Allen's numbers last 4 home games

[billsfan1959]

49 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

10-6.   
 

The Bills are literally 4 plays away from being 14-2.  

 

Shhhh.... After spotting a team a safety and 3 turnovers, the Bills still beat them by two touchdowns and clinched a playoff spot.

 

This is no time to be positive...

[UKBillFan]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

DUDE….I SAID DIGGS SHOULD HAVE CAUGHT IT!!!  You are insinuating that because the commentators said Diggs should have caught it = josh shouldn’t have taken off some heat.  If he took off some heat…..he would have caught it….meaning that he should have taken off some heat. Of josh would be taken some off the throw, we wouldn’t be talking about Diggs should’ve caught it.  He would’ve. 
 

You’re opinion is just wrong.  And that’s ok.  Josh threw it too hard AND Diggs should’ve caught it.  

If Diggs should have caught it then surely the weight was ok? Yes, he could and possibly should have thrown it softer but it could be the subsequent adjustment threw him off his game and led to his poor passing for the rest of it.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

DUDE….I SAID DIGGS SHOULD HAVE CAUGHT IT!!!  You are insinuating that because the commentators said Diggs should have caught it = josh shouldn’t have taken off some heat.  If he took off some heat…..he would have caught it….meaning that he should have taken off some heat. Of josh would be taken some off the throw, we wouldn’t be talking about Diggs should’ve caught it.  He would’ve. 
 

You’re opinion is just wrong.  And that’s ok.  Josh threw it too hard AND Diggs should’ve caught it.  

 

Actually, the commentators said he shouldn't have taken anything off. Anyway, why the hell can you just not accept a differing opinion. Everything you just wrote is opinion, NOT FACT. You may be right or you may be wrong - the same as me. That is the nature of opinions.

 

My OPINION is he didn't need to take anything off that throw. That was on Diggs. You disagree and that's fine.

 

Let it go...dude

[Hebert19]

4 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Made a comment to my brother and friend that Josh seems jacked up at home and maybe needs a Xanax before games at home.  Maybe  the way we ran ball in second half and late in NE a game will make him realize that he doesn’t have to do it all and needs to take into account the weather.  Can’t be zipping balls to receivers when ball is wet and cold.  What amazed me yesterday was his first few passes hit the mark perfect but than it was balls going through receiver hands, flying high etc.

This.  He was throwing ropes in the cold which isn't gonna work.  Was waaay too fired up. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Actually, the commentators said he shouldn't have taken anything off. Anyway, why the hell can you just not accept a differing opinion. Everything you just wrote is opinion, NOT FACT. You may be right or you may be wrong - the same as me. That is the nature of opinions.

 

My OPINION is he didn't need to take anything off that throw. That was on Diggs. You disagree and that's fine.

 

Let it go...dude

 

I said you can have a different opinion.  Someone had the opinion that we should trade Mario Williams for John Skelton.  Id be retired if I had $10 for every bad opinion I’ve had over the years  Just because you have an opinion doesn’t mean that that opinion is correct.  It was wet and 20 degrees.  If he took some off the throw, it’s an easy TD.  That makes your opinion wrong. And again…..yes, Diggs could’ve caught the ball…..and would have if josh took some off.  
 

agree to disagree. 

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Actually, the commentators said he shouldn't have taken anything off. Anyway, why the hell can you just not accept a differing opinion. Everything you just wrote is opinion, NOT FACT. You may be right or you may be wrong - the same as me. That is the nature of opinions.

 

My OPINION is he didn't need to take anything off that throw. That was on Diggs. You disagree and that's fine.

 

Let it go...dude

An Opinion????  Take a look at what happens to me for stating an Opinion.....😜  Heck & sometimes I include stats to support them (to no avail)....

 

BTW agree with you....

[CincyBillsFan]

Weather is the main culprit the last couple of games. Match-ups also are an issue.  If you're going to look at trends you need at least two seasons IMO to come to any conclusion.

 

I went back and looked at some of Kelly's worst games during the 1988 - 1993 run and a lot of them were at Rich Stadium. And when I say bad games I'm talking about multi INT games with less then 200 yards passing. And Kelly didn't have the ability to take over a game with his running skills like Allen does.

