Bills have underperformed this year by 2+ wins

[Motorin']

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

They have not been mentally prepared to take every teams best shot each week and ramp up the intensity. Kelly talked about how that was an issue with the Bills in 1989 after getting to the AFC Championship in 1988. They went from 12-4 to 9-7 and that was a big reason why he said...

 

This Bills team seems to be following suit.

 

Different teams. I think this year it was more about a long season after being 1 game away form the Super Bowl and not being able to get up for boring mid season games against teams they were supposed to beat. 

 

Now that every game is a playoff, it is freaking on. And we seem to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Based on the Expected win/loss totals, the Bills should be 12.2-3.8...obviously can't have a fraction of a win or loss so 12-4 would the rounding points...

 

Which would be good for first overall seed right now...frustrating to be in this position when they had so many winnable games they should have taken care of business in.

Those loses to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville were just stupid. The team and coaches were very unprepared for those 2. 

[JoshAllin]

For me the bills still feel like a 13 win team. Play those teams bills lost to earlier and bills win atleast half of those 9/10 times, at least pits and jags

Edited January 6, 2022 by motorj

[ProcessTruster]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Based on the Expected win/loss totals, the Bills should be 12.2-3.8...obviously can't have a fraction of a win or loss so 12-4 would the rounding points...

 

Which would be good for first overall seed right now...frustrating to be in this position when they had so many winnable games they should have taken care of business in.

 

and it is more than fair to say they overachieved last year certainly by more than 2+ wins (5-0 in one score games, for example). 

 

let it go.  progress is not linear.   Go Bills.  

[Dr. Who]

It's all about the playoffs. Bills have as good a chance as anyone and if they play their A game, they win.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I posted this in another thread regarding MVP voting. If you look at one factor this year that goes toward overall success in the performance of Allen and the team, it is close games.

 

If you look at the top 9 QBs this year, every one of them has at least 2 game winning drives - except Allen. Allen has 0 4th quarter comebacks and 0 GWD. Of 28 QBs with at least 11 starts, he is 1 of only 4 who do not have at least 1 GWD (Wentz, Mayfield, and Wilson being the others).

 

Compare that with what he did in his previous 3 years.

 

 

If Allen pulls out just two of them, Tenn and TB (where he was in a great position to do so), and, right now, he would have 2 4QC and 2 GWD, the Bills would have a 12-4 record, they would have won the AFC East, and own the #1 Seed. Even with the performance in the Atlanta game, I believe he would be in the running for MVP. 

 

I'm certainly not putting all the blame for the losses in close games on Allen. I just think this year has been an anomaly for him and, for me, the greatest concern going into the playoffs: They just haven't been able to pull out wins in close games.

 

Kind of a double edged sword though…as the only reason a lot of those were one score games was because of an insanely impressive effort by josh.  If he wasn’t playing close to mvp levels a lot of those one score games become blowout losses.  

[FilthyBeast]

6 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

We can be horribly inconsistent just in single games - in the first half against the Bucs we looked like also fans who would get an early pick in the draft; in the second half we looked like Super Bowl winners. In the first half against the Falcons we were dreadful though improved in the second. I’m not sure if not knowing what we’ll get is annoying or exciting.

 

This is another reason I still have very little faith this team is going to go far in the playoffs.

 

It just seems that they have not played a true complete game for 4 quarters yet in all 3 phases but especially defense/offense. Even in the big win in NE a few weeks the defense seemed determined to let Mac Jones rip them apart and back into the game for a stretch in the 2nd half but obviously we kept scoring so it didn't ultimately matter.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is another reason I still have very little faith this team is going to go far in the playoffs.

 

It just seems that they have not played a true complete game for 4 quarters yet in all 3 phases but especially defense/offense. Even in the big win in NE a few weeks the defense seemed determined to let Mac Jones rip them apart and back into the game for a stretch in the 2nd half but obviously we kept scoring so it didn't ultimately matter.

 

Almost no team has played a complete game in all phases for 4 quarters. The good is they are so talented even when they don't play well they usually smoke teams. The bad is that when they get in close games they haven't been able to figure out a way to win them even tho they have been inside the opponent 10 yard line 3 times in the final minute. None of those times resulted in a TD.

