it, ever, with the simple statement: "We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out."

 

But what fun would that be?

 

 

[Rockinon]

Just thinking about the mindset of players. I can recall a couple of games early this year the team had some games where it seemed the players have no issue with believing in themselves. They would fall behind and it seemed they were refusing to panic. The game on the line and that sense of urgency wasn't there. Sometimes, there is something to it when coaches talk about staying humble but in Buffalo's case I don't think that is quite it. They believed they could come back and win some of those games but a combination of poor execution and other teams becoming familiar with ours kind of took it's toll. I believe this team is as good as any, but just needs to keep that sense of urgency going. They thought they could win by just executing their game plan. Sometimes, you just have to take chances. A blitz, a shot downfield...even a running play can be a risk. Thing is, there are moments in a game where you have to throw the game plan out the window and try something else. No team is so good that they can just do the same thing over and over and then expect it to work.

 

I've seen some new things happening the last few weeks that are encouraging. Singletary running better is good to see. Allen running more. This week, I expect to see a lot of passing. The Bills are getting better at mixing things up. Those play action passes after a successful run have been lethal. Even the defense is doing some things. I'm recalling an interview of Ed Oliver a couple of weeks ago. He said that he is just going off, and not thinking as much. He hasn't been able to do that because last year he couldn't play 3tech the way it should be played. Heck, he even had to play 1tech for part of the season. This year, he's finding his wings at his natural position. It's been a fascinating year. Then you've got CB's out there holding their own with White out for the rest of the year. That urgency is back. Much of this game is instinct. I think what we are seeing the last few games is a result of thinking less and guys simply allowing their god given ability to take over.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

Missed QB sneak - loss to titans

Drop on 2nd down, missed protection on 3rd - loss to Jags

Wind game missed FG and red zone ending - loss to patriots

Blocked punt making a 2 score game - loss to steelers

Missed PI call on Diggs - loss to TB

 

Literally some bounces, some calls, and some execution mistakes away from winning any of those games.  Allen puts you on the 2 yard line against Tenn, into jags territory, into the RZ twice against NE, and what should have been 1st and goal from the 1 against TB.  Teams know that this team can beat anyone, and there isn't some magic recipe that is going to shut buffalo down.  

 

It was the play before the missed PI that, to me, symbolized how close this team was to being 12-4 / 13-3 right now, and how the NFL literally is a game of inches sometimes. Allen scrambles and lays out to get the ball to the pylon, only to have stepped out of bounds. I'm not disputing that he did step out (probably twice). I just think this play exemplifies just how close those close games were.

 

 

An inch or two difference and this is a highlight score. If he gets this score and gets that 1st down in the Tenn game (and scores), it is a completely different scenario and narrative heading into the playoffs - and Allen's chances at MVP.

 

That close...

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by billsfan1959

[NewEra]

40 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I bet the Chargers over/unders.  I bet over 9 & have a push on that one & can win it if they win on Sunday so I'll be rooting big time for the Chargers vs the Raiders.  Then I got greedy because the odds were +190 and bet over 10.5 wins on LAC.  I lost that when they couldn't beat Houston.  The best I can do is limit my loses to 25% of the total I bet on the LAC since I bet more on over 10.5. 

 

I can still make money on my futures if the Bills win the AFC.  I bet them at +550.  If they win the AFC I will more than double my original future bet wagers.  

Ouch.  The Texans and jags besting the chargers and bills costing us our bets. 
 

i got the bills +500 for the afc  and +900 for the SB and + 900 17 wins mvp.  
 

luckily I didn’t have to sweat out my biggest bet, packers over 10.5 wins. What a blunder by the books!!  10.5……lol

[LABILLBACKER]

Speculation is part of human nature.  We'll always do it. The Steeler and Jag games were inexcusable. I'm sure the coaches and players will admit that. After we beat the Jets that would've matched last years 13 win season. The one thing I've learned about sports is it's not who's hot in the middle of the season.  It's who's hot late. We'll be fine. Clean some stuff up.

[Rigotz]

1) Bills will likely win the division and finish as a top 3-4 seed.

2) Other than Tre, the team is almost completely healthy going into the playoffs.

3) We beat KC early in the year and should fear no team in the AFC.

4) Josh Allen cemented himself as a franchise QB. No more “silent stadium” or “fluke” excuses.

 

Thats a pretty damn successful regular season, if you ask me. Excited for the playoffs and don’t care about anything else.

[BuffaloMatt]

Game of inches. ( That's what she said)

[atlbillsfan1975]

The entire AFC underperformed 

[JESSEFEFFER]

I think the conclusion is correct but basing it on the QBR of opponents is whacky.  Home losses to the Pats and Colts had next to nothing to do with QB play.  Imo, the Bills struggled in games where their OL/DL struggled.  I can't explain it any other way.  They look better now in that department than they have all season.

[Alphadawg7]

Here’s the thing…who cares.  Seasons over this weekend, and we are in the new season…playoffs.  What’s happened up to now means nothing anymore.  
 

