Allen's numbers last 4 home games

[FilthyBeast]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Here are his last 4 home games:

 

11/21 v Indy: 21-35 60%  209 yds  2TD 2INT

 

12/6 v NE:  15-30 50% 145 yds 1TD 1INT

 

12/19 v Car: 19-34  55% 210 yds 3TD 1INT

 

1/2 v Atl:  11-26 42% 120 yds 0TD 3INT 

 

2 Wins 2 losses 

 

66-125  52% 

684 yards passing 

6 TDs 7 INTs 

 

Add the Pittsburgh game and you have just 3 games at home you can call solid performances thru the air - Washington Houston and Miami.   Worth noting it was windy v Washington and rainy v Houston.  

 

21 of his 35 passing TDs are on the road. 

 

8 of those 14 at home were in 3 games.

 

And 7 of his 15 INTs have been in those 4 home games. 

 

Maybe just fluky....but what are they doing to prep game week - are we worrying too much about the weather?  Why was he throwing so hard on some throws today that didn't need to be?    

 

And yes it's worth noting that 3 of those recent teams have good to great defenses.

 

Just really odd considering up to today he was probably a top 3 MVP candidate and still might be the numbers are there but the drop off here at home in December....odd.  

 

And yes....the weather plays A role. 

 

 

 

But maybe the bigger part of it is Josh is trying too hard to put on a show for the home crowd.  Forces too much.  Is not as patient as he is on the road - or is easier to get "in a zone" rather then too hyped by the home crowd - that might actually be something he still needs to figure out.  

 

I think if you look at Allen's career as a whole, he's been one of those QB's that's actually been better on the road than at home.

 

So whether it's the weather, anxiety playing in front of Bills mafia, etc that's obviously not what you would like to see 4 years into his career and to truly be an elite, perenial pro bowl QB he's going to have to start playing much better at home and consistent overall instead of following up elite performances with absolute clunkers which seems to have been very consistent so far in his career.

[HamptonBillsfan]

Josh's first instinct is to throw into tight windows with his incredible arm talent. Tips and deflections cause the high rate of turnovers in these bad weather games, but the good news is that Motor and Moss are running hard and holes are being opened. Now Dabol will scale back on empty set passing dominating the attack. With teams having to play the run, Josh will have more open throws. If we can win the turnover battle, I like our chances especially in decent weather venues. 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

I think Diggs should have caught it. The game analyst on the broadcast explained perfectly why Allen shouldn't have taken something off it and why Diggs should have caught it.

I just watched it again.  The announcers comments were utterly ridiculous.  Diggs scorched Terrell.  He was wide open and josh unnecessarily drilled that ball in there. If he threw the ball @ 1/2 the speed, it was an easy TD and no chance of anyone getting their hands on it.

 

rewatch it.  It’s obvious. 

[MJS]

Just now, NewEra said:

I just watched it again.  The announcers comments were utterly ridiculous.  Diggs scorched Terrell.  He was wide open and josh unnecessarily drilled that ball in there. If he threw the ball @ 1/2 the speed, it was an easy TD and no chance of anyone getting their hands on it.

 

rewatch it.  It’s obvious. 

I've watched it lots of times and I disagree with you. I think by this time it is best to just move on.

[ExiledInIllinois]

I say Bills should just lose to the Jets and play on the road in Foxborough!  They have much better weather than Orchard Park... 

 

...They're just a few minutes & seconds south latitude-wise.   😆🤣 

 

/sarcasm

Edited January 3, 2022 by ExiledInIllinois

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

I've watched it lots of times and I disagree with you. I think by this time it is best to just move on.

If you’ve watched that play lots of times and still conclude that josh needed to throw that ball THAT hard to get it in there….. it’s def time for you to move on.  He was WIDE OPEN. He smoked Terrell. 
 

Edit:  in reality, it makes me think that you haven’t watched it again, other than live.  

Edited January 3, 2022 by NewEra

[MJS]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

If you’ve watched that play lots of times and still conclude that josh needed to throw that ball THAT hard to get it in there….. it’s def time for you to move on.  He was WIDE OPEN. He smoked Terrell. 

Ok. You have a strong opinion on this for some reason and you are going to have to accept that others view it differently. These are not facts, they are opinions.

 

Call me dumb, insult my intelligence, or whatever you want. It doesn't change the fact that these are just opinions that we are arguing. And I think you are wrong. And lots of other people do too. But I'm sure there are plenty of others who agree with you. That's how opinions work.

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, MJS said:

Ok. You have a strong opinion on this for some reason and you are going to have to accept that others view it differently. These are not facts, they are opinions.

 

Call me dumb, insult my intelligence, or whatever you want. It doesn't change the fact that these are just opinions that we are arguing. And I think you are wrong. And lots of other people do too. But I'm sure there are plenty of others who agree with you. That's how opinions work.

I’m just completely baffled how anyone can watch that and say that josh HAD to throw the ball THAT hard in order to get it to Diggs. That’s all.  I have a general respect for your knowledge of the team and the game.  Hence why I don’t think you actually watched it several times.  It’s just so obvious that he didn’t have to throw the ball that hard.  Yes, I feel strongly about that.  

[Nextmanup]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

But maybe the bigger part of it is Josh is trying too hard to put on a show for the home crowd.  Forces too much.

I think this is the key; I have said this several places around this forum in the last week or 2.

I DO think Josh puts enormous pressure on himself at home and who knows, it may well have a negative impact on his game.

Don't ask me to quantify this one way or the other though.

