*[EDIT]* Multiple reports Browns actively shopping Mayfield pg. 29/30 - Ravens / Browns in QB contract pickle

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, ALF said:

Spotrac market value FWIW

 

Lamar Jackson  $40.1M  5Y $200.6M  QB rank 3  

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/lamar-jackson-25127/market-value/

 

Baker Mayfield   $29.1M  5Y $145.7M   QB rank 12

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/baker-mayfield-25096/market-value/

 

Thanks ALF you saved me having to go dig it up and post it.  These $'s are a good start.

Josh signed a 6 year extension at $43M per year.

 

As much of a "pickle" that the Ravens and Browns are in the same can be said about the players.

 

I will start with Jackson.  He is the poster child of a new type of QB.  The question is will teams and agents treat him like other more

"typical" QB or will his unique style and play equate to a different type of contract.  $40M sounds reasonable BUT is 5 years in length

right for the team?  One could ponder that his "athleticism" could have a huge drop off and his worth as a QB drop accordingly 3-4 years

from now.  I think a 5 year contract extension is risky for the team.  A 4 year contract with an out after 3 seems fair but will Lamar and

his mother see it that way?  I don't think they will and that could cause a stalemate that brings in a Franchise Tag in 2023.

 

Baker IMO is destined to play out his 5th year and unless he is willing to sign a much cheaper 4 year contract ($30M like Spotrac sites)

he risks the Browns moving on or giving a Franchise Tag at best.  Baker is a fool not to take whatever reasonable contract offered him or

he risks becoming irrelevant much quicker than he thinks ala Trubisky.  It will be a huge year for him to show his worth.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

Yes this is a different perspective which I pretty much just acknowleged.

 

It's not like Kelly was leading the league in passing every year the Bills made it to the SB, albeit a much different era. I guess my concern though is with so much money tied up in Allen he will truly need to carry the team some years when we aren't going to have some of the players we do now at key positions and/or lose other good players in FA.

 

I'm really eager to see what this team does in the playoffs because they are either going to validate the theory that regular season doesn't necessarily matter or prove they are exactly what we saw, particularly in games against good physical dline/oline. But at the end of the day the Bills paid Allen to deliver in the playoffs, right or wrong.

So going by this, the Ravens should not give Jackson a deal anywhere close to Josh’s considering his playoff performances, right?

[Logic]

In my opinion, the Ravens should absolutely re-sign Lamar, and they will.

He consistently has around a 100.0 QB Rating, rushes for 1,000 yards every year, and when the team isn't decimated by injuries, he usually has them with 10+ wins. You can't NOT re-sign a guy like that.

Baker Mayfield? Now THAT'S a head scratcher. Not sure I'd want to be in the QB purgatory that his re-signing would put the Browns in. Personally, if I was Cleveland, I'd let Mayfield play out his fifth year option and, assuming he doesn't show major improvement, look for a different answer at the QB position.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Mayfield stinks. The Browns would be insane to pay that guy. Lamar is extremely limited as a passer but they wouldn’t have the stones to move on from him. On the surface you’d look nuts to say Lamar isn’t that good and no team has the balls to take that PR hit. Maybe the Pats but the not the Ravens. They are going to go down with that ship.

[JGMcD2]

29 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is what's debatable.

 

For me (right now) Allen falls somewhere in the top 7 - 12 QB's in the league, so that's where you'd have to aggregate salary expectations.

 

I get that Beane rolled the dice on this move, but it could backfire in a major way and bury this franchise if Allen peaked last year under the weird covid/empy stadium season and 2021 numbers may be the best we ever see from him again.

 

I think what is also missing is that he has to move on from the type of games we saw on Sunday. You simply can't follow up a great performance against a playoff team with what he showed on Sunday against the Falcons which was a rookie type of outing. And all of the local/nation media have said the same thing which is all I'm saying as well.

 

What 6 - 11 QBs are playing better football than Josh Allen this season or over the past two seasons?

 

And are we talking statistically or are you sitting down and breaking down film an all of the NFL QBs to make this determination?

Edited January 4, 2022 by JGMcD2

[FilthyBeast]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

So going by this, the Ravens should not give Jackson a deal anywhere close to Josh’s considering his playoff performances, right?

 

The point is that Allen shouldn't be making that money either, probably closer to the proposed $200 Jackson contract at best.

 

But yes Jackson is 1-3 vs Allen 2-2 in playoffs thus far (Allen could move to 2-3 at worse come next week, but hopefully better). But Jackson does also have a league MVP trophy and multiple probowls under his belt.

 

Either way pretty sure the Ravens are going to have to pay Jackson close to or better than Allen now that the Beane set that precedent.

[teef]

21 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Yes this is a different perspective which I pretty much just acknowleged.

