Bills have underperformed this year by 2+ wins

[BearNorth]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I’m not sure what the league average is in one score games but it’s most certainly not O-5  or anywhere close to that. It’s probably somewhere close to 2-3 or 40%.
 

Yeah if the bills just somehow found a way to win two out of their 51 score games they’d be leading the conference. That’s not asking the world of the team.

 

We can likely view this as a positive going into next season in that it’s unlikely they will duplicate a 0–5 record in the same games.

League average in one score games is 50%.  one team wins, one team loses. In the four McDermott seasons, Bills have played 26 games decided by 8 points or less.  we are 12-14 with this year's 0-5 factored in.  So before this year, Bills were ahead of the expected outcome by 3 wins (12 wins 9 losses).

 

In games decided by more than 8 points Bills are 27-11 [.711 win % - equates 12-5 in a 17 game season]

[HamptonBillsfan]

The Bills are ascending at seasons end. They have learned that Josh cannot be expected to be our entire running attack and win games by himself. The O-line is opening holes and Motor and Moss are running with authority. The games they lost (Tampa, Tenn, NE) were winnable, but we lost all of them,which means we weren't good enough. Now our season starts. Remember, the Bucs got it going in Dec. last year and won it all.

[Joe Mama]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

We can likely view this as a positive going into next season in that it’s unlikely they will duplicate a 0–5 record in the same games.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[DrDawkinstein]

If/when we win the Super Bowl, after crying tears of joy, the first words out of my mouth will still be "I cant believe we lost to the f#&%ing Jags"

[BillsFanSD]

47 minutes ago, dneveu said:

Well the Titans game was a bad qb sneak away from a likely win.  The Jags game was insanely winnable - Davis drop on 2nd and 7, and the whiffed pass pro by daryl williams was the next play which knocked buffalo out of tying field position and resulted in 4th and 16.  Davis catches that pass and its 1st and 10 inside the 30 yard line with 3 timeouts.  

Also, our WR1 was tackled in the end zone at the end of regulation in Tampa, which was apparently legal in that jurisdiction.  

[RyanC883]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

If/when we win the Super Bowl, after crying tears of joy, the first words out of my mouth will still be "I cant believe we lost to the f#&%ing Jags"

 

That's a BIG if.  This team has yet to consistently put  together a complete game against a winning teams.  The inconsistency is maddening.  This team is so talented and can beat anyone, but the continual player mental errors and coaching errors are nauseating.  Look at the Falcons game, not great.  Yeah, a W, but if they come out like that against a good team, easy L.  

[FilthyBeast]

35 minutes ago, Gobills14094 said:

It's the NFL.. we won nearly every one of our one score games last year. Call it luck or whatever but I think this thread is pointless.

 

It's not pointless.

 

Yes the 2020 were great in one score games, but the 2021 is winless in them and that matters when looking and predicative analytics and trends.

 

What is honestly more amazing and somewhat a statistical anomaly is the fact that all 10 of this teams wins have been by 12+ points. That's just absurd and shows the true jekyll and hyde nature of this team.

[RyanC883]

1 minute ago, BillsFanSD said:

Also, our WR1 was tackled in the end zone at the end of regulation in Tampa, which was apparently legal in that jurisdiction.  

 

That's very true.  But why did it come down to that play?  Why didn't we play like we are capable of the entire game.  We should have won that game if we showed up in the 1st half.  

10 minutes ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

The Bills are ascending at seasons end. They have learned that Josh cannot be expected to be our entire running attack and win games by himself. The O-line is opening holes and Motor and Moss are running with authority. The games they lost (Tampa, Tenn, NE) were winnable, but we lost all of them,which means we weren't good enough. Now our season starts. Remember, the Bucs got it going in Dec. last year and won it all.

 

no doubt we can get it going.  We just to actually, you know, get it going.  We can begin with a beatdown of the Jets this weekend.  I also have not seen Moss running with authority.  Motor looks better than him in every regard.  At this point, I'd try Williams over Moss and see what happens v. Jets.  

[WotAGuy]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

If/when we win the Super Bowl, after crying tears of joy, the first words out of my mouth will still be "I cant believe we lost to the f#&%ing Jags"

I’m old I know, but I keep remembering the Jets lost to the Bills the year the Jets won the Super Bowl. The Bills were 1-12-1 that year. 

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's not pointless.

 

Yes the 2020 were great in one score games, but the 2021 is winless in them and that matters when looking and predicative analytics and trends.