End of the day, they did what they needed to do get into the playoffs and Sunday they can do one more thing to also lock down second consecutive divisional title too.  
 

I’ve watched so many teams that were not dominating in the regular seasons go into the playoffs and win the SB.  Including 3 times one of them beat Brady led Pats (Giants twice, including Pats undefeated season and Eagles).  Also Flacco and the Ravens, Seahawks smashed the greatest offense in NFL history, and the Bucs last year who had the same record at the same point in the season when we played the Bucs this year (which is the game things seem to spark a turn around for us).

 

All that matters now is what this team took away from those struggles and adjustments we have made heading into the post season.  
 

If not for a ref screw job against Bucs at end of regulation, Bills would be talked about more right now as a team rolling and one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. 
 

And I really do think we are going to reach at least the AFCCG again this year and have a really good shot to win it and head to the SB.  

 

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[SirAndrew]

It’s irrelevant if we make a nice playoff run. Failure to secure a higher seed will make a “disappointing” regular season seem relevant if we make an early exit. In reality we have one huge regular season game left to play. I realize it’s the Jets, but it’ll play a big part in determining how successful this regular season was. There’s a big difference between being division champ and a wild card, and it all comes down to Sunday. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

They 100% under preformed. The schedule was very easy this year and the team is going down to the wire in a must win game for the division. The biggest issue has been coaching. McDermott and Daboll have struggled massively at times this year. They aren’t in danger of going anywhere but they could and should be doing better with the talent on this roster. 

Pats played the same-ish easy schedule or easier though so the easiness of the schedule doesnt really factor in to winning the division.  lot of weird stuff this season due to guys missing time with covid and the reduced cap league-wide

Edited January 7, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here’s the thing…who cares.  Seasons over this weekend, and we are in the new season…playoffs.  What’s happened up to now means nothing anymore.  
 

End of the day, they did what they needed to do get into the playoffs and Sunday they can do one more thing to also lock down second consecutive divisional title too.  
 

I’ve watched so many teams that were not dominating in the regular seasons go into the playoffs and win the SB.  Including 3 times one of them beat Brady led Pats (Giants twice, including Pats undefeated season and Eagles).  Also Flacco and the Ravens, Seahawks smashed the greatest offense in NFL history, and the Bucs last year who has the same record we had when we played the Bucs this year (which is the game things seem to spark a turn around for us).

 

All that matters now is what this team took away from those struggles and adjustments we have made heading into the post season.  
 

If not for a ref screw job against Bucs at end of regulation, Bills would be talked about more right now as a team rolling and one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. 
 

And I really do think we are going to reach at least the AFCCG again this year and have a really good shot to win it and head to the SB.  

 

 

I tend to agree with this…the analytics guys would argue that losing all five one-score games is more the result of blind luck than bad coaching, and that the Bills are due to revert to the mean…maybe even in these playoffs.

[Rocbillsfan1]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Pats played the same-ish easy schedule or easier though so the easiness of the schedule doesnt really factor in to winning the division.  lot of weird stuff this season due to guys missing time with covid and the reduced cap league-wide

The pats overachieved if anything but they are about what we thought a contender for wildcard. This Bills team should have already had at least 2 more wins already. If Bill B was our coach Im confident this team would be preforming better. McDermott and Daboll need to be better. 

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

The pats overachieved if anything but they are about what we thought a contender for wildcard. This Bills team should have already had at least 2 more wins already. If Bill B was our coach Im confident this team would be preforming better. McDermott and Daboll need to be better. 

I think it's fair to suggest straight up better coaching would have turned a number of our 1 score losses into wins.

 

 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, beebe said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-buffalo-bills-got-the-least-bang-for-their-schedules-buck-this-season/?ex_cid=538twitter

 

I kinda said the same thing in my other thread about expected wins and how they should have 2+ more wins.

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I think it's fair to suggest straight up better coaching would have turned a number of our 1 score losses into wins.

 

 

 

So did the coaching suddenly become garbage after going 5-0 in such games last year?

[Nextmanup]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I kinda said the same thing in my other thread about expected wins and how they should have 2+ more wins.

 

So did the coaching suddenly become garbage after going 5-0 in such games last year?

Correlation does not imply causation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Missed QB sneak - loss to titans

Drop on 2nd down, missed protection on 3rd - loss to Jags

Wind game missed FG and red zone ending - loss to patriots

Blocked punt making a 2 score game - loss to steelers

Missed PI call on Diggs - loss to TB

 

Literally some bounces, some calls, and some execution mistakes away from winning any of those games.  Allen puts you on the 2 yard line against Tenn, into jags territory, into the RZ twice against NE, and what should have been 1st and goal from the 1 against TB.  Teams know that this team can beat anyone, and there isn't some magic recipe that is going to shut buffalo down.  

It is also the same team that gave 3 TDs to Henry,  5 TDs to Taylor,  3 TDs to Henry and a couple of ball-buster TDs to Fournette and a few other nobody RBs... Unless we shut down the run game against good offense,  these losses will get magnified.