Josh Allen home/road splits

[Big Blitz]

32 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

There were no fans in the stands - which should add to the "home field doesn't matter" argument.  

 

And probably should have us strongly considering maybe it isn't pressing in front of home fans so much as yes, maybe it is the weather/wind in that stadium - what else explains his 2020 road stats vs home - while not significant, still a bit of a dip. 

 

The KC game was miserable - the Chiefs won that game by running for over 200 yards

 

In 2019, we played an elite New England Defense, and the Philly game was in pretty windy miserable conditions.  I'm not looking up the other 6 games. 

 

32 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

No.  Just no.  He's one of the 3 best QBs in the league.  I personally wouldn't want anyone else. 

 

32 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

 

Brady and Rodgers win everywhere.  

Edited January 4, 2022 by Big Blitz

[billybrew1]

6 hours ago, teef said:

i'm just taking the philosophy that if the bills are the better team, they should beat the team across from them, no matter where it's played.  

 

i get the road vs home debate, but i just think some are putting too much stock into it.

But teams are really close sometimes and we're more or less built to win by passing the football and the winds at the Ralph put a wrench in the works.

[RochesterLifer]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 

We also know that Josh talks about getting too jacked up and perhaps he is at home games and calmer on the road. 

Bourbon, it cures what ails 'ya.

[Big Blitz]

In 7 warm/hot weather games in 2020 he threw for just under 2300 yards.  And completed 70% of his passes.

 

That's almost a 5000 yard passing season pace 

 

In 2 "cold" weather games he threw for 462 yards and completed 61.8% of his passes.  

 

 

In 2021, in 7 warm/hot weather games, he threw for just over 2000 yards.  Completed around 65% of his passes.  

 

In 4 cold weather games, 789 yards and completed 54% of his passes.  

 

 

 

Worth noting....

 

Mahomes in 2020 - at home completed 63% of his passes for 2100 yards.  

 

On the road he completed 68% of his passes and threw for just under 2600 yards.  

 

In 8 home games last year Brady completed 62% of his passes and threw for 2100 yards.  

 

8 road games he threw for over 2500 yards and completed just under 70% of his passes.   

 

 

 

Take from all this whatever you will.  Just trying to provide some context and find a few comps.  

[harryS]

6 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

But so far Allen has played 4 games in playoffs. Won both home games and lost both road games. So there is that.

 

Right.  Even if Josh is better on the road than at home, if his teammates are better at home than on the road, and the opposing team is better at home than on the road (both typically true), then it's still better to be at home.

[34-78-83]

Its Orchard Park. Dave McBride has this whole thread covered. There are worse conditions for BOTH QB's (Bills AND their opponent) at every Bills home game as compared to just about every other venue. the stats of both the Bills QB's AND their opponents are going to always be worse in Buf than elsewhere especially in a year like we've had in 2021 with all the wind, snow and rain at literally every game.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

Second bolded: Pure speculation on your part. If I were to venture a guess, I would say, during the game, Allen is far more concerned with what happening on the field rather than what fans might be thinking.

This is actually not pure speculation. Josh has talked about getting too amped up.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Good QBs are worse in poor weather conditions.

[Dr.Sack]

I care more about Wins & Losses. As long as we win at home the stats don’t mean much. Allen is winning at home at a better clip then on the road. 

[teef]

1 hour ago, billybrew1 said:

But teams are really close sometimes and we're more or less built to win by passing the football and the winds at the Ralph put a wrench in the works.

the craziness of the weather this year isn't typical, (i'm going by memory, so i could be wrong).  i don't go to nearly as many games as i once did, but the colts game this year is one of of the wettest garbage games i've ever sat through.   i have to imagine the pats game was worse.  as long as we don't get mega high winds, or hard core rain, i don't think it's too much of an issue.

[auburnbillsbacker]

Is it due to the weather?

[billsfan1959]

30 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

This is actually not pure speculation. Josh has talked about getting too amped up.

 

Right, he has talked about getting amped up. He has also said it might have affected him on the first couple of plays. That is different from what I was responding to.