 

It's not like Kelly was leading the league in passing every year the Bills made it to the SB, albeit a much different era. I guess my concern though is with so much money tied up in Allen he will truly need to carry the team some years when we aren't going to have some of the players we do now at key positions and/or lose other good players in FA.

 

I'm really eager to see what this team does in the playoffs because they are either going to validate the theory that regular season doesn't necessarily matter or prove they are exactly what we saw, particularly in games against good physical dline/oline. But at the end of the day the Bills paid Allen to deliver in the playoffs, right or wrong.

sure.  it won't completely be on allen necessarily if they lose, but it's not an off statement.  that's not what was being discussed.  your comment was that the bills could/should have waited for allen because they could have paid less because he production is a bit down this year.  that's when the nonsense started.

 

also, if you and @Billsfan1972had a podcast together...i'd subscribe.  it would be the biggest piece of ***** ever.

Edited January 4, 2022 by teef

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

Either way pretty sure the Ravens are going to have to pay Jackson close to or better than Allen now that the Beane set that precedent.

Which is why your argument that Josh was overpaid doesn't make sense... the cap will continue to rise and the next crop of QB contracts will make more than or close to Josh and won't be producing at the same levels. 

 

You're trying to make Lamar out like he's been better than Josh over the last two seasons. Reality is Lamar is a guy who has come crashing down after his MVP season and Josh had one of the best statistical seasons the NFL has ever seen and came back out and performed at 90% of that the following year.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by JGMcD2

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Yes see above post, especially since their season has cratered without him and Jackson was carrying an injury ravaged team to the best record in the conference through the first 2/3rd of the season.

they cratered because their offense is Simplistic 

 

Run Lamar and allow him to pass to wide open receivers. 
 

Edited January 4, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

they cratered because their offense is Simplistic 

 

Run Lamar and allow to pass to wide open receivers. 
 

Except their offense hasn't cratered... Huntley has kept them going at a similar pace.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Don’t feed the trolls.  This one is utterly feasting.

[ColoradoBills]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

In my opinion, the Ravens should absolutely re-sign Lamar, and they will.

He consistently has around a 100.0 QB Rating, rushes for 1,000 yards every year, and when the team isn't decimated by injuries, he usually has them with 10+ wins. You can't NOT re-sign a guy like that.

 

I agree in theory BUT what if Lamar and his mom want 7 years $300M with $175M guaranteed?  It's the terms that could derail the contract.

[Seventeen]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Except their offense hasn't cratered... Huntley has kept them going at a similar pace.

 

They might be in the playoffs already had Harbaugh not decided twice to go for two at the end of games. 

[FilthyBeast]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

What 6 - 11 QBs are playing better football than Josh Allen this season or over the past two seasons?

 

And are we talking statistically or are you sitting down and breaking down film an all of the NFL QBs to make this determination?

 

It depends on what factors you are looking at, obviously if you are talking long term I'm not taking someone like Brady or Rogers whose careers are about to come to a close even though their body of work is what we aspire Allen to be.

 

But if we are talking current crop of young/mid career guys I'm at minimum taking Herbert, Mahomes, and Burrow over Allen if anything because of how I project them to be long term, one of them has already been to 2 SB's and has a ring obviously.

 

It's also probably debatable where Allen falls in the current bucket of guys like Murray/Prescott/Carr/Jackson/Tannenhill/etc who have all had similar productive seasons as Allen from 20/21.

 

Again it really boils down to if you believe Allen is the best QB in the league or will be in the next 3 or so years because that's how he was paid and the crux of my arguments.

[JohnNord]

7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

When Beane extended Josh last year it was the expectation that Jackson and Mayfield would also get an extension done before the start of the regular season.  That never happened and now those two franchises find themselves with a bit of a dilemma.

 

Despite being voted to the Pro Bowl again (and Jackson's team will beat that drum despite the fact he clearly doesn't deserve it), Jackson has had a down year in almost every category and has not been available due to injury for part of the second half of the season.  He hasn't played well enough to get a contract that is more lucrative than Allen's, but that is what they are going to be asking for and it will be tough for the Ravens as an organization to pay him less.

 

Baker has had a terrible season and is also down in almost every meaningful statistical category despite being on a team loaded with talent and behind one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.  No NFL QB has had more interceptions than Baker has in the last four years. He has evolved into a serviceable game managing QB.  In fairness, he has dealt with a non-throwing shoulder injury that muddies the water this year a bit.