 

But Josh does have an issue with this stuff, seemingly more than most do.  

 

Is he still vomiting before every single game?

 

 

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m just completely baffled how anyone can watch that and say that josh HAD to throw the ball THAT hard in order to get it to Diggs. That’s all.  I have a general respect for your knowledge of the team and the game.  Hence why I don’t think you actually watched it several times.  It’s just so obvious that he didn’t have to throw the ball that hard.  Yes, I feel strongly about that.  

I have watched it many times and I still disagree. That one I put on Diggs, but there were other throws that I agree Allen put too much on them.

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

I have watched it many times and I still disagree. That one I put on Diggs, but there were other throws that I agree Allen put too much on them.

I thought he threw it too hard, but reasonable minds can disagree. The larger issue is that early in that game, too many were coming out too fast. My view is that he may have been acting a little cocky after threading the needle on that early high-velocity throw to Davis. Davis got it it in his breadbasket, however, and didn't need to reach out. The pass thrown that resulted in the PI on Diggs at the goal line seemed to be thrown too hard as well (although it didn't matter). Anyway, it really is harder to catch a football in sub-freezing damp weather, and putting too much mustard on it only accentuates that problem.  

 

All in all, Allen looked like a guy who had been reading his own press clippings after the NE performance: reckless and a little arrogant. Hopefully next week he's a little more careful.

Edited January 3, 2022 by dave mcbride

[MJS]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought he threw it too hard, but reasonable minds can disagree. The larger issue is that early in that game, too many were coming out too fast. My view is that he may have been acting a little cocky after threading the needle on that early high-velocity throw to Davis. Davis got it it in his breadbasket, however, and didn't need to reach out. The pass thrown that resulted in the PI on Diggs at the goal line seemed to be thrown too hard as well (although it didn't matter). Anyway, it really is harder to catch a football in sub-freezing damp weather, and putting too much mustard on it only accentuates that problem. 

I just think Diggs needs to bring that in. Things happen so fast on the goal line. You don't know how long windows are going to be open. You don't know how long protection will hold up. You see a window, you fire. He hit Diggs in the hands. Diggs makes those catches 99/100 times.

 

It was weird, because Diggs almost seemed surprised the ball was there. He had to know the ball was coming to him and the likelihood of it being a quick pass was high, so I just think he should have been ready,the should have known it was coming hot, and the ball was accurate.

 

Now, if Diggs had to lay out for it or if the ball was behind him, sure, but it wasn't.

 

I think Diggs was probably feeling a bit sluggish due to the weather and his hands were cold, the ball was cold, and he wasn't mentally ready to catch it yet.

 

But I don't feel super strongly about this. Maybe Allen could have taken some off of it, but that particular situation on the goal line, the QB doesn't have time to sit there and consider how hard or lightly he needs to throw the ball. He just has to react in a split second and fire it in there for the TD.

 

I'm sure Diggs blames himself and Allen also blames himself. Oh well. Get it next time.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

and I can safely say that the Refs aided one and hindered the other.  😆 

 

[NewEra]

37 minutes ago, MJS said:

I have watched it many times and I still disagree. That one I put on Diggs, but there were other throws that I agree Allen put too much on them.

[billsfan1959]

32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought he threw it too hard, but reasonable minds can disagree. The larger issue is that early in that game, too many were coming out too fast. My view is that he may have been acting a little cocky after threading the needle on that early high-velocity throw to Davis. Davis got it it in his breadbasket, however, and didn't need to reach out. The pass thrown that resulted in the PI on Diggs at the goal line seemed to be thrown too hard as well (although it didn't matter). Anyway, it really is harder to catch a football in sub-freezing damp weather, and putting too much mustard on it only accentuates that problem.  

 

All in all, Allen looked like a guy who had been reading his own press clippings after the NE performance: reckless and a little arrogant. Hopefully next week he's a little more careful.

 

That seems like a lot to atttribute to Allen from a few throws in a football game....

[JaCrispy]

Josh has admitted he gets bored checking down...unfortunately, sometimes boring football moves the chains and wins games...

[BillsShredder83]

Anyone have a link to the missed pass to Diggs, I was a littl;e busy during the game and must have missed it. Cant find it, but keep seeing it referenced in multiple threads today

[Hebert19]

6 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Just want to reiterate that I have ZERO concerns about Josh currently or going forward - don't take my analysis of his last 4 home games as such.  

 

As many of you have pointed it, the combo of weather and opposing defense has been an issue - and the opposing QBs here this year have not played well either.

 

 

1.  He gets too hyped for home games - and we get over confident vs inferior competition 

 

2. And yes - the weather in Orchard Park is the worst historically in the NFL and this year its been on full display

 

 

 

This off season better be about finding elite Guards.  And a RB to supplant Singletary to RB 2. 

Let me help.  

 

2021 

Home rating - 85.8

Away rating - 99.4

 

2020

Home rating - 103

Away rating - 110.5

 

2019

Home rating - 76.9

Away rating - 92.6

 

If anyone can still argue against that then they are not living in reality.  

Edited January 3, 2022 by Hebert19

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Let me help.  

 

2021 

Home qbr - 85.8

Away qbr - 99.4

 

2020

Home qbr - 103

Away qbr - 110.5

 

2019

Home qbr - 76.9

Away qbr - 92.6

 

If anyone can still argue against that then they are not living in reality.  

QBR only goes up to 100. Do you mean passer rating?

[Hebert19]

Just now, MJS said:

QBR only goes up to 100. Do you mean passer rating?

Sorry.  Rating you are correct.