[transplantbillsfan]

I started a thread about this back in 2019

 

Yes I realize we've lost both of our road playoff games, but the point even back in 2019 was that you could just see that Allen generally plays better on the road for some reason.

 

Back in 2019 alone in examining road vs home:

 

Allen at home: 54.9% completion percentage, 5.9 YPA, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 76.9 Passer Rating

 

Allen on the road: 62.1% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 92.6 Passer Rating 

 

 

 

Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses at home: 46.2% completion percentage, 4.5 YPA, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 0 4th Quarter comebacks, 56.8 Passer Rating 

 

Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses on the road: 61.6% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 24th quarter comebacks, 88 Passer Rating 

 

 

4-4 at home

 

6-2 on the road

 

 

More 4th quarter comebacks on the road than at home.

 

2 primetime games both on the road. Both wins with Allen showing up on the big stage.

 

 

We can only speculate, but I think Allen just thrives off adversity.  He loves when everyone is against him (road) and is still trying to get used to everyone being behind him (home).  I think he'll get used to it, though.  He was better at home in college by a lot.  Bigger stage in the NFL by a ton, obviously.

 

This year it's pretty clear weather's really played a role.

[Paulus]

It's harder to play QB in the bad weather of Buffalo. 

 

I'm sure that is a contributing factor. This year seemed to really exemplify that. The Pats game was a huge recent example. There are plenty of others, should one look. 

 

It's almost like horses run slower in the slop.

 

 

The good that comes of this is that Josh should continue to get better in the slop, which should magnify itself to the comparatively fast conditions of away games. 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Paulus

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

Its Orchard Park. Dave McBride has this whole thread covered. There are worse conditions for BOTH QB's (Bills AND their opponent) at every Bills home game as compared to just about every other venue. the stats of both the Bills QB's AND their opponents are going to always be worse in Buf than elsewhere especially in a year like we've had in 2021 with all the wind, snow and rain at literally every game.

This 

 

not rocket surgery 

[AlfaBill]

Way too much analysis going on here. Best bet is to beat the Jests. Lock up the East. And beat the teams in front of you. All of this road vs home stuff is nonsense. At the end of the day they need to beat the teams they play where they play them. If JA is crap at home, they need to fix it or move on. You play half the season at home and potential play offs. 
I don’t believe there’s an issue outside of the crap weather (yes dome it) and game experience. 

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, teef said:

there's definitely an element to that, which is what i think the OP is ultimately trying to get at.  i'm not going to get too into it, but i have a feeling there's more to the story than just the stats posted.  

 

look at our three home losses this year.  who knows what happened in the opener against pit.  the other two were against the colts and the pats, which had some of the worst weather possible.  i have to imagine that comes into play too.  the home lost last year was against the chiefs, who aren't too shabby.  concerning the allen years before that, he was a raw young qb, and this team wasn't very good.  give it a few more years, and i don' think those numbers mean as much as some want them to right now.

 

I think the Pitts game is explained with the simplest answer... They were not prepared for the defense they faced.  They didnt know what was coming and didnt gameplan to it.  They had no answers for it.  It took them a while to get answers for that kind of defense really.  Just like the season before it took them a while to have an answer for cover 0.

[Starr Almighty]

11 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

Meanwhile I've played out every scenario possible in my head on how the AFC CG ends up being played in Buffalo 

 

[Rochesterfan]

14 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

 

oh look at who shows up with garbage comments 👏👏👏👏👏👏

[Wayne Cubed]

IMO, this looks a lot like looking at raw numbers and trying to come up with conclusions without any sort of context. As pointed out by a few posters and off the top of my head, Philly, Indy and NE** were all bad weather games. That represents 10% of the available home games Josh has played in. Throw in Josh's rookie season and that's another 6 games, where it was a bit of a mixed bag and Josh was a rookie QB.  Those 9 games account for 1/3 of the home games Josh has played in at home.

 

This also takes away from the fact that Josh has had some elite games played at home as well. Seattle last year springs to mind. He went 31/38 for 415 yards and 3 TDs and he rushed for a TD as well.

 

And as others have said how does Josh preform against other QBs who have played in OP?

Edited January 5, 2022 by Wayne Cubed