 

Source: Sal Maiorana's Relentless.  I looked at 1988 & 1989 Rich Stadium games which is where I optimistically think the Bills are today:

 

1988:

week 1:  17 - 31 for 244 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT

week 2:  15 - 24 for 231 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT

week 8:  12 - 18 for 165 yards, 1 TD & 1 INT

week 10: 10 - 14 for 80 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT

week 12: 8 - 18 for 115 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT

week 15: 11 - 24 for 128 yards, 1 TD & 0 INT

week 17: 19 - 33 for 244 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT (playoff game)

 

1989:

week 2:  26 - 44 for 298 yards, 1 TD & 3 INT

week 14: 17 - 35 for 211 yards, 2 TD & 3 INT

 

Here's a few more:

1990

week 4: 18 - 34 for 167 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT

week 10: 5 - 15 for 79 yards, 0 TD & 0 INT

 

1991

week9: 14 - 28 for 237 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT

week 18: 13 - 25 for 117 yards, 0 TD & 2 INT (companionship game)

 

1992

week 5: 25 - 48 for 306 yards, 1 TD & 4 INT

week 11: 7 - 15 for 93 yards, 2 TD & 1 INT

week 13: 20 - 35 for 215 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT

week 14: 13 - 25 for 213 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT

 

1993

week 4: 14 - 25 for 142 yards, 1 TD & 1 INT

week 15: 20 - 31 for 256 yards, 0 TD & 2 INT

 

Kelly also had a lot of great games at home during the run.  But by my count Kelly played in 51 home games between 1988 - 1993 (including playoffs & games he missed due to injury).  And I didn't include the weird 1991 game against the Bengals at Rich Stadium where Kelly threw 3 INT's in the FIRST Quarter!  He did throw for 5 TD's in a win.

 

So by my count Kelly had 19 poor passing games in 51 home games played during the run.  In these 19 games he threw for 13 TD's & 30 INT.  And no one would suggest Kelly payed poorly at home.  It should also be noted that the Bills won most of these games - just like yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by CincyBillsFan

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

I said you can have a different opinion.  Someone had the opinion that we should trade Mario Williams for John Skelton.  Id be retired if I had $10 for every bad opinion I’ve had over the years  Just because you have an opinion doesn’t mean that that opinion is correct.  It was wet and 20 degrees.  If he took some off the throw, it’s an easy TD.  That makes your opinion wrong. And again…..yes, Diggs could’ve caught the ball…..and would have if josh took some off.  
 

agree to disagree. 

 

If you are equating my opinion that the throw was fine and Diggs should have caught it with the opinion that the Bills should have traded Mario Williams for John Skelton, then you are just being a dick. They are not anywhere close to being the same thing. If you cannot deal with someone disagreeing with your OPINION, perhaps you should just refrain from engaging with them.

 

Cheers

 

 

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

An Opinion????  Take a look at what happens to me for stating an Opinion.....😜  Heck & sometimes I include stats to support them (to no avail)....

 

BTW agree with you....

 

Very true, my firend 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

If you are equating my opinion that the throw was fine and Diggs should have caught it with the opinion that the Bills should have traded Mario Williams for John Skelton, then you are just being a dick. They are not anywhere close to being the same thing. If you cannot deal with someone disagreeing with your OPINION, perhaps you should just refrain from engaging with them.

 

Cheers

 

 

 

Very true, my firend 

I have one point.  Everyone is entitled their own opinion, whether the opinions are correct, incorrect or slathered in gray.  
 

I saw your opinion and I remarked on it on a message board. If you can’t handle people disputing your opinion, maybe you shouldn’t give your opinion.  Again, just because one has an opinion, it doesn’t mean that that said opinion is correct. 
 

Diggs dropped the ball because his reaction to the pass was too slow.  It was too slow, PARTLY because the ball was throw with too much velocity. Less velocity = more time to react and a TD

[Logic]

Honestly, going back through Allen's whole career, when I picture his best games as a pro, more have come on the road than at home.

I'd say the best home games of his career were the 2020 Rams and Seahawks games, and maybe the season finale against the Dolphins. He did some impressive stuff against the Colts in the playoffs last year, too, but that game doesn't jump out as a "career highlight game" for him, in my opinion.

Just about every other really impressive performance of his has been on the road.

Strange.

I DO think there's something to his getting a bit too hyped up in front of the home crowd. Calm Josh is deadly Josh. Hyper Josh is 2-turnover Josh.
 

[WotAGuy]

Apparently you don’t know who the f@$& Josh Allen is!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

I said yesterday on the GDT (or somewhere) whether finishing behind the Pats and having to go on the road may not be a bad thing. Jacksonville excluded, our away performances seem much better than those at home - narrow defeats to Titans and Bucs, which on a slip and dodgy officiating could have been two wins, plus comfortable victories over the Chiefs, Pats and, albeit injury strewn, Saints who still have an strong defense. When compare that to the home performances and we have the limp start to the season against Steelers, the low scoring loss to the Pats, being blown out by the Colts plus the figures above. 
 