 

What is honestly more amazing and somewhat a statistical anomaly is the fact that all 10 of this teams wins have been by 12+ points. That's just absurd and shows the true jekyll and hyde nature of this team.

 

And they lead the NFL in net point differential even after the 2nd place team just went +40 in their game last week (NE).

11 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

That's very true.  But why did it come down to that play?  Why didn't we play like we are capable of the entire game.  We should have won that game if we showed up in the 1st half.  

 

no doubt we can get it going.  We just to actually, you know, get it going.  We can begin with a beatdown of the Jets this weekend.  I also have not seen Moss running with authority.  Motor looks better than him in every regard.  At this point, I'd try Williams over Moss and see what happens v. Jets.  

 

Moss had a couple of good runs last week but I agree Motor looks like he has taken over.

 

Now he just needs to not drop easy catches in the playoffs...he has had brutal drops in each of the last 2 years in the playoffs.

[Mr. WEO]

52 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Funny I had between 4 and 6 losses. 3 if I wore the rose colored glasses 

 

After going 13-3...and with an extra game?

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Based on the Expected win/loss totals, the Bills should be 12.2-3.8...obviously can't have a fraction of a win or loss so 12-4 would the rounding points...

 

Which would be good for first overall seed right now...frustrating to be in this position when they had so many winnable games they should have taken care of business in.

 

Since the NFL has adopted the 7 team per conference playoffs with only one team getting a bye week.. no team who has won the conference and earned the bye week has won the Superbowl. 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Malazan

[HamptonBillsfan]

16 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

That's very true.  But why did it come down to that play?  Why didn't we play like we are capable of the entire game.  We should have won that game if we showed up in the 1st half.  

 

no doubt we can get it going.  We just to actually, you know, get it going.  We can begin with a beatdown of the Jets this weekend.  I also have not seen Moss running with authority.  Motor looks better than him in every regard.  At this point, I'd try Williams over Moss and see what happens v. Jets.  

Why is there condemnation of 2nd year rbs, when the O-line was inept. Motor couldn't do anything for most of the season. Dabol didn't call running plays for entire halves of games(Tampa), yet you inexplicably want to play a guy who they cut a week ago and who hasn't played this year, instead of Moss. If you taped the Atlanta game, Moss ran well with the few carries he had. He ran better against Carolina as well. The O-line is playing better with different blocking schemes, and Motor ran wild for 120.

[FilthyBeast]

17 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

And they lead the NFL in net point differential even after the 2nd place team just went +40 in their game last week (NE).

 

Moss had a couple of good runs last week but I agree Motor looks like he has taken over.

 

Now he just needs to not drop easy catches in the playoffs...he has had brutal drops in each of the last 2 years in the playoffs.

 

Yes the point differential thing is ridiculous as well.

 

It just goes to show that if the team who has won 10 games shows up in the playoffs we'll have a chance to do something. If the other one shows up then we'll be talking about next year shortly after.

 

But at this point it's hard to have confidence this team is going to be consistent for 3+ straight weeks to make a serious run especially against other like teams and on the road for most of them.

[UKBillFan]

9 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Yes the point differential thing is ridiculous as well.

 

It just goes to show that if the team who has won 10 games shows up in the playoffs we'll have a chance to do something. If the other one shows up then we'll be talking about next year shortly after.

 

But at this point it's hard to have confidence this team is going to be consistent for 3+ straight weeks to make a serious run especially against other like teams and on the road for most of them.

We can be horribly inconsistent just in single games - in the first half against the Bucs we looked like also fans who would get an early pick in the draft; in the second half we looked like Super Bowl winners. In the first half against the Falcons we were dreadful though improved in the second. I’m not sure if not knowing what we’ll get is annoying or exciting.

[billsfan_34]

Projections and game day are 2 separate things….”any given Sunday”. We win  Sunday and our Bills are in a good spot. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

45 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

After going 13-3...and with an extra game?

yes.  
 

you never know which teams will improve or not. 

 

KC, Tenny, Indy were 3 

the Steelers though and on Bens last legs are a challenge and they L

 

the Jags game was an anomaly but they happen 

 

then factor in 1 or 2 in division L’s

 

 

 

[2003Contenders]

I know that it was Bill Parcells who famously said that "You are what your record says you are". That is, of course, true when it comes to seeding, etc. However, sometimes a team may be better/worse than their record would indicate. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 14-2 and had the #1 overall seed in the AFC back in 1999 -- with both regular season losses coming to the Tennessee Titans, the only team with a winning record that they played all year. I suppose that is where strength of schedule does come into play! For the record, the Jags lost to the Titans in the playoffs as well -- in the subsequent game to the MCM. Uggg!