 

Here are how the 3 QBs line up statistically this year through Week 17;

 

Josh Allen 2021 

Games Played; 16

Completions;  385

Passing Yards;  4,168

Comp %;  64.1

Passing TD's;  34

INT's;  15

Rushing Yards; 700

Average Per Rush;  6 yards

Rushing TD's;  6

Rushing 1st Downs;  51

 

Lamar Jackson 2021   -  Pro Bowl 

Games Played; 13 full games (knocked out early in game 14)

Completions;  246

Passing Yards;  2,882

Comp %;  64.4

Passing TD's;  16

INT's;  13

Rushing Yards;  767

Average Per Rush;  5.8 yards

Rushing TD's;  2

Rushing 1st Downs;  48

 

Baker Mayfield 2021

Games Played;  15

Completions;  237

Passing Yards;  2,825

Comp %;  62.4

Passing TD's;  15

INT's;  11

Rushing Yards;  118

Average Per Rush;  3.4 yards

Rushing TD's;  1

Rushing 1st Downs;  10

 

Looking at those stats and watching the arc of their careers, while Josh isn't putting up numbers as spectacular as last year, I think he has proven that the 2020 season was not an anomaly.  He is one of the top five QBs in the NFL by any measuring stick.  Lamar and Baker on the other hand have had a year of inconsistency where they have played worse than last year and both teams are unlikely to make the playoffs. 

 

The fact that neither franchise locked down Lamar and Baker before this season means that the organizations harbor some doubt about them and wasn't willing to commit long term no matter what they say publicly.  They kicked the can down the road a year and the question is now what do they do with the 2021 season in the bag?

 

1.)  Do they make them play out their 5th year options and see how they do before coming to the table? 

2.)  Do they play hardball and negotiate a contract less than what Allen got even though the cap is about to explode?

3.)  Do they go after a free agent QB and move on? 

4.)  Do they give them a contract on par or better than Allen's because the other options are unpalatable for various reasons?

5.)  Do they draft a QB and start over (slim pickings this year, especially at their likely draft spot)?

 

I think Lamar clearly has a stronger hand to play than Baker.   Both franchises are in a corner here.  The best thing for the Bills is for both franchises to overpay for their QB.  It's going to be one of the best storylines of the off season this year.  I've got my popcorn ready. 

 

I'm so glad the Bills aren't in that boat.

 

 

Signing Allen to the deal this summer was a very smart move by Beane.  Yes you can say his numbers are down a bit from last year, but they are in the ballpark.  Also, the offensive line is markedly worse than last season and Josh has been able to overcome it more time that not.  

I think both teams end up giving Lamar and Baker their 5th year and wait to make a decision.  Cleveland and Baltimore had a pretty bad season with injuries/COVID/OBJ so I think they may wait one more year 

[gobills404]

47 minutes ago, Doc said:

I guess he was really carrying the defense…

That's true motivating your defense is a super important trait for a QB. That's makes Brady the goat after all.

[Seventeen]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

Signing Allen to the deal this summer was a very smart move by Beane.  Yes you can say his numbers are down a bit from last year, but they are in the ballpark.  Also, the offensive line is markedly worse than last season and Josh has been able to overcome it more time that not.  

I think both teams end up giving Lamar and Baker their 5th year and wait to make a decision.  Cleveland and Baltimore had a pretty bad season with injuries/COVID/OBJ so I think they may wait one more year 

 

Reported on Twitter earlier today that Baker will be having the labrum repair surgery soon, but I'm not sure that will fix his current mindset and propensity to batted balls and turnovers. Might be best for him to get out from under the microscope in Cleveland. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I don't see these decisions as difficult.

 

Ravens will sign Lamar is a no-brainer, MVP, playoff caliber squad that was bit by the injury/covid bug this year

Browns will kick the can down the road for Baker because he was injured, they had a good year last year, don't need to pay him 40 mil this year

 

you also have to consider who replaces these guys!

 

[JGMcD2]

10 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It depends on what factors you are looking at, obviously if you are talking long term I'm not taking someone like Brady or Rogers whose careers are about to come to a close even though their body of work is what we aspire Allen to be.

 

But if we are talking current crop of young/mid career guys I'm at minimum taking Herbert, Mahomes, and Burrow over Allen if anything because of how I project them to be long term, one of them has already been to 2 SB's and has a ring obviously.

 

It's also probably debatable where Allen falls in the current bucket of guys like Murray/Prescott/Carr/Jackson/Tannenhill/etc who have all had similar productive seasons as Allen from 20/21.

 

Again it really boils down to if you believe Allen is the best QB in the league or will be in the next 3 or so years because that's how he was paid and the crux of my arguments.

Wait a minute? You’re doing two different things here. 
 

Burrow, Mahomes and Herbert you’re projecting out… but the rest you’re looking historically? Make it make sense. 

[SactoBillFan]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Jackson 16 TDs 13 Ints with his arm. 2 games over 300 yards.  2 games under 200 yards. 4 games with multiple INTs one of which was a 4 INT game against the Browns. 2 games out of 11 with more than 1 TD.  Great job carrying a team.  Allen is the QB that carried the team all year.  You're one of two things.  A complete idiot or a troll.  

The two aren't mutually exclusive.