But what’s changed from last year? Was the weather better? But it was hardly dreadful against the Steelers. We only lost one game all season at home in 2020, a nine point loss to the Chiefs. Something isn’t right this year in comparison so maybe a trip elsewhere wouldn’t be such a bad thing. I’ll cling onto that should the unthinkable happen next Sunday.

1. Allen and this Coaching Staff lost faith in the Offensive Line Game 1 this season. The Bills came out in 4 and 5 wide, and the line was collapsed, and from that point forward, the Bills haven't been nearly as aggressive. 

 

2. This Coaching Staff is holding the passing game back by insisting that Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders start and dominate snap count over Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. It's only because Sanders is hurt that the Bills finally got Gabe Davis on the field. Similarly, McKenzie slays the Patriots, and he's right back to 32% snap count behind old/slow Beasley a week later. When Daboll said earlier this year that Davis plays behind Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, I just shook my head. 

 

3. The Bills get nothing out of any Tight End other than Knox. The Bills have been a franchise that historically skimps at Tight End, and we don't have NFL caliber Tight Ends there other than Knox. 

 

4. Our play calling has been putrid at times this season. Insisting that Zack Moss be our Red Zone running back, no pre-snap motion, no slants, no bubble screens, the Josh designed runs come and go, and go and come. 

 

5. While the fumbles are down, Allen has regressed from 2020. 

[CincyBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

Honestly, going back through Allen's whole career, when I picture his best games as a pro, more have come on the road than at home.

I'd say the best home games of his career were the 2020 Rams and Seahawks games, and maybe the season finale against the Dolphins. He did some impressive stuff against the Colts in the playoffs last year, too, but that game doesn't jump out as a "career highlight game" for him, in my opinion.

Just about every other really impressive performance of his has been on the road.

Strange.

I DO think there's something to his getting a bit too hyped up in front of the home crowd. Calm Josh is deadly Josh. Hyper Josh is 2-turnover Josh.
 

The Rams & Seahawks games were two of the best games he's ever played in his career.  And IMO you seriously underrate the game Allen had at home in the payoffs against INDY.  378 total yards, all 3 Bills TD's and no TO's. 

 

Since Allen reached elite level in 2020 he has had 17 and a half home games (one half against Miami).  Of those I would say that 4 and a half were exceptional. AFC offensive player of the week caliber games (Rams, Seahawks, Colts in playoffs, Redskins and the half against Miami).  He also had very good games against the Jets, Texans, Carolina, LA Chargers & Pitt; he had good games against NE (2020), Miami (2021) & Ravens (playoff).  He had an average passing game against Pitt (2021) and poor passing games against KC (2020), Indy (2021), NE (2021) and Atlanta (but had a great rushing game),

 

 

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I saw your opinion and I remarked on it on a message board. If you can’t handle people disputing your opinion, maybe you shouldn’t give your opinion.  Again, just because one has an opinion, it doesn’t mean that that said opinion is correct. 

 

My point exactly. I wasn't the one being aggressive in declaring my opinon CORRECT and telling someone else his opinion was WRONG. That was you.

 

You can't really say that "because one has an opinion, it doesn’t mean that that said opinion is correct," and then go on to proclaim your OPINION to be correct and someone else's OPINION to be wrong. Or perhaps you just do not see the intellectual inconsistency in those two statements.

 

BTW, I wasn't the one who was having a problem with someone disputing my opinion. You need only look at our respective posts to see that.

 

Cheers

 

[Freddie's Dead]

We should see what the Texans want for Tuhrod Taylor.  He'd put up the same yardage numbers, but the INT's would be way down.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

I just rewatched the game from yesterday. What the passing stats might suggest isn't close to how Allen actually played in that game. 

 

He was still the best player on the field and an integral reason why they won.

 

As the Bills head into the playoffs, my concerns are not about Allen.

 

Still made some big money 3rd and long throws.  He zipped a few in there that were a bit too hot and were deflected.  Diggs dropped a TD.  The first INT was a dumb decision, 2nd was a miscommunication, and 3rd was another deflection.  The first one cannot be thrown - you just scramble for the 6 yards.  He had a blocker too so it could have even been a possible first.   The 2nd one he missed the safety bailing off diggs and had diggs for an easy 15.  3rd one was a great play by the spy.  After that i think they decided to just make them commit to stopping the run, and would hit them with PA checks if they brought the safeties down or committed to more effectively stopping the run - they did not.  