[Beast]

4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Kind of a double edged sword though…as the only reason a lot of those were one score games was because of an insanely impressive effort by josh.  If he wasn’t playing close to mvp levels a lot of those one score games become blowout losses.  

And if he played at close to an MVP level, half of those losses would have been wins.

 

It’s all relative. The team needs to play like they did in Foxboro moving forward.

[RaoulDuke79]

Agreed....should have beat the Steelers and the Jags. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 minutes ago, Beast said:

And if he played at close to an MVP level, half of those losses would have been wins.

 

It’s all relative. The team needs to play like they did in Foxboro moving forward.

I don’t know that that’s always true…couldn’t play much better than he did in the titans loss .  That one was entirely on the defense. Games like the jags that is certainly true for though 

[1ManRaid]

11 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

The league average in one score games is 50% one team wins and the other loses. 

 

I love how Sammy felt the need to downvote this comment, as if you said something outrageous.

 

10 hours ago, dneveu said:

Well the Titans game was a bad qb sneak away from a likely win.  The Jags game was insanely winnable - Davis drop on 2nd and 7, and the whiffed pass pro by daryl williams was the next play which knocked buffalo out of tying field position and resulted in 4th and 16.  Davis catches that pass and its 1st and 10 inside the 30 yard line with 3 timeouts.  

 

Titans game had a blatant uncalled hold that sprung Henry for his long TD run.  Also a return TD called back from a phantom hold.

 

Jags game had about 300 uncalled false starts that kept the Jags in the game, as well as an uncalled Offside that should have given Josh a free play.

[Weatherman]

11 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

The league average in one score games is 50% one team wins and the other loses. 

You’re forgetting the tie.  So 48/48, almost like roulette betting red/black.  

[RiotAct]

9 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Those loses to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville were just stupid. The team and coaches were very unprepared for those 2. 

I can forgive the Pittsburgh loss… they’re not a terrible team and there’s always wackiness on opening week.

 

The Jacksonville loss, though… w t f

[Southern_Bills]

12 hours ago, Gobills14094 said:

It's the NFL.. we won nearly every one of our one score games last year. Call it luck or whatever but I think this thread is pointless.

 

Not pointless, just shows that "things" happen. Josh gets the score against the Titans, there's one. We get the call or Diggs catches the ball against the Bucs there's 2. We could go on but why?

 

They are in the dance and nothing matters besides what's in front of them. 3 months ago means nothing, or 3 weeks ago. 

 

Win out and no one remembers anything but you winning.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

 

and it is more than fair to say they overachieved last year certainly by more than 2+ wins (5-0 in one score games, for example). 

 

let it go.  progress is not linear.   Go Bills.  

 

Hail Murray?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

I love how Sammy felt the need to downvote this comment, as if you said something outrageous.

 

 

I was thinking it might actually be above or below .500  if viewing it as median. But even breaking it out that way it is likely to be .500 or so damn close to .500 I don't think it matters. So yes, the average team does in fact go .500.

 

I took a look at the 2019 season and teams 16, 17, 18 and 19 all went .500 in one score games. There was a slight bias towards more teams going .500 or better vs. going under .500

 

That was the sort of information I was looking for but obviously the results are .500. That was data for 2019. No idea how other years stack up but I would assume very similar. I'm not a math wiz but I'm thinking it's still possible for the median to be less than or greater than .500 any given year. But we would be talking a difference of .1 or .2 wins at most probably.  So yeah, pie in face. 

[GoBills808]

12 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

One of the bigger factors in predicting NFL win totals is mean regression in one score game record from the season prior. 
 

It’s likely that a team that goes 0-5 in one score games improves on that the following season. 

[FireChans]

13 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Extremely true. This is why I keep betting tons of money on Sam Darnold and betting against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Because past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

My wife took my kids.

[BarleyNY]

20 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WTF?  Past performance is not a GUARANTEE of future results, but it’s absolutely indicative of them.  The exception you are thinking of is only valid for purely random events. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by BarleyNY