 

I think our Bills are in the opposite situation. The W/L record does suggest that the team has under-performed. The Bills were favorites in all but 2 games in which they played this season. Ironically, they are 2-0 (against the Chiefs and the 2nd game against the Pats) in those 2 games in which they were underdogs. That means they have gone 8-6 in games in which they were picked to win. I would definitely have to call that "under-performing".

 

However...

 

They lead the league in point differential and no team is ranked as highly in total offense AND total defense. The Bills currently rank 5th in total offense and 1st in total defense -- the only team to rank in the top 5 in both categories.

 

The key, as everyone has pointed out, is that they have come up short in all 5 games that were decided by a single score. IMHO this has nothing to do with the clutch factor, as the same team has been rather clutch the last couple of seasons heading into this year. However, many factors have been at play, including timing, officiating, health -- and plain old luck.

 

I won't beat a dead horse about each of the losses, but in a nutshell, here is what we can say:

 

1. Pittsburgh. First it is a bit misleading to say that the Bills lost this game by one score (and, thus, incorrectly suggest that they are non-clutch for coming up short on a potential game winning/tying last minute drive). The Bills were down 2 scores inside of 2 minutes. Still, an extremely rare blocked punt for a TD was the difference in the game. This was the type of game that we often see in Week 1 match-ups, where nothing that happens is indicative of how the season will go. The Bills faced a healthy and highly motivated Pittsburgh team that day, that viewed the game against Buffalo as their "Super Bowl". The following week against the Raiders, the Steelers suffered a series of injuries -- and went into a tailspin afterwards.

 

2. Tennessee. This game could have gone either way. Two very good teams that were mostly healthy facing off under the lights on Monday night. We all remember the slip on the critical 4th down at the end of the game, but there were plenty of other things that could have happened in this game that would have landed the Bills the much-needed win. Regardless, this was the Titans at their BEST (with Henry, Julio and AJ Brown all healthy) -- and the Bills very nearly pulled it out.

 

3. Jacksonville. An aberration. No one will admit it, but the Bills absolutely under-estimated the Jags in this game. Yes, the offensive line was a mess -- down 2 starters. Yes, the officiating was terrible. Still, the culprit here was a lack of respect for the opposition -- and a failure by the coaching staff to adjust play calling in a game that was clearly a defensive battle.

 

4. Indy. Not much to say here other than everything that could go wrong did. Sometimes even the best teams have days like these. The Kelly era Bills always had a game or two like this every year (usually against KC or Pittsburgh). Sometimes you simply have to throw a game like this out because the performance and results are not indicative of anything in particular -- other than a very bad day at the office.

 

5. New England (Game 1). Obviously the weather was a huge factor. Much has been discussed about the Pats relentless rushing attack, but aside from a couple of critical runs, the Bills' defense held up OK -- and the Pats only scored a total of 14 points. Play calling was brutal here -- as this may have been Daboll's worst job as OC. Failure to better utilize Josh's legs, especially down around the goal line, was inexplicable.

 

6. Tampa Bay. It is true that the officials absolutely determined the outcome of the game. However, awful play (especially by the offense) in the first half put the team in a bind that they very nearly dug themselves out of. The Bills faced a Bucs team with both Mike Evans and C. Godwin, who have been limited/out since then. The Bucs then were subsequently shut out by the Saints and very nearly beaten by the Jets. The good news here is that in the 2nd half of the game, maybe the coaching staff finally figured out the recipe for success on offense.

 

A new season is now afoot. A win over the Jets this week earns the division and provides the Bills with home field at least for week one of the playoffs. After that anything is possible. Even if they have to play on the road afterwards, the Bills have shown that they can manhandle the Chiefs, and they came so very close to also beating the Titans on the road as well.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

yes.  
 

you never know which teams will improve or not. 

 

KC, Tenny, Indy were 3 

the Steelers though and on Bens last legs are a challenge and they L

 

the Jags game was an anomaly but they happen 

 

then factor in 1 or 2 in division L’s

 

 

 

 

 

I would have figured at least 12 wins.

[stinky finger]

 

The NFL is an amusement park. 
 

It’s what I expect.

Edited January 6, 2022 by inaugural balls