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Still made some big money 3rd and long throws.  He zipped a few in there that were a bit too hot and were deflected.  Diggs dropped a TD.  The first INT was a dumb decision, 2nd was a miscommunication, and 3rd was another deflection.  The first one cannot be thrown - you just scramble for the 6 yards.  He had a blocker too so it could have even been a possible first.   The 2nd one he missed the safety bailing off diggs and had diggs for an easy 15.  3rd one was a great play by the spy.  After that i think they decided to just make them commit to stopping the run, and would hit them with PA checks if they brought the safeties down or committed to more effectively stopping the run - they did not.  

 

Pretty much agree on all counts. He didn't have a good day passing the ball and the blame lies with him, the receivers, and the weather. However, he did make some key throws when he needed to and I don't get worked up over the interceptions as only one was really a questionable decision. His ability to make plays with his legs was integral in winning the game - and I really liked seeing an actual running game from someone other than Josh so that he didn't have to throw much in the second half (although he stiill did make some important plays throwing the ball).

 

All in all, I don't worry abot Allen going forward.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

1. Allen and this Coaching Staff lost faith in the Offensive Line Game 1 this season. The Bills came out in 4 and 5 wide, and the line was collapsed, and from that point forward, the Bills haven't been nearly as aggressive. 

 

2. This Coaching Staff is holding the passing game back by insisting that Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders start and dominate snap count over Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. It's only because Sanders is hurt that the Bills finally got Gabe Davis on the field. Similarly, McKenzie slays the Patriots, and he's right back to 32% snap count behind old/slow Beasley a week later. When Daboll said earlier this year that Davis plays behind Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, I just shook my head. 

 

3. The Bills get nothing out of any Tight End other than Knox. The Bills have been a franchise that historically skimps at Tight End, and we don't have NFL caliber Tight Ends there other than Knox. 

 

4. Our play calling has been putrid at times this season. Insisting that Zack Moss be our Red Zone running back, no pre-snap motion, no slants, no bubble screens, the Josh designed runs come and go, and go and come. 

 

5. While the fumbles are down, Allen has regressed from 2020. 

 

1 - Still only 26 sacks this year too with all the shuffling and a sack % of 4.1.  The run blocking has been the biggest concern, and it really does have to factor into what you can do.

 

2 - Beasley is money for first downs, and still a good player.  I'm not just benching him for Mckenzie - they both should have roles.  Sanders has been a disappointment tbh.  Mckenzie torched the patriots man coverage, and beasely is great against zone.  

 

3 - They have a good TE, why do they need 2 TE sets?  We mostly run 11. I'm not taking my 3rd WR out for a weak TE2.  Play to your strengths.

 

4 - The play calling has been suspect, but with a constantly shuffling line they have had to make changes and adjustments as the year went on.  They're also seeing a lot of man again so you have to adjust what you're doing.

 

5 - I think weather wise this has been a considerably worse season than last year.  Allens home numbers are worse than they were last year - but the bills pass def. numbers at home are absurdly good as well.   There's 5 games where they gave up under 20, and 2 others where it was low 20s and the Indy game where everything went off script.  The red zone struggles are probably overblown (8th in the NFL in TD%, and they lead the league in RZ Atts), and they're starting to get more effective at running the ball there which will help create some opportunities.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Pretty much agree on all counts. He didn't have a good day passing the ball and the blame lies with him, the receivers, and the weather. However, he did make some key throws when he needed to and I don't get worked up over the interceptions as only one was really a questionable decision. His ability to make plays with his legs was integral in winning the game - and I really liked seeing an actual running game from someone other than Josh so that he didn't have to throw much in the second half (although he stiill did make some important plays throwing the ball).

 

All in all, I don't worry abot Allen going forward.

 

5/6 on 4th downs over the last 3 games, and improved in the RZ the last few games too.  4/5 against carolina, 4/7 (5/7 if sanders catches that TD), and 4/5 against atlanta - 70%.  I also like how McDermott is starting to coach a bit more aggressively - there's a time and a place for it obviously but he's picking more spots after some head scratchers a few times this year.

[Big Blitz]

Just want to reiterate that I have ZERO concerns about Josh currently or going forward - don't take my analysis of his last 4 home games as such.  

 

As many of you have pointed out, the combo of weather and opposing defense has been an issue - and the opposing QBs here this year have not played well either.

 

 

1.  He gets too hyped for home games - and we get over confident vs inferior competition 

 

2. And yes - the weather in Orchard Park is the worst historically in the NFL and this year its been on full display

 

 

 

This off season better be about finding elite Guards.  And a RB to supplant Singletary to RB 2. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Big Blitz